David Dodds

Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS

2,385 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Bobcat10 said:

Why would they start a 4 round NBA survivor tonight?  I have a voucher, so it's not a big deal, but it just seems dumb.

That sucks. Maybe to get extra action tonight?

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Damnit. I may have to throw a bunch of entries into that survivor. 50,000 advance. $50,000 total prizes. Currently only 28,600 entries out of 58,000+. 

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1 hour ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

@Megla @Raging weasel You may want to look at the survivor. Could be a big overlay. I've got 1 entry now. Will enter more @6:50 eastern if it's still way light. 

Thanks, I'm in. Can't resist a survivor

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Ended up with 0.7 units ($21). Was going as fast as I could to get as many as I could on my phone. Would have grabbed more if I could have. $1731 of true overlay, which is +3.462% EV. 

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Thanks, I'm in. Can't resist a survivor

Good deal. I wasn't going to play at all, but given the fact that advancement is guaranteed tonight I figured it's ok. 

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12 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Ended up with 0.7 units ($21). Was going as fast as I could to get as many as I could on my phone. Would have grabbed more if I could have. $1731 of true overlay, which is +3.462% EV. 

Didn't see your message until right before lock so only got 1 entry. Was in the car using my phone and it was so slow wasn't sure I'd even get that.

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Figures this is on a night I decided to take off, oh well

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Wow. Boogie to NO. I'm all ears about how anyone thinks this plays out from a DFS perspective. From a straight hoops perspective I expect Jrue and Boogie to immediately start working on the pick-and-roll with Brow working on back screens. That might be as close to an unguardable combo as there is in the NBA today. 

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On 2/20/2017 at 11:37 AM, Tennessee_ATO said:

Wow. Boogie to NO. I'm all ears about how anyone thinks this plays out from a DFS perspective. From a straight hoops perspective I expect Jrue and Boogie to immediately start working on the pick-and-roll with Brow working on back screens. That might be as close to an unguardable combo as there is in the NBA today. 

Against some lesser teams you are going to have to pick the right guy or 2 to go off for DFS, against the better teams all 3 guys will be in play.

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3 hours ago, msudaisy26 said:

Against some lesser teams you are going to have to pick the right guy or 2 to go off for DFS, against the better teams all 3 guys will be in play.

Feels like Jrue could be in perma-consideration for GPPs. It'll be interesting to see how they hold-up defensively against smaller teams. They debut against Houston. 

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And now Houston adds a really nice piece w/ Lou. I think he's going to fit really well there. I'm not sure how great it will be for him in DFS, but Houston is a lot better now than they were IMO. 

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had a link in my email to play the 5k bus nba tourney. looks like a good deal, $2 entry 2940 players and top 880 spots pays (29.9%) at least $4 and top 100 get ticket to next contest to play a round of golf with the bus. Think it has a 50 entries max which seems high for such a small gpp.

Since this is my first year of playing nba dfs when do I need to start worrying about good teams resting their starters for the playoffs and bad teams tanking for draft position?

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36 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

 

Since this is my first year of playing nba dfs when do I need to start worrying about good teams resting their starters for the playoffs and bad teams tanking for draft position?

Hard to say. I think you will see some teams rest guys now, and start ramping up the intensity closer to the playoffs. Teams like Boston I think will play for seeding. Everyone will be different tho. As far as tanking, teams like Brooklyn and the Lakers literally can't be any worse than they have been. Also, tanking doesn't necessarily hurt DFS performances. 

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Back on the horse for tonight

1.  Who plays C for Sac?

2. Jokic cost more than AD, is that the Boogi effect?

3. Mello at Clev, a must start?

4. GS- they are a 12.5 point fav over LAC, will we get 4 quarters out of their starters?

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1 hour ago, Megla said:

Back on the horse for tonight

1.  Who plays C for Sac?

2. Jokic cost more than AD, is that the Boogi effect?

3. Mello at Clev, a must start?

4. GS- they are a 12.5 point fav over LAC, will we get 4 quarters out of their starters?

I don't know about C, but it seems WCS should get lots of play in Sac w/ no boogie or Gay. 

Salaries were set b/4 trades. I think Jokic costs more because he's awesome and more consistent. Jokic is a star IMO. 

Melo looks like he's in a good spot for sure. 

I doubt it, but if they get rolling, 3.5 quarters might be good enough. That team has so many options though that I'm a little gun shy anyway. 

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FYI, keep your ears on for trade news. Guys who are moved today won't play today. Also guys who are involved in serious talks may be last-second scratches due to injury fears even if they aren't ultimately traded. 

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Liking a Holiday combo tonight I think.

Looks like Lord Payton will be starting

Can you start both WCS and Koufos in the same LU

 

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NNoel to Dallas

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25 minutes ago, Megla said:

NNoel to Dallas

Wow. And Embiid out for some time. Okafor seems like a must play tomorrow. 

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58 minutes ago, Megla said:

Liking a Holiday combo tonight I think.

Looks like Lord Payton will be starting

Can you start both WCS and Koufos in the same LU

 

Both of those combos have real appeal to me. 

Ive got to decide on how I approach this survivor. I need to finish outside bottom 48.2%. I have 21 spots. Go one massive train or break it up into 2 or 3 smaller trains?

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This one leaves $1600 unspent, but I don't know where to spend it, or if I even really need to. 

Nelson/Jrue

Holiday/Klay

Morris/LBJ

WCS/Blake

Koufos

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4 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

This one leaves $1600 unspent, but I don't know where to spend it, or if I even really need to. 

Nelson/Jrue

Holiday/Klay

Morris/LBJ

WCS/Blake

Koufos

Think I'm morphing to:

Lillard/Jrue

Holiday/Klay

Gordon/LBJ

WCS/Blake

Koufos

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A couple things I noticed for tonight. The Kings only have 3 bigs that are expected to play any big minutes. WCS, Kofus and Tollivar. The Pelicans only have 3 active guards to play tonight Holliday, Moore, and Frazier in a high tempo game.

 

Kemba/Jrue

Harden/Moore

Ariza/Gordon

Kamisky/WCS

Vuvecic

My problem with this lineup is I really want to get Lebron or Kyrie in there, ideally my lineup would look like this

Kyrie/Jrue

Harden/Moore

LBJ/Gordon

WCs/????

?????

with only 7200 left, but there is value there to do it

 

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I'm going with these

survivor

walker lillard

harden moore

morris ross

jokic wcs

koufos

5k the bus gpp

walker collison

kcp fournier

lbj durant

leuer porzingas

nurkic

and

payton beverly

harden moore

james gordon

griffin wcs

koufos

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LOL, looks like ~16.5% forgot to update their lineups in the survivor. That takes more than 8000 out of the running and gives it a huge effective overlay of ~$9731 for an EV of +24%. That's ridiculous. 

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21 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

LOL, looks like ~16.5% forgot to update their lineups in the survivor. That takes more than 8000 out of the running and gives it a huge effective overlay of ~$9731 for an EV of +24%. That's ridiculous. 

Nice. The bus contest I'm in didn't fill so now 47.3% at least double their money. Looking like it could be a decent night.

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Made the cut in the survivor but more importantly my 1st lineup for The Bus gpp finished in 3rd. That's good for $100 and an entry in the contest playing for a golf trip with the Bus.

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Damn-just noticed that Porzingas' injury likely cost me 1st and a $500 win as he didn't play the second half and I only needed 5 more points.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Damn-just noticed that Porzingas' injury likely cost me 1st and a $500 win as he didn't play the second half and I only needed 5 more points.

Nice job regardless. I was all-in on the Holidays. Absolutely horrible. I could have survived Justin (I was also all-in on WCS, Gordon, and LBJ), but not Jrue too. Even my Nurkic lineups didn't advance. I've lost a lot more money in one day before, but this was one of the most disappointing nights for me in a long time. 

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It just hit me -- I had 2 lineups w/ 2 guys who were sub-$100 per point (and who weren't THAT highly owned) fail to cash in a contest that basically the top 63% advanced in. Plus they both had a 5-figure guy come in sub-$200 per point. 

That's actually impressive in a really bad way. 

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How many of your survivor line ups ended up advancing?

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13 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Oof. Courtney Lee is playing. I'm a tad exposed on Holiday.

As in 100%. 

You and I both, this alone lets you know how my night was.

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Going to need some luck to survive tonight.I'm usually terrible playing large slates because there are too many good choices. Going to build around Leonard/Millsap but can't decide between westy or KAT as the next piece.

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Wonder how many of ATO's LUs will have S Adams in them :P

Cash LU

JNel/Lowry

Wade/Olap

WChand/Wiggs

Sacir/BPortis

SAdams

 

3 GPP LUs

Westy/JNel                                   Drag/DAng                  TJMcCOn/JNel

Wade/Kilp                                    Booker/Barton              Olap/THJ

Butler/Otto                                   RobCov/HBarnes         TJW/Crowder

BPortis/Favors                             Markif/Ibaka                Jokic/BPortis

Oakafor                                        BLopez                        KAT

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8 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

How many of your survivor line ups ended up advancing?

Including my long-shot, contrarian lineups?

 

none. 

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