Dustin Hopkins: 2nd in K points, never ranked in Top 10 (1 Viewer)

Am I missing something here?

The guy has been consistently good since last year. Only kick he missed this year was in high winds in Baltimore. 2nd in points only to Viniateri.

Yet he's never ranked in the top 10, seemingly by anyone. And this week he plays in the dome against a bad Detroit defense.

Meanwhile, my kicker, Mason Crosby is consistently ranked in the Top 5, but his production while not terrible hasn't backed that up. Do people just go on name recognition, and in this case the fact that everyone assumes the Packers will be putting up lots of points?

Probably the most I've ever typed about a kicker, just strikes me as odd. Every other positional ranking in fantasy seems to rely heavily on 2016 production.

I think the general consensus even with the FF pros is that kickers don't matter. So they get lazy with rankings.

Picked him up after he had 19 FFP v Giants, dropping Catanzaro. He got me 11 over 2 weeks, 3 in a Week 5 loss. Dropped him for Sturgis, of course he got 11 while my NG had 8. Moving on to Bryant.

I have no idea how to pick a K.

They miss Herman and they should find a replacement.

BobbyLayne said:

I have no idea how to pick a K.

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I'm pretty sure every time I've ever dropped one kicker for another it's been the wrong decision. Which is the part of the reason I kind of want to just roll with Crosby, he's already had his bye.

It's certainly not scientific but I'll have 3 players going tonight, Howard, Jordy, and Crosby, and I hate having guys play on Thursday. They always seem to have a bad game and I get to sit and stew in it until Sunday.

This week's projections for one of my leagues has Kicker 5 - 14 separated by a grand total of one point.  These are all interchangeable with each other, and you shouldn't get hung up on whether or not a guy is ranked near the top or bottom of this list.

I don't like him this week, but my go to kicker has been Caleb Sturgis. He is 12/13 with a long of 53 and has 13 XP in 5 games. 

Every week I look at the 10-second primer, and every week there's about 5-6 kickers they tell me I should pick up over Justin Tucker. He's the #2 kicker in fantasy so far. I don't pay much attention to the kicker rankings.

tangfoot said:

This week's projections for one of my leagues has Kicker 5 - 14 separated by a grand total of one point.  These are all interchangeable with each other, and you shouldn't get hung up on whether or not a guy is ranked near the top or bottom of this list.

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I am usually more concerned with the match-up and venue. I prefer moderate defenses (ones that won't shut the other offense down, but also can hold opponent to FGs from time to time) and good weather/dome venues. 

Insein said:

I think the general consensus even with the FF pros is that kickers don't matter. So they get lazy with rankings.

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which I never understood.. The consistency factor is huge when you are getting 10-15 points a week from your kicker. I have viniateri in most of my leagues because I purposely targeted him because he was top 5 when Luck was there the year prior, and he has been extremely consistent for him, and even won me 3 of my teams match-ups two weeks ago with his 23 point performance.  

Reason I spend time on this each year, and that it matters to me is because kickers are out there on good offenses like Cataranzo for example who miss extra points, and easy field goals and I don't have time for that in a competitive league.  Viniateri makes almost everything and is clutch in real life, and has been clutch in fantasy.  

DeaLerZ said:

which I never understood.. The consistency factor is huge when you are getting 10-15 points a week from your kicker. I have viniateri in most of my leagues because I purposely targeted him because he was top 5 when Luck was there the year prior, and he has been extremely consistent for him, and even won me 3 of my teams match-ups two weeks ago with his 23 point performance.  

Reason I spend time on this each year, and that it matters to me is because kickers are out there on good offenses like Cataranzo for example who miss extra points, and easy field goals and I don't have time for that in a competitive league.  Viniateri makes almost everything and is clutch in real life, and has been clutch in fantasy.  

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I don't research (maybe an area to improve) pre-draft. I am consistently looking at who is scoring what and which teams are allowing more/less K points. Floor is most important to me so I avoid match-ups with high end defenses. I also try to avoid teams with really bad QB play. 

Never chase points, particularly last week's points, especially early in the season. I try not to even look at current points when evaluating kickers. When evaluating kickers I consider four main issues:

1)How good is the kicker? Does he make all of his field goals? Is he good from long range?

2)Is his offense expected to score a lot of points? More times in the red zone = more field goal opportunities. And the extra points help as well.

3)Is his team expected to win the game? A team playing from behind will not kick many field goals. A team with a lead will often play conservative late in the game.

4)What are the field conditions? A dome is best, but I won't start a kicker at all if the winds are too strong.

Hopkins does pretty well based on this criteria. He's made 40 out of 44 field goal attempts for his career, although he's a mixed bag from long range, having completed only 50% from long range(3 out of 6). The Lions/Redskins game is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the day, although the Lions are slight favorites. The game is in Detroit, so we have the dome we were looking for. I haven't looked at the other matchups, but I would think that if I were to give weekly kicker rankings Hopkins would fall within the top 6 or 7 this week. Unless you have Gostkowski or Vinatieri, who regularly meet most of this criteria, you are probably going to be better off going week to week. There is almost always a good one available.

BobbyLayne said:

I have no idea how to pick a K.

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They're the ones who have a foot at the end of their leg, and they usually have a Latin or European soccer type name and don't wear pads. 

Also, I've found if they bear a strong resemblance to the Great Gazoo, you definitely want to draft them, though there's a significant risk of injury while celebrating. 

HTH

DeaLerZ said:

which I never understood.. The consistency factor is huge when you are getting 10-15 points a week from your kicker. I have viniateri in most of my leagues because I purposely targeted him because he was top 5 when Luck was there the year prior, and he has been extremely consistent for him, and even won me 3 of my teams match-ups two weeks ago with his 23 point performance.  

Reason I spend time on this each year, and that it matters to me is because kickers are out there on good offenses like Cataranzo for example who miss extra points, and easy field goals and I don't have time for that in a competitive league.  Viniateri makes almost everything and is clutch in real life, and has been clutch in fantasy.  

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While this is correct, every year outside of the top 1-2 guys, there's huge fluctuation in the kicker rankings. I suspect this is because they're reliant on several factors: 

1. Offensive efficiency - the ideal kicker is on a high powered offense that struggles in the red zone.  That's pretty hard to predict. If you have a kicker for a team that has a high conversion rate, you might have a 4/4 on PAT day which sucks for FFB.  You want a team like last year's falcons who got to the RZ constantly then failed to convert (except, without all the soul crushing RZ interceptions) 

2. Defensive efficiency - Kickers also rely on their team's defense to keep games close. Kickers suffer in blowouts like bruising RBs suffer in blowouts. When you're down 4 scores in the 2nd half, teams go for it rather than take the 3. 

3. Coaching decisions - you didn't want PIT's kicker this year because they loooooove going for 2. Sometimes inexplicably so (e.g. 1st score of the game they get up 8-0 for no apparent reason). With Roethlisburger out ~4 weeks, I could see them taking the safe 1 point more often now, but I won't hold my breath. 

But the reason to not get too hung up on it is that while you're right and consistency matters, there's really no such thing as bullet-proof for a kicker. NEP got shutout at home. 0 points from the best kicker in FFB. No Godskowski owner was expecting to get a doughnut at any point this year, yet there it was. And from season to season, the difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker is like 20 points. At least it was when I looked at the stats a couple of years ago for a 5 year period. 

20 points over 16 games works out to 1.25 points a game. 

Think about that when someone in your league takes Godskowski or Vinetieri with a 10th round pick next year.  

By the way, a fun setting we use in the league I commission is the "MFG" - where if a K misses a FG that's under 30 yards or misses an XP, we award -1 points. Because that crappy kicker for missing a chip shot. 

I recommend you guys try this, just for one year and see how you like it:

Replace K with extra W/R/T

Most of my leagues have eliminated the kicker and everyone seems to be happy about it.

FF Ninja said:

I recommend you guys try this, just for one year and see how you like it:

Replace K with extra W/R/T

Most of my leagues have eliminated the kicker and everyone seems to be happy about it.

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I like kickers. They're a wildcard week to week. And they occasionally force more roster churn due to incompetence or BYE, which puts $ in the kitty. 

Adding an extra flex can be done regardless of whether or not you use a kicker. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

I like kickers. They're a wildcard week to week. And they occasionally force more roster churn due to incompetence or BYE, which puts $ in the kitty. 

Adding an extra flex can be done regardless of whether or not you use a kicker. 

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I agree they are a wildcard, but wildcard = luck, and luck favors the weak. Adding extra lineup spots favors depth and depth is found on good teams. And yes, you can add an extra flex without eliminating the K, but people get used to seeing weekly scoring a certain way, so proposing the idea as a kicker for flex switch helps sell the idea. I'm just throwing it out there, though. Nobody is obligated to that this advice obviously.

You guys still charge $ per move?! I haven't played in a league like that in over a decade. I'd rather just increase the buy in than nickel and dime active owners like that. But really, FF isn't about making money - unless the buy-in is four figures, the winnings are insignificant. The only real point of a buy-in is to keep people playing. Without $ on the line, a lot of people will quit early. But get the right group of competitive people together, and a free league can be just as fun as a $500 league.

FF Ninja said:

I agree they are a wildcard, but wildcard = luck, and luck favors the weak. Adding extra lineup spots favors depth and depth is found on good teams. And yes, you can add an extra flex without eliminating the K, but people get used to seeing weekly scoring a certain way, so proposing the idea as a kicker for flex switch helps sell the idea. I'm just throwing it out there, though. Nobody is obligated to that this advice obviously.

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My league has a myriad of personalities - and we play for fun. 

Luck is also part of that fun. 

You seem to think FFB is pure skill without any luck regardless of position? That's hilarious. 

If "luck favors the weak" then sign me up for weak, because I've played this stupid game for the better part of 2 decades and I'd rather be lucky than skillful any day. 

Sounds like you're one of those guys where every game you win it's because of skill and every game you lose was because the other team got lucky.  

You guys still charge $ per move?! I haven't played in a league like that in over a decade. I'd rather just increase the buy in than nickel and dime active owners like that. But really, FF isn't about making money - unless the buy-in is four figures, the winnings are insignificant. The only real point of a buy-in is to keep people playing. Without $ on the line, a lot of people will quit early. But get the right group of competitive people together, and a free league can be just as fun as a $500 league.

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Well thank you for passing that judgement on my leagues and how we choose to handle transactions and fees.  I guess we should have consulted with you first in the two leagues that have been running since the early 2000s. My bad. 

Also thank you for taking the time to explain to me the complex issue of "how to have fun playing fantasy football".  Why, that changes everything!  

Hot Sauce Guy said:

You seem to think FFB is pure skill without any luck regardless of position? That's hilarious. 

If "luck favors the weak" then sign me up for weak, because I've played this stupid game for the better part of 2 decades and I'd rather be lucky than skillful any day. 

Sounds like you're one of those guys where every game you win it's because of skill and every game you lose was because the other team got lucky.  

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No, not at all. This game is obviously part strategy, part luck. Both playing huge parts. All I'm saying is that settings can be put in place that increase or decrease both aspects. IMO, replacing a K with a flex increases the strategy part and reduces the luck. No need to get so snippy about it.

And I fully agree, in FF, the phrase "better lucky than good" could not be more fitting. But that doesn't mean I feel good about winning by 2 points when my kicker puts up 22 and the other guy's puts up 3 when they were both projected for 8. So no, I don't feel like it is all skill when I win and all luck when I lose, but eliminating the possibility of winning or losing due to a kicker has been well received in several different leagues I play in.

FF Ninja said:

No, not at all. This game is obviously part strategy, part luck. Both playing huge parts. All I'm saying is that settings can be put in place that increase or decrease both aspects. IMO, replacing a K with a flex increases the strategy part and reduces the luck. No need to get so snippy about it.

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Who's getting snippy? You just insulted my leagues for charging transaction fees. Seems pretty uncalled for to me. 

You're entitled to your opinions about using kickers or not, but there's zero need to put down my leagues like that. 

But that doesn't mean I feel good about winning by 2 points when my kicker puts up 22 and the other guy's puts up 3 when they were both projected for 8. So no, I don't feel like it is all skill when I win and all luck when I lose, but eliminating the possibility of winning or losing due to a kicker has been well received in several different leagues I play in.

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I'm happy for your leagues. We opt to do it differently.  

Each to their own. I don't judge your leagues for not charging fees or eliminating kickers, so kindly avoid passing judgement on mine. Thanks. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Who's getting snippy? You just insulted my leagues for charging transaction fees. Seems pretty uncalled for to me. 

You're entitled to your opinions about using kickers or not, but there's zero need to put down my leagues like that. 

I'm happy for your leagues. We opt to do it differently.  

Each to their own. I don't judge your leagues for not charging fees to eliminating kickers, so kindly avoid passing judgement on mine. Thanks. 

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You. I simply recommended something for everyone to try. There was no need to reply to it, but you did and sounded a bit defensive from the beginning.

Did I really insult your league? If so, I'm sorry. I was just shocked anyone still did this. I recall it being a thing over 10 years ago, but I never met anyone who actually liked it (and the commishes didn't like tracking it or trying to collect again at the end of the season) so it died off quickly. Thus, I was just shocked the practice still existed. Did not mean for my shock to come across as an insult.

FF Ninja said:

Did I really insult your league? If so, I'm sorry. I was just shocked anyone still did this.

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Perhaps you should re-read your post to see how condescending and judgemental it comes off as. Why even bother with the lecture about $ and having fun? That was all pretty well out of left field and had no bearing on the discussion. 

But it's not that big a deal, and no need to derail this topic any further.  Thanks for the apology. 

He's a perfect kicker and I have him on both my teams.  Good kicker, strong offense, moves the ball well b/w the 20's but tends to fail in the red zone several times a game.  Recipe for kicker greatness.  Don't even look at weekly rankings.  They have no clue which kicker will do what.  Total crapshoot.  

Insein said:

I think the general consensus even with the FF pros is that kickers don't matter. So they get lazy with everything

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Fixed.

SaintsInDome2006 said:

They miss Herman and they should find a replacement.

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I love how his name is still on drop down, I clicked it all excited week 1 and then remembered. :(  

FF Ninja said:

You. I simply recommended something for everyone to try. There was no need to reply to it, but you did and sounded a bit defensive from the beginning.

Did I really insult your league? If so, I'm sorry. I was just shocked anyone still did this. I recall it being a thing over 10 years ago, but I never met anyone who actually liked it (and the commishes didn't like tracking it or trying to collect again at the end of the season) so it died off quickly. Thus, I was just shocked the practice still existed. Did not mean for my shock to come across as an insult.

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We used to do it and stopped (probably about 6-7 years ago) - mostly because like you said it became a chore to collect the transaction money at season's end (our site actually tracked it though). What I did like about it is it was a way to track just how many moves some teams made versus others. One team would have $125 in transaction fees (at $5 a pop) and another would have $15.

Another downside to the fees beside the collection aspect is that teams that were out of the playoff chase would have no incentive to go into their pockets to make a move and their line-ups would suffer. We had to make a rule that the fee would be waived for teams officially eliminated - but as you know sometimes a 2-7 team isn't officially eliminated but for all intents and purposes is.

Dr. Octopus said:

We used to do it and stopped (probably about 6-7 years ago) - mostly because like you said it became a chore to collect the transaction money at season's end (our site actually tracked it though). What I did like about it is it was a way to track just how many moves some teams made versus others. One team would have $125 in transaction fees (at $5 a pop) and another would have $15.

Another downside to the fees beside the collection aspect is that teams that were out of the playoff chase would have no incentive to go into their pockets to make a move and their line-ups would suffer. We had to make a rule that the fee would be waived for teams officially eliminated - but as you know sometimes a 2-7 team isn't officially eliminated but for all intents and purposes is.

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Yeah, most site track it, but there were rules such as "no transactions before week 1 count" or "each WW/FA pickup costs $1 but a trade costs $2"... these things make it so it's harder to track than just looking at the site's little transaction column. Ultimately, it was decided that it was better to encourage activity than discourage it. Plus, as we got older, money started to take different values for different people, so $5/transaction could feel like a lot for some people while it was nothing to others, so we didn't want money negatively impacting people's management.

Skoo said:

I'm pretty sure every time I've ever dropped one kicker for another it's been the wrong decision. Which is the part of the reason I kind of want to just roll with Crosby, he's already had his bye.

It's certainly not scientific but I'll have 3 players going tonight, Howard, Jordy, and Crosby, and I hate having guys play on Thursday. They always seem to have a bad game and I get to sit and stew in it until Sunday.

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7  points tonight (we give negative points for missed/blocked PATs & FGAs.)

Guy in our league bid $3 to get Crosby after his bye.



Most everyone else gets them off the FA pile or puts in $1.

i agree, hate having a bad TNF. Lucked out tonight starting Montgomery & GB DT. Benched Jordan for Michael Thomas at 8:24.

Gottabesweet said:

I love how his name is still on drop down, I clicked it all excited week 1 and then remembered. :(  

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I know, but just as their attention to this last little corner of the FF world used to make me think they were all over every little thing now the fact that they leave his name in the rankings when he's not even on staff makes me wonder who is minding the store.