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David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

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1 minute ago, NixonMask said:

I think I figured it out.  Just play Lillard on FD

That's exactly what I'm doing - Frazier and LIllard at PG.

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1 minute ago, Devin Knotts said:

Avery Bradley 14% in the FanDuel slam. Going to reach 5x value in the first half

This is exactly what I've been mostly devoid of so far this very very young NBA season. Supporting players (not studs, not scrubs) who simply fail to return value, much less 4x or 5x value. I'm sure, like football, once another week or two passes, much more will be known about teams' pace, player trends and backups. Maybe this is the year Avery Bradley breaks out and makes his #1 fan, Danny Ainge, awfully proud.

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I think what I've been looking for is players who are seeing an uptick in rebound and assist stats, Bradley has always been able to score but he is now able to get those rebounds and assists thus paying off his salary big time.

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Man, if only someone had told me to play Patty Mills over Frazier I would be having a monster day.  Great call Devin on Bradley.  Your great calls the last two days have saved me from my own poor decisions!

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1 hour ago, NixonMask said:

Great call Devin on Bradley.  Your great calls the last two days have saved me from my own poor decisions!

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

Edited by blake

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20 minutes ago, blake said:

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

 

Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.

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Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

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1 hour ago, Devin Knotts said:

Thanks, the Deep Dive puts the projections in context a little bit more than just a projection number. I recommend everyone take a look at the Deep Dive we spend over 5-6 hours per day writing it, so a lot of effort goes into making that thing.

Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups?  That should be required reading for a tournament player right?

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45 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Correct me if I'm wring, but we shouldn't need the deep dive for cash lineups?  That should be required reading for a tournament player right?

The Deep Dive doesn't hurt for either cash or GPPs. When projections are made they are made with with the expected outcome, but some players are more volatile than others. For example one player floor maybe 15 while his ceiling would be 40. His projection may come out to 28. But if there is a player where his floor is 25 and his ceiling is 35 he would be a better cash game play.

The best comparison that I have is for NFL DeSean Jackson and someone like Michael Crabtree may be projected for the same amount of points, but in reality their floor/ceiling is very different DeSean Jackson would be hard to trust in cash. In the deep dive, we call out the top plays as the cash game plays where if a player is only a secondary play he should just be a GPP play.

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7 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

The cash line in 50/50's compared to GPP's in NBA always seems to be only within a few pts of each other. I just stick to GPP's for NBA unlike NFL. 

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Pre-IVC for the day, my thoughts:

The big-money plays look obvious. Fit Westbrook if you can, of course. No holes in Harden or Durant; in fact all Warriors get a modest boost against PHX. Draymond is also squarely in play - his defensive numbers should be off the charts and build a great floor for his ultra-reasonable salary.

Greg Monroe should get plenty of run; Kidd doesn't lean heavily on Henson in b2b games.

Top cheap plays look like Barea and maybe Ginobili, who rested last night.

Early FD lineup (cash): Westbrook, Barea, Ginobili, LWilliams, Durantula, TJWarren, Draymomd, Markieff, Adams

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10 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to say this venture isn't working out so well for me.  $13 in, $9 out.  I'm playing straight off the IVCs.  Will keep this up for a couple of weeks.  That should be enough time to tell if this system will work for me.

 

3 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

I have not had the best of luck this season. I've just broken even and all I'm playing is low stakes 50/50 games and head to heads.

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5 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Same here I'm 0-8 in 50/50s. I don't think I can do DFS NBA without being an NBA fan/follower which I am not.

Really early. NBA data is generally calculated in terms of point per minute. Unlike NFL and MLB, usage takes some time to figure out. Point is, projections are going to be really unreliable until these guys can get enough data to accurately predict minutes for guys. 

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My early cash lineup. I love Westy, but he's really expensive. Fading him lets me do some other things. 

Delly/Beldsoe

Greek/Gordon

Barnes/KD

Tobias/ZBo

Monroe

Lots of Bucks I know, but pricing is about $1000 too low on a Monroe and Delly IMO. 

Edited by Tennessee_ATO

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Well I gave back 75% of my season to date profits yesterday, and I was all over Bradley. 

15 hours ago, blake said:

So true, I should start reading the Deep Dive more. That helped me check my own decisions today. And it reminded me what a big deal pace is as well as the Vegas spread for the games. And agreed with the call on Bradley. Great call, Devin. Porzingis, Lillard and Jokic were also excellent calls. 

EDIT TO ADD: Also, real nice call on Nurkic too. At that great $4900 salary, he is set to return at least 5x value.

My shtick here the past couple years was to post spreads and totals and make a brief commentary on the game. Today seems pretty simple for cash games if you build around the games at Pho, at OKC and at Hou. For gpps Memphis needs better analysis based on this blurb -- Wade Baldwin, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, and Jarell Martin all questionable for tonight...

 

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I wanted to drop in here simply to give another dose of kudos to Devin and his team for the Deep Dive recommendations. I think I'm sold on purchasing the product. 

Tips like James Ennis, suggesting not to be frightened by Westbrook's hefty price tag, Steven Adams and Andrew Nicholson. TJ Warren was another great tip. Thank you! And if only Wes Matthews wasn't playing defense on Harden, his output would have been better too. I have a small bankroll, but I suggest to anyone to read that Deep Dive.

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20 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Really early. NBA data is generally calculated in terms of point per minute. Unlike NFL and MLB, usage takes some time to figure out. Point is, projections are going to be really unreliable until these guys can get enough data to accurately predict minutes for guys. 

Then it would probably make sense to hold off offering the free trail until there's enough data that it would be useful.  That said, I've only played 3 days using the IVC so that's not a big enough sample size to make any determinations. 

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Really nice work the last few days on the promptness of releasing the IVC. Today, I am a little surprised that Mike Muscala (Atlanta) is not on it that I can see? If he is there, and I'm just missing him, please forgive my oversight.

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14 minutes ago, blake said:

Really nice work the last few days on the promptness of releasing the IVC. Today, I am a little surprised that Mike Muscala (Atlanta) is not on it that I can see? If he is there, and I'm just missing him, please forgive my oversight.

He's not there, he is at 4200 in the PF position at FD

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On 10/30/2016 at 6:53 AM, w3junky said:

FYI - The Breaking News link/page requires login. 

Let me look into this, he should be added in the next update which will be in about 30 minutes. He may not be fed over from our stat feed, but I will get him added in manually.

Also, the breaking news page no longer requires a login. This was a technical issue that we didn't catch as we were logged in while testing it. This page typically starts getting updated around 4PM EST with one of our staff members manning the news wire. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/basketball/apps/bbfastbreak.php

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One thing I noticed is that when I go to the IVC, I get sent to the regular football web template for articles, news, etc which makes it difficult to navigate back to basketball. Deep dive, projections, news all stay within the basketball template.

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3 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

Let me look into this, he should be added in the next update which will be in about 30 minutes. He may not be fed over from our stat feed, but I will get him added in manually.

Thank you for the fix, Devin! Now, if only I felt more confident in my lineup for tonight!

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4 hours ago, BroadwayG said:

One thing I noticed is that when I go to the IVC, I get sent to the regular football web template for articles, news, etc which makes it difficult to navigate back to basketball. Deep dive, projections, news all stay within the basketball template.

 

Thanks, we are aware of this and are working on a solution for it. We hope to have it fixed this week.

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1 hour ago, blake said:

Thank you for the fix, Devin! Now, if only I felt more confident in my lineup for tonight!

Agreed 4 game slates are tough. You almost have to decide if you go Cousins or not, and I'm not 100% sold on Cousins he still grades out as the top center, but is not an absolute shoe in

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Just now, BassNBrew said:

Another down night last night.  3 down, 1 up ytd.

You aren't alone, believe me. Three 50/50's entered, all out of the money. I think I need to start subscribing to the "studs and scrubs" theory. I had too many pretty good players, and when a couple didn't hit (Lin and Jokic were two biggies), I had no studs to really help like Paul and I'd consider Lowry a stud at this point.

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Lin wasn't a killer, but Jokic certainly was.  It seems like whenever I decide to roster one of those oafy Denver eastern Europeans he immediately gets into foul trouble

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Just now, NixonMask said:

Lin wasn't a killer, but Jokic certainly was.  It seems like whenever I decide to roster one of those oafy Denver eastern Europeans he immediately gets into foul trouble

Lin was definitely a killer for me, combined with Jokic, with the blowout Bulls-Nets game. 

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6 minutes ago, blake said:

You aren't alone, believe me. Three 50/50's entered, all out of the money. I think I need to start subscribing to the "studs and scrubs" theory. I had too many pretty good players, and when a couple didn't hit (Lin and Jokic were two biggies), I had no studs to really help like Paul and I'd consider Lowry a stud at this point.

Studs and scrubs isn't working for me.  The scrubs the IVC is highlighting aren't meeting their projections.

That said last night it was pretty much across the board.

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Any news on Harden for tonight?  Last I read he was a GTD

Also if you are playing tonight don't forget about the time change for the Clev game, it's at 6pm EST now

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Jokic didnt play most of the 2nd half, Nurkic was destroying things too much to bring him back in the game. Jokic's only play in the 4th quarter was with 0.2 seconds left to inbound the ball. 

Lin and all bulls/nets players-it is hard to predict a blowout quite like that.

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Got to have this info in your breaking news if you're going to charge for this service.
 
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will both dress vs. the Wolves on Tuesday, but they are not expected to play.
They are not injured, but the Grizzlies want to give them a maintenance day on the first night of a back-to-back set. Expect Conley to return on Wednesday vs. the Pelicans. Wade Baldwin will draw the start in his absence. Nov 1 - 7:37 PM
 
 

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5 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:
Got to have this info in your breaking news if you're going to charge for this service.
 
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will both dress vs. the Wolves on Tuesday, but they are not expected to play.
They are not injured, but the Grizzlies want to give them a maintenance day on the first night of a back-to-back set. Expect Conley to return on Wednesday vs. the Pelicans. Wade Baldwin will draw the start in his absence. Nov 1 - 7:37 PM
 
 

I agree that the speed of delivery needs to be improved moving up to tip off going forward, but the Conley Gasol news didnt break until after lock. 

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Lost again tonight.  That's 4 out of 5 nights in the hole.  None of the four Harden lineups cashed and he was only 3.1% owned.  Strictly usied the IVCs to maximize points.  You guys need to take a hard look at your projections because they aren't on par with the competition, much less beating the rake.  

Now I realized 4 of 5 is a small sample size so I'll trust that you really did bring in the best basketball minds available as advertised and give it a fair shot.

 

eta to add: I can't speak for football this year, but the IVCs won money in pro football last year and killed it in college football.

Edited by BassNBrew

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Sorry guys- I was fortunate enough to go to the World Series today and just finally got a chance to look at this. Apologize for the long post there is a ton of good information in here I promise.

 

The Gasol/Conley news was devastating to me personally as I had a lot of Gasol in my lineups. I did not have a lot of Conley, as we had Dragic projected higher at the same price who had a very good game. We do have a breaking news page on the site with someone manning the feed up until lock, but as Nixon mentioned, the news unfortunately broke after lock. We had Gasol projected at 33 points in this one, which is about his season average.

 

Couple of things about the IVC's and projections
1) NBA unlike any other sport, is so critical who you select in your initial few players. The vast majority of the people who used the IVC's selected some combination of Kris Dunn, Tim Frazier, Giannis Antetekuonmpo or Anthony Davis. The way that I start out with the IVC, is I put a lot of thought into who I am going to want to select as a cash game play for the day, typically this is a low priced player who will see a lot of minutes, or it is a high priced guy who is a stud. Then I let the IVC fill in the rest for me, but really try to be methodical when selecting those first three players on FD and first two on DraftKings.

2) We are tracking our player projections against two of our main competitors and two of the largest basketball sites out there. While we aren't ready to share the initial results yet as it is not fair to claim statistical significance on an 8 slate sample size, I can tell you that so far this season across the board our projections have been better than one of the sites and equal to the other site. If there are any sites you would like us to benchmark against in this analysis, please let us know and we will be happy to add them to the list as we are always looking to track against competition. Ultimately for the end consumer, this means nothing if you aren't winning. It seems so far we have had some people who have had success and that's great, others however and that means we can do better.

3) At the end of the day, I use the IVC every single day to play contests, all of my picks are in my lineup, and you will never see me win without that. If I could I would love to submit my cash game lineup to you guys everyday, and we are still working on a way to possibly do this, but the reality is that from a time standpoint, the cash game lineup may go through 4-5 iterations in the last hour minutes of lock as I'm tracking the news our team updates on our website. The worry is that if I post an optimal cash game lineup at 5:30 EST, that is likely going to be outdated by 6:15 EST. 

4) Statistical projection models are based on historical information to try to determine future results. This early in the season roles are still being defined, players are still adjusting to their new teams/new coaches/new roles. As the season progresses, the model has more data and is using less 2015 data. NBA is a grind compared to NFL or CFB. 

Now on to today's projections

I went in and looked today and here is our most common optimized lineup for DraftKings. It is still up there for anyone to take a look. If you took Curry, you likely had a bad night, and that's unfortunate as the team won by 28 which is impossible to predict that on the road that they would have the lead as much as they did. Neither of these lineups would cash in a GPP tonight, as they had one or two players who underperformed but both would cash in cash games. 

Here was the most common lineup for FanDuel from the optimizer, based on selecting Kris Dunn, Tim Frazier and Anthony Davis hitting the button.

PG Kris Dunn 4000
PG Tim Frazier 5500
SG James Harden 11200
SG Klay Thompson 5800
SF Carmelo Anthony 7500
SF Jonathon Simmons 3800
PF Anthony Davis 11000
PF Kristaps Porzingis 6600
C Clint Capela 4600

Kris Dunn- 30.8
Tim Frazier- 44.1 
James Harden-72.9
Klay Thompson- 26
Carmelo Anthony-34.2
Jonathon Simmons- 8.9
Anthony Davis-67
Kristaps Porzingis-28.7
Clint Capela- 16.3
Total- 328.9

 

 

PG Giannis Antetokounmpo 8900
SG Dion Waiters 4200
SF Carmelo Anthony 7500
PF Anthony Davis 10800
C Nikola Vucevic 6100
G Kris Dunn 4100
F Jon Leuer 3700
Util Sergio Rodriguez 4700

The most common iteration for DraftKings was Giannis and Anthony Davis. If you hit the button you would have gotten Gasol in this lineup unfortunately. By manually excluding Gasol, here is what the projections come up with. This lineup put up 318.85 points. The cash line was right around 290 in single entry double up, had Gasol played and reached his projected value this lineup would have come in right around 300.

Giannis- 54.5
Dion Waiters- 36
Carmelo Anthony-36
Anthony Davis- 51.6
Nikola Vucevic- 52.5
Kris Dunn- 33.5
Jon Leuer- 19.5
Sergio Rodriguez- 35.25

Total- 318.85
 

 

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38 minutes ago, Sitch said:

Where can I find the optimizer button?  Don't see it anywhere...

You hit on Knotts name to optimize  

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Based on taking the 3 top H-Value guys

PGStephen Curry8700 35

PGKris Dunn4000 31

SGJames Harden11200 73

SGKlay Thompson5800 24

SFAndrew Wiggins6400 24

SFJonathon Simmons3800 9

PFRyan Anderson5300 18

PFJaMychal Green4700 12

CDeMarcus Cousins9900 42 

Total 268 projected 305

 

Based on taking the three top value guys.

PGKris Dunn4000 31

PGStephen Curry8700 35

SGGiannis Antetokounmpo9600 52

SGJames Harden11200 73

SFJonathon Simmons3800 9

SFCarmelo Anthony7500 34

PFJaMychal Green4700 12

PFGorgui Dieng5900 35

Clint Capela4600 15

 Total:60000

 

Total 296 Projected 310

 

Had a cash game lineup that didn't hit at 316 last night.  The only full slate tourney I played took 313 to cash.

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7 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

Couple of things about the IVC's and projections
1) NBA unlike any other sport, is so critical who you select in your initial few players. The vast majority of the people who used the IVC's selected some combination of Kris Dunn, Tim Frazier, Giannis Antetekuonmpo or Anthony Davis. The way that I start out with the IVC, is I put a lot of thought into who I am going to want to select as a cash game play for the day, typically this is a low priced player who will see a lot of minutes, or it is a high priced guy who is a stud. Then I let the IVC fill in the rest for me, but really try to be methodical when selecting those first three players on FD and first two on DraftKings.

2) We are tracking our player projections against two of our main competitors and two of the largest basketball sites out there. While we aren't ready to share the initial results yet as it is not fair to claim statistical significance on an 8 slate sample size, I can tell you that so far this season across the board our projections have been better than one of the sites and equal to the other site. If there are any sites you would like us to benchmark against in this analysis, please let us know and we will be happy to add them to the list as we are always looking to track against competition. Ultimately for the end consumer, this means nothing if you aren't winning. It seems so far we have had some people who have had success and that's great, others however and that means we can do better.

3) At the end of the day, I use the IVC every single day to play contests, all of my picks are in my lineup, and you will never see me win without that. If I could I would love to submit my cash game lineup to you guys everyday, and we are still working on a way to possibly do this, but the reality is that from a time standpoint, the cash game lineup may go through 4-5 iterations in the last hour minutes of lock as I'm tracking the news our team updates on our website. The worry is that if I post an optimal cash game lineup at 5:30 EST, that is likely going to be outdated by 6:15 EST. 

4) Statistical projection models are based on historical information to try to determine future results. This early in the season roles are still being defined, players are still adjusting to their new teams/new coaches/new roles. As the season progresses, the model has more data and is using less 2015 data. NBA is a grind compared to NFL or CFB. 

 

As far as tracking your projections, analyzing the full universe of players doesn't matter.  You could be superior in projecting 90% of the players, but if your missing on the value plays and studs or the competition is better at finding the value play and projecting studs, then your costumer base is going to lose.

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The Deep Dive article has been going into the value plays every day. Devin hasn't missed on that many that I've read; I just keep choosing the wrong ones. After losing myself the last couple of days, I've got to take some responsibility somewhere along the line is how I see it. I make my own lineup after doing my own research augmented by Devin and his crew and I don't expect to be spoon fed the top choices every day for guaranteed winners. 

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In the Fanduel IVC today, unfortunately, some of the pricing is off. Certainly not a complete list - just ones that I noticed.

Westbrook is off $800. He is $12000, not $11,200.
Tim Frazier is $5500, not $5200 which is on the IVC.
James Harden is $11200, not $11000 which is on the IVC.
Nicolas Batum is $6400 instead of $6300.
Harrison Barnes is $5200 on Fanduel, not $4900 which is on the IVC.
JaMychal Green and Steven Adams are both off $400.

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