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NBA 2016-17 Over/Under Wins: Pick 3 & Show Your Work (1 Viewer)

Eephus

Eephus

Footballguy
These lines are a couple weeks old but they are post-Middleton and post-Bosh


Atlanta Hawks


44


Boston Celtics


52.5


Brooklyn Nets


21.5


Charlotte Hornets


40.5


Chicago Bulls


38.5


Cleveland Cavaliers


56.5


Dallas Mavericks


39


Denver Nuggets


36.5


Detroit Pistons


46


Golden State Warriors


66.5


Houston Rockets


43.5


Indiana Pacers


45


Los Angeles Clippers


54


Los Angeles Lakers


25


Memphis Grizzlies


43.5


Miami Heat


35


Milwaukee Bucks


36


Minnesota Timberwolves


41.5


New Orleans Pelicans


36.5


New York Knicks


40


Oklahoma City Thunder


45.5


Orlando Magic


36.5


Philadelphia 76ers


OFF THE BOARD


Phoenix Suns


28.5


Portland Trail Blazers


45.5


Sacramento Kings


32.5


San Antonio Spurs


57.5


Toronto Raptors


50.6


Utah Jazz


47.5


Washington Wizards


42.5

 
Denver - 36.5 OVER

This is a bit of a homer pick, but the Nuggets won 33 picks last year while blatantly tanking the last 10 or so games of the year.  They didn't really lose anybody or make any signings, but Wilson Chandler was out all last year and is healthy (for now), Jusuf Nurkic had a torn patella tendon that caused him to miss over half of last year and he wasn't right the 32 games he played, Jamal Murray looks like he will be a positive contributor, their young core (Nurkic, Jokic, Mudiay, Harris) is a year older, and their old core (Faried, Gallo, Chandler) are between 26 and 29 so are still in their peaks. There is also a good chance that if they start out well through the first two months of the season, they will look to make a trade to improve for this season with their assets.

Minnesota - 41.5 UNDER

Don't get me wrong, I'm on board for their arrival as a perennial playoff team, but not this year. A 13 win jump would be pretty impressive (for comparison, the Nuggets would have to make a 4 win jump) and I find it a bit unlikely with their biggest signing being Cole Aldrich. Really, I view Denver and Minnesota's young guys pretty similarly on the whole. KAT is the best of the bunch, but beyond KAT (which I understand is a huge "but") the Nugget's young core will prove to be better and deeper. Without much of a strong veteran base, the Wolves will need huge jumps by Lavine, Wiggins and Towns to jump to 42 wins. With a year of seasoning and a couple biggish moves next offseason I could see them making a jump to the high 40s or low 50s in wins in 17-18.

NYK - 40 UNDER

I've always been a bit of a Melo apologist, but he can't save this sinking ship. They are still trying to run some of the triangle with players that can't run it. Derrick Rose is toast as an NBA player and his backup Jennings probably is too. Noah is almost 32, coming off a injury plagued season that was preceded by and injury riddled disappointing season, and even if mostly healthy (he's played more than 67 games once in the last 7 years so even that is a stretch) he's not much better than Lopez who he is replacing. I actually like the Lee signing and PORZINGIS! should make strides this year, but I don't see 9 wins of improvement in the moves they made this offseason combined with Porzingis' improvement.

I'd also take the over on Toronto (I don't think last year was a fluke), Houston (They'll be fun even if they don't hit the over, Howard is a cancer), and LAC (Griffin is healthy and less punchy, they'll suck up some of the SAS and OKC). Take the under on Memphis (old, Parsons was a bad signing), Dallas (old, Barnes sucks), and Chicago (ignoring the 3 point line in 2016 seems like a poor idea).

 
Orlando Magic 36.5

So if you look at their division, Miami is going to be much worse. I think Atlanta is going to be slightly worse.

The Wizards and Hornets are going to be no better than last season. Perhaps possibly no worse though. (Disclaimer: I don't know a ton about their teams)

Orlando, meanwhile, might be a dumpster fire. 

C- Vucevic, Biyombo. Pretty much polar opposites. Which makes me feel great until you realize they are both lacking huge parts of a solid game. I had hoped Vucevic and Ibaka would share minutes at the 5, with Gordon getting at least 20 minutes at the 4. That doesn't seem to be the plan. It'll be interesting to see how the minutes split. I know they hope Biyombo raises Vucevic defensive game but I am not holding my breath. Vucevic is passing better and playing better D from what I've read. Biyombo/Ibaka/Gordon line is going to be fun to watch switching everything. But they will be too bad on offense to survive for long stretches.

PF- Ibaka, Gordon. No idea what Ibaka has left in the tank. I think he might be older than listed but I am pretty sure he can still play great D and score a little bit. My concern, is that they are relying on him to be the go to guy. Not ideal. Aaron Gordon won't get a ton of minutes at 4 I fear. Pretty sure, Jeff Green (not a joke) steals some minutes at the 4and Biyombo and Vucevic get a few minutes on the floor together. 

SF-Gordon, Green, and Hezonja. Aaron Gordon can't shoot. He cant handle the basketball. He can't create his own shot. He can't pass well enough for a 3. So it makes sense they are going to play him here the majority of the time. I love Gordon. He is going to be a star. But I cannot understand why they are going to try to get him playing away from the rim. I'm already throwing my remote imagining Gordon, Biyombo, and Elfrid playing offense. The spacing won't be Golden Statesque. Jeff Green seems to be enjoying his role as the old vet, but I'm pretty sure it's because they are paying him $15 million. Lol #### me. I want to see Gordon at 4 and Hezonja at the 3 some....(that's what I said)

SG- Fournier, Hezonja, Meeks. Fournier can't play any D. But he, Ibaka and Vucevic are going to have to be their shooters. (Hey GS!) Fournier might lead the team in points but I'm pretty confident he is going to lead them in shots. He has no problem chucking the rock. I think he could be a great asset on a championship team. I worry that he will shoot them out of a few games this year though. Hezonja is going to be a great shooter. He still is too careless with the ball. He cannot continue to play undisciplined D either. But I think he will take a step up this year. Not sure what we will with him consistently, but I'm excited to see him grow.

PG- Payton, Augustin. I don't know a ton about Augustin, but we sure paid him like I should. I believe in Payton's ability to play Defense, dribble-drive-dish, and rebound. I saw him in half a dozen games last season where he was the best player on the court. He dominated some stretches and it was awesome to watch. But boy cannot he not shoot. And the league is becoming a shooting league. He can't shoot FTs. He can't shoot 3s. He can't hit mid range open looks when defenders are going below screens. #### he barely even takes them. If he learned to shoot, great. If he didn't (hint: he didn't) they aren't going to struggle in half court.

Overall: I think they are going to play amazing D. Biyombo and Ibaka are gong to protect the rim. Last season they relied on Jason Smith and Dedmond to do that. Aaron Gordon is kind of athletic so that could be something to watch. I think Hezonja and Fournier would need to take big leaps this season. For as much fault as Oladipo had, he shoulder a lot of the load last season. He was their best on ball defender and at times was their best guard attacking the rim. He improved his shooting but sadly it still isn't great. 

Something tells me they are trying to fit like 10 guys into the job of 5 guys. I don't know how Vogel is going to find the right lineups. I don't want to see them playing musical chairs out there. Let them grow together and see what shakes out. Ok, this is getting long... Sorry.

Prediction: Under 36.5. Listen, ownership is all in this season. They think they can make the playoffs and I'm pretty sure Henigans job is depending on it. But they have no idea what kind of lineups are going to work. I know this because they still haven't played a preseason game with the entire roster yet. (Hopefully tomorrow night) My point is, they are going to do a lot of soul searching at the beginning of the season. They will struggle and I'm pretty sure a few trades will be coming in season. Too much depends on AG playing well at the 3 right away, Ibaka being at minimum the 2nd offensive option, and Hezonja/Vucevic taking big steps forward on a consistent basis.

Also, Jeff Green.

 
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - OVER

Pieces fit together horribly, but individually they're all pretty talented, and all pretty good defensively.  I see 41-41.

New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - UNDER

Besides Anthony Davis (who's always hurt) they seem like a complete dumpster fire.

Miami Heat 35 - OVER

Dion. Waiters.

 
scoobus said:
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - OVER

Pieces fit together horribly, but individually they're all pretty talented, and all pretty good defensively.  I see 41-41.
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Rondo and Wade were good defenders in their primes but are net negatives now. Butler is nice. Mitotic who should start at PF is somewhere between poor and awful. Lopez is fine. Their bench is a mixed bag as well. MCW and Gibson are good, Portis, McBuckets, and Valentine will all be bad. They'll be average at best as a team.

 
San Antonio- over 57.5. I was feeling better about this one until the news came out that Aldridge is acting like a head case. But they won 67(!) games last year and didn't fall back that much. The guards are older, but they've got younger and more athletic on the bench. Gasol is as much of an improvement on Duncan on offense as he is a downgrade on defense. 

Sacramento 32.5 over - Look, they won 33 last year and there's no real argument they got worse at any position, unless you think Cousins is going to flip out and demand a trade. The latter is a distinct possibility, but believe it or not Karl to Joerger is almost as big of an upgrade at the coaching spot that Mitchel to Thibs is in Minnesota. They also go 10-11 deep on legit NBA rotation players for the first time since the 2006 season. 

Hornets 40.5 over - Won 48 last year, lost Lin, Lee, and Big Al, but MKG is returning from injury. Clifford is still one of the best coaches in the league. I think they are a safe bet for mid 40s again. 

Honorable mention - Clippers over 54, Wizards over 42.5, Jazz under 47.5, Heat under 35

 
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Kev4029 said:
Rondo and Wade were good defenders in their primes but are net negatives now. Butler is nice. Mitotic who should start at PF is somewhere between poor and awful. Lopez is fine. Their bench is a mixed bag as well. MCW and Gibson are good, Portis, McBuckets, and Valentine will all be bad. They'll be average at best as a team.
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So... 41-41.

 
scoobus said:
So... 41-41.
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Average at best defensively, probably worse. They won't rebound the ball well (Lopez, Mirotic and Gibson are all poor defensive rebounders). They certainly won't shoot well. Their guards are going to take the ball away from Butler, who gets a bit pouty to begin with, but he very well could check out by mid season or be traded anytime between now and the deadline. Rondo is a cancer who has made every team he has been on for the last half decade worse. I think that Chicago is the biggest regression candidate in the NBA, outside of OKC. When things start going south by midseason, they may start trading off any assets they have and go in full tank mode.

 
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Heat - U35

Uh, that team is pretty terrible. Seriously, they have 2 starters on their roster and their bench is awful. 

Dion.Waiters.

NYK - U40

Knicks :lmao:

Raptors - O50.5

Essentially the same team as the last couple years and playing in a craptastic division. Should coast to 53-54.

 
Kev4029 said:
Average at best defensively, probably worse. They won't rebound the ball well (Lopez, Mirotic and Gibson are all poor defensive rebounders). They certainly won't shoot well. Their guards are going to take the ball away from Butler, who gets a bit pouty to begin with, but he very well could check out by mid season or be traded anytime between now and the deadline. Rondo is a cancer who has made every team he has been on for the last half decade worse. I think that Chicago is the biggest regression candidate in the NBA, outside of OKC. When things start going south by midseason, they may start trading off any assets they have and go in full tank mode.
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I'm with Kev, they are going to be terrible. Butler shouldn't go anywhere but their spacing is going to be a problem. 

Also Wade and Rondo will have a huge fight at some point. I'm positive.

 
Memphis UNDER 43.5 - I think Memphis misses the playoffs. Gasol already has foot issues. They are moving Randolph to the bench because they are desperately thin. Parsons hasn't even played yet and will eventually miss a big portion of the season. They are trying a rookie coach. They want to play faster, but their roster isn't built for it outside of Conley.

OKC UNDER 45.5 - I know Westbrook will go crazy, but his workload is going to be insane. This team has desperately poor spacing with Adams, Kanter, and Roberson unable to spread, which will allow teams to clog the lane on Westbrook.  Heaven help them if Westbrook misses a chunk of time (he played 80 last season but 67 and 46 in the two before that). 

Charlotte OVER 40.5 - Jefferson walking isn't going to hurt them when they've got Frank the Tank, baby (and Hibbert)! East coast advantage here...Walker is good. Batum is good. MKG is good in his role. Cody Zeller is better than people think. 

 
GOB said:
Orlando Magic 36.5

So if you look at their division, Miami is going to be much worse. I think Atlanta is going to be slightly worse.

The Wizards and Hornets are going to be no better than last season. Perhaps possibly no worse though. (Disclaimer: I don't know a ton about their teams)

Orlando, meanwhile, might be a dumpster fire. 

C- Vucevic, Biyombo. Pretty much polar opposites. Which makes me feel great until you realize they are both lacking huge parts of a solid game. I had hoped Vucevic and Ibaka would share minutes at the 5, with Gordon getting at least 20 minutes at the 4. That doesn't seem to be the plan. It'll be interesting to see how the minutes split. I know they hope Biyombo raises Vucevic defensive game but I am not holding my breath. Vucevic is passing better and playing better D from what I've read. Biyombo/Ibaka/Gordon line is going to be fun to watch switching everything. But they will be too bad on offense to survive for long stretches.

PF- Ibaka, Gordon. No idea what Ibaka has left in the tank. I think he might be older than listed but I am pretty sure he can still play great D and score a little bit. My concern, is that they are relying on him to be the go to guy. Not ideal. Aaron Gordon won't get a ton of minutes at 4 I fear. Pretty sure, Jeff Green (not a joke) steals some minutes at the 4and Biyombo and Vucevic get a few minutes on the floor together. 

SF-Gordon, Green, and Hezonja. Aaron Gordon can't shoot. He cant handle the basketball. He can't create his own shot. He can't pass well enough for a 3. So it makes sense they are going to play him here the majority of the time. I love Gordon. He is going to be a star. But I cannot understand why they are going to try to get him playing away from the rim. I'm already throwing my remote imagining Gordon, Biyombo, and Elfrid playing offense. The spacing won't be Golden Statesque. Jeff Green seems to be enjoying his role as the old vet, but I'm pretty sure it's because they are paying him $15 million. Lol #### me. I want to see Gordon at 4 and Hezonja at the 3 some....(that's what I said)

SG- Fournier, Hezonja, Meeks. Fournier can't play any D. But he, Ibaka and Vucevic are going to have to be their shooters. (Hey GS!) Fournier might lead the team in points but I'm pretty confident he is going to lead them in shots. He has no problem chucking the rock. I think he could be a great asset on a championship team. I worry that he will shoot them out of a few games this year though. Hezonja is going to be a great shooter. He still is too careless with the ball. He cannot continue to play undisciplined D either. But I think he will take a step up this year. Not sure what we will with him consistently, but I'm excited to see him grow.

PG- Payton, Augustin. I don't know a ton about Augustin, but we sure paid him like I should. I believe in Payton's ability to play Defense, dribble-drive-dish, and rebound. I saw him in half a dozen games last season where he was the best player on the court. He dominated some stretches and it was awesome to watch. But boy cannot he not shoot. And the league is becoming a shooting league. He can't shoot FTs. He can't shoot 3s. He can't hit mid range open looks when defenders are going below screens. #### he barely even takes them. If he learned to shoot, great. If he didn't (hint: he didn't) they aren't going to struggle in half court.

Overall: I think they are going to play amazing D. Biyombo and Ibaka are gong to protect the rim. Last season they relied on Jason Smith and Dedmond to do that. Aaron Gordon is kind of athletic so that could be something to watch. I think Hezonja and Fournier would need to take big leaps this season. For as much fault as Oladipo had, he shoulder a lot of the load last season. He was their best on ball defender and at times was their best guard attacking the rim. He improved his shooting but sadly it still isn't great. 

Something tells me they are trying to fit like 10 guys into the job of 5 guys. I don't know how Vogel is going to find the right lineups. I don't want to see them playing musical chairs out there. Let them grow together and see what shakes out. Ok, this is getting long... Sorry.

Prediction: Under 36.5. Listen, ownership is all in this season. They think they can make the playoffs and I'm pretty sure Henigans job is depending on it. But they have no idea what kind of lineups are going to work. I know this because they still haven't played a preseason game with the entire roster yet. (Hopefully tomorrow night) My point is, they are going to do a lot of soul searching at the beginning of the season. They will struggle and I'm pretty sure a few trades will be coming in season. Too much depends on AG playing well at the 3 right away, Ibaka being at minimum the 2nd offensive option, and Hezonja/Vucevic taking big steps forward on a consistent basis.

Also, Jeff Green.
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Dislike

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Memphis UNDER 43.5 - I think Memphis misses the playoffs. Gasol already has foot issues. They are moving Randolph to the bench because they are desperately thin. Parsons hasn't even played yet and will eventually miss a big portion of the season. They are trying a rookie coach. They want to play faster, but their roster isn't built for it outside of Conley.
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I've done a 180 on the Grizzlies. If 100% healthy all year I think they are a lock for the 4 seed and low to mid 50s in wins, but that's not going to happen. I agree it seems like a given that Parsons is going to miss a huge chunk of time and if they lose either Gasol or Conley to a serious injury on top of that (not at all out of the question), I think they could be looking at 30 wins. 

Semirelated, John Hollinger was on the Ringer NBA pod today and was a good listen. 

 
GSW - OVER 66.5

 Last year was too easy and they add Durant.  Way too much for the regular season on a nightly basis, I like 70 wins.

NOP - UNDER 36.5

Talentless besides brittle Anthony Davis and he doesn't seem nearly enough here.  Quick, name 5 guys here.  Under 36.5 games played by Davis this year too.

NYK - OVER 40

KP 1 year older, besides Rose, Jennings is major upgrade at PG.  Just think an influx of Lee, Rose, Noah and others, coupled with a bad division and conference brings them over .500.

 
Chemical X said:
NOP - UNDER 36.5

Talentless besides brittle Anthony Davis and he doesn't seem nearly enough here.  Quick, name 5 guys here.  Under 36.5 games played by Davis this year too.
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I could see them being pretty good in the 2nd half if they get Jrue and Tyreke back and Hield starts to break out. Lauren Holiday's brain surgery was successful so that's a good sign.

But the opening day starting lineup will include Tim Frazier, Solomon Hill and Omer Asik. They're a Davis injury away from being a bad team by D-league standards. Even if they get everyone healthy later on, they may be in too deep of a hole to get back to 37.

 
OVER:

Charlotte Hornets



40.5

-They are going to build off their 48 win season last year. They bring back most of their team besides Big Al. MKG is back and healthy for now. Hibbert and Bellinelli are great additions, even though Hibbert is a shell of his shelf now, he is still the rim protector that the Hornets have needed for some years now. That is the best thing Hibbert can do. Bellinelli provides them with much needed outside shooting. The games won't be pretty, but more of a grind it out type of games. In the east there is not reason to believe this team wont be over .500 if they can stay healthy for the most part. 


UNDER:

Oklahoma City Thunder



45.5

-No Durant. Without Durant last year and when Westbrook was doing everything for this team, they didnt play well. Westbrook was their only scoring option. Added Oladipo, but he can't shoot. Teams are going to guard the paint and dare Westbrook, Oladipo, and RObertson to shoot from outside. Ibaka and Durant were the best shooters on the team and they are both gone. If Westbrook gets hurt at all this year, watch out this could get ugly. 

UNDER:


Atlanta Hawks


44

-This is more of a bet against Dwiiiight than anything else. The Hawks are going to miss Horford. Millsap can only carry this team so far. I love Bazemore, but more he is more of a hustle guy, Worked well with spacers like Horford and Millsap who can do things on the outside, so he can crash the boards. Schreoder is a another player I like, but he can't shoot the ball. Can Korver find his stroke this season after a down year last year? They will be close to .500 in the east, but im betting they will be just that .500

 
Timmay said:
. Hibbert and Bellinelli are great additions, even though Hibbert is a shell of his shelf now, he is still the rim protector that the Hornets have needed for some years now. That is the best thing Hibbert can do. Bellinelli provides them with much needed outside shooting. 


 


 
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Bellinelli and to a lesser extent, Hibbert have claims to being among the five worst players in the league last year.  Bellinelli was one of the worst acquisitions any team made in the offseason (bc they gave up a first rounder for him); at least they got Hibbert on a flier contract. 

 
thecatch said:
Bellinelli and to a lesser extent, Hibbert have claims to being among the five worst players in the league last year.  Bellinelli was one of the worst acquisitions any team made in the offseason (bc they gave up a first rounder for him); at least they got Hibbert on a flier contract. 
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They both fill glaring needs for the Hornets. Rim protection from Hibbert and outside shooting from Belli. They were both on terrible teams last year. Im not saying this is going to help the Hornets in years to come, mainly because of losing that 1st round pick, but this is going to help this year. I'd bet on the over 40.5.

 
Timmay said:
They both fill glaring needs for the Hornets. Rim protection from Hibbert and outside shooting from Belli. They were both on terrible teams last year. Im not saying this is going to help the Hornets in years to come, mainly because of losing that 1st round pick, but this is going to help this year. I'd bet on the over 40.5.
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Bellinelli shot beyond terribly last year despite getting plenty of opportunity and really has only played well for the Spurs. He's a massive, massive downgrade on Lee. That said, I agree with you on the over and took them as one of my three picks a few posts up. The loss of Lin and the Lee-Bellinelli downgrade are the two things that have me most nervous about the pick, though. 

 
Eephus said:
These lines are a couple weeks old but they are post-Middleton and post-Bosh


Atlanta Hawks


44   UNDER


Boston Celtics


52.5  OVER


Brooklyn Nets


21.5   UNDER


Charlotte Hornets


40.5  UNDER


Chicago Bulls


38.5   OVER


Cleveland Cavaliers


56.5   OVER


Dallas Mavericks


39  OVER


Denver Nuggets


36.5   UNDER


Detroit Pistons


46  UNDER


Golden State Warriors


66.5  UNDER


Houston Rockets


43.5   OVER


Indiana Pacers


45  OVER


Los Angeles Clippers


54  UNDER


Los Angeles Lakers


25  UNDER


Memphis Grizzlies


43.5   OVER


Miami Heat


35  UNDER


Milwaukee Bucks


36  OVER


Minnesota Timberwolves


41.5 OVER!


New Orleans Pelicans


36.5  UNDER


New York Knicks


40  OVER!


Oklahoma City Thunder


45.5  OVER


Orlando Magic


36.5  UNDER


Philadelphia 76ers


OFF THE BOARD  UNDER


Phoenix Suns


28.5  OVER


Portland Trail Blazers


45.5  OVER


Sacramento Kings


32.5  UNDER


San Antonio Spurs


57.5  UNDER


Toronto Raptors


50.6 (?)  OVER


Utah Jazz


47.5  ugh. OVER?


Washington Wizards


42.5  UNDER
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Will revisit to see how terrible I was at year's end.  Search key: trepredicts

 
Timmay said:
They both fill glaring needs for the Hornets. Rim protection from Hibbert and outside shooting from Belli. They were both on terrible teams last year. Im not saying this is going to help the Hornets in years to come, mainly because of losing that 1st round pick, but this is going to help this year. I'd bet on the over 40.5.
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I agree with thecatch, Belinelli is terrible and as he is approaching 31 years old, I don't see him being worth a rotation spot on any team. The fact that they gave up a first rounder for him is embarrassing. The guard that they could have taken at 22 (Luwawu, Richardson, Korkmaz, even a PG like Murray or Ulis) would have been probably equally effective this year and obviously better going forward. He may have been the worst veteran wing in the NBA to play significant minutes last year, if not the worst, certainly bottom 5. At best he bounces back to replacement level where he has spent the majority of his career minus a good season in San Antonio, but I think that may be optimistic.

As for Hibbert, the signing for $5mil wasn't bad, with the assumption that he would be a 4th/5th big, but as a starter, he's way too slow to play against any athletes and he is totally incapable of covering the pick and roll. And defense is the good part of his game, he rebounds like a small forward and he might be the worst offensive big in the NBA. If you could pick and choose when to give him minutes, he could be a productive player, but if starts and gets 1900 minutes like he has the past couple years, the Hornets are going to be a really bad team.

 
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Here is what ESPN had to say:

Minnesota Timberwolves

Erin Rynning: Minnesota was fortunate to add key pieces Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins among others for supreme building blocks. Of course, Towns especially flashed his potential in his rookie season, averaging more than 18 points per game and 10 rebounds as the counting statistics were just the appetizer for the 7-footer's potential. No question, the Timberwolves can move forward with their plethora of young talent, but it gets much better with the addition of Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach. He proved himself as a top-shelf coach before the Bulls essentially quit on him in his final year in Chicago. The Bulls' drop-off in play is also evidence of excellence. Thibodeau owns a 255-139 regular season record as lead man on the bench, but his defensive prowess will be the vital link with this developing team. Minnesota finished the 2015-16 campaign ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, but with their new system and capable defensive athleticism, the top 10 is certainly possible. The Timberwolves will feature rapid ascension with huge difference-makers Towns and Wiggins in recent drafts, while now paired with sound basketball evolution with Thibodeau will prove a dangerous combination.

Play: Timberwolves OVER 42 wins

Toronto Raptors

Dave Tuley: This is where I expect most people who are with me on the Raptors to place their bets. The over/under is set pretty low at 50.5 compared to other top contenders, and also consider that the Raptors won 56 games last season. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the stars (and both won gold medals at the Olympics), but I also like the supporting cast. Jonas Valanciunas continues to improve at center and they added Jared Sullinger at power forward, though he will miss the first two or three months following foot surgery. Playing in the Eastern Conference also helps them in picking up some easier wins along the way than if they were playing in the deeper Western Conference.

Play: Raptors OVER 50.5 wins

Denver Nuggets

Rynning: The Nuggets' brass has done a brilliant job putting the franchise in position as a benchmark to start making waves in the Western Conference. Their roster is full of potential, as good health and continuing development would lead to a promising campaign. Nikola Jokic is the cornerstone building piece as the versatile 21-year-old big man is the catalyst for the Nuggets' success. However, the starting backcourt of Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay and expected starting center Jusuf Nurkic will need at least marginal improvement for the Nuggets to project as a playoff contender in the West. Of course, a healthy season from go-to scorer Danilo Gallinari would go a long way for the Nuggets' playoff chances as well. Importantly, head coach Michael Malone is a solid fit for moving this young club forward in their development on both ends of the court. The Nuggets might be under the radar to start in the 2016-17 season, but they'll have a great chance to shine brightly late.

Play: Nuggets OVER 37.5 wins

New York Knicks

Rynning: Take your pick: age, depth, chemistry and/or a battle of wills. It's difficult to see the vision of Phil Jackson working out again this year in New York. The Knicks won 32 games a season ago, and the additions of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah hardly seem like the answer at this stage of their careers. Both are limited by past injuries at his point, while a healthy Carmelo Anthony is a question mark as well. Regrettably, this roster is limited in the depth department as well, while the expected injury bug will wreak havoc on the court. Of course, when dealing with this Knicks' organization, chemistry is a dilemma, whether on the court, off the court or all mixed together. The likes of Rose, Anthony and Brandon Jennings as the expected catalysts for team success, and the improvement of others on the hardwood, feels like a supreme long shot. Again, there are more issues with the expected success with this team, like perimeter shooting and defense, but for it to all come together for the Knicks certainly seems like wishful thinking.

Play: Knicks UNDER 40.5

Miami Heat

Tuley: This team has obviously been on a downward trend since James took his talents back to Cleveland. Now, Dwyane Wade has left for Chicago, Chris Bosh is gone due to his blood clots, and other key contributors like Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Amar'e Stoudemire are also gone. This is clearly a team that is rebuilding and willing to take a horrendous season or two to accumulate some lottery picks. Donald Whiteside is a star, but he can't do it alone. The win total is relatively low, but I don't think it was set low enough for the team they're putting on the court.

[SIZE=11pt]Play: Heat UNDER 34.5[/SIZE]
 
Timmay said:
UNDER:


Atlanta Hawks


44

-This is more of a bet against Dwiiiight than anything else. The Hawks are going to miss Horford. Millsap can only carry this team so far. I love Bazemore, but more he is more of a hustle guy, Worked well with spacers like Horford and Millsap who can do things on the outside, so he can crash the boards. Schreoder is a another player I like, but he can't shoot the ball. Can Korver find his stroke this season after a down year last year? They will be close to .500 in the east, but im betting they will be just that .500
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Howard could be a disaster, no doubt, but I think he'll enjoy coming "home" and trying to prove at least something to people around the league.  I think Coach Bud can get some good minutes out of him as long as he stays content not being fed the ball in the post much.  As for spacing, I would agree with you, except we were SO BAD at rebounding.  Millsap will be more free to roam on both ends of the court.  I think he'll have a great year if he stays healthy.  

I think we can consistently put enough shooters around Dwight - Millsap is a decent 3-pt shooter, obviously Kyle and Hardaway can shoot too.  Bazemore, Seph and Schroeder can all shoot them too.  I do completely agree on the PG situation.  They've placed a lot of faith in Dennis and I'm not 100% sold on the move just yet.  He's undersized and seems like he can lose focus from time to time.  If the PG spot can produce what he and Teague did then I feel good about the over.  I said in the FFA thread 45-48.  I'll split the difference and say 46.5 wins.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Memphis UNDER 43.5 - I think Memphis misses the playoffs. Gasol already has foot issues. They are moving Randolph to the bench because they are desperately thin. Parsons hasn't even played yet and will eventually miss a big portion of the season. They are trying a rookie coach. They want to play faster, but their roster isn't built for it outside of Conley.

OKC UNDER 45.5 - I know Westbrook will go crazy, but his workload is going to be insane. This team has desperately poor spacing with Adams, Kanter, and Roberson unable to spread, which will allow teams to clog the lane on Westbrook.  Heaven help them if Westbrook misses a chunk of time (he played 80 last season but 67 and 46 in the two before that). 

Charlotte OVER 40.5 - Jefferson walking isn't going to hurt them when they've got Frank the Tank, baby (and Hibbert)! East coast advantage here...Walker is good. Batum is good. MKG is good in his role. Cody Zeller is better than people think. 
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Memphis is 4-4 but have played 6 of 8 at home to start the year. 
OKC is 6-2 and making me look pretty bad so far, but I think they've beaten up on some bad teams.
Charlotte is 6-1 and gunning for the second seed in the East.

 
Timmay said:
OVER:

Charlotte Hornets



40.5

-They are going to build off their 48 win season last year. They bring back most of their team besides Big Al. MKG is back and healthy for now. Hibbert and Bellinelli are great additions, even though Hibbert is a shell of his shelf now, he is still the rim protector that the Hornets have needed for some years now. That is the best thing Hibbert can do. Bellinelli provides them with much needed outside shooting. The games won't be pretty, but more of a grind it out type of games. In the east there is not reason to believe this team wont be over .500 if they can stay healthy for the most part. 


UNDER:

Oklahoma City Thunder



45.5

-No Durant. Without Durant last year and when Westbrook was doing everything for this team, they didnt play well. Westbrook was their only scoring option. Added Oladipo, but he can't shoot. Teams are going to guard the paint and dare Westbrook, Oladipo, and RObertson to shoot from outside. Ibaka and Durant were the best shooters on the team and they are both gone. If Westbrook gets hurt at all this year, watch out this could get ugly. 

UNDER:


Atlanta Hawks


44

-This is more of a bet against Dwiiiight than anything else. The Hawks are going to miss Horford. Millsap can only carry this team so far. I love Bazemore, but more he is more of a hustle guy, Worked well with spacers like Horford and Millsap who can do things on the outside, so he can crash the boards. Schreoder is a another player I like, but he can't shoot the ball. Can Korver find his stroke this season after a down year last year? They will be close to .500 in the east, but im betting they will be just that .500
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Hornets are 6-3 so far. Played Cleveland tough yesterday @ Cleveland, On a 2 game skid, but I'm still liking the over on this. Kemba is carrying this team now that Big Al is gone. Can MKG stay healthy for once? 

Thunder are kind of surprising so far this year sitting at 6-4, after a hot start, they cooled down considerably. This is one Westbrook injury from a train wreck, still like the chances with the under. Westbrook is a freak, putting up stat lines out of video games. 

Hawks are 7-2, really surprising. Howard actually looks motivated. Schroeder and Bazemore both had slow starts, but are now hitting strides. Can Howard stay motivated?? Not looking great, but Howard can flip that switch at any moment. 

 
Cliff Clavin said:
Heat - U35

Uh, that team is pretty terrible. Seriously, they have 2 starters on their roster and their bench is awful. 

Dion.Waiters.

NYK - U40

Knicks :lmao:

Raptors - O50.5

Essentially the same team as the last couple years and playing in a craptastic division. Should coast to 53-54.
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:moneybag:

 
Kev4029 said:
Denver - 36.5 OVER

Minnesota - 41.5 UNDER

NYK - 40 UNDER

I'd also take the over on Toronto (I don't think last year was a fluke), Houston (They'll be fun even if they don't hit the over, Howard is a cancer), and LAC (Griffin is healthy and less punchy, they'll suck up some of the SAS and OKC). Take the under on Memphis (old, Parsons was a bad signing), Dallas (old, Barnes sucks), and Chicago (ignoring the 3 point line in 2016 seems like a poor idea).
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Nuggets are on pace for 37 wins and they are improving. Minnesota is on pace for 30 wins and getting worse. NY is on pace for 34 and it seems like they are about to go into fire sale mode.

Toronto is on pace for 50 wins (o/u was 50.5). Houston is pace for 57 wins (o/u 43.5), they are 6 wins away from hitting the over. Clippers are on pace for 49 wins (o/u 54), looks like I'm wrong here unless they go bonkers with Paul gets back and they go 24-6 from here on.

Memphis is on pace for 49 (o/u 43.5), probably missed this one, although I was right about Parsons being a bad signing. Dallas is on pace for 32 wins (o/u 39), so I'm looking good, but I was wrong about Barnes, he looks like a pretty decent piece for them. Chicago is on pace for 41 (o/u 38.5), but I still feel good about the under.

I'm amazed that Chicago has been able to play decent ball shooting as poorly as they have. They are the worst three point shooting team on a percentage basis in the NBA while shooting the fewest threes in the league. They are also the second worst two point shooting team in the NBA. Jimmy Butler is carrying a team that should be winning a quarter of its games and making them a playoff team.

 
scoobus said:
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - OVER

Pieces fit together horribly, but individually they're all pretty talented, and all pretty good defensively.  I see 41-41.

New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - UNDER

Besides Anthony Davis (who's always hurt) they seem like a complete dumpster fire.

Miami Heat 35 - OVER

Dion. Waiters.
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All seem possible at this point. Lol at Dion Waiters.

 
thecatch said:
Karl to Joerger is almost as big of an upgrade at the coaching spot that Mitchel to Thibs is in Minnesota. 
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I wonder if (a) Thibs and Joerger just aren't as good as was widely believed, (b) their rosters are full of players simply beyond redemption (more the case in Sac but arguably applicable to some of Minny's talent), or (c) some combo of both. 

 
Kev4029 said:
Denver - 36.5 OVER

This is a bit of a homer pick, but the Nuggets won 33 picks last year while blatantly tanking the last 10 or so games of the year.  They didn't really lose anybody or make any signings, but Wilson Chandler was out all last year and is healthy (for now), Jusuf Nurkic had a torn patella tendon that caused him to miss over half of last year and he wasn't right the 32 games he played, Jamal Murray looks like he will be a positive contributor, their young core (Nurkic, Jokic, Mudiay, Harris) is a year older, and their old core (Faried, Gallo, Chandler) are between 26 and 29 so are still in their peaks. There is also a good chance that if they start out well through the first two months of the season, they will look to make a trade to improve for this season with their assets.

Minnesota - 41.5 UNDER

Don't get me wrong, I'm on board for their arrival as a perennial playoff team, but not this year. A 13 win jump would be pretty impressive (for comparison, the Nuggets would have to make a 4 win jump) and I find it a bit unlikely with their biggest signing being Cole Aldrich. Really, I view Denver and Minnesota's young guys pretty similarly on the whole. KAT is the best of the bunch, but beyond KAT (which I understand is a huge "but") the Nugget's young core will prove to be better and deeper. Without much of a strong veteran base, the Wolves will need huge jumps by Lavine, Wiggins and Towns to jump to 42 wins. With a year of seasoning and a couple biggish moves next offseason I could see them making a jump to the high 40s or low 50s in wins in 17-18.

NYK - 40 UNDER

I've always been a bit of a Melo apologist, but he can't save this sinking ship. They are still trying to run some of the triangle with players that can't run it. Derrick Rose is toast as an NBA player and his backup Jennings probably is too. Noah is almost 32, coming off a injury plagued season that was preceded by and injury riddled disappointing season, and even if mostly healthy (he's played more than 67 games once in the last 7 years so even that is a stretch) he's not much better than Lopez who he is replacing. I actually like the Lee signing and PORZINGIS! should make strides this year, but I don't see 9 wins of improvement in the moves they made this offseason combined with Porzingis' improvement.

I'd also take the over on Toronto (I don't think last year was a fluke), Houston (They'll be fun even if they don't hit the over, Howard is a cancer), and LAC (Griffin is healthy and less punchy, they'll suck up some of the SAS and OKC). Take the under on Memphis (old, Parsons was a bad signing), Dallas (old, Barnes sucks), and Chicago (ignoring the 3 point line in 2016 seems like a poor idea).
Click to expand...
nice work

 
scoobus said:
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - OVER

Pieces fit together horribly, but individually they're all pretty talented, and all pretty good defensively.  I see 41-41.

New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - UNDER

Besides Anthony Davis (who's always hurt) they seem like a complete dumpster fire.

Miami Heat 35 - OVER

Dion. Waiters.
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Nice.  Not sure you'll get the Chicago one but it could be close if they end the season strong.  Rest are locks.

 
scoobus said:
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - OVER

Pieces fit together horribly, but individually they're all pretty talented, and all pretty good defensively.  I see 41-41.

New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - UNDER

Besides Anthony Davis (who's always hurt) they seem like a complete dumpster fire.

Miami Heat 35 - OVER

Dion. Waiters.
Click to expand...
:moneybag: :moneybag: :moneybag:

1. Good chance they'll finish exactly 41-41.

2. Trading for Cousins provided a scare, but outside of he and Davis (and maybe Jrue), pretty dumpster fire-y.

3. Record when Waiters plays: 28-19.

 
Chemical X said:
GSW - OVER 66.5

 Last year was too easy and they add Durant.  Way too much for the regular season on a nightly basis, I like 70 wins.

NOP - UNDER 36.5

Talentless besides brittle Anthony Davis and he doesn't seem nearly enough here.  Quick, name 5 guys here.  Under 36.5 games played by Davis this year too.

NYK - OVER 40

KP 1 year older, besides Rose, Jennings is major upgrade at PG.  Just think an influx of Lee, Rose, Noah and others, coupled with a bad division and conference brings them over .500.
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assume gsw wins its last home game to get to 67.............NOP was easy.

knicks had a chance early, but I was looking derrick rose colored glasses.

 
Just a recap of the actual results . . .

Atlanta Hawks 44 (UNDER 43 wins)
Boston Celtics 52.5 (OVER 53 wins)
Brooklyn Nets 21.5 (UNDER 20 wins)
Charlotte Hornets 40.5 (UNDER 36 wins)
Chicago Bulls 38.5 (OVER 41 wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 (UNDER 51 wins)
Dallas Mavericks 39 (UNDER 33 wins)
Denver Nuggets 36.5 (OVER 40 wins)
Detroit Pistons 46 (UNDER 37 wins)
Golden State Warriors 66.5 (OVER 67 wins)
Houston Rockets 43.5 (OVER 55 wins)
Indiana Pacers 45 (UNDER 42 wins)
Los Angeles Clippers 54 (UNDER 51 wins)
Los Angeles Lakers 25 (OVER 26 wins)
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 (UNDER 43 wins)
Miami Heat 35 (OVER 41 wins)
Milwaukee Bucks 36 (OVER 42 wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 (UNDER 31 wins)
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 (UNDER 34 wins)
New York Knicks 40 (UNDER 31 wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 (OVER 47 wins)
Orlando Magic 36.5 (UNDER 29 wins)
Philadelphia 76ers OFF THE BOARD (28 wins)
Phoenix Suns 28.5 (UNDER 24 wins)
Portland Trail Blazers 45.5 (UNDER 41 wins)
Sacramento Kings 32.5 (UNDER 32 wins)
San Antonio Spurs 57.5 (OVER 61 wins)
Toronto Raptors 50.5 (OVER 51 wins)
Utah Jazz 47.5 (OVER 51 wins)
Washington Wizards 42.5 (OVER 49 wins)

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just a recap of the actual results . . .

Atlanta Hawks 44 (UNDER 43 wins)
Boston Celtics 52.5 (OVER 53 wins)
Brooklyn Nets 21.5 (UNDER 20 wins)
Charlotte Hornets 40.5 (UNDER 36 wins)
Chicago Bulls 38.5 (OVER 41 wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 (UNDER 51 wins)
Dallas Mavericks 39 (UNDER 33 wins)
Denver Nuggets 36.5 (OVER 40 wins)
Detroit Pistons 46 (UNDER 37 wins)
Golden State Warriors 66.5 (OVER 67 wins)
Houston Rockets 43.5 (OVER 55 wins)
Indiana Pacers 45 (UNDER 42 wins)
Los Angeles Clippers 54 (UNDER 51 wins)
Los Angeles Lakers 25 (OVER 26 wins)
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 (UNDER 43 wins)
Miami Heat 35 (OVER 41 wins)
Milwaukee Bucks 36 (OVER 42 wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 (UNDER 31 wins)
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 (UNDER 34 wins)
New York Knicks 40 (UNDER 31 wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 (OVER 47 wins)
Orlando Magic 36.5 (UNDER 29 wins)
Philadelphia 76ers OFF THE BOARD (28 wins)
Phoenix Suns 28.5 (UNDER 24 wins)
Portland Trail Blazers 45.5 (UNDER 41 wins)
Sacramento Kings 32.5 (UNDER 32 wins)
San Antonio Spurs 57.5 (OVER 61 wins)
Toronto Raptors 50.5 (OVER 51 wins)
Utah Jazz 47.5 (OVER 51 wins)
Washington Wizards 42.5 (OVER 49 wins)
Click to expand...
the line for the Sixers was actually 27.5 before the Simmons injury, and was 23 later after they set it again. That 28th victory was a nice present from the Sixers organization to us fans for taking that over. It has hit 3 of the last 4 years, and I anticipate hitting it again if the line is around high 20's, low 30's.

and wow, I just looked at all of the results, quite a few of those lines were right on the money. I am surprised to see Celtics were set at 52.5 before the season, I would never have taken that over.

 
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