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Fanduel week 5 (1 Viewer)

Snorkelson

Footballguy
On to week 5! If you had a bad week, put it behind you and focus dog!  Let's put our heads together to over analyze the week,  worry about the weather Sunday on Tuesday, pivot off Julio for no apparent reason, tell ourselves that gronk will be a beast with Brady back, see what josh Gordon does (in rehab), and play obj despite his lack of production. To start the overthinking- Brady is back, likely pissed, and playing the Browns.

 
First look at cash lineup-

brady 8700

johnson 9000

west 6400

hilton 7700

matthews 7000

crabtree 6900

rudolph 5500

franks 4500

atl 4200

needed cheap d paid up for qb/rb. Have to play Thursday ticket to roll out Dj. Initially had Ryan and a different D and kicker but Brady has to be the chalk play this week, right? Ryan has been matchup proof so far, but pulls Denver d this week. He's only 7700, so that's still enticing to me. Dj plays the worst run d, west should easily outplay his price. Not buying the Bears defense in Indy, Mathews vs Detroit def (may change if vs slay) but you know stafford can make any game a shootout, crabs still cheap and reliable and vs sd. Rudolph seems to catch a td every week and had to get cheap here. Cheap plays at K and def, not much to say.

 
:lol:

Going to try to not overthink things, but I am sure I will, especially with that Pats game. 

I am just talking cash here for my initial thought after I quickly looked stuff over:

QB:  Ben and Rivers will be the main targets, maybe with some Flacco if I need the cheaper option, but not sure that I will with the Rbs coming up.  Rivers vs. the D giving up the most pass yds, and Ben at home vs a Jets team that is good vs. run, but has been averaging giving up 300yds through the air this year.  I am sure Brady is in play.

RB: Gordon gets the call again, and Bell is matchup proof with the way they seemed happy to use him in the passing game.  Howard is probably a good option if we are looking to save money, and depending on how the week goes, Washington is bad vs. the run, so is West worth a look for 6400? Usually go with Johnson, but he is on Thursday night. 

WR: Brown continues to get more expensive, but as I said above Jets are giving up a bit through the air.  But man - 9600?  Marvin is getting more expensive, but I think we saw his floor this week, and is still under 8000 at 7800.  Sanders and Crabtree are still underpriced at 7100 and 6900.  Don't know how you get away from them.  Getting more looks the last 2 weeks, so S.Smith vs Wash is also probably safe too. 

TE: Honestly not sure what to think here.  Bennett has 2 big days in a row and Cleveland gives up a ton to the TE, but is that who Brady is going to throw to?.  Rudolph is probably the chalk play again at 5500.

DK : Probably just plug in Minn for 90% of them with Houston coming to town.

 
One that I threw together on the fly after above thoughts:

Ben

Gordon, Howard

Marvin, Crabtree, Sanders

Rudolph

Crosby

LA

 
Early look cash game: 

QB - Wentz 

RB - Shady McCoy, Howard

WR - Marshall, Hilton, J. Landry

TE - Rudolph

K - Lambo

DEF - BUF

 
Nobody on Hoyer at $6000 for cash?

He's been in the 18-20 PPG in his two starts.

Indy's giving up 19 PPG to opposing QBs through 4 games (even with SD and Den scoring all their TDs on the ground). Seems like a pretty safe bet to get you 2.5-3x value. 

 
Nobody on Hoyer at $6000 for cash?

He's been in the 18-20 PPG in his two starts.

Indy's giving up 19 PPG to opposing QBs through 4 games (even with SD and Den scoring all their TDs on the ground). Seems like a pretty safe bet to get you 2.5-3x value. 
You are probably right, but just like people threw up in their mouth a little as the suggestion was to put Tannehill in for cash games, the same goes for guys like Hoyer.  Just doesn't feel right.  I guess it just depends where you're more comfortable looking for savings.  Just gotten to the point in cash where I would rather pay up for a QB and throw a guy like S.Smith in there for 6300 or look for a cheap TE than take Hoyer and a high priced WR (unless maybe it's Brown). 

 
A few random gpp thoughts:

Is it a week to try a Rivers stack again? Again in a high scoring game vs a weak pass D, but after what we saw last week people might be high on him in cash, but not gpp as we don't know WTF the ball is going.  Guess right, and $. 

Same with the above - a Brady stack, but with who?  I guess best we can do is look at the preseason games maybe.  Again, guess right and big points (assuming they don't spread it to 9 different guys which is always the risk. 

Are people going to sleep on Wentz after the bye week?  Det is averaging giving up 3tds a game through the air.  Maybe take a chance with Ertz in that stack?

LA is giving up almost 300 yards a week in the air and 200 to WRs.  Might be worth throwing a guy like Woods in a lineup you need a cheap WR for. 

The flip side to that NE game is Blount.  Everybody will be on Tommy B lighting it up, but until Lewis is back Blount will still get his.  Also a much higher chance of them having a huge lead and Blount pounding the Browns into submission for the last quarter of the game. 

Gurley is a guy that might have .0001% ownership after his start to the year.  They are home, favorites, and Buff is actually top 12 in pts allowed to Rbs for the year.  Might be worth a shot to throw him in?

B.Powell has seen 16 targets the last 2 weeks (tied for first with Riddick).  Pitts has coughed up the most rec. yardage to Rbs on the year.  Just like Woods above, could be that cheap WTF option at 5100 if you are loading up with stud WRs in case one of his targets goes for a TD this week in a game they should be getting blown out in. 

 
Nobody on Hoyer at $6000 for cash?

He's been in the 18-20 PPG in his two starts.

Indy's giving up 19 PPG to opposing QBs through 4 games (even with SD and Den scoring all their TDs on the ground). Seems like a pretty safe bet to get you 2.5-3x value. 
I was coming here to say exactly that.  QB sucks this weekend.  If we can take John Fox comments as honest, and im not sure we can, Cutler isn't getting his job back even if he is healthy.  I can understand Brady too, but if Hoyer is starting he's a lock for me

 
I was coming here to say exactly that.  QB sucks this weekend.  If we can take John Fox comments as honest, and im not sure we can, Cutler isn't getting his job back even if he is healthy.  I can understand Brady too, but if Hoyer is starting he's a lock for me
I think I'll have some hoyer lineups as well, hard to not go hoyer west Rudolph and spend on studs, but I'll probably spread out my money, I like the options in the 7k range for wr. May end up with a lot of west exposure. Even if Dixon is active I think it will be a couple weeks before he threatens west, if he does at all. 

 
I was coming here to say exactly that.  QB sucks this weekend.  If we can take John Fox comments as honest, and im not sure we can, Cutler isn't getting his job back even if he is healthy.  I can understand Brady too, but if Hoyer is starting he's a lock for me
Just wanted to pick your brain on this one, and it just interests me how people look at things different.  What is different about this weekend vs. last as far as Qbs go? (unless you didn't like it last weekend either)  Pitts is #2 implied total, and NYJ is bad vs. pass.  Carr is going up against a team that is good vs. run bad vs pass.  Rivers is going against a team that is the worst vs. pass.  Brady is probably pissed and facing Clev.  I guess that combined with thinking AB is teetering on too expensive now, and no other WRs in the 8000s that I see are worth it for cash since Atl is in Denv. 

Long story short, was your comment b/c you just flat out don't like the matchups for the Qbs, or are there expensive WRs/Rbs that you like that you are looking for a cheap option other places? 

 
Lineup I threw together this morning for round 4 survivor

ben

smallwood, cj anderson

green,edelman crab

miller

lambo

minn

 
Getting tougher to ignore Gore every week. He's still priced nicely and it's pretty clear he's going to get the carries. He's home and playing a team that Indy should beat.

 
Dan Hindery said:
Nobody on Hoyer at $6000 for cash?


Tennessee_ATO said:
Getting tougher to ignore Gore every week. He's still priced nicely and it's pretty clear he's going to get the carries. He's home and playing a team that Indy should beat.
I have Hoyer and Gore in my initial lineup...

Hoyer

Gordon, Gore

Brown, Nelson, Edleman

Rudolph

Vinetieri

Buffalo

ETA...meh, not real impressive after looking at it in the IVC.

 
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I have Hoyer and Gore in my initial lineup...

Hoyer

Gordon, Gore

Brown, Nelson, Edleman

Rudolph

Vinetieri

Buffalo

ETA...meh, not real impressive after looking at it in the IVC.
I'm going to get hoyer,gore,gurly and jeffry in a gpp and work from there

 
KarmaPolice said:
Just wanted to pick your brain on this one, and it just interests me how people look at things different.  What is different about this weekend vs. last as far as Qbs go? (unless you didn't like it last weekend either)  Pitts is #2 implied total, and NYJ is bad vs. pass.  Carr is going up against a team that is good vs. run bad vs pass.  Rivers is going against a team that is the worst vs. pass.  Brady is probably pissed and facing Clev.  I guess that combined with thinking AB is teetering on too expensive now, and no other WRs in the 8000s that I see are worth it for cash since Atl is in Denv. 

Long story short, was your comment b/c you just flat out don't like the matchups for the Qbs, or are there expensive WRs/Rbs that you like that you are looking for a cheap option other places? 
So the goal each week in cash contests is to count to 120.  There are dozens and dozens of ways to do that every week so avoid all uncertain situations.  You don't want to give away any edges when you already need to win about 60% of the time to turn a profit.

The numbers say QBS priced above $8000 hit value less frequently than QBS priced below that number.  A perfect example of this last week was Cam.  The reason low priced QBS are ideal is kind of counter intuitive.  QBS score more reliably than any other position, all of them.  High priced, low priced, it doesn't matter.  That is the opposite for other positions, especially RB and TE.  If you can pay up at TE then you always should.  Don't be stupid about it, a gimpy Gronk on a snap count without Brady isn't an option.  Olson and Reed last week were.  

The difference for me this week is just price.  There arent the same WR options in the high 6000s.  Those guys are now low and mid 7000s.  SD is in a divisional match up on the road, I assume one of their 3 ws will produce, but which one?  Rodgers, Brady and Ben are just too expensive.  Carr has the same questions as Rivers, avoid divisional matchups in most situations. I think I like Stafford, but what if PHI really is good?  What if their struggles last week weren't an isolated issue?  Flacco, Wentz, or Cousins maybe, but I think they have a similar floor/ceiling to Hoyer.  Why wouldn't I save the $1500 for an upgrade at TE or RB?

Just don't take risks, if there's a question I don't even want to try to answer it, they're just off my "board"

 
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Give me all the Eli and Odell this week in gpps. Their chances of running the ball are low on the Packers front 7 and they usually show up when you count them out. 

Probably locking Shepard in for cash games as well. 

 
Give me all the Eli and Odell this week in gpps. Their chances of running the ball are low on the Packers front 7 and they usually show up when you count them out. 

Probably locking Shepard in for cash games as well. 
The "you burnt me last week so ownership will be low" gpp team- 

stafford

Gurley

Forte

obj

jones

Benjamin (Travis or kelvin)

gronk

not a viable lineup but ownership on these guys may be lower than they should.

 
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So the goal each week in cash contests is to count to 120.  There are dozens and dozens of ways to do that every week so avoid all uncertain situations.  You don't want to give away any edges when you already need to win about 60% of the time to turn a profit.

The numbers say QBS priced above $8000 hit value less frequently than QBS priced below that number.  A perfect example of this last week was Cam.  The reason low priced QBS are ideal is kind of counter intuitive.  QBS score more reliably than any other position, all of them.  High priced, low priced, it doesn't matter.  That is the opposite for other positions, especially RB and TE.  If you can pay up at TE then you always should.  Don't be stupid about it, a gimpy Gronk on a snap count without Brady isn't an option.  Olson and Reed last week were.  

The difference for me this week is just price.  There arent the same WR options in the high 6000s.  Those guys are now low and mid 7000s.  SD is in a divisional match up on the road, I assume one of their 3 ws will produce, but which one?  Rodgers, Brady and Ben are just too expensive.  Carr has the same questions as Rivers, avoid divisional matchups in most situations. I think I like Stafford, but what if PHI really is good?  What if their struggles last week weren't an isolated issue?  Flacco, Wentz, or Cousins maybe, but I think they have a similar floor/ceiling to Hoyer.  Why wouldn't I save the $1500 for an upgrade at TE or RB?

Just don't take risks, if there's a question I don't even want to try to answer it, they're just off my "board"
Thanks for the response, and it makes a lot of sense.  I think I just remember reading one of the FBG things about FD and it saying to pay up for QBs and TEs for cash games if you could, and that probably just stuck with me.  Just found it odd that there was a lot of heeing and hawing about Tannehill (or was that because there was a QB w/in a 100-200 of him?), and this week people are talking up Hoyer as a must start with Chicago on the road.  Just wondering why that was.  I am sure going the Hoyer route will make it 10x easier to squeeze AB in the lineup. 

 
The "you burnt me last week so ownership will be low" gpp team- 

stafford

Gurley

Forte

obj

jones

Benjamin (Travis or kelvin)

gronk

not a viable lineup but ownership on these guys may be lower than they should.
I like it, but don't forget Cooper!

 
I like it, but don't forget Cooper!
love Cooper this week.

For GPP I'm liking McKinnon and Gurley at RBs. Cooper stacked with Carr is not a bad idea. Julio Jones may be a nice contrarian play (will be interesting to see what his ownership % is, considering the game he just had but is going against DEN).

I will be looking at practice reports for Virgin Green.

 
Thanks for the response, and it makes a lot of sense.  I think I just remember reading one of the FBG things about FD and it saying to pay up for QBs and TEs for cash games if you could, and that probably just stuck with me.  Just found it odd that there was a lot of heeing and hawing about Tannehill (or was that because there was a QB w/in a 100-200 of him?), and this week people are talking up Hoyer as a must start with Chicago on the road.  Just wondering why that was.  I am sure going the Hoyer route will make it 10x easier to squeeze AB in the lineup. 
I have a different take on it. I don't think you can treat positions the same in terms of ROI. IMO you have a serious problem cashing if you don't get into at least the mid-teens @ QB, and I think you need to push 20. Too many QBs get into the 20's every week to be 10 points down at that position. I preached that philosophy in week 1 when everyone was pointing to Dak and the "savings" he could give you. 

The way he's been playing coupled with his overall body of work, I think Ben may be the "safest" play amongst QBs, at least at first blush. I get why Hoyer has some appeal, but he's Hoyer -- the same guy who has proven he can throw for 175 and no TDs. Recency bias can get the best of us if we aren't careful. 

 
I have a different take on it. I don't think you can treat positions the same in terms of ROI. IMO you have a serious problem cashing if you don't get into at least the mid-teens @ QB, and I think you need to push 20. Too many QBs get into the 20's every week to be 10 points down at that position. I preached that philosophy in week 1 when everyone was pointing to Dak and the "savings" he could give you. 

The way he's been playing coupled with his overall body of work, I think Ben may be the "safest" play amongst QBs, at least at first blush. I get why Hoyer has some appeal, but he's Hoyer -- the same guy who has proven he can throw for 175 and no TDs. Recency bias can get the best of us if we aren't careful. 
Granted, they are just projections, but that is what I was staring at last night.  I wrote down positions and was looking at their ratios.  Damn near all were 2.3+, so it's not like the cheap QBs were getting an edge in that department, so I was thinking to myself "wouldn't I rather have the guy who is more likely to get me that 20pts?".  Again, it could just come down to who else you like, and if you like DJ and Brown this week, you have to skimp somewhere else.  

For me, this week is a lot worse at RB than last, and basically have the same 4 rbs written down and they are the top $ ones, and DJ plays on Thurday.  Rudolph is probably a lock, so it's going to come down to tweaking the Qbs and Wrs.  Looking at projections, it seems to be deciding between something like Hoyer and Brown for 20.7 points or Ben and Crabtree for 23.9 points.  (again, simplistic way to look at it, but you get my drift).  That's the case for me, but if somebody likes a couple cheaper Rbs for cash, they won't be looking at it that way either.  That's the beauty of this. 

 
I think I like Stafford, but what if PHI really is good?  What if their struggles last week weren't an isolated issue?  
I'm fading everyone DET this week; Swartz's DEF in Philly is that good, IMO. Big difference with Chip gone and the DEF isn't spending 40 min's or more per game on the field, plus being back in a 4-3, which better suits the players they have. 

 
Good discussion on QBs. My personal take is that you have to try to let emotion and preconceived ideas about needing x amount of total points from QB position and similar benchmarks out of the decision-making process as much as possible and try to follow the numbers. 

Part of my process each week is deciding who the cheapest player at each position is that I am somewhat comfortable using and then calculating how much "bang for my buck" I get in upgrading that player. This quick calculation gives me a pretty good idea where my best opportunities to pay up are and where I am best served trying to find a bargain. 

Let's use David Dodds' early projections as an example and look only at QB and WR:

Dodds has Hoyer projected for 17.4 points. He loves Brady this week (21.6 projection) and is somewhat down on Roethlisberger (18.7 projection). I think I like Ben better personally, but for sake of argument, let's just generalize and say our "elite QB" projects for ~21 points. So we're getting something like 3.5 to 4 points (above Hoyer's 17.4) added to our projected score at a cost of about $2,700 ($8700-$6000). Each extra $1000 we spend at QB is getting us a little less than 1.5 points.

At WR, I've seen E. Sanders and Crabtree mentioned as solid cheaper options (and I agree). Crabtree's projected for 12.6 ($6900) and Sanders 13.2 ($7100). There are a couple other WRs in that price range with similar projections. Let's generalize and say $7000 gets us ~13 points. Dodds projects Antonio Brown for 19.8 points ($9600). So for $2600 we are getting 6.8 points added to our projected score. Each extra $1000 we spend is buying up 2.5 points. (Note: There are similar upgrades available at different price points. Jarvis Landry at $7500 is projected for 14.5 points. So the extra $500 gets us 1.5 points, or 3 per $1000.)

Based upon David's projections, we're getting almost twice as much bang for our buck (2.5-3 points per thousand vs. 1.5 points per thousand) using our limited cap space to "pay up" at WR than we are at QB. 

 
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  This is pretty much how I start my lineups each week. I usually start with a guy or 2 I consider must plays add the cheapest QB option I think will have a big game and then go from there. For GPPs I start with a QB/WR stack in a game I think will be higher scoring than is indicated by the vegas line.

 
I have a different take on it. I don't think you can treat positions the same in terms of ROI. IMO you have a serious problem cashing if you don't get into at least the mid-teens @ QB, and I think you need to push 20. Too many QBs get into the 20's every week to be 10 points down at that position. I preached that philosophy in week 1 when everyone was pointing to Dak and the "savings" he could give you. 
you are thinking about this incorrectly.

also using dak wk1 as an example is a bad one.  he was an excellent play.  it was very unlucky that he didnt account for any tds and even then he still made value.

with a cost of 6k, hoyer only has to get TWELVE fdp to make value.  thats not a very high bar.  then account for the fact that hes looked ok and how bad indy is and its not hard to see hes a pretty solid play this week.

 
you are thinking about this incorrectly.

also using dak wk1 as an example is a bad one.  he was an excellent play.  it was very unlucky that he didnt account for any tds and even then he still made value.

with a cost of 6k, hoyer only has to get TWELVE fdp to make value.  thats not a very high bar.  then account for the fact that hes looked ok and how bad indy is and its not hard to see hes a pretty solid play this week.
I don't think you have an easy path to winning a cash game if you only get 12 points @ QB.

And FWIW, I think the notion of 2x salary being "value" isn't valid. Every position is different. Getting "2x" salary at QB isn't a very good return IMO. 

 
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I don't think you have an easy path to winning a cash game if you only get 12 points @ QB.

And FWIW, I think the notion of 2x salary being "value" isn't valid. Every position is different. Getting "2x" salary at QB isn't a very good return IMO. 
I agree.  Because QB is so "safe" and someone's bound to disappoint i am looking for 2.5x from the QB.  

 
Rounding this back to Hoyer in Week 5.... he put 20 against the Lions.  He put up 19 against the Cowboys.  Dodds has him not at 2x or even 2.5x but nearly 3x.  

So who's more likely to hit 3x value... Hoyer, who has done so each of the last two weeks (at his current price point), or Brady to hit 26 points in his first game back, not having played since Pre-4, with a gimpy Gronk (if at all)?  Sure, that's certainly possible for a QB of his caliber and if we buy into the 'pissed off' narrative, plus he does have a good matchup with CLE (but so does Hoyer with IND).  Seems that Hoyer is the better GPP play and Brady possible the better cash play, as the chances of Brady putting up less than 2x are less likely than Hoyer putting up less than 2x.  

For Dak, week 1 was the aberration for his season.  He was $5k that week, and only hit 10 points so "only" 2x.  Every other week he would've been a tourney winner at that price point -- 18, 23, 18 points for over 3.5x, over 4.5x, and over 3.5x (assuming still priced at 5k).  I don't think you can point to that 1 week where he only hit 2x value and say "See? I told you so" when his performance over the other 3 weeks shows that a starting QB with rushing ability priced at $5k is a no-brainer.  His price was an anomaly that week, as he and every other starting QB should be priced at a minimum in the 6k-7.5k range.

 
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I don't think you have an easy path to winning a cash game if you only get 12 points @ QB.

And FWIW, I think the notion of 2x salary being "value" isn't valid. Every position is different. Getting "2x" salary at QB isn't a very good return IMO. 


:goodposting:

 
Anyone else feel like fading Brady this week in both GPP and cash? 

Seems like his ownership will be extremely high, but I think there is significant chance that he takes a week or so to bounce back to Brady form. I get a feeling that I can gain a significant advantage if Brady fails.

 
I'm fading everyone DET this week; Swartz's DEF in Philly is that good, IMO. Big difference with Chip gone and the DEF isn't spending 40 min's or more per game on the field, plus being back in a 4-3, which better suits the players they have. 
agreed - I know this is FanDuel but DK has Eagles def @ 2900 - I'm all over that.

 
Anyone else feel like fading Brady this week in both GPP and cash? 

Seems like his ownership will be extremely high, but I think there is significant chance that he takes a week or so to bounce back to Brady form. I get a feeling that I can gain a significant advantage if Brady fails.
yeah, fading him in GPP, and with that, fading Edelman / Bennett. Maybe it bites me in the ###, but I am liking the Patriots DEF as a pivot play.

 
Anyone else feel like fading Brady this week in both GPP and cash? 

Seems like his ownership will be extremely high, but I think there is significant chance that he takes a week or so to bounce back to Brady form. I get a feeling that I can gain a significant advantage if Brady fails.
Leaning that direction as of today. I worry about the fact that Matt Jones rushed for 117 yards and a TD last week against Cleveland. With Blount playing so well, doesn't it make sense to try to ease your 39-year old QB back in a little bit by pounding the rock in his first week back?

I get the narrative angle with Brady pissed off and trying to come out of the gates swinging. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big game at all. But I also think there's a very real chance that the Patriots come out with a balanced gameplan and Blount cashes in a rushing TD or two, which leaves Brady with an average fantasy score. 

 
I don't think you have an easy path to winning a cash game if you only get 12 points @ QB.

And FWIW, I think the notion of 2x salary being "value" isn't valid. Every position is different. Getting "2x" salary at QB isn't a very good return IMO. 
Agree that you're looking for closer to 2.5x at QB (so at least 15 out of a $6K guy). Every position is a little different target multiple, with WR and TE being the lowest. QB the highest with RB, K and D in between. 

But I actually think looking at it through that lens makes a cheap QB like Hoyer even more compelling. 15 points is a pretty low bar. 2.5x out of Brady requires 21.7 points. 300 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs is 20 points. You're pretty much banking on 3 passing TDs just to get to your 2.5x minimum value. 

 
Anyone else feel like fading Brady this week in both GPP and cash? 

Seems like his ownership will be extremely high, but I think there is significant chance that he takes a week or so to bounce back to Brady form. I get a feeling that I can gain a significant advantage if Brady fails.
Cash, no.

gpp I am leaning Blount/NE def this week, if anything that game.

 
Dan Hindery said:
Leaning that direction as of today. I worry about the fact that Matt Jones rushed for 117 yards and a TD last week against Cleveland. With Blount playing so well, doesn't it make sense to try to ease your 39-year old QB back in a little bit by pounding the rock in his first week back?

I get the narrative angle with Brady pissed off and trying to come out of the gates swinging. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big game at all. But I also think there's a very real chance that the Patriots come out with a balanced gameplan and Blount cashes in a rushing TD or two, which leaves Brady with an average fantasy score. 
This is NE vs. Cleveland. It is possible for both those narratives to be true.  Could be 35-7 at the half, Brady gets his, then Blount takes over. 

 
First crack at a cash like entry:

Hoyer

Gordon/Freeman

Brown/Landry/Matthews

Rudolph

Crosby

Vikings

 

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