David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

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Another problem with AD is there is alot of reasonable value at PF.  Theres alot less at SG.  I think Harden is a little overpriced, but Im happy to overpay at SG a little for the sure thing

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Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

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9 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

Who are your favorite plays in that game?

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Lin is probably my favorite in that game. Will have some RHJ, he just scares me with the recency bias

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1 hour ago, Devin Knotts said:

Hollis Jefferson scares me a little bit as everyone was burned by him last time out, but that over under just keeps increasing. It is now up to 220, for a player to see that many minutes in that high of a scoring game he's a good punt play.

I'm trying my best this year not to think about the times I've been burned by a player, but it is difficult, especially with a player like Anthony Davis. But I'm a big believer in Hollis-Jefferson this year. I think the breakout is coming. And at that price, if he can get 20 points, I'd be happy since I can afford studs at other positions. I'm hopeful for more though.

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Im done with Hollis Jefferson. What's interesting is his ownership 6% in the $3 FanDuel GPP and 20% in the $25 FanDuel GPP.

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That would seem to suggest smart people outthink themselves too.  It sounds stupid, but every time I submit a lineup and ask myself out loud "will I regret rostering this player."  If I can't answer no to each person out loud its back to the drawing board.

Edit:  Thats obviously just for cash.  I eagerly submit some dumb **** in GPPs

Edited by NixonMask

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Good call on Lin.  His 7.5x is probably going to save me from rostering Kanter in cash.

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

That would seem to suggest smart people outthink themselves too.  It sounds stupid, but every time I submit a lineup and ask myself out loud "will I regret rostering this player."  If I can't answer no to each person out loud its back to the drawing board.

Edit:  Thats obviously just for cash.  I eagerly submit some dumb **** in GPPs

1

I think it also could be that the people that play higher dollar stakes generally look at minutes and production/minute. Those playing lower dollar games play more with their gut and look at Hollis-Jefferson and say he sucks. Turns out in this case the eyeball test won over analytics. 

 

53 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

Good call on Lin.  His 7.5x is probably going to save me from rostering Kanter in cash.

Lin Frazier and Barnes carried me tonight, pretty good night.

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9 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

I think it also could be that the people that play higher dollar stakes generally look at minutes and production/minute. Those playing lower dollar games play more with their gut and look at Hollis-Jefferson and say he sucks. Turns out in this case the eyeball test won over analytics.

That is another way to look at it. :D

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I'm off to a pretty good start, winning 3 of the first 4 nights. Unfortunately I'm playing very low stakes while getting a feel for the new looks. Yesterday I made one team at FD before leaving for the local hs homecoming football game. It finished 118 out of 69k in the free roll. It won two $5 five teamers and no one is withing 60 points of it. It scored 361.7. Can someone who played in the big gpps let me know where that might have finished and what was the top score? 392 took the free roll. At DK I'm at 400 in and 800 back already and going easy. It's been about studs and scrubs for me. I'll ride AD @ SA and play Leonard too. 

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So at near min price Rozier is pretty much must play on a back to back where Isiah played 35 minutes right?

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

So at near min price Rozier is pretty much must play on a back to back where Isiah played 35 minutes right?

Not on my radar. Patty Mills is starting, Parker Ginobli sitting. Makes Simmons interesting again.

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2 minutes ago, Chaos Commish said:

Not on my radar. Patty Mills is starting, Parker Ginobli sitting. Makes Simmons interesting again.

Yes, Rozier isn't on my radar either. I'm torn between Tim Frazier or Ty Lawson at my 2nd PG position. Few Spurs interest me with the spread. Though I could see where Simmons could play major minutes.

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6 minutes ago, blake said:

Yes, Rozier isn't on my radar either. I'm torn between Tim Frazier or Ty Lawson at my 2nd PG position. Few Spurs interest me with the spread. Though I could see where Simmons could play major minutes.

Well I'm not much help because I'm using both.

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Im on Frazier too, but Im having a hard time seeing him get less than 25 minutes tonight.

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1 minute ago, NixonMask said:

Im on Frazier too, but Im having a hard time seeing him get less than 25 minutes tonight.

Maybe I'm not understanding. This is a good thing, right? You're saying that you expect him to get 25 or more minutes?

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Yes.  Im expecting 25-30 minutes at min price.  He isnt a huge scorer, but does fill collect other stats.  My problem with lawson is he leaves me about $200 short from a player I would want to pay up for.  The extra savings at Rozier allows me to easily get Greek , Carmelo, or even Brow if I feel like punishing myself tonight

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4 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

Yes.  Im expecting 25-30 minutes at min price.  He isnt a huge scorer, but does fill collect other stats.  My problem with lawson is he leaves me about $200 short from a player I would want to pay up for.  The extra savings at Rozier allows me to easily get Greek , Carmelo, or even Brow if I feel like punishing myself tonight

Ah, ok! I just wanted to make sure I understood. Thank you for your patience. I agreea bout Frazier and I have a different problem with Lawson. Namely, he stunk last year. I can't just pretend that didn't happen even though he does have talent. Frazier is in my lineup unless I have a crazy lightning bolt of a thought and put in Lawson, but I don't think that's going to happen.

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Yeah, Lawson definitely isnt anything more than average.  Maybe running back Frazier and Lin is the way to go on FD.

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1 minute ago, NixonMask said:

I think I figured it out.  Just play Lillard on FD

That's exactly what I'm doing - Frazier and LIllard at PG.

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Avery Bradley 14% in the FanDuel slam. Going to reach 5x value in the first half great start for our #2 SG

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1 minute ago, Devin Knotts said:

Avery Bradley 14% in the FanDuel slam. Going to reach 5x value in the first half

This is exactly what I've been mostly devoid of so far this very very young NBA season. Supporting players (not studs, not scrubs) who simply fail to return value, much less 4x or 5x value. I'm sure, like football, once another week or two passes, much more will be known about teams' pace, player trends and backups. Maybe this is the year Avery Bradley breaks out and makes his #1 fan, Danny Ainge, awfully proud.

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I think what I've been looking for is players who are seeing an uptick in rebound and assist stats, Bradley has always been able to score but he is now able to get those rebounds and assists thus paying off his salary big time.

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Man, if only someone had told me to play Patty Mills over Frazier I would be having a monster day.  Great call Devin on Bradley.  Your great calls the last two days have saved me from my own poor decisions!

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

Great call Devin on Bradley.  Your great calls the last two days have saved me from my own poor decisions!

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

Edited by blake

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20 minutes ago, blake said:

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

 

Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.

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Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

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1 hour ago, Devin Knotts said:

Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.

Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups?  That should be required reading for a tournament player right?

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45 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups?  That should be required reading for a tournament player right?

The Deep Dive doesn't hurt for either cash or GPPs. When projections are made they are made with with the expected outcome, but some players are more volatile than others. For example one player floor maybe 15 while his ceiling would be 40. His projection may come out to 28. But if there is a player where his floor is 25 and his ceiling is 35 he would be a better cash game play.

The best comparison that I have is for NFL DeSean Jackson and someone like Michael Crabtree may be projected for the same amount of points, but in reality their floor/ceiling is very different DeSean Jackson would be hard to trust in cash. In the deep dive, we call out the top plays as the cash game plays where if a player is only a secondary play he should just be a GPP play.

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FYI - The Breaking News link/page requires login. 

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7 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

The cash line in 50/50's compared to GPP's in NBA always seems to be only within a few pts of each other. I just stick to GPP's for NBA unlike NFL. 

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Pre-IVC for the day, my thoughts:

The big-money plays look obvious. Fit Westbrook if you can, of course. No holes in Harden or Durant; in fact all Warriors get a modest boost against PHX. Draymond is also squarely in play - his defensive numbers should be off the charts and build a great floor for his ultra-reasonable salary.

Greg Monroe should get plenty of run; Kidd doesn't lean heavily on Henson in b2b games.

Top cheap plays look like Barea and maybe Ginobili, who rested last night.

Early FD lineup (cash): Westbrook, Barea, Ginobili, LWilliams, Durantula, TJWarren, Draymomd, Markieff, Adams

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10 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

 

3 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

I have not had the best of luck this season. I've just broken even and all I'm playing is low stakes 50/50 games and head to heads.

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5 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

Really early. NBA data is generally calculated in terms of point per minute. Unlike NFL and MLB, usage takes some time to figure out. Point is, projections are going to be really unreliable until these guys can get enough data to accurately predict minutes for guys. 

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My early cash lineup. I love Westy, but he's really expensive. Fading him lets me do some other things. 

Delly/Beldsoe

Greek/Gordon

Barnes/KD

Tobias/ZBo

Monroe

Lots of Bucks I know, but pricing is about $1000 too low on a Monroe and Delly IMO. 

Edited by Tennessee_ATO

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Well I gave back 75% of my season to date profits yesterday, and I was all over Bradley. 

15 hours ago, blake said:

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

My shtick here the past couple years was to post spreads and totals and make a brief commentary on the game. Today seems pretty simple for cash games if you build around the games at Pho, at OKC and at Hou. For gpps Memphis needs better analysis based on this blurb -- Wade Baldwin, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, and Jarell Martin all questionable for tonight...

 

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