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Week 10 - Buy Low/ Sell High (1 Viewer)

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Amari Cooper might be a buy low again 5-48-0 when Crabtree had a big day.  He gets Jason Verrett this week.

Anyone on a bye week.  Baldwin is in the concussion protocol.  Maclin is on bye this week.  Cooks had an off week, Bortles?

 
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Posted in the Melvin Gordon thread, who I think is a sell high:

Is it time to consider Gordon as a sell-high?

Against Indy and NO, considered to be two bottom of the barrel run defenses, he barely averaged two yards a carry, and is averaging just over 3 yards a carry on the season, against marginal defenses at best. This touchdown rate seems unsustainable (pro-rated out to 24 touchdowns for a 16 week FF year), and the emergence of Henry as a potential redzone weapon has me worried they might not turn as readily to Gordon for those goal line plunges he's been gifted so far this season. The only thing that gives me pause is his recent utilization in the passing game, fueled largely by the loss of Woodhead for the season:

Receiving numbers so far this season:

Week 1 - 0 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards

Week 2 - 3 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards

Week 3 - 7 targets, 4 catches, 43 yards

Week 4 - 7 targets, 6 catches, 43 yards

If he continues to generate almost 100 all purpose yards a game, with a score, I'm not sure I'll care too much what his yards per carry looks like. Should we expect Melvin Gordon to take a late season tumble down the rankings though, similar to Devonta Freeman last year, after his touchdown rate inevitably regresses to the expected mean? I'm strongly considering taking advantage of his current standing as the #3 running back overall in my league (0.5 PPR), packaging him with a guy like Diggs, and capitalizing on their hot streaks to go after a guy like Mike Evans from a RB hungry team. Freeman's fall from grace last season was abrupt and ugly, and I'm worried Gordon's 2016 campaign, fueled largely by an unsustainable TD rate, may take a similar path.



 
I'm trying to buy Jeffery this week.  Hopkins is another one I may try to get but I doubt he'll be as easy to get as Jeffery.

 
Posted in the Melvin Gordon thread, who I think is a sell high:
Last week I tried actually buying but the owner wasn't having it. 

I've been trying to sell high on Forte since his game vs the Bills Week 2 with no luck.  I passed up Baldwin for him last week.  Probably should have took it.  PPR QRWTFFKD

 
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So many RBs have been disappointing that they're sticking with who they have, even if they're also underperforming.
You'd think you'd be willing to give one up to get a WR that is actually scoring more points though.  I've been trying to shop Sterling Shepard for a while now but people are only offering a borderline RB2/3.

 
ABSOLUTELY!  Hate it, but kind of glad they are being so stubborn - because some of the guys I was targeting keep throwing up duds.  So glad I did not overpay.
It seems they are overvaluing them and I don't trust their RBs.  Why would I give up a WR like Jordy or Evans for an RB like Tevin Coleman who can't be trusted for consistency.  No way Coleman continues what he did in his first couple weeks.

 
You'd think you'd be willing to give one up to get a WR that is actually scoring more points though.  I've been trying to shop Sterling Shepard for a while now but people are only offering a borderline RB2/3.
So, other owners over-value their RBs, but you aren't over-valuing a rookie WR who has had 1 decent game, and two good games?  A rookie WR who has one of, if not the best WRs on his team, who hasn't scored yet, but is likely to do so, thus inhibiting the rookie's TD opps?

I don't know what RBs you are being offered, but you're posting in the buy low/sell high thread about shopping Shepard, so it's reasonable to assume that you feel you'd be selling him high.  Perhaps other owners feel the same way?

 
So, other owners over-value their RBs, but you aren't over-valuing a rookie WR who has had 1 decent game, and two good games?  A rookie WR who has one of, if not the best WRs on his team, who hasn't scored yet, but is likely to do so, thus inhibiting the rookie's TD opps?

I don't know what RBs you are being offered, but you're posting in the buy low/sell high thread about shopping Shepard, so it's reasonable to assume that you feel you'd be selling him high.  Perhaps other owners feel the same way?
That's fair to say but I'm not expecting to get a top RB for him.  I was looking at something like Tevin Coleman or possibly Jordan Howard.

Was hoping to get lucky and sell Shepard high to a guy willing to sell a good RB low.  Maybe someone like Lamar Miller or someone like that.  I've also been trying to pair Shepard with Tyrell Williams but his game yesterday didn't help.

 
Have Brady coming back, so I'm shopping Matt Ryan, who is looking at games at Denver and Seattle to come back to earth after games against three crappy defenses and an overrated Panthers team.

 
That's fair to say but I'm not expecting to get a top RB for him.  I was looking at something like Tevin Coleman or possibly Jordan Howard.

Was hoping to get lucky and sell Shepard high to a guy willing to sell a good RB low.  Maybe someone like Lamar Miller or someone like that.  I've also been trying to pair Shepard with Tyrell Williams but his game yesterday didn't help.
It's not your leaguemates that overvalue RBs, it's you that undervalues RBs.

No one on earth is trading Lamar Miller for Sterling Shepard.

 
It's not your leaguemates that overvalue RBs, it's you that undervalues RBs.

No one on earth is trading Lamar Miller for Sterling Shepard.
Well, right now Shepard is averaging over 14 point per game and Miller is averaging over 12.  It all depends on how the Miller owner's roster looks.  If he has another good RB and no good WRs then I see no reason why he wouldn't consider trading for Shepard and maybe one of my RBs.

There's going to be a point in the season when people need to forget about when they drafted a player and look at the points they are missing.  Right now it's still a little early but if your team has 0 or 1 win then drastic decisions need to be made.

Just to make it clear, I'm not trying to overvalue my WRs but I will try to exploit another team's weakness if I can.

 
Well, right now Shepard is averaging over 14 point per game and Miller is averaging over 12.
I think the part your missing here is that they play different positions.

These days, a RB scoring 12 per game is worth a lot more than a WR scoring 14 per game. Unless you play in a league that is all flex or something, people are going to need to start at least 2 RBs every week.

There's only like 7 good RBs this year. And about 40 good WRs.

Postional scarcity.

 
I think the part your missing here is that they play different positions.

These days, a RB scoring 12 per game is worth a lot more than a WR scoring 14 per game. Unless you play in a league that is all flex or something, people are going to need to start at least 2 RBs every week.

There's only like 7 good RBs this year. And about 40 good WRs.

Postional scarcity.
That's very true and one of the reason's I've been struggling to find a RB to trade for.  It seems impossible to find one you can trust.  Our league starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs with a flex so I like to start 4 WRs.  With the crap RBs this year it seems almost every team is starting 4 WRs now.

 
FWIW, here are the RBs with similar trade values in last week's Top 200 Forward:


Rashad Jennings 



Jordan Howard


Giovani Bernard


Kenneth Dixon 


Chris Ivory 


Thomas Rawls 


Jonathan Stewart 


Derrick Henry


Ryan Mathews


Arian Foster 


Spencer Ware


Duke Johnson


Dwayne Washington


Darren Sproles


Dion Lewis 

 
It's not your leaguemates that overvalue RBs, it's you that undervalues RBs.

No one on earth is trading Lamar Miller for Sterling Shepard.
I think it comes down to the darkside of zero RB drafting - if you go that route, expect to pay a premium if you want to upgrade your crappy RB situation later.

 
Seriously thinking about dealing Forte for Baldwin.  Should have done it last week.  Was greedy and going after Cooper with Forte.

Would only leave me with Bernard or Dixon to play at RB1 the rest of the way and roll with 3 WR weekly (OBJ/Dez/Maclin/Fuller/Baldwin.

Guys like Matt Jones/Duke Johnson are free agents (short bench league) 12 teams.

 
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Seriously thinking about dealing Forte for Baldwin.  Should have done it last week.  Was greedy and going after Cooper with Forte.

Would only leave me with Bernard or Dixon to play at RB1 the rest of the way and roll with 3 WR weekly (OBJ/Dez/Maclin/Fuller/Baldwin.

Guys like Matt Jones/Duke Johnson are free agents (short bench league) 12 teams.
Trade doesn't really make sense to me unless you think Forte really falls off the map. You get a slight bump at WR where you are already strong but a huge downgrade at RB. Just my .02

 
Trade doesn't really make sense to me unless you think Forte really falls off the map. You get a slight bump at WR where you are already strong but a huge downgrade at RB. Just my .02
I think he does fall, Powell was in a bunch yesterday and got more of the passes, a couple more Fitzpatrick games like that and we'll be seeing a change.

 
I'm not sure value means what some people seem to think it means. People are complaing about RBs being overvalued, but in the same sentence stating how many of them are mediocre. 

It is exactly the scarcity of bell cow RBs that has driven up the value of all RBs. There are a bunch of WRs scoring well - that in turn decreases their value. 

So yes, RB value is high while WR value is low. That means you have to give more on the WR end to get a RB. Supply and demand folks. 

 
That's fair to say but I'm not expecting to get a top RB for him.  I was looking at something like Tevin Coleman or possibly Jordan Howard.

Was hoping to get lucky and sell Shepard high to a guy willing to sell a good RB low.  Maybe someone like Lamar Miller or someone like that.  I've also been trying to pair Shepard with Tyrell Williams but his game yesterday didn't help.
Before yesterday's games, Coleman had outscored Shepard.  Howard had just gotten the starting RB job in Chicago, based on Langford's injury; he was the hot WW pickup last week, and Lamar Miller was getting 28 touches/game. 

Personally, I'd have traded Howard for Shepard, but I am high on Shepard.  In many leagues, the scarcity at RB would make a starting RB with no competition more valuable than a WR 2 (both real and fantasy).

I don't think those examples are necessarily "proof" that other owners are over-valuing their "mediocre" RBs.

 
Well, right now Shepard is averaging over 14 point per game and Miller is averaging over 12.  It all depends on how the Miller owner's roster looks.  If he has another good RB and no good WRs then I see no reason why he wouldn't consider trading for Shepard and maybe one of my RBs.

There's going to be a point in the season when people need to forget about when they drafted a player and look at the points they are missing.  Right now it's still a little early but if your team has 0 or 1 win then drastic decisions need to be made.

Just to make it clear, I'm not trying to overvalue my WRs but I will try to exploit another team's weakness if I can.
But if the other owner isn't willing to be exploited, then you won't get anything.  If you're always trying to "win" a trade, eventually you won't have trade partners.  And make no mistake, but trying to get the RBs (save possibly Howard) for the rookie who has had a decent start while the stud WR on his team has been a little off, is definitely you trying to "win" a trade, making the other guy "lose" it.

If you were trying to make a trade that benefited both teams, and not just one where you "exploited" another owner, you might have more success.

 
Well, right now Shepard is averaging over 14 point per game and Miller is averaging over 12.  It all depends on how the Miller owner's roster looks.  If he has another good RB and no good WRs then I see no reason why he wouldn't consider trading for Shepard and maybe one of my RBs.

There's going to be a point in the season when people need to forget about when they drafted a player and look at the points they are missing.  Right now it's still a little early but if your team has 0 or 1 win then drastic decisions need to be made.

Just to make it clear, I'm not trying to overvalue my WRs but I will try to exploit another team's weakness if I can.
Well, right now DWill is averaging almost 15 ppg (non-ppr), and Shepard is averaging 12.  Would you trade Shepard for DWill?

For that matter, Beckham is averaging under 10 ppg, would a Shepard for Beckham trade be unfair for the guy getting Shepard?

PPG (especially when you are talking about a small, 3-game sample) is a weak argument.

 
But if the other owner isn't willing to be exploited, then you won't get anything.  If you're always trying to "win" a trade, eventually you won't have trade partners.  And make no mistake, but trying to get the RBs (save possibly Howard) for the rookie who has had a decent start while the stud WR on his team has been a little off, is definitely you trying to "win" a trade, making the other guy "lose" it.

If you were trying to make a trade that benefited both teams, and not just one where you "exploited" another owner, you might have more success.
This is a very good point.  Both sides should win in a trade in most cases.  Try to trade with people that have a weakness where you are strong.

Trying to "win" a trade just means you are trying to take advantage of people.  That reputation will follow you.

 
That's fair to say but I'm not expecting to get a top RB for him.  I was looking at something like Tevin Coleman or possibly Jordan Howard.

Was hoping to get lucky and sell Shepard high to a guy willing to sell a good RB low.  Maybe someone like Lamar Miller or someone like that.  I've also been trying to pair Shepard with Tyrell Williams but his game yesterday didn't help.
It is pretty clear that you are the one with screwed up ideas of value. Nobody is touching any of that with a 10 foot pole.

 
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I'm not just trying to "win" the trade.  I'm specifically looking for teams that have plenty of RBs and are weak at WR.  If a team has an abundance of RBs I expect them to be more willing to let go of one in order to get a WR they can start.  I'm alright letting of Shepard and Williams for a mediocre RB since they are both bench WRs for me and I still have Corey Coleman available when he gets healthy.

The mental hang up I keep having is that I don't feel the RBs I can trade for are any better than the RBs I already have.  I had been trying to pair Demaryius Thomas with one of my RBs to get a good RB but that's been shut down too.

 
Do you think Coleman sustains the points he's been getting or do you think he's worth keeping just in case Freeman goes down?  Or both?
Coleman is a flex play ATM with RB1 upside if something happens to Freeman.

Shepard has been very good, but will always play second fiddle to OBJ, so at best he's a WR3 going forward.

Shepard is never going to win you a title, but Coleman could.

So I see why someone would not trade Coleman for Shepard.

 
Its laughable that someone believes people will look at a good start by a rookie WR, on a team with a widely considered top 3 FF WR opposite him, and really consider trading a RB such as Lamar Miller "or someone like that" who people drafted in the early 2nd round after 2-3 weeks.

Not happening.  

As others have stated its not about people overvaluing mediocre RBs, its about positional scarcity and not panicking after a few weeks.

 
Do you think Coleman sustains the points he's been getting or do you think he's worth keeping just in case Freeman goes down?  Or both?
Coleman and Freeman are valuable in their own right.  If one goes down, the other is an automatic RB1, top 5 probably. 

 
"Mediocre" RBs are extremely valuable based on scarcity - what people need to do is be willing to part with pre-season projections and realize the landscape has changed.  Why did I pick THIS year to roll out the zero RB strategy?

 
Now might be a good time to try and buy Cam.  His value will probably never be lower than it is right now.  ATM we don't know if he will miss any time, so an owner not doing so well may as well sell at a discount.

 
What would it take to get a RB like Lamar Miller?  He hasn't been putting up big numbers but he has been consistent.  I was thinking a WR1 and a possible flex RB.

 
Shepard has zero trade value in fantasy. Best used as a throw in. Wrs like him are a dime a dozen in fantasy.

 
Its laughable that someone believes people will look at a good start by a rookie WR, on a team with a widely considered top 3 FF WR opposite him, and really consider trading a RB such as Lamar Miller "or someone like that" who people drafted in the early 2nd round after 2-3 weeks.

Not happening.  

As others have stated its not about people overvaluing mediocre RBs, its about positional scarcity and not panicking after a few weeks.
No one is talking about a straight up trade for that though.

 
People just aren't valuing rookies as well. A guy like Fuller while projected WR30 or better rest of season will fetch you a WR50 or so WR at least in my leagues. People tend not to trust 4 weeks of solid production.

 
What would it take to get a RB like Lamar Miller?  He hasn't been putting up big numbers but he has been consistent.  I was thinking a WR1 and a possible flex RB.
FYI, I traded Carlos Hyde straight up for Allen Robinson.  So I think you're in the ballpark for Miller, as long as that WR1 isn't OBJ, Brown, Julio, or AJ Green.

 
People just aren't valuing rookies as well. A guy like Fuller while projected WR30 or better rest of season will fetch you a WR50 or so WR at least in my leagues. People tend not to trust 4 weeks of solid production.
A WR30 doesn't have that much trade value, let alone a rookie.  If you have an OK RB2, you want at least a top 20 WR for that.

WR30 is usually the 2nd piece in 2-for-2 trades.

 
What to make of Gronk?

I might try Forte/Fuller or Forte Eifert for Gronk.  His roster is a mess and he keeps losing.  Maybe all 3 I'd consider.

 

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