Milkman
Footballguy
Well they did score 9 points heavily targeting Kelce. I don't know why they wouldn't want to keep featuring him like that.......
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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter amnesiac
- Start date
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I haven't gotten to watch that many KC games but with Hill's speed he should get a minimum of three bombs a game. At the very least he's a good bet to draw PI.
Oh wait....Alex Smith. Yeah...he is who we thought he was....
Oh wait....Alex Smith. Yeah...he is who we thought he was....
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Milkman
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
A list of players averaging more points per opportunity:
Switzer, Ryan DAL WR (R)
Seals-Jones, Ricky ARI TE (R)
Shaheen, Adam CHI TE (R)
Hollins, Mack PHI WR (R)
Butler, Brice DAL WR
Fuller, Will HOU WR
Robinson, Allen JAC WR
Howard, O.J. TBB TE (R)
Ginn Jr., Ted NOS WR
Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR (R)
Watkins, Sammy LAR WR
Fells, Darren DET TE
Richardson, Paul SEA WR
Fleener, Coby NOS TE
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR
Kroft, Tyler CIN TE
Golladay, Kenny DET WR (R)
Patterson, Cordarrelle OAK WR
Diggs, Stefon MIN WR
Hooper, Austin ATL TE
Stills, Kenny MIA WR
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
Benjamin, Travis LAC WR
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR
Cooks, Brandin NEP WR
Woods, Robert LAR WR
He's also only averaging 1.67 PPO if you take out punt returns, so if he got only more targets and rushes, he doesn't project as well as a bunch more guys that are outperforming him:
Amendola, Danny NEP WR
Kelce, Travis KCC TE
Ertz, Zach PHI TE
Jones, Marvin DET WR
Clay, Charles BUF TE
Hogan, Chris NEP WR
McDonald, Vance PIT TE
Green, A.J. CIN WR
Brate, Cameron TBB TE
Anderson, Robby NYJ WR
Davis, Vernon WAS TE
Wallace, Mike BAL WR
Tate, Golden DET WR
Doctson, Josh WAS WR
Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR
Henry, Hunter LAC TE
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
Brown, Antonio PIT WR
Everett, Gerald LAR TE (R)
Dayes, Matthew CLE RB (R)
Moncrief, Donte IND WR
Kearse, Jermaine NYJ WR
Kerley, Jeremy NYJ WR
O'Leary, Nick BUF TE
Hurns, Allen JAC WR
Adams, Davante GBP WR
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
Conley, Chris KCC WR
Graham, Jimmy SEA TE
Funchess, Devin CAR WR
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
Maclin, Jeremy BAL WR
Dickson, Ed CAR TE
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
Matthews, Rishard TEN WR
Benjamin, Kelvin BUF WR
Witten, Jason DAL TE
Thielen, Adam MIN WR
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE
Shepard, Sterling NYG WR
Reed, Jordan WAS TE
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
Matthews, Jordan BUF WR
Lewis, Roger NYG WR
James, Jesse PIT TE
Seferian-Jenkins, Austin NYJ TE
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Milkman
Footballguy
Oh ok i saw 128 yards + .7 TD then you add 6-7 catches and we're looking at 23+ points a game. This is all with a QB that doesn't fit all that great with Tyreek.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yes, but so would a few dozen others given the same opportunities you are gifting to Hill.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I’m feeling a dud game from hill today. Buffalo’s run defense has collapsed since they traded away Dareus. But their Pass defense is still pretty good. I’m feeling a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt, some Kelce, and a 3-6 30 yard game from hill.
Someone talk me off a ledge about this. I’m even considering swapping him out for Martavis Bryant.
Someone talk me off a ledge about this. I’m even considering swapping him out for Martavis Bryant.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Mahomes gonna in in this year at this rate. This offence is awful and has been for a few weeks. Can’t trust anyone right now.
This would require Andy Reid to do something bold. Not sure I can get behind any premise that depends on that...
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
This guy just isn't that valuable. Completely lacks consistency.
Milkman
Footballguy
It's funny when a RB that was top 6-7 in ypg last year that i told everybody to grab off the WW is your big gotcha moment on me. Yeah i think you should def continue to go against any of my advice. I'm sure you'd be quite successful at this game over the long run.voiceofunreason said:
They need to bench Smith. Noodle arm sucks.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Actually he has been completely and utterly consistent up until this past weekend, alternating great games with meh games. But I know what you meant -- consistently good. And that is really rare for any WR, let alone one on a team built on defense and the run and having an elite TE who causes way bigger mismatches in the passing game.IheartGuinness said:
Please stop the finger pointing. Smith isn't the Chief's shining gold answer but he is far from being the sole problem either -- he was having a banner first half of the year.
The Bills D -- a unit that has been up and down this year but undoubtedly talented -- utterly shut down both the run and the pass. This was more the Bills showing up to play than Smith being a terrible QB. And the Chiefs' woes rest on players on both sides of the ball, not just on Smith.
But he's a convenient scapegoat, I am sure.
Milkman
Footballguy
Wrong. With Smith at QB defenses only have to defend the first 15 yards past tge line of scrimmage. I'd argue tyreek is better than Cooks hell better than anybody in the league at taking the top off of defenses but Smith can't deliver him the ball down the field. All the short stuff would work better for tyreek if he was seen as a deep threat too but he's not with this QB.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Your opinion regarding a sliver of the overall picture -- Smith's long ball distribution -- bears nothing on the fact that Smith is not the sole reason holding Hill back.
Rather than throw out an uninformed "you're wrong" I find injecting some data and fact into the matter usually helps dispel erroneous opinions. Smith is #7 among QBs on yards per pass thrown. Even in today's high-octane protect-the-QB-from-being-disrupted offenses, passes of 15+ yards are simply not the norm. Alex Smith was never a deep passer with a cannon for an arm, but still his average of 7.8 is only half a yard less than the league leader, Watson.
FWIW, Smith also is 9th overall in net yards per pass play and has the 6th longest completion on the year at 78 yards. Even more to the point, Smith is 4th overall in passing completions (and had an amazing 142 QB rating on deep passes in the first 5 weeks before the team hit the skids), 9th in pass attempts and 10th in yards, and is highly efficient with the 2nd best completion rate in the NFL at 68.8%. He's having the best year of his career from a stats perspective.
That said, Smith has definitely hit a lull recently, though to address your faulty focus on just deep balls, the only area in which his numbers have remained good during the team's current losing streak is ironically in regards to the deep ball -- he still has the fourth-best passer rating on deep throws in this period and only trails Matthew Stafford in this regard for the entire season overall.
Can also agree if others say that a QBs play is most impactful in an offense's success or failure. And Smith clearly hasn't played as well as he had to open up the season. But neither had the entire team -- O and D. The Chiefs losing the last 5 of 6 is not just on Smith -- one prime suspect is that the O-line is way less effective in opening up the run game which affects the entire offense's success, and they have been less effective in keeping a clean pocket against the pass rush.
With all due respect, while Smith and the Chiefs are definitely the opposite of who they were when they were undefeated (with talk of Smith potentially being MVP and an undefeated team looking like the cream of the AFC crop), the problem with Hill seems to stem from the consistently way-too-high unrealistic expectations you continue to express in this thread, without taking a good dose of reality along with those expectations.
No WR is so consistent that they garner you 20 fantasy points a game, despite how hard you wish it was so. Even with the team's current woes, Hill is still Top 13 overall in standard and PPR (Top 10 in my league's PPR scoring) so still a WR1. He only has 9 less targets than Kelce on the year so he's getting is fair (and normal) share of the distro.
Hill has always been a boom/bust player but have no question in my mind that he's still an every week starter as he's netted me an average of 12.74 points per game during this horrendous 1-5 run since week 6, and 14.22 avg ppg this season so far. I can't leave that potential production on my bench, but can certainly understand if owners want to sit him in unfavorable match ups if you have better options until the Chiefs turn it back around (and I think they will, given the opportunity they have in the division and the talent they have on both sides of the ball).
Adjust your expectations accordingly.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
While the Jets mostly contained the Panthers passing game, overall they have been middling against the pass this year, having allowed their last 5 previous opponents to top 250 yards, with 3 of those teams netting more than 285 yards. Going into the Panther game, the Jets also allowed 33 completions of 20+ yards, third-most in the league.
That may suit Hill on longer bombs, but the Jets have been especially porous against the TE position so wouldn't be surprised to see the script rely more heavily on targeting Kelce.
I'm starting him as other options are less dependable (Hogan, Parker, Cooper likely out), but for you I think the choice is more between Hill and Crowder. The Chiefs have been struggling against the pass so can see Anderson potentially having a good game, but I think in terms of opportunity and floors, Hill and Crowder look like they can net 5 or 6 catches for 70+ yards, while I see Anderson's floor a little lower at around 4 catches for ~60.
Crowder may be the safer bet in a tough divisional match up if you don't think the Chiefs can start a turnaround against a middling but exploitable Jets pass D.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
If the Chiefs continue to slide, maybe. Until then, given the way this team started, I can't see Reid turning the team over to the rookie at this point with the division really wide open for the taking.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah Smith is a real threat to beat teams deep lol. He's not and he's killing this team. If Tyreek was targeted like Brown or even Thielen he would be a threat to score 20 ppg. the 2 WR averaging 20+ ppg are getting 11+ targets a game. Tyreek is at 7. Tyreek is averaging 2 points per target sooooo if he got force fed the ball like Brown or Hopkins it's not unreasonable to expect he would produce 20 points a game or close to it and that's with Smith who despite your stats has never been good throwing down the field.
Milkman
Footballguy
Smith has to unleash the dragon. He looks at Hill, if Hill is more than 15 yards down the field, Smith's butthole puckers up and he pulls it downs scrambles for 2 yards. It sucks because I thought Smith was given a bad wrap and I thought Tyreek would really help him but Tyreek can't help Smith if Smith doesn't trust him. I could def see Kelce getting way more targets than Hill again and KC looking like poop offensively. Keeping everything in front of the defense is so much easier to defend.
I agree Hill's season hasn't been a total loss and he's still producing but despite your misleading stats Smith is def holding him back. Can't wait to see Hill with Pat Mahomes. KC will be worse because of the additional turnovers but the kid will hopefully take some chances down the field and they should throw more.
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I lost you here with the point you are trying to make. Hill isn't on the Steelers or the Texans. He's on a run-first, traditionally conservative offense. There are only so many balls thrown on this team given the schemes and scripts they institute and stats show he is getting jpretty much as many looks as Kelce, with all other receivers paling in comparison in terms of usage, targets, etc.
I am sure if Hill was on the '99 Rams, the '07 Pats, the '11 Saints, or other high powered passing offenses of yore, he could get closer to what you apparently want to see.
But he's not.
Also note that over the last 15 years, we've seen some of the most dominant WRs in fantasy -- Moss in '03 and '07, Megatron in '11, Antonio Brown in '14 and '15, Julio in '15, even guys like Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith in '14 and '15. Every single one of these WRs (and indeed all WRs since '02) have not topped 18 FPG/game. Expecting 20 PPG is completely divorced from reality.
Feel free to continue to ignore reality in terms of the offense Hill is on, his abilities, and his situation. Continue to ignore stats. I can't really help with willful ignorance.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
He's got a QB that shrinks from the big play UNLESS it's so wide open Steven Hawking could hit him. It's not what you think.
Milkman
Footballguy
My point was you said he's not capable of scoring 20 ppg. I said if he was targeted like the two WR who are "currently" averaging 20ppg he would be right there with them. As far as the passing stats you provided ATL WR Sanu is 6-6 for 228 yards and 3 TD's. His QB rating is 158.3. He has a 73 yard TD pass. Should he start in front of Smith? Is he the best deep ball passer in the history of the NFL?
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I do think you have to point the finger at Smith as far as fantasy goes. Smith does not target his WR's in the RedZone. Kelce has 13. This year, Hill has TWO!! And if you look back at Smith's resume, he went the entire 2014 season with ZERO touchdowns to WR's. Smith is just not good for WR fantasy value, and I think a lot of that is directly tied to TD production and RZ targets. I'm happy with Hill's trend of getting double digit targets as of late, but c'mon. There is something inherently wrong with that void in RZ targets for a quick twitch receiver like Hill. Here is a link if you want to compare QB redzone passing. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-passing.htm
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Thanks for the link, interesting stats.
My point about Smith isn't that he's blameless -- a lot of the Chiefs' slide over the last 6 weeks are due to his ineffectiveness. My point is that it's not the only story, given the regression to a more conservative game script, the failure of the O-line to play up to the level they had earlier this season, etc. Plenty of fingers to be pointed here, to be sure.
Is it that Smith doesn't pass to WRs in the RZ, or do the stats more underlie the fact that a 6'5 255lb highly effective soft handed TE who is a match up nightmare is simply a better RZ target than a 5'10 185lb receiver?
steelers1080
Footballguy
Is the consensus that Mahomes will be better for Hill whenever he starts? I didn't see much of him in college, is he a gunslinger? I know he has a huge arm, but is he accurate?
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Thought about that, but look at other teams with dominant RZ TE's: NE - Gronk (16) and Cooks and Hogan still have 7 and 11 RZ targets respectively; MN - Rudolph (12), Diggs (7); SEA- Graham (23) WOW Paul Richardson (10) and Lockett (6) ..........and just to throw him in, Antonio Brown has 17. Can't prove a negative, so with only 2 targets, who knows how effective Hill can be with more RZ looks.
I imagine with smaller WR, it comes down to the QB "throwing the WR open" and depending on the WR to be where he is supposed to be. I just don't see that with Smith. He won't take shots at small target windows like Rodgers, Brady, or Big Ben will do. In other words, Smith seems reluctant to trust the WR to win, which also correlates to his low turnover rate.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Hm, interesting comparisons. Was thinking that all of these WRs except for Brown (I know he's 5'10) are likely above 6 ft, and it turns out both Lockett (5'11) and Cooks (5'10) are not. Cooks actually has similar measurements to Hill. Good thoughts.chad in Indy said:
The Jacket
Footballguy
I guess there's gonna be some polar opposite reactions in here. (Although to be fair, you really shouldn't bench this guy, even if you know he can completely disappear.)
4-140-2 with time to play and trailing.
4-140-2 with time to play and trailing.
tombonneau
Footballguy
He'll probably be back to top 3 in my .5ppr return yards leagueMilkman said:
steelers1080
Footballguy
He could be a top 5 guy with Mahomes if he's the gunslinger he appears to be. Even if he throws 3 INTs a game, if he consistently throws a semi-accurate deep ball, HIll would feast. Smith finally got back to what he did early in the season, throw down field.Milkman said:
TartanLion
Footballguy
Just got to play him every week because things like this will happen and are liable to happen at any moment
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
30.5 points standard. Wow. He just earned me a bye week. I drafted him as a WR1 and don't regret it after going RB/RB/RB in the first three rounds.
Paired with Thielen, who I grabbed in the tenth. Two WR league with FLEX.
Lovin' it.
Can't have this guy out of your lineup.
Unless...
Gordon.
Paired with Thielen, who I grabbed in the tenth. Two WR league with FLEX.
Lovin' it.
Can't have this guy out of your lineup.
Unless...
Gordon.
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