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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (9 Viewers)

How about a tavon Austin comparison? That one seems fair. I'm trying to think of a player used like this. Woodhead? Antwan randle-el? Hester? Can't think of too many full time gadget guys over the years. I think he gets compared to Patterson and the likes because they are dangerous return men that can take it in from anywhere, but hill was able to carve out a role. 

My biggest worry about hill (on the field) is the talent around him. Maclin was banged up, ware lost effectiveness, things like that may have led to more opportunity, but what happens if they draft a rb early? Will hill still get 5 carries a game? I don't think he's a slam dunk wr2. I think most of the guys who have had a similar role havent been able to sustain it. 

 
dipandglide said:
If he sees 100+ targets he'll easily be a wr2+. Smith's skill set fits perfect with Hill's in that he can get him the ball within 10-15 yds of the LOS. We all saw what happens when he gets the ball in his hands...
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He had 83 targets last season. Move to 115-120 seems within reason. 

 
Stinkin Ref said:
As I've said I'm not a huge fan of comparing guys and I hope the group think continues to think he is next years version of _______. I've never really understand that being a factor in where you draft a guy.  "I'm going to pass on Player B cause last year Player X did not live up to the expectations."  What Lockette did or didn't do last year should have nothing to do with whether you draft Hill or not.

If Lockette would have went off last year, does that mean you would bump Hill up in your rankings?

To me they really have nothing to do with each other.  If you are going to think Hill is going to regress....fine....but it should be based on  something a little stronger than what the hell Lockette did (or didn't do). 
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Not sure what you're talking about. Lockette's lingering injury last year has *everything* to do with Hill.  :cool:

 
Snorkelson said:
How about a tavon Austin comparison? That one seems fair. I'm trying to think of a player used like this. Woodhead? Antwan randle-el? Hester? Can't think of too many full time gadget guys over the years. I think he gets compared to Patterson and the likes because they are dangerous return men that can take it in from anywhere, but hill was able to carve out a role. 
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Tyreek is more than a gadget player. I've never seen Austin do this:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap3000000725900/Can-t-Miss-Play-Tyreek-Hill-leaps-for-acrobatic-38-yard-TD-catch

 
not really sure who to compare him to and there may be a reason for that.....might be a reason that most teams are trying to find "their own Tyreek Hill" this year.....seems pretty much every team is saying "we need to find a guy like that".....I know that's the case here in Colorado with the Broncos.....Hill was in many ways responsible for KC beating DEN both times last year and now local radio, media, etc. is clamoring for them to find a similar player....some think McCaffrey ....I'm not sold on that but some are....

bottom line I think his snaps and accompanying touches will bump up significantly and I don't think he is gadgety or special teams/long TD dependant....I do however think his rushing attempts are a pretty big factor and I expect those to see a bump....even in the red zone...

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
Fair enough.... I guess my point really is why is he being compared to a guy like Lockett who disappointed instead of a guy that didn't disappoint....?...why do the comparisons seem to be with guys like Lockett, Patterson, etc....instead of WR2 types that back up a strong year with another strong year....I guess I'll answer my own question....I guess it's because people are mistakenly labeling this guy as a gadget player for some reason.....special team TD dependent or something..but if you really watch his game, its really not about all that....
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Lockett is the best comp for me, but that says nothing about Hill's outlook for this season. I mean we don't even know how Lockett will turn out, so not sure how anyone can project his success/or lack thereof on Hill.

 
it's like there is this group think thing that for some reason we have to look at what he did as fluky....or lucky....we have to discount it in some way for some reason....what he did, it wasn't "traditional"...so it scares people....long TD's scare people cause they don't think they are sustainable....cause there is NO WAY that could ever happen again....I can understand that to a certain extent....but with the skill set that Hill brings, he is more than just a take the top off the defense on a pass play every once in awhile type of guy....he's more than a long TD guy....actually looking forward to see how they use him more in the running game...

 
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tombonneau said:
That whole top 10 was  :thumbup:

Too funny that nearly all of them are him killing other AFC West teams haha. Poor division.
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My poor man's Waldman: A crease + speed then pursuit angle gets dim.  

Other than to jam him at the line (send him in motion instead and if he gets loose you are toast) I'm not sure what his kryptonite is. I'd double move the firetruck out of his cover corner all day. He *should* get max offense snaps in 17 and dial back on his ST, but flipping the field on returns seems a price to pay until punters just kick it OOB. Bracket double cover is all I got and Kelce is single covered. 

 
Stinkin Ref said:
it's like there is this group think thing that for some reason we have to look at what he did as fluky....or lucky....we have to discount it in some way for some reason....what he did, it wasn't "traditional"...so it scares people....long TD's scare people cause they don't think they are sustainable....cause there is NO WAY that could ever happen again....I can understand that to a certain extent....but with the skill set that Hill brings, he is more than just a take the top off the defense on a pass play every once in awhile type of guy....he's more than a long TD guy....actually looking forward to see how they use him more in the running game...
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I traded him this off season so I guess I fall into the group think that you describe.  I don't doubt his talent.  I just have doubts that Reid will continue to find creative ways to get him involved once other teams start to adjust.  And they will adjust, even if we don't know how, because they always do.  Does Reid have more tricks up his sleeve or will he resort to using his best player as a decoy? 

But with all that said I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the next step and becomes a super star in this league.  

 
I like the last two posts because they address a couple of the things that kind of really matter instead of really trying to compare Hill to somebody, etc....

1. how do you....how will.....defenses try to stop/account for him

2. how does Reid adjust to #1

 
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I commented in one of the draft threads in the Mock Draft Forum that I thought Hill's value to people would be all over the map....I guess at some point it will settle, and then I guess it really comes down to who would you take instead....and his upside/play making ability, even on limited snaps, would make it hard for me to pass on him and take what many would consider the "safer" pick...below is a list of the top 50 ranked WR's at a site with mock drafts that incorporate rankings from some of the "experts" in the field....the rankings do not include rookies, which will change things a little bit....as an initial average of these experts they have him ranked as WR35....but I can tell you there is at least 1-2 of the experts (maybe more) who have him much higher than that because when you run the mock draft simulator and participate in a draft, he ends up going off the board much higher than WR35 as the mock pretends the "experts" are in the draft with you...which is part of why I comment about it "only taking one owner"....the auto draft for the other teams doesn't just go straight down the list below....Hill often comes off the board before many of the guys ranked higher than him below...depending on your league scoring I think you could make a case for him starting anywhere from about 17 on...

1. Antonio Brown PIT
2. Julio Jones ATL
3. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
4. Mike Evans TB
5. A.J. Green CIN
6. Jordy Nelson GB
7. Dez Bryant DAL
8. Michael Thomas NO
9. T.Y. Hilton IND
10. Amari Cooper OAK
11. Keenan Allen LAC
12. DeAndre Hopkins HOU
13. Alshon Jeffery PHI
14. Doug Baldwin SEA
15. Brandin Cooks NE
16. Demaryius Thomas DEN
17. Davante Adams GB
18. Sammy Watkins BUF
19. Allen Robinson JAC
20. Jarvis Landry MIA
21. Julian Edelman NE
22. Michael Crabtree OAK
23. Golden Tate DET
24. Terrelle Pryor WAS
25. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
26. Emmanuel Sanders DEN
27. Jamison Crowder WAS
28. Stefon Diggs MIN
29. Donte Moncrief IND
30. Brandon Marshall NYG
31. Eric Decker NYJ
32. Kelvin Benjamin CAR
33. Jordan Matthews PHI
34. Rishard Matthews TEN
35. Tyreek Hill KC
36. DeSean Jackson TB
37. Willie Snead NO
38. Randall Cobb GB
39. Pierre Garcon SF
40. Corey Coleman CLE
41. Cameron Meredith CHI
42. Jeremy Maclin KC
43. Tyrell Williams LAC
44. Devante Parker MIA
45. Sterling Shepard NYG
46. Adam Thielen MIN
47. Kenny Britt CLE
48. John Brown ARI
49. Kevin White CHI
50. Marvin Jones DET

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
I commented in one of the draft threads in the Mock Draft Forum that I thought Hill's value to people would be all over the map....I guess at some point it will settle, and then I guess it really comes down to who would you take instead....and his upside/play making ability, even on limited snaps, would make it hard for me to pass on him and take what many would consider the "safer" pick...below is a list of the top 50 ranked WR's at a site with mock drafts that incorporate rankings from some of the "experts" in the field....the rankings do not include rookies, which will change things a little bit....as an initial average of these experts they have him ranked as WR35....but I can tell you there is at least 1-2 of the experts (maybe more) who have him much higher than that because when you run the mock draft simulator and participate in a draft, he ends up going off the board much higher than WR35 as the mock pretends the "experts" are in the draft with you...which is part of why I comment about it "only taking one owner"....the auto draft for the other teams doesn't just go straight down the list below....Hill often comes off the board before many of the guys ranked higher than him below...depending on your league scoring I think you could make a case for him starting anywhere from about 17 on...

1. Antonio Brown PIT
2. Julio Jones ATL
3. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
4. Mike Evans TB
5. A.J. Green CIN
6. Jordy Nelson GB
7. Dez Bryant DAL
8. Michael Thomas NO
9. T.Y. Hilton IND
10. Amari Cooper OAK
11. Keenan Allen LAC
12. DeAndre Hopkins HOU
13. Alshon Jeffery PHI
14. Doug Baldwin SEA
15. Brandin Cooks NE
16. Demaryius Thomas DEN
17. Davante Adams GB
18. Sammy Watkins BUF
19. Allen Robinson JAC
20. Jarvis Landry MIA
21. Julian Edelman NE
22. Michael Crabtree OAK
23. Golden Tate DET
24. Terrelle Pryor WAS
25. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
26. Emmanuel Sanders DEN
27. Jamison Crowder WAS
28. Stefon Diggs MIN
29. Donte Moncrief IND
30. Brandon Marshall NYG
31. Eric Decker NYJ
32. Kelvin Benjamin CAR
33. Jordan Matthews PHI
34. Rishard Matthews TEN
35. Tyreek Hill KC
36. DeSean Jackson TB
37. Willie Snead NO
38. Randall Cobb GB
39. Pierre Garcon SF
40. Corey Coleman CLE
41. Cameron Meredith CHI
42. Jeremy Maclin KC
43. Tyrell Williams LAC
44. Devante Parker MIA
45. Sterling Shepard NYG
46. Adam Thielen MIN
47. Kenny Britt CLE
48. John Brown ARI
49. Kevin White CHI
50. Marvin Jones DET
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I did a start up(12 team PPR, 1RB 2WR 3Flex) a week after the Superbowl and he went WR33.  Before Fitzgerald, Crowder, Decker and Rishard Matthews on your list, but after Shepard and Doctson.  As far as I know, I was the only "expert" in the draft :D .

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
I like the last two posts because they address a couple of the things that kind of really matter instead of really trying to compare Hill to somebody, etc....

1. how do you....how will.....defenses try to stop/account for him

2. how does Reid adjust to #1
Click to expand...


Considering the disadvantage that DEF have re: WRs, it's a must to slow him down/knock him off route at the LOS. His kind of speed will tilt coverage, but at a scheme cost. Line Hill up all over and run every route in the tree would be my response. Trips, backfield, slot, sweeps, have him in motion, anywhere that is legal. Usage-wise, I'd guess that he settles in the slot for a majority of his snaps, but that's an opinion. Seeing some of his plays the part that jumps out is that he just erases pursuit angles. TDs are not predictable, invest in his skill. This is not a gimmick formation-based success like the Wildcat, this is simply an ascending player that has upside to burn as long as long as he is utilized to the max. 

 
Hankmoody said:
Polls like that don't catch outliers though, and Tyreek is outlier central.  "It only takes one" can't happen in those polls, so it might be more accurate to see when someone put him in the Other vote.  
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Tyreek Hill was added by an Other vote in the poll for the #39th overall player and received 3 immediate votes.  In the polls since he has received (in order)  1,3,3,4,8 & 9 votes.

In the current vote he is running 2d with 6 votes, but that is with only 40 total votes.  Under the theory of it only takes one, you can safely assume that Hill will be taken by the 42d pick and that about one in 6 owners believe he is worth more than the 1.7 pick in this rookie draft.  [In a 12 team league that means there are two owners that would happily give you 1.7 for Hill.]

Before I started the polls, I said that I thought Hill's value would settle down to somewhere between 1.5 and 1.9.  Hill was added by the Other button and got 3 immediate votes in the poll right after 1.5 was taken and he currently has a lead on pick 1.7, and although things change I think it is pretty safe to say that he will be off the board well in advance of 1.8 and would dominate over 1.9.

I seldom get this lucky in my predictions, so I had to point this one out.

 
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Tackling Dummies said:
Considering the disadvantage that DEF have re: WRs, it's a must to slow him down/knock him off route at the LOS. His kind of speed will tilt coverage, but at a scheme cost. Line Hill up all over and run every route in the tree would be my response. Trips, backfield, slot, sweeps, have him in motion, anywhere that is legal. Usage-wise, I'd guess that he settles in the slot for a majority of his snaps, but that's an opinion. Seeing some of his plays the part that jumps out is that he just erases pursuit angles. TDs are not predictable, invest in his skill. This is not a gimmick formation-based success like the Wildcat, this is simply an ascending player that has upside to burn as long as long as he is utilized to the max. 
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Agreed.  The thing about Hill is that he does not have the typical jitterbug failing of lateral fakes.  He is always moving forward and shifts laterally without losing speed.

While he is dangerous in the slot, he may be the most difficult to defend coming out of the backfield.  He is the quintessesntial 3rd down back in that defenses have to fear the delayed handoff on 3rd and long... on other teams it is a conservative play to avoid a bad situation becoming worse... for Hill it is a legitimate attempt to get the 1st down.  He hits full speed by his 3rd step and as I mentioned above, he shifts laterally without losing speed or forward momentum.  Not to mention the 3rd down screen passes that now threaten to become home runs.  From week 6 on he averaged 13 yards per rush.  

Even if you remove the two monster runs of 68 and 70 yards he still averaged 7.1 yards per rush.  He reminds me a lot of Barry Sanders in that either you get him behind the line of scrimmage or you give up a chunk of yards.  He had 24 rushing attempts last year.  Of the 24 a full third (8) were for negative yardage.  Of the remaining 16, only 2 were for less than 5 yards.  

People want to label him gimmicky because of the long runs, but I suggest you look deeper.  The guy averaged 11.1 yards per rush despite a third of his rushes being for negative yardage.  It is not a question of if he will break a long run, but merely if you will give him the necessary rushes... if he gets 3 rushes in a game, one of them will be for 20 yards or more.  If you give him 6 rushes, than two of them will exceed 20 yards.

Combining rushing and receiving, Hill averaged over 10 yards per touch on 85 touches.  Hill was a strong player even without the long plays or the return game... but adding either in and he was top 25 overall when given the opportunity.  Add both in and he was elite.

HUGE SIDE NOTE:  Hill's kryptonite as a receiver is the cold.  It looks like he only played two games where the average temperature was below 40 degrees:  December 18th and December 25th.  

In those two games he was targeted 8 total times but had no catches and no yards.  Catch Rate 0% with 0 yards per target 

In the other 14 games he was targeted 75 times with 61 catches and 593 yards.  Catch Rate 81.3% with 7.9 yards per target.

 
Brisco54 said:
Agreed.  The thing about Hill is that he does not have the typical jitterbug failing of lateral fakes.  He is always moving forward and shifts laterally without losing speed.

While he is dangerous in the slot, he may be the most difficult to defend coming out of the backfield.  He is the quintessesntial 3rd down back in that defenses have to fear the delayed handoff on 3rd and long... on other teams it is a conservative play to avoid a bad situation becoming worse... for Hill it is a legitimate attempt to get the 1st down.  He hits full speed by his 3rd step and as I mentioned above, he shifts laterally without losing speed or forward momentum.  Not to mention the 3rd down screen passes that now threaten to become home runs.  From week 6 on he averaged 13 yards per rush.   
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Speaking of screens, who do you assign to Hill lining up (4 WR/1 TE) in the backfield on 3rd and whatever yards? OLB? He fakes a handoff, releases on a slant/dig/post route and you'd better have a hand on his jersey.  Run all routes the opposite direction just for fun. It's not '17 that I'd expect his breakout, it's '18 after a full season of elevated PT, not tick tick boom, but a 25-30 degree line from '16 to '18.   

I am not a Tyreek Hill owner. 

 
Matt Harmon is working on a reception perception for this guy. Should be interesting.

 
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JackReacher said:
Matt Harmon is working on a reception perception for this guy. Should be interesting.
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He's probably going to do horribly since about 1/2 or more of his value was on rushes or returns.  That said, just because he was mainly used one way doesn't mean he can't run more routes in the future.

 
So, Pat Mahomes II.  Does this significantly raise Hill's value?  He's an incredible deep threat, who as soon as next year could be paired with a QB who has a cannon for an arm...

 
steelers1080 said:
So, Pat Mahomes II.  Does this significantly raise Hill's value?  He's an incredible deep threat, who as soon as next year could be paired with a QB who has a cannon for an arm...
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Probably not. Even first round QBs have like a 50-50 shot at being total busts. So if you account for the chance Mahomes is Favre and the chance Mahomes is Manziel basically average themselves out to middle of the road- aka Alex Smith level play.

 
Tyreek Hill will take over as the Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver following Jeremy Maclin's release.

It's a big boost to Hill's fantasy outlook, both from a floor and ceiling standpoint. Hill's playing time and usage were highly inconsistent with Maclin on the field last year. When Maclin returned from a four-week absence for the final month of last season, Hill failed to catch a pass in two of the Chiefs' last four games. A risky WR3/flex option pre-Maclin release, Hill should now be treated as a WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside.
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with Maclin being cut Hill is now in the Crabtree-Landry-Demaryius range for sure. I may actually target him now.

 
He will be special... the Maclin drop only confirms that they are really comfy with Tyreek and why wouldn't they be  :thumbup:

 
JackReacher said:
6.3 is a steal. Nice work
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Thanks.  Truth is, I wasn't completely sold on the guy.  But I remember going down the home stretch in some leagues last year where I was gunning for glory, and I remember thinking I don't want to face the team with Tyreek Hill on it.  Not because he was consistent last year, but because he had the abilbity to put up crazy numbers any week.

I think he is more consistent this year, and that was enough for me.

 
Caesar said:
Thanks.  Truth is, I wasn't completely sold on the guy.  But I remember going down the home stretch in some leagues last year where I was gunning for glory, and I remember thinking I don't want to face the team with Tyreek Hill on it.  Not because he was consistent last year, but because he had the abilbity to put up crazy numbers any week.

I think he is more consistent this year, and that was enough for me.
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Yep. Dynamic playmaker x expected spike in usage = tons of upside at 6.3

 
I don't think that this really changes anything in terms of how people value Tyreek. You're either on board or you're not. Pretty much the entire dynasty community has been lazily saying sell this guy all offseason because "gadget player" and he won't get enough volume in the KC offense because it's KC/Alex Smith and also Maclin will be back. Now Maclin is gone and for many, he's an even bigger sell now because of the increased hype now that he's the assumed #1. I'm seeing more excitement about Conley and even people saying go pick up Chesson in dynasty because people want the sleeper, rather than the stud staring in them in the face because he doesn't fit what they think of as an elite NFL WR.

For those of us who already thought Tyreek was undervalued and has WR1 upside this year, Maclin's departure is a nice bonus, but I suspect his role was going to increase at the expense of Maclin anyway.

 
RushHour said:
I don't think that this really changes anything in terms of how people value Tyreek. You're either on board or you're not. Pretty much the entire dynasty community has been lazily saying sell this guy all offseason because "gadget player" and he won't get enough volume in the KC offense because it's KC/Alex Smith and also Maclin will be back. Now Maclin is gone and for many, he's an even bigger sell now because of the increased hype now that he's the assumed #1. I'm seeing more excitement about Conley and even people saying go pick up Chesson in dynasty because people want the sleeper, rather than the stud staring in them in the face because he doesn't fit what they think of as an elite NFL WR.

For those of us who already thought Tyreek was undervalued and has WR1 upside this year, Maclin's departure is a nice bonus, but I suspect his role was going to increase at the expense of Maclin anyway.
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I agree. Maclin was not much of a factor last year and now Tyreek will receive more attention from the defense. The only positive I see is that KC felt comfortable enough to let Maclin go which translates into they must be happy with what they have. Maybe they are making room for Josh Gordon?....hahaha

 
I always find it comical when people downgrade one players bump up the depth chart by saying (yeah but they will be covered by a better CB). 

He will be a starter.  Was part time last year and was phenomenal.   You can't teach speed and elusiveness. Plan accordingly.

 
this may keep him from kick and punt returns which is what made him such a value. i'm hoping that his snaps increase but balanced across the board. he doesn't need to get WR1 targets exclusively to be valuable or effective in that offense,

 
SteelerMurf said:
I always find it comical when people downgrade one players bump up the depth chart by saying (yeah but they will be covered by a better CB). 

He will be a starter.  Was part time last year and was phenomenal.   You can't teach speed and elusiveness. Plan accordingly.
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You find rational thought comical?  I guess that speaks for itself.

You admit that he was a part time player last year and performed well, yet you dismiss as foolish that some people think that as he gets what is likely to be a larger role that Ds will be much more aware of him and focus greater efforts on slowing down his contributions.

There can be a huge difference in catching a team's 3rd best CB or being mismatched against a box SS or LB, and going head up against a D's best cover guy.  Or perhaps you think that is comical also.

.

 
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bud29 said:
:yes: Like Chris Harris
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Odd to show as what is intended as positive examples to choose 2 failed plays where the CB had exaggerated leverage - one press coverage with deep help and one outside leverage with inside help - and the FS was there to make plays both times.  That's exactly what Hill is going to see more of.

 
as a KC fan and someone who was over drafting Hill already.....I'll be honest that I am not real happy about the Maclin release....kind of liked the idea of Hill on the field with Kelce and a solid WR like Maclin....feels weird to say that I am not real excited about my guy becoming the WR1.....but I'm a little concerned....I don't really have anything to back this up, but I was just looking forward to them incorporating him more and giving him more touches....not necessarily becoming "the guy"....

 
KC will ruin the golden goose if they treat him as a traditional WR1. He needs to be getting touches all over. Conley is a traditional WR in the athletic build of a top WR. While the KC WR corps is odd looking, Andy Reid once had Freddie Mitchell as a starting WR on his team.

 
Bojang0301 said:
KC will ruin the golden goose if they treat him as a traditional WR1. He needs to be getting touches all over. Conley is a traditional WR in the athletic build of a top WR. While the KC WR corps is odd looking, Andy Reid once had Freddie Mitchell as a starting WR on his team.
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My thought is that they'll still line him up all over and he'll get his opportunities. The downside is that they'll probably move him off ST. I'm not overly concerned from the opposing CB because he'll either be (a) in motion or (b) anywhere or (c) needs to play against the best CB's anyway or (d) running every route possible. Considering that his game should be closer to a finished product somewhere in season 3, getting thrown in the deep end is the best thing for Hill's development. 

 
Tackling Dummies said:
My thought is that they'll still line him up all over and he'll get his opportunities. The downside is that they'll probably move him off ST. I'm not overly concerned from the opposing CB because he'll either be (a) in motion or (b) anywhere or (c) needs to play against the best CB's anyway or (d) running every route possible. Considering that his game should be closer to a finished product somewhere in season 3, getting thrown in the deep end is the best thing for Hill's development. 
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How do any of those things protect him from seeing CB1 coverage and/or receiving more attention from opposing defenses? When a WR goes in motion (or lines up "anywhere") the DB covering him runs across the formation with him, unless they play a true zone scheme (and in that case it wouldn't matter anyway).

 
Bojang0301 said:
KC will ruin the golden goose if they treat him as a traditional WR1. He needs to be getting touches all over. Conley is a traditional WR in the athletic build of a top WR. While the KC WR corps is odd looking, Andy Reid once had Freddie Mitchell as a starting WR on his team.
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I think he's proven to be such a playmaker at ST that he can't be taken off entirely. He might not get all those punt return snaps but he will get some. He's just that good. I also don't think it makes a ton of sense for him to be lined up as WR1 because he needs to operate in space. Press covers that jam him well can keep him from getting the kind of release he needs. He shouldn't lead the team in targets but he should get a ton of touches/targets.

I'm inclined to believe that Demarcus Robinson will get a crack opposite Conley to start.

 
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