David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

2,376 posts in this topic

After the content Knotts put out last year for CFB I am in.  This is actually the first DFS content I have ever paid for.

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4 hours ago, NixonMask said:

After the content Knotts put out last year for CFB I am in.  This is actually the first DFS content I have ever paid for.

lol wat?  i though knotts cfb info was pretty bad last year.  the ivc let me down almost on a weekly basis and one week he even told me to play a rb who ended up not even traveling with the team.  i lost pretty much every week following his advice/ivc.

 

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quick preview seems like this is a solid product.  my only question/concern would be how you are dealing with the last minute news that breaks on a nightly basis in the nba?

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26 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

lol wat?  i though knotts cfb info was pretty bad last year.  the ivc let me down almost on a weekly basis and one week he even told me to play a rb who ended up not even traveling with the team.  i lost pretty much every week following his advice/ivc.

 

I certainly can't speak for other people, but I did very well.  I entered anywhere from 1-5 lineups in the large GPPS a slate and placed 2nd twice, another top 10 finish and a 14th I believe.  I also had 2 top ten finishes on Yahoo.  I even managed to cash the KotC final without my QB after he got sent home from the bowl game.

I assume you are talking about Corey Clement on Wisconsin?  I remember that situation because of how screwed up it was.  The beat reporters did not do their job, there was no news, literally no mention anywhere, that the star RB did not travel with the team until rosters locked.

Edited by NixonMask

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18 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

quick preview seems like this is a solid product.  my only question/concern would be how you are dealing with the last minute news that breaks on a nightly basis in the nba?

 

We have people everyday monitoring that late breaking news.  We will have a feed (like our Sunday Update page) where we will log the biggest stories right before the games start.  Additionally (just like how we do NFL), we will be updating the projections and IVS real-time as these tweaks are happening.

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21 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

lol wat?  i though knotts cfb info was pretty bad last year.  the ivc let me down almost on a weekly basis and one week he even told me to play a rb who ended up not even traveling with the team.  i lost pretty much every week following his advice/ivc.

 

 

Hi Sooted, 

Sorry you didn't have a great experience last year with college football, we had several GPP winners who won a lot of money last year including two who made it to the live final. The one downside to college football as you mentioned is that news isn't readily available, the one situation that you mentioned if I remember was Corey Clement who was listed as probable by the team's beat writer in an article released that morning.

Was our product perfect? Absolutely not, and I take credit for any of the misses that we may have had.

1 minute ago, sooted72 said:

quick preview seems like this is a solid product.  my only question/concern would be how you are dealing with the last minute news that breaks on a nightly basis in the nba?

 

 

Now onto this question, we are attacking last minute news a few different ways.

1) We are going to be having a breaking news page where we will be monitoring all of the sources that we can to provide key injury news and how to react to this when building your lineup.

2) We have someone who is updating our projections up until game lock.

3) Three days a week on the big slates we are going to be having an article called, "The Butterfly Effect", this article previews the day regarding which players are questionable and gives you some key things to look out for if that player sits.

The best part about all of this is that we are free for the first month for everyone to go out and try our product to see if it is for them. We hope you give us a shot.

 

 

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haha yeah thats right it was corey clement...

fwiw devin answered all my questions and went out of his way to help me and felt so bad about that incident that he even offered to refund me some money (which ofc i refused).

 

but yeah lets move on lol.  this product looks sweet and i will def buy it post thanksgiving if i like nba dfs.

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9 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

We have people everyday monitoring that late breaking news.  We will have a feed (like our Sunday Update page) where we will log the biggest stories right before the games start.  Additionally (just like how we do NFL), we will be updating the projections and IVS real-time as these tweaks are happening.

yeah an updates page like sunday mornings sounds like the perfect way to handle this.

random:  while we're talking about the ivc is it possible to make it so that you can get the new projections without it clearing your lineup out?

if you dont know what i mean ill give an example.  every sunday ill make all my lineups in the ivc.  say like 10:00 am.  i like to keep checking on when the ivc is updated but theres no way to do that without it clearing out your lineup every time you refresh.  hopefully i explained that correctly.

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On the IVC's it will say what time the projections have updated. Is this what you're referring to? Please see the bold wording below.

This is an interactive value chart for FanDuel using projections by Maurile Tremblay ("MT"), David Dodds ("DD"), and Sigmund Bloom ("SB"). (The "SB" column's kicker projections and defensive projections are by David Dodds.) Choose whether you want to view projected points, projected value, or H-value. Projected value is equal to projected points divided by salary (and then multiplied by 10,000). H-value is equal to projected points raised to the square root of three, divided by salary (and then multiplied by 2,000). H-value, a measure inspired by Dan Hindery, is often a better indicator of true value than points per dollar. Click on the column headings to sort by that column. For example, if you want to sort by Dodds' projected value, first you'd click on "Value" at the top, and then click on the "DD" column heading. (Projections are current as of 10/19/2016 at 6:44 pm (EDT).)

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I struggled in CFB,  but by my own doing,  just dont follow college.   Devin noticed my struggles from my woe is me  posts in the CFB thread,  and reached out via pm.   Stand up dude.  Appreciate his take on the blog and power grid.

I dont follow NBA,  but will throw a few dollars that way to test things out, maybe make a NBA fan out  of me. 

 

Edited by DukeBroadway
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I tried CFB on very small basis last year but really couldn't get into it even though I love my Wolverines more than any sports team by far.  Think I ended up about even on CFB but just didn't enjoy the process.  As for the NBA I don't enjoy it at all anymore and while I play DFS with the hopes of making money I have to enjoy the process.  I can't imagine enjoying doing NBA DFS because I don't even enjoy the NBA.  But good luck to those who do play it.

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On 10/19/2016 at 9:06 PM, Devin Knotts said:

On the IVC's it will say what time the projections have updated. Is this what you're referring to? Please see the bold wording below.

This is an interactive value chart for FanDuel using projections by Maurile Tremblay ("MT"), David Dodds ("DD"), and Sigmund Bloom ("SB"). (The "SB" column's kicker projections and defensive projections are by David Dodds.) Choose whether you want to view projected points, projected value, or H-value. Projected value is equal to projected points divided by salary (and then multiplied by 10,000). H-value is equal to projected points raised to the square root of three, divided by salary (and then multiplied by 2,000). H-value, a measure inspired by Dan Hindery, is often a better indicator of true value than points per dollar. Click on the column headings to sort by that column. For example, if you want to sort by Dodds' projected value, first you'd click on "Value" at the top, and then click on the "DD" column heading. (Projections are current as of 10/19/2016 at 6:44 pm (EDT).)

yes this is what im talking about.  if you have your lineup in and want to see the updated numbers you have to refresh.  if you do that it clears out the lineup.  i think there should be a 'refresh' option (for lack of a better term) where you press it and it keeps your lineup held with the most recent timestamp and updated stats (if theres been one since the last time you refreshed it).

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Did you guys hire @Chaos Commish. Or @MikeMan. Both have done work in the NBA thread the last few seasons.

And $25 for the season is a steal, most good NBA content is $20 a month. Looking forward to it. 

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10 hours ago, freeannyong said:

Did you guys hire @Chaos Commish. Or @MikeMan. Both have done work in the NBA thread the last few seasons.

And $25 for the season is a steal, most good NBA content is $20 a month. Looking forward to it. 

Hey thanks. I wasn't contacted, not that I should have been. I'm a flake. But I am excited for nba dfs. Gotta a kid going to college next year. The best time to make hay has been early in the season the past few years. Prey on all the nba-novice nfl business drifting over for a little action. David, freeannyong is wrong about me, but right about MikeMan if he wants to help out. This is his site, and he seems fired up again.

Couple notes. DraftKings has gone to an early lock. That's not good for me as I've been able to exploit late lineup changes many time over the past couple years. They've also gone to more flexible lineups. I'm happy with that. I will be in a gpp at near max entries several times in the next few weeks. :excited:

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the price makes it zero risk to sign up.  I'm looking forward to see what you guys can do in NBA dfs.  

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I'll give it a look. Don't really watch or follow NBA but tried it out some last year in the dead zone  between NFL and MLB. Played a few weeks until I lost $30ish. It seemed that almost every time I lost a guy to late night scratch early injury or foul trouble.

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Is there going to be a link to the hoopsguys content on the main page?

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Looking forward to this.  I've been a basketballmonster guy for a few seasons but they just recently jacked their price for DFS content up to $130 a season which I can't justify when I play low stakes.  If you can keep the price similar to a fbg membership and provide the quality content and projections that you're known for then I think you can grab a decent % of the fantasy bball market.  All the other premium projection sites are absurdly priced

Also,what sites will you be supporting for the IVC?  A similar group to the Football charts or just FD and DK?  I'm only asking because I mostly play on Yahoo and FantasyDraft.  I assume it won't be hard to implement projections for other sites as it basically just involves plugging in the scoring and salaries but just curious

Edited by mogizzle
another Q
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On 10/22/2016 at 8:47 PM, mogizzle said:

Looking forward to this.  I've been a basketballmonster guy for a few seasons but they just recently jacked their price for DFS content up to $130 a season which I can't justify when I play low stakes.  If you can keep the price similar to a fbg membership and provide the quality content and projections that you're known for then I think you can grab a decent % of the fantasy bball market.  All the other premium projection sites are absurdly priced

Also,what sites will you be supporting for the IVC?  A similar group to the Football charts or just FD and DK?  I'm only asking because I mostly play on Yahoo and FantasyDraft.  I assume it won't be hard to implement projections for other sites as it basically just involves plugging in the scoring and salaries but just curious

 
 

One of the main reasons that we are venturing into this is due to the high cost of other competitors. Any feedback that you have for us to help us improve during this first few weeks would be greatly appreciated as we look to build this product.

From an IVC perspective, we are starting with FD and DK, but our hope is to include Yahoo and FantasyDraft soon. The late announcement by DraftKings to change to multi-player eligibility has our tech team working on adjusting the IVC's to accommodate that but it is more difficult and time-consuming than we had originally thought.

To give you guys some behind the scenes look, with multi-player eligibility the number of iterations that the IVC has to run increases exponentially. For example, Evan Turner who is SG/SF eligible, is eligible to play at SG, SF, G, F, Utility. When the algorithm runs, the goal is that it returns a response back to you in a timely matter, and doesn't time out when hundreds of people are running it at the same time.

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Great! I'm looking forward to what's in store and will try to offer feedback when I can.  Thanks for the behind the scenes look at the IVCs.  I never thought about how much the multi-player eligibility would increase the complexity of the algorithm.  Try to keep us updated on the development of new features and when we can expect other sites to be added

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Very excited for this product. I'm optimistic about what you guys can produce. Looking forward to seeing it!

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2 minutes ago, Shermanator said:

when will the IVC be up and running? NBA starts tomorrow

I've been wondering this as well. Curious about some kind of announcement and/or some kind of update to the Hoopsguys & FBG page. 

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Will there be slate break downs on a daily basis or just providing IVC's/projections. 

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Ask and you shall receive. 3,000 words for a 3 game slate. Would love feedback if you guys want to see anything additional let us know.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/basketball/apps/article.php?article=2016NBADeepDive_10_25_16

All of our material is now located on hoopsguys.com, the link should be working if it is not please let me know.

6 hours ago, Timmay said:

Will there be slate break downs on a daily basis or just providing IVC's/projections. 

 

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So the gpp rake is close to 18% now?  This seems like a huge nut to crack.

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2 hours ago, Steeler said:

Any word on when the IVC will be available?

I want to be completely transparent with you guys, the latest update that I have FanDuel one will be available tomorrow a few hours before tip-off barring any additional technical issues. As soon as I know something I will let you guys know our tech team is working on this as a priority for tomorrow. I am not a tech guy by any means but I will let you know what I currently know as of this moment. There is a bug in the code that is preventing the optimizer from auto filling the optimal solutions. Our tech team is spending the day trying to debug this to find the error.

Below is the FanDuel IVC web page, as you can see the page is all setup and ready to go, but we are unable to release it as it is not working properly.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/login/preview-article.php?article=NBA_IVCFanDuel

This is obviously not an ideal solution on the day that the NBA is launching, but I want to be as up-front about it as possible.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

So the gpp rake is close to 18% now?  This seems like a huge nut to crack.

If you're just looking at the $4 $1M contest, I think they have intentionally built some overlay into this thing, as there is no way that it will come close to filling. It looks like the normal GPP's are in the 14% range.

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15 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

I want to be completely transparent with you guys, the latest update that I have FanDuel one will be available tomorrow a few hours before tip-off barring any additional technical issues. As soon as I know something I will let you guys know our tech team is working on this as a priority for tomorrow. I am not a tech guy by any means but I will let you know what I currently know as of this moment. There is a bug in the code that is preventing the optimizer from auto filling the optimal solutions. Our tech team is spending the day trying to debug this to find the error.

Below is the FanDuel IVC web page, as you can see the page is all setup and ready to go, but we are unable to release it as it is not working properly.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/login/preview-article.php?article=NBA_IVCFanDuel

This is obviously not an ideal solution on the day that the NBA is launching, but I want to be as up-front about it as possible.

I continually get prompted for my credentials when I click the link even after I enter them, so I can't see the IVC.  Also, it looks like it's not working yet... another great roll-out of a new product by FBGs.  

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Never done NBA before so dumb question - what do the cash lines look like in the contests?  No idea what I am shooting for here. 

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21 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Never done NBA before so dumb question - what do the cash lines look like in the contests?  No idea what I am shooting for here. 

3 game slates are really tricky and hard to put a cash score threshold on this small of a slate. If Golden State puts up 120 compared to 95 then the cash line is going to be higher.

300 on FanDuel is typically what you're shooting for, but some nights it is 280 some nights it is 320, it really just depends on which players go off that night. For example, if Russell Westbrook is 50% owned tomorrow which is likely and he puts up 60 compared to 20 it will significantly change the cash line.

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Yes, both are updated at the same time. We have a database behind the scenes that feed both.

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For you hoops noobs, ownership percentages are nothing like NFL action. 70% ownership isn't uncommon in cash games with even a pretty big slate. I've always thought ownership was a bit overblown in NFL cash analysis, but it's critical in NBA analysis. 

Enjoy it -- there's no comparing it to NFL in terms of the entertainment value. It's truly a daily contest and the action is much higher pace than NFL. 

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What time of day should we expect the IVC to be updated. Its still on yesterday

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