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5 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He literally had one game like that last year.

No matter how you slice it, Hill is back at the top of the WR1 conversation.

For me, he's WR3 overall, behind only Hopkins and Adams. He's a scintilla over Julio and Thomas, but ahead of OBJ in my book.

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg23 said:

4 games in full PPR with 10.00 points  or less (D Hop had none). Law of averages Mahommes regress some and that number maybe 6 of 16 weeks. 

Okay, but that's a far cry from 2-35.  Also, if that's the measuring stick you're using, Michael Thomas had four games where he scored less than 10 PPR points.  Mike Evans had four as well.  Thielen had two.  JuJu had two, and one where he scored exactly 10 points.  I don't really see your point here.  

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I like him over Thomas but would draft Hop, Adams, Julio, Evans, obj, juju ahead of him so WR7 .Only takes one person in draft SERP or auction so my guess he goes about WR 4 won’t be on any my teams. 

Edited by Heisenberg23

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

Okay, but that's a far cry from 2-35.  Also, if that's the measuring stick you're using, Michael Thomas had four games where he scored less than 10 PPR points.  Mike Evans had four as well.  Thielen had two.  JuJu had two, and one where he scored exactly 10 points.  I don't really see your point here.  

Everything went perfect for KC last year. No way Mahommes throws 50 TD. 40 gonna be tough. Probably 35 and he still is qb 1 or 2 

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He was sixth in my leagues (ppr) behind Adams, Brown, Thomas, Hopkins and Thielen. I rank him about the same this year (but not behind all the same guys).

He was #1 in our format (bonus for plays over 40 & TDs over 40 - he had 8 & 4 - plus 0.04 for return yards.)

I have right behind the target hogs (Hopkins, Adams & Julio), grouped with Thomas and OBJ. But at 1.10 / 1.15 it's not insane to think he'll be there because 8-9 RBs will come off the board before my first pick, and probably 11-12 before my second rounder.

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Yeah there's no way a 24 year old WR/QB could ever improve.......roll eyes......

Edited by Milkman
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10 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah there's no way a 24 year old WR/QB could ever improve.......roll eyes......

50 TD (yet alone 40) is not sustainable. Maybe I’m wrong and he already a HOF Qb. At current ADP Mahommes is going late 2 mid 3 he would have to repeat 50 to justify that ADP. You would be drafting him based on his ceiling - too rich for me. Defenses adjust too. After suspension news Hill will also be drafted at his ceiling imho. 

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48 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Okay, but that's a far cry from 2-35.  Also, if that's the measuring stick you're using, Michael Thomas had four games where he scored less than 10 PPR points.  Mike Evans had four as well.  Thielen had two.  JuJu had two, and one where he scored exactly 10 points.  I don't really see your point here.  

I think the point he is trying to make is last year it maybe felt like if he didn't score 40 points he felt fairly average. 7 weeks of 7,14,10,12,6,8,13 scoring will do that.   Granted 40 point weeks win you that week so there is that....

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg23 said:

50 TD (yet alone 40) is not sustainable. Maybe I’m wrong and he already a HOF Qb. At current ADP Mahommes is going late 2 mid 3 he would have to repeat 50 to justify that ADP. You would be drafting him based on his ceiling - too rich for me. Defenses adjust too. After suspension news Hill will also be drafted at his ceiling imho. 

Next 3-4 years is peak Tyreek/Mahomes. Pass on them if you want. With Tyreek not missing any games Mahomes good for 40. It's never been done before is true but every record that has been set wasn't done before it was. The league is changing. Passing more. Better QB are coming out of college all the time. Tyreek is the best deep threat the league has seen since Randy Moss. I'm buying. 

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11 minutes ago, mozzy84 said:

I think the point he is trying to make is last year it maybe felt like if he didn't score 40 points he felt fairly average. 7 weeks of 7,14,10,12,6,8,13 scoring will do that.   Granted 40 point weeks win you that week so there is that....

Even if you take away his three 40+ point weeks,  he still had 5 other weeks where he scored 20+. Everybody always wants to say he’s basically just a deep threat and boom/bust because they see all the highlight reel 50+ yard tds, but that’s actually not the case. 

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28 minutes ago, mozzy84 said:

I think the point he is trying to make is last year it maybe felt like if he didn't score 40 points he felt fairly average. 7 weeks of 7,14,10,12,6,8,13 scoring will do that.   Granted 40 point weeks win you that week so there is that....

Exactly. 

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lol at anyone who panic sold

Hill might gain some goodwill after this. This whole episode brings into doubt the situation in college. He needs to ditch his baby mama. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Even if you take away his three 40+ point weeks,  he still had 5 other weeks where he scored 20+. Everybody always wants to say he’s basically just a deep threat and boom/bust because they see all the highlight reel 50+ yard tds, but that’s actually not the case. 

I hear you. But compared to say Adams, Hopkins and a few others towards the top last year he could and should be considered inconsistent (none of them had 6 weeks of 13 or less points).   I like hill but I like 5-6 guys more going into this year.

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2 hours ago, Skeletore Eh said:

queue the cowboys fans complaining that zeke got six games and hill got zero

I mean they wouldn't be wrong. Zeke must have shown up to his interview with Goodell, and sat down and told Roger to go F himself or something. 

As for Hill, I think its unrealistic to expect numbers on par with what he did last year, the Chiefs offense will come down(it has to) and that is much more likely to come out of Hill than it is from Kelce or even Watkins, as teams will likely sell out more to stop him from getting deep. The Chargers did that late in the year, and both the Colts and Patriots did that on the playoffs. Of course, those teams are all well coached, and have quality players, so it won't work for everyone, but I'd bet on Hill being closer to his 2017 than his 2018. That is still a WR1 though, but I think he's more in line with guys like Mike Evans or even Keenan Allen(in PPR) than he is with Hopkins or Adams.

3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I saw him go as early as 1.07 in some leagues - I wasn't a fan at the time and now it looks far far worse.

That might still be a fine pick. Watkins is almost a lock to be gone after this year, and Hill is no lock to be there in 2020, and seemingly will always be an off field risk. Hardman's floor is probably the #3 option in the best passing game in the league after 2019, with upside for more. If people were expecting Hardman to be a difference maker in 2019, than they were kidding themselves to begin with, but I still don't see him as all that different than guys like Campbell or Samuel.

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The reason a lot of good posters are coming in here and hitting the brakes on Tyreek's projections is because a QB has never followed a 50 TD season up with another one. Mahomes has a good shot at being the first. Tyreek was getting double a lot all year. For some reason people still think he's a gimmick player. They have been saying for 3 years that he's not that good and he just keeps getting better. Look for him to improve even more this year. 

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3 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

Video>>>>>>>>>voice recording.

Especially when the video is brutal and the voice recording when heard in its full context is meh at best.

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The comments on PFT are ridiculous.  Looks like the NFL might get some backlash for this, even though they probably did the right thing.

This is unfortunate because the idiot masses are teaching the NFL that they are right to be more concerned with PR as it pertains to mainstream casual idiots than actual justice.  Angry, uninformed internet mobs are probably going to influence future decisions.  Maybe some mainstream news source will come out with an honest article on this instead of just harvesting clicks and outrage.  It's clear that almost all the commenters are not up to date on the recent events.

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3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

The comments on PFT are ridiculous.  Looks like the NFL might get some backlash for this, even though they probably did the right thing.

This is unfortunate because the idiot masses are teaching the NFL that they are right to be more concerned with PR as it pertains to mainstream casual idiots than actual justice.  Angry, uninformed internet mobs are probably going to influence future decisions.  Maybe some mainstream news source will come out with an honest article on this instead of just harvesting clicks and outrage.  It's clear that almost all the commenters are not up to date on the recent events.

They won't budge on guys like Gordon with marijuana despite nearly unanimous public outcry and massively shifted social norms, so I kind of doubt we have to worry about the NFL worrying about public opinion when it comes to player discipline. 

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4 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

They won't budge on guys like Gordon with marijuana despite nearly unanimous public outcry and massively shifted social norms, so I kind of doubt we have to worry about the NFL worrying about public opinion when it comes to player discipline. 

I'm pretty sure the public opinion on the "mainstream" NFL fanbase sites is against Marijuana or 50/50 at best - not unanimous at all from the thumbs up/down on comments?

Public perception seems to me to be the main factor in any decision they make - it is a business.

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9 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Maybe some mainstream news source will come out with an honest article on this instead of just harvesting clicks and outrage.

Take from it what you will, but this was posted 5 days ago:

https://medium.com/@claywendler/sex-lies-and-audiotape-can-tyreek-hill-outrun-espinal-family-control-95ca27954911

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I'm pretty sure the public opinion on the "mainstream" NFL fanbase sites is against Marijuana or 50/50 at best - not unanimous at all from the thumbs up/down on comments?

Public perception seems to me to be the main factor in any decision they make - it is a business.

Nevermind - I stand corrected.  After further review, it seems like it's about 5 to 1 ratio in favor of Marijuana.

Hurray progress!

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3 minutes ago, trader jake said:

For sure - I read that a few days ago.  It doesn't seem to be getting the mainstream attention it should.

That story is just crazy.

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[Tucker] Ultimately it appears Tyreek Hill got the benefit of the doubt that Zeke and others didn't even though he 1) has a heinous prior conviction on his record, 2) the DA said in a statement that he believed a crime was committed, and 3) very disturbing threatening audio. 🤔

 

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL/status/1152283774853533696

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1 minute ago, zeeshan2 said:

[Tucker] Ultimately it appears Tyreek Hill got the benefit of the doubt that Zeke and others didn't even though he 1) has a heinous prior conviction on his record, 2) the DA said in a statement that he believed a crime was committed, and 3) very disturbing threatening audio. 🤔

 

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL/status/1152283774853533696 

Dude thinks we're still in April.

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19 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

[Tucker] Ultimately it appears Tyreek Hill got the benefit of the doubt that Zeke and others didn't even though he 1) has a heinous prior conviction on his record, 2) the DA said in a statement that he believed a crime was committed, and 3) very disturbing threatening audio. 🤔

 

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL/status/1152283774853533696

They are all digging in. Damage control. 

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29 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

[Tucker] Ultimately it appears Tyreek Hill got the benefit of the doubt that Zeke and others didn't even though he 1) has a heinous prior conviction on his record, 2) the DA said in a statement that he believed a crime was committed, and 3) very disturbing threatening audio. 🤔

 

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL/status/1152283774853533696

Tweet him that medium link and see if he's got the stones to read it.  Tucker is a ####.

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11 minutes ago, Milkman said:

They are all digging in. Damage control. 

I mean, they have nothing to lose this way. Criticizing Goodell is popular, potential domestic violence is not, and if anything else bad ever happens they can say they were on the right side of it. 

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9 minutes ago, Milkman said:

They are all digging in. Damage control. 

:shrug: I'm with him on this.  Doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of some other suspensions.  But, it really doesn't make much difference one way or the other I just hope Hill's son is out of danger whomever the culprit is.

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1 minute ago, Foosball God said:

:shrug: I'm with him on this.  Doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of some other suspensions.  But, it really doesn't make much difference one way or the other I just hope Hill's son is out of danger whomever the culprit is.

Do you know all the evidence Tyreek gave to the NFL?

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2 hours ago, dipandglide said:

lol at anyone who panic sold

Hill might gain some goodwill after this. This whole episode brings into doubt the situation in college. He needs to ditch his baby mama. 

Meh, I don't think you can really blame those people.  If someone gave up a 1st for him a month ago, they would have been ridiculed by 90% of the shark pool.  Things aren't always predictable and this certainly wasn't, so at the time those who traded him probably made the right move.  Sucks for them but that's fantasy football for you.

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6 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

:shrug: I'm with him on this.  Doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of some other suspensions.  But, it really doesn't make much difference one way or the other I just hope Hill's son is out of danger whomever the culprit is.

I would hope/think that there's a very watchful eye on his son now.  Would be shocked if whoever it was, did it again now.

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Do you know all the evidence Tyreek gave to the NFL?

Of course not.  I'm not looking to get into a debate about it because neither of us know anything.  I just think it is disingenuous to say that the opinion is simply people refusing to admit they were wrong.  There are far to many unknowns here for the NFL to be sure of anything.  So looking at this within the lens of some of their other personal conduct suspensions isn't just anti-Hill sentiment.

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2 hours ago, mozzy84 said:

I hear you. But compared to say Adams, Hopkins and a few others towards the top last year he could and should be considered inconsistent (none of them had 6 weeks of 13 or less points).   I like hill but I like 5-6 guys more going into this year.

He likely 'should' be taken in between the pumpers and the bashers.  I see him right around WR5 but it seems there's going to be the "told you so" people who gamble on him at wr2 or wr3.  He won't be a 'value' pick this year but I agree he is going to likely be drafted at his ceiling.  He does seemingly have a high season-long floor too though so it wouldn't be a league losing pick.

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3 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Of course not.  I'm not looking to get into a debate about it because neither of us know anything.  I just think it is disingenuous to say that the opinion is simply people refusing to admit they were wrong.  There are far to many unknowns here for the NFL to be sure of anything.  So looking at this within the lens of some of their other personal conduct suspensions isn't just anti-Hill sentiment.

No you're doing the same thing all the other garbage reporters did when they convicted Hill before they knew anything. We don't know what he gave them. Rumor is it's definitive proof she set him up in 2014. I don't know if that's true but if it is it changes a lot. 

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Just now, Milkman said:

No you're doing the same thing all the other garbage reporters did when they convicted Hill before they knew anything. We don't know what he gave them. Rumor is it's definitive proof she set him up in 2014. I don't know if that's true but if it is it changes a lot. 

OK

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If they find anything on him in regards to this situation they will suspend him immediately. The case is closed but it can be opened at any point. If there is evidence floating around out there it will come to light eventually. 

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7 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Meh, I don't think you can really blame those people.  If someone gave up a 1st for him a month ago, they would have been ridiculed by 90% of the shark pool.  Things aren't always predictable and this certainly wasn't, so at the time those who traded him probably made the right move.  Sucks for them but that's fantasy football for you.

Nah. Hill moves the needle in ways most can't. You sit, wait, and collect more info before you sell a player like Hill for peanuts. Is there risk doing that? Of course. He was worth that risk.

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1 minute ago, dipandglide said:

Nah. Hill moves the needle in ways most can't. You sit, wait, and collect more info before you sell a player like Hill for peanuts. Is there risk doing that? Of course. He was worth that risk.

If the result was what the majority believed would happen (lengthy suspension), than it would have been a good move.  So many people around here love to criticize people's choices only based on the result.  No one expected no suspension.

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Oh, and stop putting 100% stock into what you hear on the news. If there's one lesson here it's that you should think for yourself and wait for facts before drawing conclusions. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Maybe some mainstream news source will come out with an honest article on this instead of just harvesting clicks and outrage. 

 

1 hour ago, trader jake said:

 

1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

It doesn't seem to be getting the mainstream attention it should.

This was a very interesting read and definitely provides a good possible explanation for a lot of things.

I do find it hard to read just how many anonymous sources the author has though.  And it really seems like he is trying to make a big splash and a big name for himself.  Seems way too "look at how important I am and how good my research is" to take overly seriously.  I do agree he could be right, but the writing style is suspect.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

If the result was what the majority believed would happen (lengthy suspension), than it would have been a good move.  So many people around here love to criticize people's choices only based on the result.  No one expected no suspension.

Am I surprised there is no suspension? Yes. It looked bad at first glance. If I bought what was being portrayed by the media he would be out of the league for good. That is my point. Chill, let the facts roll in, let the sparkle of the news die down, and let common sense prevail. If you did that, and still wanted to sell, it would've been for more than what he was being sold for right after the news broke. The outlook on Hill's punishment continually improved throughout this entire ordeal. And funny enough, his previous incident in college might come across in a better light after all is said and done. Karma? Maybe. I'll wait for the facts. 

 

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Just now, dipandglide said:

Am I surprised there is no suspension? Yes. It looked bad at first glance. If I bought what was being portrayed by the media he would be out of the league for good. That is my point. Chill, let the facts roll in, let the sparkle of the news die down, and let common sense prevail. If you did that, and still wanted to sell, it would've been for more than what he was being sold for right after the news broke. The outlook on Hill's punishment continually improved throughout this entire ordeal. And funny enough, his previous incident in college might come across in a better light after all is said and done. Karma? Maybe. I'll wait for the facts. 

 

I get that.  But for every time waiting for the facts can increase a guy you're trying to sell's value, there's a situation where it can decrease it.  The odds were against him, people played the odds.  I can't really fault them for that.  The shark move is usually to try to make the right call about a players situation before it happens.  If a guy goes down and is scheduled for an MRI, and you get a sense that it is an ACL tear, then waiting for the facts might hurt you.  We're all here trying to 'make the move before the others' so I don't always agree on waiting it out.  In this case those who did prevailed though, yes.

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