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Solid point, and I suspect very accurate. Packers took away Hoyer's favorite weapon and the guy who was the Bears most consistent receiver.
And this is where a team's lack of offensive ingenuity and inability to adjust as the game goes on gets exposed. If a defense takes away your top or a top weapon you don't just give up, you come up with ways to free that weapon so you can get the ball to him. The Bears never did that with Meredith. I realize they were down to their third-string QB but the play I mentioned earlier was a very simple one they could have used to get the ball to Meredith for a potential big play that gets their big-play WR back in the game and perhaps gets their offense going and potentially gives their new QB some badly needed confidence. Instead they do nothing, Green Bay crushes them and game over.
I don't think that you should get too hung up on the outcome bias here. What free agents did you miss out on in the past from being overly cautious?
I don't have the numbers either, but I think the fact that Drew Bennett is still the example that we all remember for this backs up your point that it probably doesn't happen very often. That was 12 (!) years ago now.
yeah, that and Matt Barkley happened, so ... Hoyer would have salvaged at least a decent game in garbage time. Barkley threw two picks and was totally lost.
its all probabilities. Some of the best experts were proj Meredith as a borderline WR1 last night. Just cos you bet on red and it came up black don't beat yourself up as saying it was a bad strategy. Nobody could have predicted the Hoyer injury. Injuries happen, but the strat was sound.
At one point, you could see Barkley take a huge breath and release it as if to say, "Here we go again..."
i'm not going to sidetrack this thread any further but if you'd like you can PM and we can discuss it there. Trust me there's a list of players on my WW who I likely will not have a shot at picking up because of my situation now due to this bid on Meredith. It's exactly the type of move I've made in the past that I wanted to avoid making this year. I really do think that saving money in FAAB for the end of the season has its advantages and it's a mistake I was hoping to avoid. I like to think I'm a good fantasy player for the most part and that's why I'm extremely ticked at myself today for making what I consider a rookie mistake here. I fell for the shiny new toy at the store and it may end up costing me big time. Like I said, the good news is my team is really good but I'm still irked at myself for the mistake I've made. That's why I just wanna get to next Wednesday and FAAB so I can fix it and move on.
That's kinda ridiculous though because this isn't a situation where you picked a guy who didn't live up to the hype. You just picked a guy whose QB got sidelined.
Hoyer only 11 attempts. He had 43 and 49 attempts in the previous two games. so about 1/4 and 1/5th the attempts when he went down. There was plenty of time for Meredith connections, especially if they fell behind in garbage time. How many games have gone by where your WR is sitting with 1 catch in the 1st half and he goes off for 20+ points in the 2nd. I wouldn't read to much into 11 attempts.
I didn't say there wasn't time for Meredith to still get production. I just said he went an entire half without a single reception and I believe just one target and i'm not even sure if that was a catchable ball. The game wasn't trending positvely for him at all, unlike the prior two. And when you consider how overwhelmingly strong the matchup was I think it's fair to say the results at that time were rather surprising to say the least.
So you thought highly enough about a guy after one or two games that you "overpaid" for him and now think he's worthless after one game? Players, especially WRs (even studs like OBJ and Julio) have bad days.You and others can say spending over 40% of my remaining FAAB on Meredith wasn't a mistake because there's no way to have known Hoyer was going to get hurt and that messed everything up and I appreciate that. But the fact is I am upset with myself for breaking one of my top rules I vowed not to break going into this year and now I'm stuck in a position I didn't want to be in.
The only way to fix it is to get to next Wednesday and spend the small amount of FAAB I still have left to find a replacement for a player whose value I now think has fallen off considerably. Until then I'm going to be rather upset at myself although I'm hoping that on Sunday things go so well that the memory of Brandon Meredith's disappointing Thursday night is quickly forgotten.
Apologies for sidetracking the thread
First off, he isn't a stud player like those two. Second he just lost the QB who was providing him with the targets that were directly providing him with the production that was leading to the value he was generating. I think I've outlined the reasons why I believe his value has now fallen off dramatically from where it was prior to last night. Things change quickly in this game, sometimes for the worse. Look at Antonio Brown. His value has declined despite the fact he is the arguably game's best wide receiver. Meredith's value has changed as well. As I said before everyone has to deal with the situation based on their own leagues and rosters etc.
Yeah hence the "even studs like" - but you missed the point on bringing up those two apparently. And maybe it wasn't Hoyer that made him a stud, maybe he's just good and saw heavy targets because of that (or for other reasons). He could have done well when Cutler was playing, but White was starting in his spot then. And guess what? White saw more targets from Cutler than Jeffrey did.
And as I posted with my Kevin White numbers I don't have faith in Cutler's ability to involve the No. 2 WR in this offense which is why Meredith will be back on the WW in my league when FAAB runs next Wednesday night.
True but most fans probably wouldn't put down two scores with 7 minutes to go in the fourth quarter like Bowles did two weeks ago so there's that.
Yea. They would go for it on 4th and 10 in the first quarter and then disconnect when they failed. I've played enough Madden over the years to know how Johnny Q Public calls games.
I don't play Madden so I can't comment on that. I just know how often NFL head coaches fail at the most simplistic of things that common sense dictates they could easily correct. Something tells me they often make the game more complicated then it needs to be. Maybe John Q. Public couldn't fix all of their many mistakes but I think a good portion of them are a lot easier to fix than they would be willing to admit.
Yup. My thoughts haven't changed from last week. My league has tight roster limits so there are better options available in my opinion so I'm gonna make bids for them and hopefully I'll get one of them tonight. Just sucks I spent so much on Meredith last week and now I'm handcuffed in terms of what I can spend to try and replace him. Cutler is definitely a huge upgrade over Barkley obviously but given how little involvement White had in the offense I'm not confident Meredith will do much. Huge bump for Jeffery though so his owners have to be feeling great now.Chaka said:
I feel good about it. He's a player. This week is a tough matchup however. I wouldn't start him unless I had no good options.Gandalf said:
If Rhodes shadows Jeffery tonight, Cutler will have to throw Meredith's way. I wouldn't be surprised if he got into the endzone.
I added him in both leagues / should be a lock for 3-5, 50-70 and maybe a TD.
Definitely hope. Cutler has to throw to someone. I've had Meredith on my bench for awhile. Thankfully I don't have to start him this week but it could work out fairly well for the next few weeks. I'd say he's worth a pick up if you can sit him this week and see how it plays out. If you're desperate this week you could do a lot worse than Meredith.
