draftkings week 7 (1 Viewer)

Seems like most people here prefer fanduel but we will keep this going for now.  Coming off a great week we try to keep it rolling.

QB:

Think I will save some here.

Detr v Wash:  Like both QB's here think it could be a shootout and neither runs very well.  Stafford is playing real well and Lions defense is real poor.

Bortles:  Like the matchup, solid predicted total, and its at home.

RB:

McCoy and Murray both look good again.

Whoever starts for TB gets the best matchup of the week.  Question at this point is Martin's status.

Cheap option is Hill as this looks like it could be his type of game.  Weak opponent and Bengals are heavy home favorite.

WR;

At the top Jones and Green both look like great options.

Down a tier I like D Jax, Maclin, and A Rob.

Cheapies are Montegomery and Wright.

TE:

Grok is back but his price is high which may make look elsewhere.

Doyle is a great very cheap option if Allen is out.

Henry looks to have moved pass Gates in the game with highest predicted point total by far.

DT

May be hard to come off the Pats against L Jones.  Ravens are also reasonably priced against a struggling Jets team no matter who is at QB.

My first look I have a lot of the same likes as you do.

QB - Cousins, Taylor has been known to light Miami up in the past as well. 

RB - McCoy, Murray, Freeman

WR - Crowder (with Reed possibly out I like Crowder in a good matchup as a possible stack). I like paying up for Green.  Keep coming up with Tate as my 3rd WR which I don't really like coming off the big week.

TE - Henry, although that was before it seemed like Allen was out for sure, will look at Doyle as well.

D - Ravens seem like my weekly cheap option.

Actually Washington does run well. DVOA #4 rushing the ball per football outsiders 

Well J Rodgers is a must for cash now.

I will be using Montgomery in both my th-mo cash lineups.  In the IVC charts I see Dodds likes him a lot but the MT and SB don't like him at all.  Quite a difference of opinion on him.  He is my NO1 WR this week.

Meredith is still a great play this week also. Doyle is also a nice punt play at TE. 

jandyt thanks for keeping this going, I will try to contribute a little more in here. I play both, but actually prefer DK over FD. 

I just started looking at this last week, but last week anyway the cutoffs were higher on the Sunday Only slate than they were on the T/M or S/M slate. 

I usually enter 3 cash LU's each week. One in the Thur/Mon slate in case I like anyone in that game and if not it's always a great fade. Then 2 more in the Sunday Only or S/M slate. This week I decided to not play any in the Sunday Only slate and played all three in the Thursday/Monday slate. I think you can get away with this on DK, because of the ability to change players after kickoff. I probably wouldn't do it on FD. 

Be curious if anyone else has any stats or thoughts about the cash cutoff differences in each slate. 

My "Core Cash" players for this week

QB- Brady, Rivers, Dalton 

Brady is Brady. I love Rivers this week. He is going to have to wing it to stay up with Atlanta and I think he is a lock for over 300yds passing. I like Dalton as a Cheaper option and think he has 300 yd potential. He scares me a little with the game flow. If they get up big they could get real conservative and just run the ball. I also considered Bortles and Cousins. 

My QB strategy on DK is different that FD. I always try to pick QB's that can get the 300 yd 3 pt bonus on DK. The exception would be a running QB that can make up not getting the bonus by rushing for 30 yards in the game. Taylor, Mariota, Kaep, 

RB - Murray, Ware, Bell, Freeman, Charles, Rodgers

Murray is the chalk play for a reason. Rodgers is just as chalk at his price point and matchup. I like Freeman in a high scoring game, and it gives me some variance from chalk. The KC backfield reminds me a lot of the Atlanta backfield now. Ware and Charles will be used the same way as Freeman and Coleman. The difference is on KC they have the king of the chuck and duck Qb in Alex Smith throwing to them. Ryan will chuck it down the field to Julio. Ware is still the top guy right now, but I think they are just great plays on DK. 

I do like the call on Hill. Bernard has been playing more lately because they have been behind and Hill is banged up. They will have the lead this week and I think Hill is way under priced. The only worry for me is his health. I just don't think he is fully healthy. I'm not going to take a chance on him in cash games this week

WR - Julio, AJ, Arob, Evans, Cobb, Meredith, Ty Will, Garcon, Montgomery. 

Another reason I like the Thur/Mon slate is because of the value at WR with Meredith and Montgomery. I also like Cobb but wouldn't play him in the same LU with Montgomery. I love the Passing games of both San Diego and Wash this week and I am just guessing on who I think will benefit from that with Ty Will and Garcon. I'm taking a chance for sure, because it could just as easily be Benjamin and Crowder or DJax. The top guys speak for themselves. They all will be heavily targeted and are in good matchups. 

I am still not sure if I want to take a chance on Garcon or Ty Will yet, may go in and change to someone else with less risk. I won't play Ty Will with Hunter in same LU. If Reed plays for Wash, I will take Garcon out. 

TE - Gronk, Hunter Henry, Doyle.

Gronk is who he is and I like him every week, but most of time can't afford him. With some value at RB/WR it opens some cash up. Henry is my main guy this week, he was lining up all over the field last week and is a big part of the passing attack. Doyle is super cheap and with Allen out is going to reach value easily IMO. 

Like I said I make 3 cash LU's each week. I usually go cheap at TE, but I will put an high priced guy in 1 of my LU's to change things up if I can find the money. 

Def - Minn, Ravens, Tenn. (Denver is my fav, but can't afford them in most cases)

Minn has been the best all year and don't see that changing coming off the bye. I like the Ravens against Geno Smith. Tenn won't stop Indy, but they will get some sacks and turnovers form Luck, and just a cheap option. I like Denver the best by far, and may do some switching around to get them in my LU's. They are going to be motivated against Brock and when he gets pressure, he sucks. Pick 6 is on the board for sure this week. 

Just another thought on my process. I stack my QB's with a receiver in cash games a lot of time.  I know the experts say to do otherwise most of the time. I just think it makes sense to me that if you think the QB is a great play than so are his targets. Plus I also play my cash LU's in triple ups, 10, 20, 40 man leagues, not just double ups and 50/50's. 

Ok, after posting earlier this morning I went and finalized my 3 cash game rosters. I did make a few changes to some of the players. 

I took Brady out and put Ryan in - Miami ran all over Pitts last week, and I can see the Patriots doing the same thing. The Pats are always a wild card on offense. They may throw it 40 times or stick with the running game, you never know. I feel like Ryan is a safer play and gives me a little wiggle room to get rid of some risky Wr plays. 

I didn't like my defenses at all so I decided to go with the ones I like. I worked Denver in, still have Minn. and added NE. Tenn and Ravens are out. I went ahead and put Blount in with the NE defense. If it goes like I think, he will run all over Pitts. I also added Bennett in at a TE spot taking out Doyle. 

Finally at WR I got rid of Garcon, too risky, and added TY and Tate to my rosters. I had to drop Bell at RB to make room for TY in that LU.

All 3 of my cash LU's have a QB/WR stack. Dalton/AJ, Rivers/TyWill, Ryan/Julio. One also has a Blount/NE Def stack with it. My Rodgers exposure is pretty high, but it's hard to pass on that value. If he bust, I didn't spend much on him, and it enabled me to upgrade other spots to make up for it. 

I have been sucking on DK this year, so haven't done much with it.  I did throw in a Thurs gpp just to get Montgomery in the LU on the cheap for tonight.  Seems everybody is on the WRs this week, so I went back to the stud RBs. 

Dalton

David, D.Murr

AJ Green, Garcon, Montgomery

Bennett

Freeman

Minny

Tonight's game

Overall I think this will probably go over the 46.5 line.  So the question becomes who to play.

QB:  Won't consider Rogers price is still too high for how he has been playing.  Could be a sneaky GPP play just not for me.  Hoyer is interesting as the Packers are down their top 3 corners and he has been rolling but still think he is more for GPP than cash.  Could still see him laying a stinker on the road although probably not.

RB: Don't see anything here. Matchup is tough for Howard and there are lots of better options.  Green Bay's top RB could be a WR so nothing there.

WR: Montgomery will be in both my cash lineups.  His likely volume and very low price make him a almost must play.  Could see Nelson as a GPP play.  For the bears Meredith is a great play and will be in one of my two lineups and its tempting to put him in both.  Jeffrey also has a lot of upside here as Green Bay has no corner even remotely in his league.

TE: Hoyer likes Miller so he is clearly in play but there are just a number of TE's I like better.

DT: No way I would touch either of these DTs.  If Green Bay was at full strength maybe you gamble they crush the bears at home but a banged up as they are no way.

With Adam active I going to only go with Montgomery in one cash lineup.  Meredith and Jeffrey also each in one lineup.

Rudolph is super cheap for some reason and also Clay seems a good play with no shady in a #revenge spot

Feels like a pay down week at RB with Rodgers and Gillislee so cheap.

Can fit in 2 or 3 elite receivers (Julio, AJG, Evans, Hilton, Marshall) if you go cheap at RB.

Well Meredith turned out to be a awful pick although in cash he didn't really hurt you as his ownership numbers were massive 75%-85% in the contests I looked at.  If you one of the incredibly rare players, under .1%, who used Adams in a GPP then kudos to you.

Dan Hindery said:

Feels like a pay down week at RB with Rodgers and Gillislee so cheap.

Can fit in 2 or 3 elite receivers (Julio, AJG, Evans, Hilton, Marshall) if you go cheap at RB.

Click to expand...

I can't see not have 100% Murray 

freeannyong said:

I can't see not have 100% Murray 

Click to expand...

He is going to be hugely owned in both cash and GPP. He makes a lot of sense as a 3rd RB. I still haven't decided if I like him better than the $7K options at WR like Hilton, Marshall, Evans, etc though. My early lean is towards passing on Murray this week. I know it's a tasty matchup against Indy, but he's had 2 targets or less in 2-of-3 recent games. If I'm paying way up at RB, I want a guy who I feel really good about getting 5+ targets. Murray's going to be highly TD dependent to reach 3x (~22 points). 

Edit to add: Murray will also be tough from a game theory perspective. Assuming he's going to be at 75-80% in 50-50s, do you just plug him in there so he doesn't ruin your week if he scores a couple times? Or do you risk trying to get a leg up on the field getting an extra elite WR into the lineup? Still early, but I could see myself running 3 lineups and playing DeMarco in one to hedge a little bit instead of completely fading.

I had a pretty good week with all my cash LU's cashing except 1. It scored 156 and still didn't cash in anything. High scoring week for sure. My top cash LU got 184, and have 168 with Denver defense still to play. A lot of the Chalk went off this week. 

My best entry was 207 pts in the millionaire GPP, easily the highest I've scored. I've noticed that if I follow Bloom's "H-value" for WR and then pair that with the advice of both Mike Clay's WR/CB match-up chart and then reading that 'worksheet' article on rotoworld, it usually turns out pretty well.

M. Mariota

M Gordon

J Rodgers

TY Hilton

J Jones

M Thomas

J Doyle

C Patterson

Bengals

pbandy1,

Wow, the C. Patterson call was nice. Just curious as to what you made out with at 207 points in the millionaire app. I have only gotten over 200 a few times and all of them have been this year. I scored 204 in a $3 GPP this week and won $30. I have not been playing any big entry stuff until this week and of course I scored a whopping 147 points with my 1 entry this week. 

I am like you in a lot of ways with my research. I use FBG and Rotogrinders both. FBG has been not getting there stuff up very quick lately so been relying more on Rotogrinders info. Both have great tools. 

Where is that Wr/Cb matchup chart you mentioned? 

KarmaPolice said:

Where is that Wr/Cb matchup chart you mentioned? 

Click to expand...

I used to go to PFF last year when Mike Clay was doing it, but he's on ESPN now. He does a chart that IMO is slightly more accurate for ESPN insider. I basically pay for ESPN insider for that chart lol.

sorry I stacked Mariota with Walker, did not have Doyle in that line-up.

Sitting on 156 in 1 cash LU, with the Denver defense tonight. I think if I get 8-10 out of them I can get in the money with that LU. I hope they are really mad at Oswieler! Which I don't know why they would be, the guy they got is probably better.