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Fanduel Week 7 (1 Viewer)

NixonMask

Footballguy
I don't know about you guys, but I am queing for for one of the year end live finals this week!

Roster construction is going to be alot tougher for the main slate this week.  Between the Thursday night, Monday night, London game, and the byes there are only 12 games this week.
1.  I do not see how you fade Julio Jones this week.  Obviously things may change, but I expect to have near 100% exposure in cash and GPPs.  I will be surprised if he has less than 15 targets and against that sawft San Diego secondary he should put up a monster line.  Rivers should be happy to bomb it right along with Ryan, but who benefits there is alot tougher to figure out.
2.  This is the week we get some positive regression at depressed ownership spots.  Dennis Pitta has gone 3 years and two major hip surgeries without a TD.  That streak ends on Sunday.  The TD streak, not the hip surgery streak.
3.  DeMarco Murray let alot of people down last week against a weak rushing defense.  But come on, they didnt need him last week.  Whats surprising is he even had as many touches as he did.  I think most people pay up for McCoy (which I wont be doing), or pay down for Bell or David Johnson.  I think he is the lowest owned of the four and I expect him to put up the biggest line.
4. Alex Smith let alot of people down.  I had my concerns with the OAK/KC game last week, but I am loving Maclin this week.  I dont think I can pull the trigger in cash, but I have a feeling he is in line for a big game and because of the stinker last week he comes at a lower ownership.
5.  My instinct is to have alot of the Oak/Jax game, but Jacksonville is sneaky good against the pass.  If Carr has problems again (and they are a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game) and Bortles continues to be as bad as he has been so far I can see this turning into a 17-10 crapfest.  Almost all of Allen Robinsons production is limited to a few big plays this year too.  I can just as easily see the Raiders secondary being the thing to get Bortles right and this game turns into a 35-30 back and forth type game.
6.  Theres really only two discount plays I can see assuming Doug Martin and the Detroit RBs are healthy:  C.J. Uzomah and Michael Thomas.  Maybe the Chargers guys?  If we know Desmond Trufant is going to be primarily covering one of the two, maybe the other?

 
I have decided for the rest of the season I am only going to play GPPs.

I only play $10-15 per week and have much more fun try to construct a GPP lineup than I do crafting a cash lineup. Depending on the number of lineups I feel comfortable starting, will determine the number of tourney's I will play.

Played $13 this week in 5 GPPs and paid back $18 so a solid week to start.

 
I have decided for the rest of the season I am only going to play GPPs.

I only play $10-15 per week and have much more fun try to construct a GPP lineup than I do crafting a cash lineup. Depending on the number of lineups I feel comfortable starting, will determine the number of tourney's I will play.

Played $13 this week in 5 GPPs and paid back $18 so a solid week to start.
This x100.  While I like winning $ in any format, cash lineups are nowhere near as fun.  Feels like the same core group of 50 players every week.  It's more fun to dig for the gems and look at other stuff for sure. 

That said, I just get too frustrated with the gpps.  I know it's damn near impossible to win them, but two weeks in a row I have been in the top .5%+ of a contest just to see "winning $6".  That's why I wondered if I would be better off money wise putting more of these into the 100 person contests and are more likely to at least get 10-25X on your $. 

On the flip side, I would be super mad the one time I put in a 200pt lineup into a contest just to win $25 instead of 1000s. No easy answers.

 
Are you playing large GPPs or small single entry?  There are the 500 person contests, the cut lines will be similar to the large contests, but the score to win tends to get lower relative to the number of the people in the contest.

 
Good post, Nixon.  Sure it's tougher with only 12 games on the main slate, but as I said in the other thread, I think this week looks to be more fun and have more variety.

Looking at the projected totals, there are team we are used to seeing at the top not there.  As of today when I wrote them down, AZ, NO, Seattle, and SD are outside of the top 12 teams for projected scoring (I just looked at the 24 teams involved in the main slate) and aren't projected at more than 23 points.  They are replaced with the likes of KC, Jax, Wash, TB, and a couple others that we aren't used to seeing there too much. 

Combine that with the matchups, and it kinda looks like the opposite of last week - pay up for WRs and maybe look elsewhere than the very top of the heap for RB.

We are talking cash here, and mostly at the start of the week I just look at pts allowed at positions and projected points. 

QBs: I think it is still between Brady and Ryan here.  Brady will have no mercy on a Benless Steelers team, and Ryan faces a still depleted SD team.  The only other one I like on initial pass is Rivers at 7800.  Might free up something to make sure you get a Julio in there.  Atl is coughing up the 4th most FD points to Qbs as other teams have to play catch up. 

RBs: Honestly after posting my above statement, I am still staring at this.  I think there are options, but not sure how clear cut they are.  To me, D.Murr is this week's McCoy or Miller.  Tenn favored at home, and Indy doesn't have an answer for anybody at that position.  They are one of the 3 D's that are top 10 in rushing and passing yds allowed to Rbs, so I think DMurr is safe.  Another D that qualifies is NO, who is giving up the most pts. to rbs this year.  Problem is, do we trust that situation enough?  IMO at only 7000 I still like Ware here for cash, but will look at that more.  I think that Freeman is probably #2 on my list as of right now.  Heavy favs, and SD allows pts to the RBs.  Of the high priced guys, I would say McCoy is probably the safest.  AZ/Seat is projected low scoring, and those Ds are no joke. NE will focus all their attention on Bell with Landry at the helm in Pitt.  Martin gets a juicy matchup coming off injury and the bye, but is he safe to trust in cash?

WRs: I think this is the week to try to get a couple studs - is it possible to get a cash LU you like with Julio and Green? As far as WRs in the 7000s, I think Crabtree comes back into play vs. Jax.  Also Marshall at 7400.  Haven't looked much at cheaper options yet, but I would think that the SD Wrs come back into play for this game, as do :gulp: whoever we think Cousins is throwing to - I think Garcon seems to have his eye the last couple weeks. 

TEs:  I liked the two parked at 5800 Henry and Bennett. 

 
LOL.  After all that, I tried to play with rosters, and it is still hard getting a top Wr in there.  I really like Murray, and if I am going with Freeman, that puts me with Rivers or Brady.  Brady forced me into 2 low level WRs.  Anyway, this was a first attempt LU based on my ramblings above:

Rivers

D.Murray, Freeman

Marshall, Crabtree, Garcon

Bennett (wouldn't be opposed to stacking Henry here)

whatever

Minnesota

Will really have to think about this.  Dropping down from Freeman to Ware would get me more of an Evans type of Guy, but not sure If I could get to Green.  Will have to look at these cheap Wrs all week.  Don't really like that WR3 I posted above. 

 
For gpp I was going to start looking at these 3 games where both teams are projected in the top 1/2 this week for scoring:

Indy @ Tenn

Oak @ Jax

Wash @ Det

After seeing what Keenum did to Det and they allow the most points to QBs, and are in the top 10 for allowing points to Wrs and TEs as well, I think a good place to start would be Cousins.  Not sure which Wr he might like as I said above, but if Reed is still out, a Cousins/Davis stack is super cheap sneaky option at 11,800 for the pair.  Not sure I have the stomach to try Bortles again, there are some great Qbs to choose from in these games for potential stacks.

 
My first go at a LU.   Cousins looks interesting,  but on the road.   Want some Maclin,  but cant swing it if I want Jones.   I could do Maclin,  and drop to Riddick(if healthy). 

Brady

Murray / Ware

Jones / Benjamin / M. Thomas

Pitta

Lutz

Patriots at 4400 or Bucs at 4300

 
Are you playing large GPPs or small single entry?  There are the 500 person contests, the cut lines will be similar to the large contests, but the score to win tends to get lower relative to the number of the people in the contest.
Playing in large GPPs. Usually 1 $5 and then the remainder of my $8 or so I mix between $1-2 large GPPs and a combo of single and multiple entries.

First try at GPP lineup this week

Rivers

McCoy/Blount

Mike Evans/JLandry/JCrowder

Hunter Henry

Matt Bryant

NEP

 
My first go at a LU.   Cousins looks interesting,  but on the road.   Want some Maclin,  but cant swing it if I want Jones.   I could do Maclin,  and drop to Riddick(if healthy). 

Brady

Murray / Ware

Jones / Benjamin / M. Thomas

Pitta

Lutz

Patriots at 4400 or Bucs at 4300
Just curious, do you usually stay away from road QBs, or is this just for cash?

Also, this is the 2nd mention of Maclin in this short thread.  Why do you guys want in on that action this week?

 
Last season Cousins was like Brees/Roethlisberger with home/road splits. 

I am a KC fan.   Their secondary is banged up and lost their #2 corner,  not sure status on this week.  Points will be scored.  Saints secondary is bad,  weather should be better.   Mac is due for a nice stat line,  plus gets the targets typically. 

 
Last season Cousins was like Brees/Roethlisberger with home/road splits. 

I am a KC fan.   Their secondary is banged up and lost their #2 corner,  not sure status on this week.  Points will be scored.  Saints secondary is bad,  weather should be better.   Mac is due for a nice stat line,  plus gets the targets typically. 
Gotcha on Cousins

I was looking at that game as well, I was just trying to decide why it will be different than last week.  KC at home this time and favored, you mention Brees' road splits, one of the toughest places to play at, and NO's rush D is worse than Oakland's and two very talented RBs.  When I was looking here, it just felt like a repeat of last week. 

 
It is a repeat for sure,  just think it happens.   We will have to see where the experts have him ranked and projected.    I will have some shares. 

 
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From the gut line up that I'm not going to jack with this week unless someone is out.

Stafford 

Murray  Rogers 

Julio  Tate. Crabtree 

Henry

Succup 

Pats

 
It is a repeat for sure,  just think it happens.   We will have to see where the experts have him ranked and projected.    I will have some shares. 
Cool, I just chuckled to myself b/c they burned us last week and might suck us right back in this week because of that matchup. 

MT has Maclin at WR22 and Smith at QB10. 

 
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Same thing happened last week - link in the column on the left showed up before the link on the main page on the right and it didn't work. 

 
Also having trouble accessing DFS week 7 page.  I know the FBG big dogs talked about charging additional money for a DFS subscription next year -- I hope that means things will be up and content will be put out early. 

 
I only  became a subscriber last year for strictly  the dfs content.   I know pricing was going up,  but hope thats not the case on having to pay extra for dfs. 

 
So looking a little more at the cheaper backs I actually like Mark Ingram.  I didn't expect that.  The o/u is really high, brees struggles on the road, Ingram is better on the road, and the Chiefs are surprisingly not great against the run.

 
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So looking a little more at the cheaper backs I actually like Mark Ingram.  I didn't expect that.  The o/u is really high, brees struggles on the road, Ingram is better on the road, and the Chiefs are surprisingly not great against the run.
He is another guy that pulls me in every now and then b/c the Saints are involved in all the high o/u games and he throws a dud every time.  Also salty because I drafted him this year in a couple leagues, along with Hopkins and Allen. 

 
I've started to not really look at matchups/player prices till Wednesday when content starts to churn out... regardless I just looked and some players I'm interested in

QB: Brady/Dalton (vs. CLE)/Ryan

RB: J. Rodgers (if D. Martin sits)

WR: AJ Green, Julio, Evans

TE: DOYLE (only 4.4k I believe and Allen is out)

DEF: PATS (only 4.4k)

Love Meredith(WR) for Thurs night locks.

 
I've started to not really look at matchups/player prices till Wednesday when content starts to churn out... regardless I just looked and some players I'm interested in

QB: Brady/Dalton (vs. CLE)/Ryan

RB: J. Rodgers (if D. Martin sits)

WR: AJ Green, Julio, Evans

TE: DOYLE (only 4.4k I believe and Allen is out)

DEF: PATS (only 4.4k)

Love Meredith(WR) for Thurs night locks.
missing a RB here...  ETA - nevermind, doesn't look like a lineup just players ofinterest

I was looking at J. Rodgers as well.  High volume guy who is cheap to free up $$ for WR.  Anyone considering Landry Jones?  Risky, for sure, but another cheap guy who will play from behind...could easily return value.

Here's an attempt to get bug gun WRs and also snuck Gronk in there...

Jones

Gordon, Rodgers

J. Jones, Green, Wright

Gronk

Nugent

Philly

Had to pivot away from plan to use NE Def going with Landry.  Not excited about Wright, but need to save somewhere to get high powered guys in there.  Could replace Wright with teammate, Sharpe, or someone like Conley vs NO...meh.  Overall, this looks a little too risky for cash which is what I typically play.

 
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I dont think I can do Landry Jones this week.  In his two spot starts last year he didnt produce, I dont know what is different this time.  I would almost even prefer the uncertainty of Kaep to the likely mediocrity of Jones.

The more I think about the WAS/DET game the more I like DeSean Jackson this week.  For GPPs of course.  Last week coach was talking about wanting to get him the ball to keep him happy in a contract year.  Last week he got the targets, but it didnt translate to production.  I can see that translating this week in a big way against a bad Lions secondary on turf.

 
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Detroit is #31 vs wr 1 dvoa per football outsiders.   Is that Garcon or Jackson.   Which is odd cause Slay is a good corner.  #18 vs #2 wr and #32 vs othet receiver.   Could be a spot for Crowder. 

 
That seems wrong.  Last week Britt lit them up, Tavon did nothing.  No Eagle did anything.  Royal lit them up and Alshon didn't do much.  Nelson did destroy them.  Are we calling Delanie WR 1 for TEN?  Because he's the only guy that did anything there.  And even TY wasn't the biggest producer for the colts.  Maybe they're classifying Britt as WR 1 and had Moncrief as WR1 for the Colts, but I wouldn't.

I can't get behind Crowder his target share has evaporated.  I do like Garçon though.



Edit:  So just looking at Detroits defense they have allowed 17 passing TDs this year.  10 have gone to receivers lining up on the right side.  7 within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and 3 from beyond 15 yards of the line.  Of the remaining 7 TDs they have given up this year 5 were within 15 yards of the line straight up the middle of the field and only 2 have been thrown to the left side of the field.
On Washington, DeSean Jackson runs 53% of his routes on the right side.  34% of his routes are within the 15 yard mark where Detroit has given up the majority of their TDs.  In contrast only 34% of his routes were run on the left side.

In the red zone DeSean hasnt received many looks.  Neither has Crowder.  Over the last 3 weeks DeSean has had 3 red zone targets.  Crowder has had 2.  Garcon has had 6.  4 of Garcons targets have come on the right side in the red zone.  All 10 of Detroits TDs given up on the right side have been in the red zone.

 
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I dont think I can do Landry Jones this week.  In his two spot starts last year he didnt produce, I dont know what is different this time.  I would almost even prefer the uncertainty of Kaep to the likely mediocrity of Jones.

 
Yeah, he has better weapons, but I personally wouldn't touch Landry either.  I would much rather find the few extra hundred and trot out Kap or Kessler. 

 
I got you, yeah.  I was think you meant he had better weapons this week than he did last year.
No, sorry.  Was saying Landry is cheap and has better weapons vs. the other cheap Qb options, but I would still look at the others first.  Pats D is good in general, and are scarier now if they know they have to worry a lot less about the passing game. 

Now watch, they will go there and lay an egg like Pitt did in Miami last week..

 
So a few more observations.  These are all passing stats only.

1. Most defenses allow the majority of their TD receptions to one side of the field.  For Oakland that is the left side of the field.  They have given up a total of 12 receiving TDs this year.  9 were thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, across the middle of the field or to the left side.  7 of 8 red zone TDs allowed were throw there.  Allan Robinson's target distribution is fairly equal across the field.  Allan Hurns primarily runs on the right and over the middle.  Marquis Lee is actually the receiver that produces the most on the left side.  Julius Thomas could be the biggest beneficiary though, 72% of his targets are on the left and over the middle within 15 yards of the line.
On the other side Jacksonville is weaker against the pass on the right side than they are on the left.  63% of Crabtrees targets are on the right and 49% of Coopers targets are on the left.  76% are on the left or over the middle.  The red zone TDs Jacksonville have allowed have been evenly distributed though.

2.  If you are going to have success against the Vikings pass defense then they are weakest on the left side and over the middle within 15 yards.  That is probably Dorial Green Beckham.  The right side is a wasteland and that is where 72% of Mathews targets have come from this year.

3.  All of the red zone passing TDs Pittsburgh have given up this year are on the left side or over the middle, within 15 yards.  Thats not James White, but since Brady returned 2 weeks ago that is where 76% of Edlemans targets have come from.

4.  All 6 of New Orleans red zone passing TDs have come on the left side or over the middle.  Maclin doesnt see many red zone targets, but the targets he does have are evenly distributed.  63% of Kelce's targets are on the left or over the middle though.  New Orleans is actually pretty good against the pass on the right side, and they inexplicably got better after Breaux went down with injury.  Both Maclin and Kelce have fairly even target distributions though.
Everyone lines up everywhere on New Orleans and KC is fairly even across the field on defense.  The one place KC does look a little vulnerable is over the middle beyond 15 yards.  That is probably Fleener.  I hate Fleener.

 
I love Berry, but he is a liability in pass coverage, or had been in the past.  There was an article on arrowheadpride last year analyzing KC Defense with and without Berry.

Without Berry the Chiefs defense did significantly better against the pass, slightly worse against the run, and significantly better in points allowed on average.

Another quick comparison....

  • The Chiefs with Berry held their opponents to less than their average passing yards61.5 percent of the time. Without Eric Berry they held their opponents to less than their average passing yards 100 percent of the time.
  • With Eric Berry the Chiefs held their opponents to less than their average rushing yards 69.2 percent of the time. Without Eric Berry the Chiefs held their opponents to less than their average rushing yards 37.5 percent of the time.
  • With Eric Berry the Chiefs held their opponents to less than their average points scored 69.2 percent of the time. Without Eric Berry the Chiefs held their opponents to less than their average points scored 87.5 percent of the time.

 
So a few more observations.  These are all passing stats only.

1. Most defenses allow the majority of their TD receptions to one side of the field.  For Oakland that is the left side of the field.  They have given up a total of 12 receiving TDs this year.  9 were thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, across the middle of the field or to the left side.  7 of 8 red zone TDs allowed were throw there.  Allan Robinson's target distribution is fairly equal across the field.  Allan Hurns primarily runs on the right and over the middle.  Marquis Lee is actually the receiver that produces the most on the left side.  Julius Thomas could be the biggest beneficiary though, 72% of his targets are on the left and over the middle within 15 yards of the line.
On the other side Jacksonville is weaker against the pass on the right side than they are on the left.  63% of Crabtrees targets are on the right and 49% of Coopers targets are on the left.  76% are on the left or over the middle.  The red zone TDs Jacksonville have allowed have been evenly distributed though.

2.  If you are going to have success against the Vikings pass defense then they are weakest on the left side and over the middle within 15 yards.  That is probably Dorial Green Beckham.  The right side is a wasteland and that is where 72% of Mathews targets have come from this year.

3.  All of the red zone passing TDs Pittsburgh have given up this year are on the left side or over the middle, within 15 yards.  Thats not James White, but since Brady returned 2 weeks ago that is where 76% of Edlemans targets have come from.

4.  All 6 of New Orleans red zone passing TDs have come on the left side or over the middle.  Maclin doesnt see many red zone targets, but the targets he does have are evenly distributed.  63% of Kelce's targets are on the left or over the middle though.  New Orleans is actually pretty good against the pass on the right side, and they inexplicably got better after Breaux went down with injury.  Both Maclin and Kelce have fairly even target distributions though.
Everyone lines up everywhere on New Orleans and KC is fairly even across the field on defense.  The one place KC does look a little vulnerable is over the middle beyond 15 yards.  That is probably Fleener.  I hate Fleener.
Lol, did I see a dgb shout out? There is your less than 1% guy for gpp.....

 
Galileo said:
missing a RB here...  ETA - nevermind, doesn't look like a lineup just players ofinterest

I was looking at J. Rodgers as well.  High volume guy who is cheap to free up $$ for WR.  Anyone considering Landry Jones?  Risky, for sure, but another cheap guy who will play from behind...could easily return value.

Here's an attempt to get bug gun WRs and also snuck Gronk in there...

Jones

Gordon, Rodgers

J. Jones, Green, Wright

Gronk

Nugent

Philly

Had to pivot away from plan to use NE Def going with Landry.  Not excited about Wright, but need to save somewhere to get high powered guys in there.  Could replace Wright with teammate, Sharpe, or someone like Conley vs NO...meh.  Overall, this looks a little too risky for cash which is what I typically play.
Might want to take a look at M Lee for the cheap WR

 
NixonMask said:
So a few more observations.  These are all passing stats only.

1. Most defenses allow the majority of their TD receptions to one side of the field.  For Oakland that is the left side of the field.  They have given up a total of 12 receiving TDs this year.  9 were thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, across the middle of the field or to the left side.  7 of 8 red zone TDs allowed were throw there.  Allan Robinson's target distribution is fairly equal across the field.  Allan Hurns primarily runs on the right and over the middle.  Marquis Lee is actually the receiver that produces the most on the left side.  Julius Thomas could be the biggest beneficiary though, 72% of his targets are on the left and over the middle within 15 yards of the line.
On the other side Jacksonville is weaker against the pass on the right side than they are on the left.  63% of Crabtrees targets are on the right and 49% of Coopers targets are on the left.  76% are on the left or over the middle.  The red zone TDs Jacksonville have allowed have been evenly distributed though.

2.  If you are going to have success against the Vikings pass defense then they are weakest on the left side and over the middle within 15 yards.  That is probably Dorial Green Beckham.  The right side is a wasteland and that is where 72% of Mathews targets have come from this year.

3.  All of the red zone passing TDs Pittsburgh have given up this year are on the left side or over the middle, within 15 yards.  Thats not James White, but since Brady returned 2 weeks ago that is where 76% of Edlemans targets have come from.

4.  All 6 of New Orleans red zone passing TDs have come on the left side or over the middle.  Maclin doesnt see many red zone targets, but the targets he does have are evenly distributed.  63% of Kelce's targets are on the left or over the middle though.  New Orleans is actually pretty good against the pass on the right side, and they inexplicably got better after Breaux went down with injury.  Both Maclin and Kelce have fairly even target distributions though.
Everyone lines up everywhere on New Orleans and KC is fairly even across the field on defense.  The one place KC does look a little vulnerable is over the middle beyond 15 yards.  That is probably Fleener.  I hate Fleener.
Love this stuff, keep it up!  Let me guess, you are getting this from the site that would confuse Stephen Hawking?

I will figure that site out one of these days...

 
Knile is a decent receiver,  and has some wheels.  Just was buried on the depth chart and had some inopportune fumbles.   He only had a couple games were he got say 16-18 plus touches a game.    When he had chances to get going he did alright.  Probably not the best vision, but i would take  him over Starks 

 
Knile is a decent receiver,  and has some wheels.  Just was buried on the depth chart and had some inopportune fumbles.   He only had a couple games were he got say 16-18 plus touches a game.    When he had chances to get going he did alright.  Probably not the best vision, but i would take  him over Starks 
Looking more and more like Lacy and Starks will both be out Thursday night

 
Thoughts on JJames this week?  I can see this game playing out with NE taking a big early lead and LJones/Pitt playing catch up for most of the game and 30% of Jones' passes are to non WRs with the majority of those going to HMiller who is gone.  They also logged a lot of practice time together prior to Heath retiring so they know each other well.

 
Wednesday look at Cash LU cores

Brady/Murray/Freeman/Gronk/M Bryant/NE- Will also use this core in some larger GPPs

Ryan/Murray/Freeman/JJones/MB/NE- Will also use this core in some larger GPPs

ADalton/Murray/Freeman/AJ/ MB/NE

Just can't see me getting away from Murray/Freeman at RB in Cash

Some possible GPPs

Bortles/Murray/ARob

Stafford/Martin or TB RB/Marvin

Cousins/Ware/Garcon

Mariota/McCoy/Walker

Taylor/Murray/JJones/Buff

Rivers/LBell/Hunter

 
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Going to think out loud for cheap gpp options.  I am mostly looking for cheap Rbs, as I am looking load up at WR this week.  Not really looking at cheap TEs too much either, but will throw a couple out there.  Remember, my feeble brain can't handle the fancy sites and stats, I mostly am just looking at scoring allowed at positions, yards, yds/attempt, implied pt totals, etc.. 

QB (under 7K):

Kaepernick 6500:  IMO it begins and ends here for the most part.  For starters, he brings the rushing ability to the table, so that should bring the floor up a bit.  AT home, Hyde is dinged, and it's better to attack TB through the air, as they do cough up a fair amount of points to the WRS.  20pts and you are at tourney value.

Kessler 6600:  Just like the GB/Dallas game last week, my eyes keep coming to this game.  Problem is, it's looking like Pryor is dinged up, so that really drops his value, and make it so I am not looking him any more.  BUT, there are only two games that I saw where there are 2 teams going head to head where the D's are top 10 as far as FD points allowed to Qbs/game.  One is the SD/Atl game everybody is on, the other is this turd game.  Clev is #2 for most pts allowed to QB, and Cin is #7. 

RBs (under 6500):

Gio 6300:  Cleveland sucks and Cinc should dominate this game.  Hill has been dinged up, but Gio is out touching, looking better, and getting more RZ looks the last couple weeks, plus he is 500 less than Hill.  Cleveland does allow the 6th most rush yds/game.

Riddick 6300:  Keep track of the injury, I haven't looked at that stuff yet to be honest.  Wash is a D I circle every week, as they are one of the 4 Ds that are top 10 in yds/att, yds/game, and td/game allowed to Rbs.  We will get to another couple in a little bit. 

Coleman 6200:  Best boom/bust of this 6000 salary club.  Last I looked, Atl's implied total was at 30, so you have to think about getting pieces of that in your LUs.  SD gives up the 4th most points to RBs and the 2nd most rec yds to rbs.  It seems like Coleman has this fun e/o week thing going for his 20+pt games, so hopefully that keeps up this week!

White 6100:  Just like the Atl situation, you probably want to look to get pieces of NE's O where you can.  Pitt is #5 for pts/game to Rbs, #7 for yds/att, #3 for rec.yds to RBs.  He does get 7-8 rushes a game too.  Don't think Lewis is quite there yet, so maybe one more week of production from White?

J.Rodgers 5600:  the SF rush defense is THAT bad, folks.  Again, another of those Ds that are top 10 as far as yds/game, yds/att, and TD/game given up to RBs.  This is probably a must play if Martin is a no-go or limited.  Honestly, this is might be a good play in general.  Rodgers did quite well vs. a tougher Car D, so I wonder if we will see a KC situation even if Martin is a go, and they ease him in, especially if TB gets up on them early.

Ivory 5500: Jax favored at home, and as we saw last week, Oak rush D is as bad as their pass D.  This is the 3rd of the D's I have been looking at with Wash and SF that are top 10 in the 3 categories I listed.  I also found it interesting that Ivory got the RZ looks last week over Yeldon....

Duke 5300:  Not so sure on this one as much.  Cin. shows up in the top 10 for both rush yds allowed and rec yds allowed to RBs.  This is a game that Cleveland is expected to be dominated in, and they are losing options left and right.  Might be that Duke and Barnidge are all that's left for Kessler to throw to.  Has the boom/bust factor, but Cincy's D is getting healthier too. 

WRs (under 6K)

Of course, keep looking at Meredith and Thomas the other 2 that stuck out as I looked for cheap stacks:

T,Smith 5600:  Kaep comes in, and the WR targets even out and now Smith is getting looks.  Got a TD and barely missed on a 2nd last week.  TB can be attacked through the air, and are #9 for pts allowed to WRs, #2 for TDs/game, and #4 for yds/attempt to WRs.  They are also fairly tough vs. the run, so again, SF might have to take to the air at home.

M.Lee 4500:  Come on, he's 4500 and it's the Oak D.  They are allowing the 5th most pts to Qbs and the 3rd most points to WRs.  Hurns did see more action last week than he has all year, but Lee has also been producing.  Won't take much to get 3x value, and this is huge savings to upgrade elsewhere. 

TEs  (under 5000)

Again, didn't look too far here.  I might be damn near at 100% on Bennett this week unless Eifert is back, so didn't poke around a ton. 

Uzomah 4800: Clev has been torched vs. TE this year.   If Eifert is out, might be worth a look, but he hasn't produced much in other decent situations though. 

V.Davis 4500: Again, he's 4500 and if Reed can't go will be part of the offense.  Det is #1 for pts allowed to QBs and #4 to TE.

This week I am all about trying to get the WR studs going.  Using these options, I have been able to put together LUs with all 3 of Julio, AJ, OBJ for Thurs games, and getting Evans in there for other games.  Also have a Thurs LU I like that I was able to get DMurr, Freeman, AJ, and Evans in.  We will what I like as I tweak around more. 

Here are some stacks that are cheap (around 12000 total or less) and allow you to load up on studs:

Kaep + T.Smith = 12100

Bortles + Lee = 19000

Cousins + Davis = 11800

and the super duper, not the for the faint of heart special:

Kessler + Duke = 11900

If you plug all of these into the IVC (at least with just MT's projections last night) they are all starting at +2x for their combined projections.  I am curious to look at other projections and poke around more though

Here are my current 2 favorites for less than 15K that could easily reach 45+ points:

Brady + Bennett = 14900

Ryan + Coleman = 14900

Another cheap one that I am sure lots will be using for the Thurs-Mon slates is:

Hoyer + Meredith = 12600

 

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