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David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

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also how do you feel about ty lawson.  i noticed you have him way down there.  given the aforementioned fast paced matchup and the 30-40 minutes should he be higher?

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1 hour ago, Devin Knotts said:

 

Good catch, we fixed that. We were doing some testing with DraftKings IVC multi player eligible and he was listed as PG first.

Also, I wanted to give you all an update, as I am not happy with our team's execution on day 2 and the release times.

Here are the standard release times that we are striving for. I am holding the team accountable to these deadlines, as we need to get you guys the information faster and earlier. We have run into a few little minor issues which will happen and not going to make excuses on this as we have been delayed.

GPP-Contrarian- Noon EST

Deep Dive- 3 EST

Projections/IVC Noon EST

FD has MTurner as a C

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14 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

 

Good catch, we fixed that. We were doing some testing with DraftKings IVC multi player eligible and he was listed as PG first.

Also, I wanted to give you all an update, as I am not happy with our team's execution on day 2 and the release times.

Here are the standard release times that we are striving for. I am holding the team accountable to these deadlines, as we need to get you guys the information faster and earlier. We have run into a few little minor issues which will happen and not going to make excuses on this as we have been delayed.

GPP-Contrarian- Noon EST

Deep Dive- 3 EST

Projections/IVC Noon EST

Devin, 

Good work so far. Im with you on the delay, I would be on my team to be shooting for those times you have listed, as I think those are perfect time frames for each of those releases on normal tip off times of 7-8 est. This will be my 5th NBA DFS season this year and i'm definitely interested in what i'm seeing here. I wouldn't mind being a contributor at some point myself. :shrug:

As far as suggestions:

How about a value play article? Something where you look at plays under 6k or so on each site that you think will be good plays for the slate because of injuries, usage or minutes boost or trending up recently.

I dont know if you will add this, because it is still early in the season, but how about a DvP section in the deep dive. 

Also, something minor, Are you able to add the actual time that the article is released on the top of each article? This would help differentiate between news that was released at Noon compared to something at 6pm, instead of just having the date listed. The news/updates on each could be a huge difference. 

Keep up the good work. 

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Don't know anything about college football and finished the season up a couple hundred thanks to Devin. I like that this is happening for hoops this season and that Devin is involved.

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3 hours ago, Timmay said:

Devin, 

Good work so far. Im with you on the delay, I would be on my team to be shooting for those times you have listed, as I think those are perfect time frames for each of those releases on normal tip off times of 7-8 est. This will be my 5th NBA DFS season this year and i'm definitely interested in what i'm seeing here. I wouldn't mind being a contributor at some point myself. :shrug:

As far as suggestions:

How about a value play article? Something where you look at plays under 6k or so on each site that you think will be good plays for the slate because of injuries, usage or minutes boost or trending up recently.

I dont know if you will add this, because it is still early in the season, but how about a DvP section in the deep dive. 

Also, something minor, Are you able to add the actual time that the article is released on the top of each article? This would help differentiate between news that was released at Noon compared to something at 6pm, instead of just having the date listed. The news/updates on each could be a huge difference. 

Keep up the good work. 

11

We are releasing an awesome article that will be 3x a week called the Butterfly Effect it will be released tomorrow, which is exactly what you are talking about due to minutes usage or trends.

DVP is coming, the reason we don't have it in there right now is that it is last year's data and with all the movement in free agency it isn't that reliable this early in the season. 

Will add time stamps to the articles going forward that is an easy fix. 

Will reach out once things are stabilized, i want to do some cool things where we have guest writers write an article or two to give people a chance to crack into the industry who are interested in it. I was fortunate to get started in this type of a program and want to help others who are interested in writing or doing projections or other things. Stay tuned for that.

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1 minute ago, Devin Knotts said:

We are releasing an awesome article that will be 3x a week called the Butterfly Effect it will be released tomorrow, which is exactly what you are talking about due to minutes usage or trends.

DVP is coming, the reason we don't have it in there right now is that it is last year's data and with all the movement in free agency it isn't that reliable this early in the season. 

Will add time stamps to the articles going forward that is an easy fix. 

Will reach out once things are stabilized, i want to do some cool things where we have guest writers write an article or two to give people a chance to crack into the industry who are interested in it. I was fortunate to get started in this type of a program and want to help others who are interested in writing or doing projections or other things. Stay tuned for that.

Thank you for being so communicative and transparent with your process through all of this, Devin. It is greatly appreciated.

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thanks. Didn't leave much on the table but this is my lineup for $1 miniswat

pg-wall rozier

sg- mccollum bradley

sf-leonard  bazemore

pf-Aldridge nicholson

c-cousins

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10 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

We are releasing an awesome article that will be 3x a week called the Butterfly Effect it will be released tomorrow, which is exactly what you are talking about due to minutes usage or trends.

DVP is coming, the reason we don't have it in there right now is that it is last year's data and with all the movement in free agency it isn't that reliable this early in the season. 

Will add time stamps to the articles going forward that is an easy fix. 

Will reach out once things are stabilized, i want to do some cool things where we have guest writers write an article or two to give people a chance to crack into the industry who are interested in it. I was fortunate to get started in this type of a program and want to help others who are interested in writing or doing projections or other things. Stay tuned for that.

Thanks man.

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3 hours ago, NixonMask said:

Nice call on Nicholson guys.  I wasn't even considering him until looking at the ICC.  How is he only 1% though?  I Blake 90% owned?

Not sure how he was only 1% owned. Him and Rozier were both criminally underowned

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9 hours ago, SwampDawg said:

Are you going to add Draftkings at some point ?

We are hoping to have this tomorrow, we are doing some final testing tonight with tomorrow's projections, if the testing goes well DraftKings will be available tomorrow. If not, I will provide an update on the issue and when we expect it to be completed.

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$10 in, $13.20 out.  Thanks Devin.

Someone took 1st through 14th with the same lineup in a $50k shot.

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Hi Devin! Just wanted to let you know that on the IVC, the games are still listed from yesterday though the date shows today (10/28).

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1 hour ago, blake said:

Hi Devin! Just wanted to let you know that on the IVC, the games are still listed from yesterday though the date shows today (10/28).

Should be fixed now. Sorry about that.

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27 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

Should be fixed now. Sorry about that.

Thank you, Devin! And nice job on today's Deep Dive. A really good read.

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2 minutes ago, Megla said:

Thoughts on this GPP

Westy/Fraz/Harden/Book/AGordon/Hollis-Jeff/Ibaka/Kanter/Adams

Not sure if it matters, but that is close to the cash game lineup I'm using:
Curry, Frazier, Harden, Eric Gordon, Hollis-Jefferson, Durant, Kanter, Ibaka, Adams

I like going Westbrook instead of Curry though and using Aaron Gordon.
 

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Also have

Bledsoe/Fraz/Harden/Book/LaBron/Holl-Jeff/Ibaka/Kanter/Adams

Lin/Curry/Harden/Book/HBarnes/Holl-Jeff/Kanter/Marv Will/Drumond

Curry/West/Harden/Book/Ingrahm/Holl-Jeff/Kanter/Powell/Adams

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45 minutes ago, nicholasm3 said:

Fading AD in cash? You guys must have balls of steel.

Or burned by him too many times to count. 

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4 minutes ago, freeannyong said:

Or burned by him too many times to count. 

And I've learned not to chase previous days' production.

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Another problem with AD is there is alot of reasonable value at PF.  Theres alot less at SG.  I think Harden is a little overpriced, but Im happy to overpay at SG a little for the sure thing

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Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

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9 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

Who are your favorite plays in that game?

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1 hour ago, Devin Knotts said:

Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

I'm trying my best this year not to think about the times I've been burned by a player, but it is difficult, especially with a player like Anthony Davis. But I'm a big believer in Hollis-Jefferson this year. I think the breakout is coming. And at that price, if he can get 20 points, I'd be happy since I can afford studs at other positions. I'm hopeful for more though.

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That would seem to suggest smart people outthink themselves too.  It sounds stupid, but every time I submit a lineup and ask myself out loud "will I regret rostering this player."  If I can't answer no to each person out loud its back to the drawing board.

Edit:  Thats obviously just for cash.  I eagerly submit some dumb **** in GPPs

Edited by NixonMask

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

That would seem to suggest smart people outthink themselves too.  It sounds stupid, but every time I submit a lineup and ask myself out loud "will I regret rostering this player."  If I can't answer no to each person out loud its back to the drawing board.

Edit:  Thats obviously just for cash.  I eagerly submit some dumb **** in GPPs

1

I think it also could be that the people that play higher dollar stakes generally look at minutes and production/minute. Those playing lower dollar games play more with their gut and look at Hollis-Jefferson and say he sucks. Turns out in this case the eyeball test won over analytics. 

 

53 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

Good call on Lin.  His 7.5x is probably going to save me from rostering Kanter in cash.

Lin Frazier and Barnes carried me tonight, pretty good night.

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9 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

I think it also could be that the people that play higher dollar stakes generally look at minutes and production/minute. Those playing lower dollar games play more with their gut and look at Hollis-Jefferson and say he sucks. Turns out in this case the eyeball test won over analytics.

That is another way to look at it. :D

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I'm off to a pretty good start, winning 3 of the first 4 nights. Unfortunately I'm playing very low stakes while getting a feel for the new looks. Yesterday I made one team at FD before leaving for the local hs homecoming football game. It finished 118 out of 69k in the free roll. It won two $5 five teamers and no one is withing 60 points of it. It scored 361.7. Can someone who played in the big gpps let me know where that might have finished and what was the top score? 392 took the free roll. At DK I'm at 400 in and 800 back already and going easy. It's been about studs and scrubs for me. I'll ride AD @ SA and play Leonard too. 

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

So at near min price Rozier is pretty much must play on a back to back where Isiah played 35 minutes right?

Not on my radar. Patty Mills is starting, Parker Ginobli sitting. Makes Simmons interesting again.

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2 minutes ago, Chaos Commish said:

Not on my radar. Patty Mills is starting, Parker Ginobli sitting. Makes Simmons interesting again.

Yes, Rozier isn't on my radar either. I'm torn between Tim Frazier or Ty Lawson at my 2nd PG position. Few Spurs interest me with the spread. Though I could see where Simmons could play major minutes.

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6 minutes ago, blake said:

Yes, Rozier isn't on my radar either. I'm torn between Tim Frazier or Ty Lawson at my 2nd PG position. Few Spurs interest me with the spread. Though I could see where Simmons could play major minutes.

Well I'm not much help because I'm using both.

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1 minute ago, NixonMask said:

Im on Frazier too, but Im having a hard time seeing him get less than 25 minutes tonight.

Maybe I'm not understanding. This is a good thing, right? You're saying that you expect him to get 25 or more minutes?

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Yes.  Im expecting 25-30 minutes at min price.  He isnt a huge scorer, but does fill collect other stats.  My problem with lawson is he leaves me about $200 short from a player I would want to pay up for.  The extra savings at Rozier allows me to easily get Greek , Carmelo, or even Brow if I feel like punishing myself tonight

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4 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

Yes.  Im expecting 25-30 minutes at min price.  He isnt a huge scorer, but does fill collect other stats.  My problem with lawson is he leaves me about $200 short from a player I would want to pay up for.  The extra savings at Rozier allows me to easily get Greek , Carmelo, or even Brow if I feel like punishing myself tonight

Ah, ok! I just wanted to make sure I understood. Thank you for your patience. I agreea bout Frazier and I have a different problem with Lawson. Namely, he stunk last year. I can't just pretend that didn't happen even though he does have talent. Frazier is in my lineup unless I have a crazy lightning bolt of a thought and put in Lawson, but I don't think that's going to happen.

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