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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter amnesiac
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Don't get upset at people that want to discount Hill for various reasons. This is when you can gain value with him. I have been very happy all offseason acquiring him. I appreciate the haters.
Stoli
Footballguy
Read this: https://medium.com/@claywendler/sex-lies-and-audiotape-can-tyreek-hill-outrun-espinal-family-control-95ca27954911Hot Sauce Guy said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dismissing legitimate concerns about a player as people being “haters” is the reason so many have been burned by Josh Gordon over the years. They don’t always end up like Elliott, at a discounted price, performing admirably.
Are people concerned about Gurley’s arthritic knee “haters” as well?
Someone in my start-up dynasty just spent $90/500 on Hill.
Clearly that manager is not concerned, and that doesn’t seem like much of a discount, if any. I had him priced around $95. I wouldn’t bid that, but clearly someone will since that’s about what he went for.
And that is likely the scenario for every league I’m in. I don’t expect his ADP to be effected in the slightest in general for redraft or dynasty since there’s no suspension.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a risk.
And importantly to this discussion, without getting a discount, you’re absorbing that risk at full value.
That’s called calculating risk, not being a hater.
HTH!
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Well here is where we probably differ.Dismissing legitimate concerns about a player as people being “haters” is the reason so many have been burned by Josh Gordon over the years. They don’t always end up like Elliott, at a discounted price, performing admirably.
Are people concerned about Gurley’s arthritic knee “haters” as well?
Someone in my start-up dynasty just spent $90/500 on Hill.
Clearly that manager is not concerned, and that doesn’t seem like much of a discount, if any. I had him priced around $95. I wouldn’t bid that, but clearly someone will since that’s about what he went for.
And that is likely the scenario for every league I’m in. I don’t expect his ADP to be effected in the slightest in general for redraft or dynasty since there’s no suspension.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a risk.
And importantly to this discussion, without getting a discount, you’re absorbing that risk at full value.
That’s called calculating risk, not being a hater.
HTH!
When the news broke out I traded a 2020 first to acquire Hill. I posted on multiple forums and most said i lost (hater group)
I drafted him in the 4th round of two separate startup dynasty drafts. (letting him fall this long in dynasty seemed like a lot of people hating on him) I specifically did startup drafts this offseason due to the value I saw in acquiring Hill.
Now that we see Hill was not suspended by the league his value is rebounding. At this point I see the value in discounting him slightly due to past DV case and what some may see as child abuse that didnt have enough evidence to proceed.
My post more referred to the previous haters, as I don't mind slightly putting a discount on him for risks. I have him dropped 2 WRs for the risk, but still in the first round of dynasty startups.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
moving forward I think one of the tougher things for him will be the reception he receives in opposing stadiums....heavily boo'd the entire time....warm ups, every time he touches the ball, every time he gets hit (cheers), etc....I realize he is a professional and athletes play through these type of things, but you have to think the mob mentality that still thinks he is guilty and will continue to condemn him will be "out in force".....and at some point I would think that will take a little bit of a toll on a players psyche....now how much will it "affect his game"....I don't know....but trying to put myself in that spot I would think it would be tough to play through.....
Elevencents
Footballguy
Or it could drive him to perform even better to shut everyone up. So I don’t think you can consider it since it could easily go either way.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s an interesting article for sure.
a biased one, but fair. If you believe the absolute best-case scenario.
There could be another reality, that it did happen, all parties saw how it would impact Hill at the time & for the future, and stories have been altered.
That yet another occurrence of violence between them had occurred is what’s most troubling to me, especially when it involves a child.
But again - I wasn’t there. I dunno what happened. Some say “I wasn’t there so he must be innocent. He must have been framed. He must have been treated unfairly.” And I respect those takes.
my take is that if nothing happened, the police wouldn’t have been called & he wouldn’t have been in that situation. But he was, and they were, and now here we are.
Could the truth be somewhere in the middle? Absolutely. I’m totally willing to concede that.
But I have a hard time with the presumption of innocence. Not because Hill is a black kid in OK, but because *something* happened that led to that situation.
Regardless, I wish those who draft Hill good luck. And I hope that Hill never hits a woman or a child. If he does, an awful lot of people who stood up for him are gonna have egg on their face.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Actually no, we’re eye to eye. That all makes sense. Context matters. Looking back to when the news broke, his value surely ranked in both dynasty & redraft. More in dynasty since it was long before the season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Raiders Chiefs games should interesting. Shy bunch of fans, those Black Hole denizens.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Don’t really see that at all right now.
Something happened that led Hill to the position he was in.
Perhaps how the legal system handled it is up for debate - but something happened.
And while the story now is “he was pressured into accepting a plea that’s hanging over him like a millstone”, the fact remains that he made that plea, and said that he hit & choked a pregnant woman.
Don't really see any egg on the face of anyone who believed him. Not sure that’s how it works.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
egg....talking about the last 40 pages or so of this thread regarding the recent "issue"...not the incident before he was in the leagueDon’t really see that at all right now.
Something happened that led Hill to the position he was in.
Perhaps how the legal system handled it is up for debate - but something happened.
And while the story now is “he was pressured into accepting a plea that’s hanging over him like a millstone”, the fact remains that he made that plea, and said that he hit & choked a pregnant woman.
Don't really see any egg on the face of anyone who believed him. Not sure that’s how it works.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh - sorry, I’m new to the topic once the new issue hit & missed those 40 pages, but I can imagine.
Guessing people were saying “suspended for the year!” Etc?
I would probably have said the same. I think his value would tank & was sure it’d be a suspension.
I haven't read the past 40 pages but I think there is an argument to be made whether his off the field controversy will effect his play on the field.
The guy is a top 5 WR but i still have my doubts about him and I often will take my next player in line to avoid a potential headache. If my next WR in line is an entire tier below than I would take him. I don't know what happened but I know that I would never accept a plea if I were innocent and would do everything to fight the charges. I expect someone with as much pride as a professional athlete would do everything to protect their reputation. He could lose current and future endorsement deals.
The guy is a top 5 WR but i still have my doubts about him and I often will take my next player in line to avoid a potential headache. If my next WR in line is an entire tier below than I would take him. I don't know what happened but I know that I would never accept a plea if I were innocent and would do everything to fight the charges. I expect someone with as much pride as a professional athlete would do everything to protect their reputation. He could lose current and future endorsement deals.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I would recommend to you and @Hot Sauce Guy and anybody else joining the party a little late to go back and look at some of the links provided in this thread, including the one on Twitter where the guy goes through the court transcripts from the 2014 case...and the sex lies and audiotape link....and the link explaining why Tyreek would take the deal and would have been stupid not too...there are so many possible layers to this situation that it is understandable that we are at where we are at and he did not get suspended, etc....there very well could be more that comes out about lies, extortion, set ups, etc....there is still a ton of details and information that the general public is not, and may not ever be aware of.....this isn't just a case of Tyreek "catching a break" and "getting away with something"....around almost every corner of this case, Tyreek position came out looking better and better....there may be a reason for that....its not gonna matter to most of you because he was "guilty" from the very beginning without any details or context and will remain "guilty" no matter what....
part of me thinks the girlfriend could come out and admit that she lied about the 2014 stuff, none of it happened, she self inflicted her wounds, she broke the kids arm, the kid really loves Tyreek to the moon and back, she and her family have been trying to extort him from the beginning, etc.....and most of the mob would still think he is "guilty" and a POS monster....
I have a feeling there will be more that comes out and Tyreek kind of hinted at that as he ended his presser at training camp.....saying "my story is crazy man, it's going to be somebody's testimony one day, I'm telling y'all"......
and just as far as the bolded......its pretty easy to puff your chest out and make such a proclamation behind your keyboard.....but it happens all the time....maybe you would be different.....but you probably wouldn't really know it until it was actually happening to you......and your "everything" might be different than others people's "everything" depending on your individual circumstances and resources or lack thereof....
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And it’s also quite possible that Hill did that sh!t & that a lot of this stuff is PR or revisionist history.
Weird how completely convinced some people are one way or the other when no one knows the real story other than the folks who were there.
Tyreek didn’t catch a break, nor did he get away with anything.
But he also might not be 100% innocent either.
And the reality is we just don’t know.
I’ve read the thought pieces, and I’m well aware that people of color receive unfair treatment in many parts (most all) of the country.
But I’m also aware that elite college athletes are sometimes handled with kid gloves, regardless of color. And yes, sometimes they do get away with stuff.
I’m also aware that people change their stories after the fact because finances are involved. Or PR matters. Or for whatever reason.
Again, I wasn’t there, so alas, I lack your confidence & conviction to argue it one way or another.
But in fact, as a young person I was accused of something I didn’t do. I was cutting class as a senior in HS, was waking & sat on a curb in a parking lot to smoke a cigarette. someone in an office called the cops & said I was “casing cars” - apparently someone had broken in to several in that lot recently & they thought they had their guy. I was interrogated for hours. I was threatened with all kinds of punishment including being put in county jail for the weekend (it happened on a Friday) and “if only I’d tell them the truth, I could go home”. This went on for the better part of 6 hours. I missed my plans for that night. It sucked.
But I never once wavered because I wasn't guilty.
so I don’t need to “puff out my chest” because I’ve been there. And that wasn’t something as heinous as hitting/choking a pregnant woman.
If you’d like to continue defending Hill, I won’t judge you for it, but don’t pretend you know anything more than anyone else, because again, the only people who know what really went down there, were there.
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I think we can all agree on these assumptions.
1. The police know more than anyone here in the forum or anyone in the media.
Hill was cleared 2 times by the police.
2. The NFL knows more than anyone here in the forum or anyone in the media.
The NFL cleared Hill of any wrong doing.
By not suspending him - the NFL takes a bigger public relations hit then suspending him. In many people's minds - Hill is garbage and should be suspended. It would have been easier for the NFL to give him 2-4 games just for the noise this has caused. But the NFL saw all the evidence and CLEARED him. So the evidence they saw must have been overwhelming. By clearing Hill - twitter, the media, and all the haters have been singing the same song. "How can a wife beater - child abuser get off when guys like Josh Gordon are still sitting out"
In my mind - Hill is not a bad guy. When he was 18 - he was dating the wrong women - he was accused of something really bad. He was looking at going to jail - his public defender got him to plead out - take a deal and avoid jail time. I probably would have done the same thing.
Now it has come out that his roommate at the time has stood behind Hill stating that nothing ever happened. And on Tape - when Hill did not know he was being recorded yet his GF knew there was a recording - he denied the original abuse charge and she did not dispute it.
Just my 2 cents - Hope Hill owners held on to him or got him on a huge discount.
1. The police know more than anyone here in the forum or anyone in the media.
Hill was cleared 2 times by the police.
2. The NFL knows more than anyone here in the forum or anyone in the media.
The NFL cleared Hill of any wrong doing.
By not suspending him - the NFL takes a bigger public relations hit then suspending him. In many people's minds - Hill is garbage and should be suspended. It would have been easier for the NFL to give him 2-4 games just for the noise this has caused. But the NFL saw all the evidence and CLEARED him. So the evidence they saw must have been overwhelming. By clearing Hill - twitter, the media, and all the haters have been singing the same song. "How can a wife beater - child abuser get off when guys like Josh Gordon are still sitting out"
In my mind - Hill is not a bad guy. When he was 18 - he was dating the wrong women - he was accused of something really bad. He was looking at going to jail - his public defender got him to plead out - take a deal and avoid jail time. I probably would have done the same thing.
Now it has come out that his roommate at the time has stood behind Hill stating that nothing ever happened. And on Tape - when Hill did not know he was being recorded yet his GF knew there was a recording - he denied the original abuse charge and she did not dispute it.
Just my 2 cents - Hope Hill owners held on to him or got him on a huge discount.
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Except Hill wasn’t cleared two times by the police. They said they believed a crime occurred, but they couldn’t prove who committed that crime. That doesn’t clear or exonerate him, it can mean a couple things: he is innocent OR he is guilty, but they can’t prove it.
Likewise, the NFL didn’t clear Hill of any wrong doing; their statement specifically said they didn’t have access to the legal investigation and court proceedings (they’ve been sealed), and as a result, they couldn’t say if Hill had violated the NFL’s policy. This is not clearing Hill, it’s saying we don’t have enough evidence.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, we can all agree on those things.
I think we can all agree on these things also:
1. Police don’t always act within the law.
2. The NFL often protects its own interests, even in the worst case scenarios, unless they absolutely must act.
3. Being cleared by the police doesn’t always mean one is innocent.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
#1 scoring WR this year. Nuff said
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Hill averaged over 100 receiving yards per game and had 11 receiving TD's in his 11 games with Hunt. After Hunt was cut, Hill averaged less than 70 receiving yards per game and only had 1 receiving TD in his last 7 games, which includes the two playoff games.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Seriously stop with the guilty or not guilty crap in this thread. It’s time to move on. The Hill owners and KC fans aren’t going to budge. The people “convinced” he’s a shady dude aren’t going to budge.
He was not suspended. That’s all that matters now. If you missed the fun from a few months back start a new thread where you can argue the same points over and over again - and both biased sides can talk past each other for pages and pages.
The season starts in one month. Hill is playing Week 1. We should be discussing his prospects for the upcoming season and at most saying there could be some risk of future suspension if you want to downplay him a little.
I realize I’m coming across as the board police here and I don’t like telling anyone what they should or shouldn’t post but I’m certain 90% of the people here now don’t want to rehash the whole offseason controversy - and if we want to read this thread there’s no avoiding it if a few people late to the party can’t drop it.
You either think he’s a misunderstood martyr, a complete scumbag, or somewhere in the middle - NO ONE CARES.
He was not suspended. That’s all that matters now. If you missed the fun from a few months back start a new thread where you can argue the same points over and over again - and both biased sides can talk past each other for pages and pages.
The season starts in one month. Hill is playing Week 1. We should be discussing his prospects for the upcoming season and at most saying there could be some risk of future suspension if you want to downplay him a little.
I realize I’m coming across as the board police here and I don’t like telling anyone what they should or shouldn’t post but I’m certain 90% of the people here now don’t want to rehash the whole offseason controversy - and if we want to read this thread there’s no avoiding it if a few people late to the party can’t drop it.
You either think he’s a misunderstood martyr, a complete scumbag, or somewhere in the middle - NO ONE CARES.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The offense as a whole slowed down a little after Hunt was released but that could just be variance as they picked it back up in the playoffs. Most people that are educated in statistics probably realize the whole offense is in line for at least a small regression but Hill should be in line for another big season as the most (or second most) important part of the passing attack.
Is this something we should account for more? There is plenty of discussion about Mahomes having some level of regression, which I think is reasonable. In addition, I wonder if they hit some bumps because of the downgrade at RB.
I only see this as a thing for redraft. In dynasty if he stays out of trouble, he’s gold: elite talent and potentially paired up w Mahomes long term (please — that is not an attempted back foot into the guilt/innocence thing)
ETA: I posted at the same time as @Dr. Octopus above. Agree w his analysis
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JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Mahomes dropped from 350 passing yards per game to 300. His passing TD's per game decreased from 3.4 to 2.3 after Hunt was cut.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
this is exactly what I was talking about.....it doesn't even matter that all the people truly investigating the situation and the details and the context have come to the same conclusion.....people will still think he "could" be guilty.....
thats the thing about being in Hill's situation....people still want him to have to "prove" that he is innocent somehow....how exactly is he supposed to do that...?.....especially without airing dirty laundry, confidential family information, and throwing other people under the bus right now...(that is for other people (attorneys) to do down the road if necessary)....what more do you want him to say....he has said he is innocent....but most of you "want" him to say "I am innocent......and this is why, because she did X, Y, and Z or this or that".....but you are not going to get that....so HIll is stuck in your guilty box....its not Hill's fault that some records are sealed or confidential.....he has denied all abuse since the beginning and has taken the high road in all this publicly and has not said ONE bad thing about Crytstal Espinol or her family...not one....even though he probably really wants to.....and it would make all of you happy and possibly get him out of the guilty box you want to keep him in....unfortunately until that happens most will still condemn him....for everybody to be happy and actually see that he may not have done anything wrong, he would have to probably reveal all the dysfunction, dirty laundry, confidential family business, and skeletons to the public....not sure that happens....yet....
I expect a year similar to last year....plus or minus just a little bit...wouldn't be surprised if its better....I think they chuck it a bunch
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I watched Hill drop a wide open 60+ yard TD without a defender within 5 yards of him in that same timeframe.
was that because Hunt was cut?
Football is a funny game - defenses are different every week, weather changes in the 2nd half, the season wears in & players wear down, coaches adjust their approach (Reid does this weekly).
There are dozens of factors that could have caused this regression, or as Dr Octopus points out, just simple regression.
impossible to point to Hunt’s departure and definitively determine causation.
You should try reading my post again. I didn’t say he is guilty, I didn’t even say I think he is guilty. I merely pointed out the inaccurate statement from another post that said he had been cleared by police & the NFL. He wasn’t. Both groups said they didn’t have enough evidence, not that Hill was cleared. That’s all I posted. You inferred the rest.
I hope Hill gets 150 yards and 2 TDs in week 1, or that he is held under 40 yards. Anything sufficiently extreme to get people talking about his actual on-field play again.
It’s been a good thread for hashing out and refining our opinions. We’ve all done that by now, and no one is going to change without new data appearing.
It’s been a good thread for hashing out and refining our opinions. We’ve all done that by now, and no one is going to change without new data appearing.
Andrew74
Footballguy
IIRC sometime towards the end of the season Hill tweaked an ankle. Maybe that was a factor, too? I just remember a game or two of him hobbling around the field.Dr. Octopus said:
ETA: week 14 vs Ravens; so 2nd game of the referenced 7 games to end the year.
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JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
The Chiefs scored 37 plus points in 7 of the first 11 games. They only topped 31 against the Raiders in their last 7 games. My take is that D. Williams is a mediocre RB who thrived in a great offense. As defenses adjust to slow Williams down, Mahomes' and Hill's Numbers will improve from their last seven games, but not to the levels of the first 11 games because of weaker RB play. Williams will not do near as well as last year. Mahomes and Hill will put up about 85% of last years numbers.
[Schwartz] Have we seen any tweet from someone with juice denying any Tyreek trade rumors? I think there’s more truth to these than most ppl think when these rumors are floating around.
this on the heels of lombardi on matt harmom's podcast saying a big name wr could be available in trade that would shock people
this on the heels of lombardi on matt harmom's podcast saying a big name wr could be available in trade that would shock people
Milkman
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve not heard any Tyreek rumors, but the Chiefs beat writer has been chattering about the Chiefs trading Demarcus Robinson, who’s reportedly a Tyreek clone.
while I was pretty adamant that I didn’t want him this year due to the off-season ugliness, as I get closer to my draft tomorrow I’ve come to terms with the fact that his ADP is too friendly for me to resist depending on how my draft breaks & what position I’m drafting.
Sigh
I’m such a whore.
Milkman
Footballguy
Tyreek's in for a bigger year than last year where he was the #1 WR in FF.I’ve not heard any Tyreek rumors, but the Chiefs beat writer has been chattering about the Chiefs trading Demarcus Robinson, who’s reportedly a Tyreek clone.
while I was pretty adamant that I didn’t want him this year due to the off-season ugliness, as I get closer to my draft tomorrow I’ve come to terms with the fact that his ADP is too friendly for me to resist depending on how my draft breaks & what position I’m drafting.
Sigh
I’m such a whore.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Non-PPR, but yes, I agree he’s just too good to pass up.
I’ll feel guilty about it briefly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hill scores a 60+ yard TD in this game. Ramsey or no Ramsey.
Faust
MVP
I am looking forward to the matchup after Ramsey trash talked Hill:
Jalen Ramsey to Shadow Tyreek Hill Week 1 After Calling WR a 'Return Specialist'
Jalen Ramsey to Shadow Tyreek Hill Week 1 After Calling WR a 'Return Specialist'
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gonna be epic. Ramsey looked like he lost a step last year.
Reminds me of Revis as his skills were fading but he still trash talked every week.
I seriously doubt the Chiefs approach this game any differently than any other. Shots will be taken.
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
Why would you announce this 2 weeks ahead of time? Feel like this gives Andy Reid a huge advantage knowing this if this is true. Could also be misdirection.
And how would that hurt the Chiefs? They show up to play and Jalen Ramsey is not on Hill every play, that's somehow supposed to help Jacksonville?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - I’d assumed that anyway.
The only ramification I can see is motivation for Hill to burn Ramsey.
Why give any team bulletin board fodder? Like the Chiefs needs more motivation to put points on the board?
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
I suppose. I found an old article from last year and at that point Ramsey had shadowed the other teams WR 10 times, so it isn't something they do every game against the other team's #1.
I just dont see how announcing this would have any benefit for Jax.
https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/fantasy-football-wr-cb-matchups-week-10-2018/
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