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David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

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One thing to note and a huge tip for everyone. Avoid the large multi-entry 50/50 double ups. We have tracked the multi-entry compared to the single entry 50/50's over the last two years and the multi-entry cash line are typically 10-15 points higher than the single entry as you have a lot of people who will just max enter and run the same lineup in those contests. 

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probably another noob question but does the size of the game slate have any bearing on whether i should play 50/50 or gpp? When I play NBA DFS I want at least 6 games going on and play a $1 50/50 and a $1gpp with the same lineup.

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33 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

probably another noob question but does the size of the game slate have any bearing on whether i should play 50/50 or gpp? When I play NBA DFS I want at least 6 games going on and play a $1 50/50 and a $1gpp with the same lineup.

I think a noob, or basically any non-insider, non-pro is going to be -EV on GPPs but with good advice and lineup building you can pull >56% on 50/50s so my unpopular advice is to stick with the 50/50 or Double-ups and let the bankroll grow gradually.

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44 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

probably another noob question but does the size of the game slate have any bearing on whether i should play 50/50 or gpp? When I play NBA DFS I want at least 6 games going on and play a $1 50/50 and a $1gpp with the same lineup.

Mike is way smarter than me, so listen to him ahead of me. That said, some other smart guys are adamant that you should put more of your action into GPPs and reduce your cash exposure on small slates. I'm sure their data is solid, but I am pretty bad at building GPP lineups. 

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3 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Mike is way smarter than me, so listen to him ahead of me. That said, some other smart guys are adamant that you should put more of your action into GPPs and reduce your cash exposure on small slates. I'm sure their data is solid, but I am pretty bad at building GPP lineups. 

Not true on smarts.

Maybe I'm just bad at it too! LOL! Which makes sense because I'm pretty conservative.  

And I hate losing more than I enjoy winning! :) 

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Thanks for the advice, I'll stick with 50/50s. Have a line up started with Westbrook, Frazier, harden and Smith, just waiting for the deep dive to finish filling it out.

 

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14 minutes ago, MikeMan said:

Not true on smarts.

Maybe I'm just bad at it too! LOL! Which makes sense because I'm pretty conservative.  

And I hate losing more than I enjoy winning! :) 

You and me both. 

Here's my initial stab at a cash lineup with thoughts. First time all season I've actually been able to reflect a bit on what I'm doing. Still some questions about a couple of these guys and I have $600 in salary to tweak based on injury news. 

Frazier/Westy -- Frazier is a no-brainer at his price point. Westy is just a beast. He may not hit 60, but it sure feels like it's really unlikely that he "just" scores 48. 

Bradley/Gordon -- sounds like Bradley is a go tonight. He's clearly the primary scorer for Boston right now, but last year tells us that can change at any time. Gordon's salary fit. Not sure how much I love him tonight. 

 Barnes/Roberson -- Barnes can be maddening, but he's pushing 40 minutes a night so it seems like he has a reasonable floor. Roberson might be a little risky for my taste, but he's cheap and should top 30 minutes tonight in a high scoring affair. 

Tobias/Brow -- Tobias is a UT guy, so he's got that going for him. He's also playing good minutes and clearly an active part of the offense. Mid-20's seems like a reasonable floor. Brow is a beast. He should be priced @ $12,000, not $10,700

Zeller (T) -- Big Al out. Cheap. He has solid upside. And he allows me to roster Westbrook and Davis. Plus I'm a Boston fan. 

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I cant fade Harden. 
Obviously its a sample size of 1, but Frazier's and Brow's 1 bad game so far this year were on the road.  It was also their only 2nd game of a B2B so far this year. Obviously it being against the Spurs is relevant.  But Memphis isnt terrible either.  Especially Conley.  I have some concerns, espcially coming off another back to back.

Edited by NixonMask
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Tonight is interesting, because on FanDuel the decision is whether to go with Harden, Brow and Westbrook and punt everywhere else or a more balanced approach. All of the punt options have inherent risk. 

If I would rank them I would rank them accordingly. Westbrook is just too expensive on DraftKings. 

FanDuel- Davis, Westbrook, Harden

DraftKings- Davis, Harden, Westbrook

One thing to note. Ersan Ilyasova will not get points on DK tonight, but will on FanDuel. 

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3 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

RIP me.  Frazier and Brow, lets do this!  What could go wrong?

The only way I feel sane about having Davis in my lineup is also having Harden and Westbrook.

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Ive got 100% Harden.  I have Conley locked in at one of the PGs and have either Plumlee , Adams, or Chandler for salary reasons in all my lineups.  Im just not sure what to do at the other PG.  I like Schroeder, Thomas, and Paul, but Im not sold on them.  And its obvious Frazier is way underpriced, Ive just got a bad feeling.  I wish he was about 7k like he should be so I could just easily ignore him today.

Today Im also trying to figure out multiple lineups.  I have a bunch of tickets for the FD milly, but really suck at multiple lineups.

Edited by NixonMask

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7 minutes ago, NixonMask said:

Ive got 100% Harden.  I have Conley locked in at one of the PGs and have either Plumlee , Adams, or Chandler for salary reasons in all my lineups.  Im just not sure what to do at the other PG.  I like Schroeder, Thomas, and Paul, but Im not sold on them.  And its obvious Frazier is way underpriced, Ive just got a bad feeling.  I wish he was about 7k like he should be so I could just easily ignore him today.

Today Im also trying to figure out multiple lineups.  I have a bunch of tickets for the FD milly, but really suck at multiple lineups.

I considered the "dueling PG" approach tonight with Conley and Frazier. Then I would roll out Harden at SG. I think I'm going to stick w/ Westy though. 

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Here's mine-

PG Russell Westbrook 12000
PG Tim Frazier 5500
SG Avery Bradley 6500
SG Courtney Lee 3700
SF Carmelo Anthony 7500
SF T.J. Warren 5500
PF Anthony Davis 10700
PF Richaun Holmes 3500
C Steven Adams 5000

Fading Harden, I don't know why, but could only pick 2 and he got left out.

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hate my lineup today but i post it so you can all laugh when i put up 235 tonight...

lowry frazier

derozan kcp

melo tjw

porzingis brow

zeller

 

didnt love any of the big 4 stars tonight so went with a middle of the road lineup.  warren is the only player i really felt was like a lock today.  and not really all that much of one.  normally i go more stars and scrubs-y.  dont love the pace of the tor/was games from last year but locked up their backcourt which will hopefully give me a high floor.  my last spot was sg and it was close between matthews and kcp and some other guys.  just kinda ran out of time tonight.  meh.

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I think we've identified what could go wrong.  Holmes with two fouls in about a minute.  Does anyone have a metric for what percentage of the time a player is in " foul trouble" early?

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34 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

...and...cue the worst shooting night of derozans career

If you remove the playoffs then you may be correct 

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59 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

...and...cue the worst shooting night of derozans career

Hes over 30 points midway through the 3rd.  Meanwhile Conley, my safety net, is killing me.

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I very seldom play NBA DFS and I don't really know anything about it.  But I wanted to get some NBA action while watching the World Series this evening... started checking out the FBG NBA DFS stuff at around 8:20 and found it lacking to be honest.  Given that I started looking at this late, I really only had the option of the "late slate" which included these games:  DAL @ UTA, POR @ PHO, and OKC @ LAC.  

Couple issues I found:  IVC doesn't give you an option for the different slates (or even a way to exclude players by team and/or game... pretty big oversight IMO if the slates aren't provided).  Also, the last update for the "breaking news" page occurred at 6:24 PM EST - so no breaking updates for the late games... I might have started someone who is out or whatever.

Haven't looked at this a lot, but I'm not impressed with the NBA DFS coverage based on the last 45 minutes of me trying to put a lineup together for tonight.

 

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57 minutes ago, Devin Knotts said:

Frazier was 75% owned. Davis was 65% in cash, two highest owned players on the slate, and they both lay complete eggs.

That NO-MEM game was unwatchable. NO had quarters in which they scored 11, 13, and 16 and they still went to OT. Absolutely brutal. 

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On 10/26/2016 at 6:58 PM, NixonMask said:

He is such a sicko.  Hes not fooling me though.  First time I get suckered in and play in him cash Im getting 30 seconds before his in the locker room with a toe owie.  I've played that game before, no thanks.

Stupid Nixon!

 

7 hours ago, NixonMask said:


Obviously its a sample size of 1, but Frazier's and Brow's 1 bad game so far this year were on the road.  It was also their only 2nd game of a B2B so far this year.

Is 2 a trend?

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22 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

That NO-MEM game was unwatchable. NO had quarters in which they scored 11, 13, and 16 and they still went to OT. Absolutely brutal. 

One of the worst games I've ever seen. Vegas had this at 206, so they were wrong, we were wrong, the entire fantasy industry was wrong with the ownership percentages. Just frustrating.

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It took a missed Westbrook free throw and Crawford rebound with 0.1 secs left to get my only win on the main and late game slates.  $19 in, $1.80 out.

Fared a little better on the short slates winning 2 of 4.  $5 in, $5.40.

That's leaves my bonehead move of the night.  Saw a 5 person tourney at $100 ea that only had one entry with 8 secs left to lock.  Figured I might get some overlay but it magically filled.  Only managed 222 pts but it was good for 2nd place and $150.  Got very lucky with only 4.4 its from Hill.  Won't do that again.

Up $30 on the night and $1.60 on the year.  2 winning days, 4 losing days.

 

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282 cash LU, cashed all

Cashed in 2 $3 GPPs, 282 and 298

And won a $25.00 NFL Sunday Million ticket at 282.60

Good night

 

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9 hours ago, Steeler said:

I very seldom play NBA DFS and I don't really know anything about it.  But I wanted to get some NBA action while watching the World Series this evening... started checking out the FBG NBA DFS stuff at around 8:20 and found it lacking to be honest.  Given that I started looking at this late, I really only had the option of the "late slate" which included these games:  DAL @ UTA, POR @ PHO, and OKC @ LAC.  

Couple issues I found:  IVC doesn't give you an option for the different slates (or even a way to exclude players by team and/or game... pretty big oversight IMO if the slates aren't provided).  Also, the last update for the "breaking news" page occurred at 6:24 PM EST - so no breaking updates for the late games... I might have started someone who is out or whatever.

Haven't looked at this a lot, but I'm not impressed with the NBA DFS coverage based on the last 45 minutes of me trying to put a lineup together for tonight.

 

Finished 1585th / 1960th -- I'm pretty sure the NBA isn't for me.

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Put up 307 last night. Thanks to Devin for the Larry Nance Jr recommendation. He was a great punt play and only 1.9% owned in most of the tourneys I was in. I faded both Frazier and AD, I wish I went Amir and Gasol instead of Blake and Adams, but live and learn. Pretty low scoring night last night compared to the past week. 

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558th out of 568 in one of my double-ups. Whoo-hoo. 

I was not good. Sucks b/c Wednesday's are my best days to drill down on my NBA lineups -- inlaws get the kids after school and don't bring them home til about 7:00 and my wife works late, so I have about 2 hours of unencumbered time. Pretty much wasted that time this week. 

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11 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

It took a missed Westbrook free throw and Crawford rebound with 0.1 secs left to get my only win on the main and late game slates.  $19 in, $1.80 out.

Fared a little better on the short slates winning 2 of 4.  $5 in, $5.40.

That's leaves my bonehead move of the night.  Saw a 5 person tourney at $100 ea that only had one entry with 8 secs left to lock.  Figured I might get some overlay but it magically filled.  Only managed 222 pts but it was good for 2nd place and $150.  Got very lucky with only 4.4 its from Hill.  Won't do that again.

Up $30 on the night and $1.60 on the year.  2 winning days, 4 losing days.

 

every time ive ever tried this its backfired.  did it like week 3 and saw a gtd double up go from like 75 open spots to filled in something like 22 seconds.  i wonder if theres a lag or something especially as you get close to lock.  or perhaps a bunch of people are hovering over the submit button waiting?

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Thoughts on these Cash LU for tonight

 

Payton/Murray/Anteto/Olaidipo/KD/Wiggins/Jokic/AmirJohn/Towns

Smart/Curry/Anteto/Olipa/George/Wigg/Ibaka/Amir/Adams

Payton/Curry/Fourn/Olap/KD/Wigg/Jokic/Parker/Adams

 

GPPs

Tylaw/Curry/Olip/Klay/Olad/KD/Wigg/Green/Kanter/Adams

Curry/Murray/Ant/Klay/KD/Labron/Kanter/Amir/TThomas

Payton/TYlaw/Ant/Klay/KD/Wigg/Dieng/Ibaka/Adams

Payton/Smart/Ant/Klay/KD/Gordon/Dieng/parker/Adams

Curry/Murray/Fourn/Lavine/KD/Labron/parker/Amir/MTurner

 

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41 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

every time ive ever tried this its backfired.  did it like week 3 and saw a gtd double up go from like 75 open spots to filled in something like 22 seconds.  i wonder if theres a lag or something especially as you get close to lock.  or perhaps a bunch of people are hovering over the submit button waiting?

There also a lag when multiple players enter at the same time for the software to catch up, so if there is a large overaly there could be thousands of people registering in the last 10 seconds so it takes a while for the site to catch up

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5 minutes ago, Megla said:

Thoughts on these Cash LU for tonight

 

Payton/Murray/Anteto/Olaidipo/KD/Wiggins/Jokic/AmirJohn/Towns

Smart/Curry/Anteto/Olipa/George/Wigg/Ibaka/Amir/Adams

Payton/Curry/Fourn/Olap/KD/Wigg/Jokic/Parker/Adams

 

GPPs

Tylaw/Curry/Olip/Klay/Olad/KD/Wigg/Green/Kanter/Adams

Curry/Murray/Ant/Klay/KD/Labron/Kanter/Amir/TThomas

Payton/TYlaw/Ant/Klay/KD/Wigg/Dieng/Ibaka/Adams

Payton/Smart/Ant/Klay/KD/Gordon/Dieng/parker/Adams

Curry/Murray/Fourn/Lavine/KD/Labron/parker/Amir/MTurner

 

Personally for me, in cash I would start with Westbrook and work my way from there. His floor is just too high to ignore. I havent dug too deep into this slate, but I would work on getting as many chalk plays in as possible. Players like Westbrook, Dunn, Dieng, Love, Durant, Anteko, George. 

I think Curry is a great GPP play tonight, but a little too risky for my taste in cash. 

Oladipo in cash, no thanks. Klay might guard Westbrook tonight, but he might also guard Oladipo.

Amir - only if Horford is out again tonight. 

Towns- He has a decent matchup tonight, depends on what Nurkic shows up. I think you have safer options in Myles Turner for cheaper or Cousins if you pay up. 

Just my 2 cents. Im no way an expert. 

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8 minutes ago, Timmay said:

Personally for me, in cash I would start with Westbrook and work my way from there. His floor is just too high to ignore. I havent dug too deep into this slate, but I would work on getting as many chalk plays in as possible. Players like Westbrook, Dunn, Dieng, Love, Durant, Anteko, George. 

I think Curry is a great GPP play tonight, but a little too risky for my taste in cash. 

Oladipo in cash, no thanks. Klay might guard Westbrook tonight, but he might also guard Oladipo.

Amir - only if Horford is out again tonight. 

Towns- He has a decent matchup tonight, depends on what Nurkic shows up. I think you have safer options in Myles Turner for cheaper or Cousins if you pay up. 

Just my 2 cents. Im no way an expert. 

Thanks for the input, I worry about the back to back with Westy and Horford has already been ruled out for tonight.

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Just now, Megla said:

Thanks for the input, I worry about the back to back with Westy and Horford has already been ruled out for tonight.

While I agree the back to back with Westy is a little worrisome, his usage is just so big to ignore in cash games no matter what the situation imo. And if you are worried about the back to back with Westy/Thunder and therefore the game might turn into a blowout, then you could argue that Steph isnt going to get his usual minutes either. 

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10 minutes ago, Timmay said:

 And if you are worried about the back to back with Westy/Thunder and therefore the game might turn into a blowout, then you could argue that Steph isnt going to get his usual minutes either. 

True, but I'm not so much worried about a blowout, its the 33 minutes played in a late game last night that worries me about Westy.

 

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