Fanduel Week 8 (1 Viewer)

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I have tinkered with see whats out there. As far as low cost WR3 options that may be viable in cash I keep landing on Michael Floyd at 5300.  John Brown dealing with sickle cell trait,  Jaron Brown has suspected ACL injury.  I know he has struggled this year,  but may have an opportunity here to get right vs Carolina,  or more opportunities for J.J. Nelson at 4500.  Each got 7 targets in that s#*t show of a game on prime time.   

I'm going to spend alot more of my effort on NBA than NFL this week.  Just looking at the slate not a whole lot is interesting.  I do think luck is way underpriced.

I am going to spend some time doing the analysis on WRs versus opposing defenses on specific sides though.  The results last week were surprisingly good.   

On first time through, I think some of the big questions/decisions this week are going to be:

-How much do you trust Fitzpatrick and/or Marshall? Everyone has shredded that CLE pass defense and both are relatively cheap. Saving some bucks at QB is one potential way to get up to Julio and I think that might be a popular move. 

-What's the GB offense going to look like? Both Cobb and Montgomery are cheap despite the big Thursday games in what should be a shootout in Atlanta. They seem like two of the more obvious pay down options on first glance, but will be curious to follow any news we can get about what the offense is going to look like and what's up at RB. 

-Who do you ride at RB with a bunch of strong options $7400-$8700? Ware vs. Indy, Miller vs. Detroit, Michael vs. NO, Murray vs. Jax. The matchups aren't quite as good for DJ and Zeke, but those two are just about matchup proof. Shouldn't be as chalky at RB this week with so many good options to choose from all in the same basic price range. 

-At TE, can you afford to get up to Jimmy Graham $6700? If not, do you go back to the well with Doyle at just $4900?

NixonMask said:

I'm going to spend alot more of my effort on NBA than NFL this week.  Just looking at the slate not a whole lot is interesting.  I do think luck is way underpriced.

I am going to spend some time doing the analysis on WRs versus opposing defenses on specific sides though.  The results last week were surprisingly good.   

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Did you post the stat last week about the disparity on yds/tds versus JAX left and right corners?  I threw Crabtree in a couple GPPs because of that and while I didn't cash in those (stacked Geno/B. Marsh in those), h/t to you sir.

Speaking of Geno... I stacked him w/ B. Marsh in one of my 4 cash lineups.  TANK job.

I most certainly will have some cash shares of Graham going back to NO. 

Dan Hindery said:

On first time through, I think some of the big questions/decisions this week are going to be:

-How much do you trust Fitzpatrick and/or Marshall? Everyone has shredded that CLE pass defense and both are relatively cheap. Saving some bucks at QB is one potential way to get up to Julio and I think that might be a popular move. 

-What's the GB offense going to look like? Both Cobb and Montgomery are cheap despite the big Thursday games in what should be a shootout in Atlanta. They seem like two of the more obvious pay down options on first glance, but will be curious to follow any news we can get about what the offense is going to look like and what's up at RB. 

-Who do you ride at RB with a bunch of strong options $7400-$8700? Ware vs. Indy, Miller vs. Detroit, Michael vs. NO, Murray vs. Jax. The matchups aren't quite as good for DJ and Zeke, but those two are just about matchup proof. Shouldn't be as chalky at RB this week with so many good options to choose from all in the same basic price range. 

-At TE, can you afford to get up to Jimmy Graham $6700? If not, do you go back to the well with Doyle at just $4900?

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Dan, 

I appreciate that you take the time to post in the threads.   Good to put a face with the name with your appearance on the Power Grid. Thank you. 

A Winston/Evans stack vs the Raiders looks appealing at first glance. 

finger11 said:

Did you post the stat last week about the disparity on yds/tds versus JAX left and right corners?  I threw Crabtree in a couple GPPs because of that and while I didn't cash in those (stacked Geno/B. Marsh in those), h/t to you sir.

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I did .  The same analysis also yielded Marquis Lee, Julius Thomas, the Dorial Green Beckham td, and Matt Forte.  The only misses were in the KC/NO game  Even calling DGB a wash since he didn't do much else was 4 good calls, 2 bad calls, and Dorial which can go either way.  Definitely promising, hopefully last week wasn't just dumb luck.

NixonMask said:

I did .  The same analysis also yielded Marquis Lee, Julius Thomas, the Dorial Green Beckham td, and Matt Forte.  The only misses were in the KC/NO game  Even calling DGB a wash since he didn't do much else was 4 good calls, 2 bad calls, and Dorial which can go either way.  Definitely promising, hopefully last week wasn't just dumb luck.

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I was interested in Lee until Hurns was active.  The coach said he wanted to get Julius more looks, but I still didn't play him. I was off Forte since Powell had been getting a good run recently, but I think this week Forte will be popular for good reason.  Can you repost your full analysis from last week?  I only remember reading about Crabtree.

I'll drop it in here when I get home.  Not sure how to do it on my phone.  It's on the first page of the FD thread last week.  I forgot I also had Edelman on there too, so that's another bad call on the scoreboard.  The Forte call was a carry ove from week 6

NixonMask said:

I'll drop it in here when I get home.  Not sure how to do it on my phone.  It's on the first page of the FD thread last week.  I forgot I also had Edelman on there too, so that's another bad call on the scoreboard.  The Forte call was a carry ove from week 6

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I'll go check it out.  Edelman will have regression soon.  I think he's leading in targets since Brady came back, but no TDs yet.  

Looks like I can cash my Geno lineup if DEN D gets 12-14 pts.  I think they're going to smash their ex QB in the face.

That was one of the reasons I liked him.  The left side of the Pit defense is where you attack and that's Edelman.  Gronks long almost 2nd TD was there too.  Instead he went out on like the two and Blount ran it in

NixonMask said:

So just looking at Detroits defense they have allowed 17 passing TDs this year.  10 have gone to receivers lining up on the right side.  7 within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and 3 from beyond 15 yards of the line.  Of the remaining 7 TDs they have given up this year 5 were within 15 yards of the line straight up the middle of the field and only 2 have been thrown to the left side of the field.

On Washington, DeSean Jackson runs 53% of his routes on the right side.  34% of his routes are within the 15 yard mark where Detroit has given up the majority of their TDs.  In contrast only 34% of his routes were run on the left side.

In the red zone DeSean hasnt received many looks.  Neither has Crowder.  Over the last 3 weeks DeSean has had 3 red zone targets.  Crowder has had 2.  Garcon has had 6.  4 of Garcons targets have come on the right side in the red zone.  All 10 of Detroits TDs given up on the right side have been in the red zone.

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NixonMask said:

An interesting note on Michael Crabtree.  Since joining the Raiders he has had 5 targets or less only 4 times.  Once was last week.  In each of the other 3 cases, in the following game, he saw exactly 11 targets.  The past two games were the fewest targets he has seen in back to back games, since joining the Raiders, with 11.  The next closest pair of games was 14 targets, which probably relevantly was also this season.  On 3 occasions last year he saw 15 targets in back to back games.  Definitely worth monitoring if his reduced targets are a trend going forward.

My personal feeling is Crabtree is the spot to attack for GPPs on the Raiders this week.  He also runs routes primarily on the right side of the field.  For reference, the passer rating to wide receivers against the Jaguars on passes to the left side of the field, which is where Amari Cooper runs the majority of his routes, is 85.2.  That is top 10 in the league.  The passer rating to wide receivers against the Jaguars on passes to the right side of the field is 135.9.  That is bottom 10 in the league.

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NixonMask said:

1. Most defenses allow the majority of their TD receptions to one side of the field.  For Oakland that is the left side of the field.  They have given up a total of 12 receiving TDs this year.  9 were thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, across the middle of the field or to the left side.  7 of 8 red zone TDs allowed were throw there.  Allan Robinson's target distribution is fairly equal across the field.  Allan Hurns primarily runs on the right and over the middle.  Marquis Lee is actually the receiver that produces the most on the left side.  Julius Thomas could be the biggest beneficiary though, 72% of his targets are on the left and over the middle within 15 yards of the line.
On the other side Jacksonville is weaker against the pass on the right side than they are on the left.  63% of Crabtrees targets are on the right and 49% of Coopers targets are on the left.  76% are on the left or over the middle.  The red zone TDs Jacksonville have allowed have been evenly distributed though.

2.  If you are going to have success against the Vikings pass defense then they are weakest on the left side and over the middle within 15 yards.  That is probably Dorial Green Beckham.  The right side is a wasteland and that is where 72% of Mathews targets have come from this year.

3.  All of the red zone passing TDs Pittsburgh have given up this year are on the left side or over the middle, within 15 yards.  Thats not James White, but since Brady returned 2 weeks ago that is where 76% of Edlemans targets have come from.

4.  All 6 of New Orleans red zone passing TDs have come on the left side or over the middle.  Maclin doesnt see many red zone targets, but the targets he does have are evenly distributed.  63% of Kelce's targets are on the left or over the middle though.  New Orleans is actually pretty good against the pass on the right side, and they inexplicably got better after Breaux went down with injury.  Both Maclin and Kelce have fairly even target distributions though.
Everyone lines up everywhere on New Orleans and KC is fairly even across the field on defense.  The one place KC does look a little vulnerable is over the middle beyond 15 yards.  That is probably Fleener.  I hate Fleener.

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Those were my three sets of analysis from last week.  The Forte analysis against the Ravens rush defense was mostly week 6.  Crabtree is a clear "win".  For Lee and Thomas the left and over the middle was where they did the majority of their damage.  Beckham is arguable, but I am actually more proud and optimistic about that call than any of the others.  On New England the two touchdowns were on the left hand side within 15 yards, like I thought would happen, and over the middle beyond 15 yards.  Gronk almost scored a second on the left side too.  I was wrong about Edelman being the main beneficiary, but he did have 9 receptions.  Thats hardly a call I feel like I can classify as a win though.  For the last one Fleener was a clear bad call.  He did have two nice receptions, but both were on the left side.  And for Kelce he actually only had success on the right side, so thats a clear bad call.

On the Detroit defense, the TD was given up on the right side.  I was wrong about the person who scored it, but the analysis on where Washington was going to find success was clearly correct.  In fact the only places Washington had any success last week as on the right side and over the middle within 15 yards.

You can grade it however you want, but it certainly looks to me like the time spent doing the analysis is worth the results its produced, atleast so far.  The only other "calls" I have had so far doing the same analysis was Bobby Rainey 2 weeks ago, which is a clear loss, and Adam Humphries 3 or 4 weeks ago when he went off for like 10 receptions.  I have no proof I ever made that call though.

Dan Hindery said:

On first time through, I think some of the big questions/decisions this week are going to be:

-How much do you trust Fitzpatrick and/or Marshall? Everyone has shredded that CLE pass defense and both are relatively cheap. Saving some bucks at QB is one potential way to get up to Julio and I think that might be a popular move. 

-What's the GB offense going to look like? Both Cobb and Montgomery are cheap despite the big Thursday games in what should be a shootout in Atlanta. They seem like two of the more obvious pay down options on first glance, but will be curious to follow any news we can get about what the offense is going to look like and what's up at RB. 

-Who do you ride at RB with a bunch of strong options $7400-$8700? Ware vs. Indy, Miller vs. Detroit, Michael vs. NO, Murray vs. Jax. The matchups aren't quite as good for DJ and Zeke, but those two are just about matchup proof. Shouldn't be as chalky at RB this week with so many good options to choose from all in the same basic price range. 

-At TE, can you afford to get up to Jimmy Graham $6700? If not, do you go back to the well with Doyle at just $4900?

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That game stood out on both sides of the ball.  Is McCown and Pryor going to be back?  I would be willing to take a look at them as well, maybe not for cash though because --

All the salaries are down.  I don't see how you get away from Wilson vs. NO at 8200 or Luck vs. KC at 7900, hell even Ryan at 8500.  I think there are enough savings elsewhere again, we don't need to go cheap at QB at all.  For example I put in a LU off the top of my head to lock in a couple cash contests for the week.  I have Ryan/TB rb/Elliot/Julio/Enunwa/Thomas/Rudolph/Lutz/Minn  with 600 left over.  No, it's not the roster I am going with, just an example that you can get solid guys everywhere with this pricing where it's at this week. 

Honestly, they are still a MASH unit at RB, so I think what we saw from the GB offense is what we are going to see going forward.  It is going to be even more on Rodgers going forward.  Montgomery is listed at RB now on FD, so I won't go there, but Adams and Cobb are both in the high 6000s at WR.  I would assume Trufant will be on Nelson, so we will see a similar game as we did Thursday night, with Cobb being the safer bet in cash game IMO.

Agree 100% here, and it is just like last week in that you have 4-5 no brainer options.  NO and Indy suck at rush D, so CMike and Ware have to be at the top of the list.  Oak isn't great in that department, so the TB Rb is in play again, unless they are splitting.  Miller at 7400 is also a great option at home.  They do allow a lot of yds/rush if I remember right.  Like you said DJ and Zeke have to be looked at every week.  I honestly don't think you have to look outside any of these guys for cash rbs this week.  Should be a list of 5-6, and I honestly might just go with a 2-3 lineups with Miller/Ware/Cmike and upgrade at WR, because...

WRs are cheap and just like last week, they have tasty matchups.  Atl and GB have been lit up through the air, so Cobb and Julio should be in there.  Evans vs Oak and cheaper than last week? yes, please.  Hilton vs. KC? sure.  Cooper and Crabtree vs. TB? Yep.  Cheap options: Enunwa vs. Clev, Pryor vs. NYJ,  Fuller vs. Det?  Haven't dug too deep here, but I think it's a lot of the same plays as last week, frankly. 

TE- I am going to try for Graham here like you said.  Gotta like Wilson and Graham's chances for lighting up the NO D.  Another option is Rudolph at 5100, but he is MNF.  Again, I made a place holder lineup on the fly with a Wilson/Graham stack:  Wilson/Miller/CMike/Evans/Crabtree/Thomas/Graham/Lutz/whatever D. 

Honestly, you probably could roll out an exact LU from last week into this week and hit big, it's odd that way.  Not sure the match, but a Luck/Rodgers/Ware/Julio/Evans/Cobb/Doyle base looks good this week as well. 

Does all this mean that it will be a similar week to last week and we see some astronomical cash lines again?  I am going to try to throw more LUs into the Thurs-Mon stuff this week.  Seems like they are always a bit lower, and I think for the most part the Thurs, Monday, and London games look like dog #### I want to fade besides a couple Minn plays.  Going to risk it and see if I can avoid what might be another week of high cash lines Sunday with seemingly obvious picks and only 10 games. 

NixonMask said:

That was one of the reasons I liked him.  The left side of the Pit defense is where you attack and that's Edelman.  Gronks long almost 2nd TD was there too.  Instead he went out on like the two and Blount ran it in

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I know you said last week it's there, but I still don't see the option to change it to TDs allowed in the RZ on that site (maybe I am in the wrong part altogether).  I see the success rate and target rate for the different sides and area, but not what yielded TDs. 

Goto the "Directional Performance Receiving Cone" section.  Both offense and defense has one.  In there, directly above the target map are options to choose individual teams, or multiple teams.  You can select a single player, or multiple players.  And in the field zone tab you can further narrow it down to a specific part of the field.

NixonMask said:

Goto the "Directional Performance Receiving Cone" section.  Both offense and defense has one.  In there, directly above the target map are options to choose individual teams, or multiple teams.  You can select a single player, or multiple players.  And in the field zone tab you can further narrow it down to a specific part of the field.

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Fantastic, thank you!  (yes, I was in the wrong part, was looking at the directional grid)

Thought Waldman's thoughts on the NE offense in the top 10 was interesting last week, and am curious how it plays out.  Basically:

Brady and Gronk are starts any week. 

Vs teams that play more zone = higher upside for White, Edelman, and Amendola

Vs teams that play more man - higher upside for Bennett, Hogan, and Blount. 

Edelman did a ton of looks yesterday, and Bennett was non-existent.  Blount did have a good day too, but is that a little bit of revenge factor as well?  I will be curious to see the use of Hogan and Bennett this week at Buff, who he list as more of man team. (also a 'revenge' game for Hogan?)

KarmaPolice said:

Thought Waldman's thoughts on the NE offense in the top 10 was interesting last week, and am curious how it plays out.  Basically:

Brady and Gronk are starts any week. 

Vs teams that play more zone = higher upside for White, Edelman, and Amendola

Vs teams that play more man - higher upside for Bennett, Hogan, and Blount. 

Edelman did a ton of looks yesterday, and Bennett was non-existent.  Blount did have a good day too, but is that a little bit of revenge factor as well?  I will be curious to see the use of Hogan and Bennett this week at Buff, who he list as more of man team. (also a 'revenge' game for Hogan?)

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I forgot about this, but a few years ago many people argued that you could predict whether it was a Gronk or Aaron Hernandez game depending on whether the D played man or zone. 

In a somewhat similar same vein, I have had some success this year playing small/quick receivers vs. the Raiders and fading the bigger guys. Both outside CBs for Oakland are 6'3 and are tough to throw jump balls against. They don't change directions real well. It's not a great matchup for Evans IMO, though if he keeps getting 15+ targets every week, it might not matter. 

What side of the field does Hilton line up primarily?    If he is matched up against Peters,  he is a nonstart for me.  Cooks and Crabtree were nonfactors when he was on them.  On the other side you have a rookie on the outside with Phillip Gaines out.   They like Gaines,  but he hasn't been good. 

Sorry if this is long, feel free to skip it.

Im going to try a full analysis of every game this week.  I am just going to post all of the information I am looking at as I am doing it.  If you arent interested just ignore the wall of text, this is the kind of post from other people that annoys the hell out of me so I get it.  There did seem to be some interest though, and I feel like I am making some mistakes in my analysis that I am hoping people can help me with.  If anyone sees anything I may want to look at differently or add please tell me.  For anyone who wants to follow the way to read this is as follows:  Each game will list the teams playing.  Next to each team will be that teams defensive rank against the pass on the left side and against the pass on the right side.  Next to the ranking, in parenthesis, will be the passer rating that team's defense allows to opposing QBs on that side of the field.  I am using Sharp's rankings to do this, his system weighs volume fairly heavily, as well as his own system for determining "successful plays".  That is the reason that the rankings do not always match the opposing QB rankings.

Following each game I will list any of the players from the opposing offense that stand out because they primarily see the majority of their targets against the strong side or weak side of the defense they are facing that week.  If an opposing defense is equally good, or bad, on a specific side of the field I will not write anything unless something in the redone stands out. 

At the bottom are the defenses I am looking to target with TEs and the defenses that are vulnerable against pass catching RBs.  All of the teams listed on the tight end list have an opposing success rate of atleast 60% and a QBR of atleast 100 allowed to opposing TEs.  All of the teams listed on the running back list have an opposing success rate of atleast 55% and a QBR of atleast 90.  I am dropping the success rate 5 points and the QBR 10 points to RBs because the average depth of target is almost always alot shorter.

1. Redskins [Left: 23 (104) / Right: 5 (81.7)] -Bengals [Left: 29 (121.2) / Right: 17 (97.5)]:
The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 14 passing TDs, 7 of which were on the right side of the field within 15 yards.  All 7 of those were in the red zone.  They have also allowed 2 red zone TDs on the left side of the field with 15 yards and 2 TDs over the middle within 15 yards.
On Washington Jamison Crowder has a fairly even target distribution, but over the last 3 weeks 62% (a 50/50 split)  of his targets have been on the right and over the middle within 15 yards.  In the red zone Crowder has 3 targets on the right side and 4 over the middle and only 3 in the four remaining zones combined.
DeSean Jackson has seen very few red zone targets, but has seen 51% of his targets on the right side.
Pierre Garcon has the most red zone targets on the team with 10, 6 of which came on the right side.
The Red Skins tight end see 40% of their targets on the right side of the field as opposed to 23% on the left, although Reed is used more on the left side than Davis.  In the red zone they have seen a combined 9 targets, 6 of which came on the right side.

The Washington Red Skins have allowed 7 passing TDs, 4 on the left side, 2 in the middle of the field, and one on the right.  In the red zone that distribution is 2/1/1.
AJ Green's target distribution is pretty even, but he does run slightly more on the right side than the left.  5 of his 8 red zone targets have been on the left side though.
Brandon LaFell's target distribution is fairly even, but he does run slightly more on the right than the left.  He does have 2 red zone TDs on the left side though.


2. Chiefs [Left: 18 (104.2) / Right: 7 (82)] -Colts [Left: 25 (95.3) / Right: 24 (97)]:
The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 11 passing TDs with an even distribution across the field, including in the red zone.
TY Hilton runs primarily on the 51% of his routes on the right side, but his red zone distribution is fairly even.
Jack Doyle runs almost exclusively on the right side, only 15% of his targets come on the left side.
Both Chester Allen and Phillip Dorsett have a fairly even target distribution.

Indianapolis is the 16th rated team against opposing pass catching RBs on the right side (36/86.9), but the 30th rated on the left side (63/123.2)


3. Raiders [Left: 10 (100.7) / Right: 13 (88.7)] -Buccaneers [Left: 15 (88.7) / Right: 5 (81.7)]:
The Tampa Bay Bucaneers have allowed 10 passing TDs this year, 4 of which came over the middle with 15 yards and 3 of which came on the left beyond 15 yards.  In the red zone 1 came on the left beyond 15 yards, 3 over the middle with 15 yards, and 2 on the right within 15 yards.

Oakland was the big success last week identifying Crabtree over Cooper.  Last week the Jaguars were vulnerable on the right and strong on the left.  This week its flipped.  All the analysis from last week holds true. 

65% of Crabtrees targets have come on the right side and 5 of his 6 TDs have come on the right side
46% of Amari's targets have come on the left side as opposed to 30% on the right.
Jalen Richard has 18 targets this year, slightly more on the left, but it is fairly evenly distributed. 
DeAndre Washington has seen 15 targets this year, 40% have been on the right side.


4. Seahawks [Left: 16 (98.7) / Right: 1 (64.3)] -Saints [Left: 24 (121.9) / Right: 8 (70.3)]:
The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 4 passing TDs this year, all on the left side.
Brandon Cooks runs 50% of his routes on the left side and 38% on the right.  I will add, and this is not from this analysis, Cooks does really good against mediocre and bad corners.  If he's facing Sherman I dont like his chances.
Micheal Thomas runs 57% of his routes on the left side and 31% on the right side.
Willie Snead and Colby Fleener have fairly evenly distributed target locations

The New Orleans Saints have allowed 9 passing TDs this year, 6 of which came on the left side and 3 over the middle.  0 have come on the right side.
Doug Baldwin has an equal target distribution.
Jermaine Kearse sees 52% of his targets on the left side as opposed to only 17% on the right.
Jimmy Graham sees 42% of his targets on the left side as opposed to only 13% on the right side
45% of Tyler Locketts targets are on the right side as opposed to only 30% on the left.


5). Lions [Left: 19 (100.6) / Right: 31 (124.9)] -Texans [Left: 2 (75.6) / Right: 10 (91.5)]:
The Houston Texans have allowed 4 passing TDs this year, 2 on the right side and 2 over the middle.  In the red zone, the Houston passing defense has an opposing QBR of 92 on the right side and a combined 40 on the left and over the middle within 15 yards.
Marvin Jones sees 63% of his targets on the left side in the red zone. He has a fairly even distribution elsewhere on the field.
Golden Tate has not had many red zone targets, but 60% have come on the left side.
Anquan Boldin has a fairly even target distribution.
Both Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin have fairly even target distributions elsewhere on the field.

The Detroit Lions have allowed 18 passing TDs this year.  11 have come on the right side, 5 over the middle, and 2 on the left side.  The only non-red zone TD came on the left side beyond 15 yards.
CJ Fiedorowicz sees 46% of his targets on the right side as opposed to 17% on the left side.
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have a fairly even target distribution, except in the red zone.  60% of Will Fuller's red zone targets have come on the right side while 83% of DeAndre Hopkins red zone targets have come on the left side.
 

6). Jets [Left: 22 (91.9) / Right: 32 (124.7)] -Browns [Left: 30 (131.4) / Right: 23 (100.1)]:
The Jets have allowed 13 passing TDs this year, 6 have been on the right side, 5 have been over the middle, and 2 have been on the left side.
69% of Ricardo Louis's targets have been on the right side.
Tyrell Pryor is very good on the right side under 15 yards.  He results in a QBR of 120, has seen 37% of his targets there, and caught all 3 of his TDs there.
Gary Barnidge has an even distribution map.

The Browns are terrible everywhere.


7). Patriots [Left: 26 (94) / Right: 27 (86)] -Bills [Left: 3 (59.6) / Right: 21 (83.8)]:
New England has allowed 9 passing TDs this year.  6 have been on the left side and only one on the right side.  The are very good deep, except over the middle.
Justin Hunter has only seen 8 targets this year, but 72% of them are on the left side.
Everyone else has either a fairly equal target distribution, or have seen too few targets for the map to be relevant.

The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4 receiving TDs this year.  2 on the right beyond 15 yards and 2 over the middle.  The Buffalo defense is most vulernable on the right and over the middle beyond 15 yards.  That is where they have allowed 3 out of 4 TDs.  They are very good on the left side beyond 15 yards.
Rob Gronkowski sees 48% of his targets on the right side as opposed to the left.
Chris Hogan runs more deep routes than the average receiver, but 6 of his 9 targets have been on the left side.


8). Cardinals [Left: 11 (88.3) / Right: 4 (71.3)] -Panthers [Left: 27 (114.5) / Right: 9 (73.9)]:
Carolina has allowed 13 passing TDs this year.  7 of which have come on the left side and 3 of which have come on the right side.  There is a fairly even distribution in the red zone.
Jaron Brown sees 51% of his targets on the right side and only 35% on the left. 
Both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald run about 5% more on the right than the left, but both see a fairly even target distribution.

Greg Olson runs 49% of his routes on the right side as opposed to 32% on the left side.
Kelvin Benjamin sees 47% of his targets on the left side as opposed to 29% on the right side.


9). Chargers [Left: 17 (78.7) / Right: 25 (93.9)] -Broncos [Left: 4 (88.4) / Right: 2 (47)]:
Nothing of note.  San Diego is fairly mediocre everywhere and Denver is awesome everywhere.


10). Green Bay [Left: 1 (83.2) / Right: 15 (114.5)] - Falcons [Left: 31 (119.2)/ Right: 30 (90.2)]:
The Green Bay defense has allowed 10 passing TDs this year.  8 have come on the right side, 4 within 15 yards and 4 beyond.  They have not allowed a passing TD on the left side this season.
Julio Jones target distribution is fairly even, but he has a far greater success rate and QBR on the right side than the left.
Mohammed Sanu runs 63% of his routes in the red zone on the left side as opposed to 25% on the right side.

Ty Montgomery sees 48% of his targets on the right side, 16% over the middle, and 36% on the right side.


11). Eagles [Left: 6 (80.8) / Right: 11 (75.8)] -Cowboys [Left: 14 (106.8) / Right: 16 (99.4)]:
Nothing of note
 

12). Vikings [Left: 8 (62.6) / Right: 3 (49.1)] -Bears [Left: 21 (83.4) / Right: 26 (98)]:
The Chicago Bears have allowed 10 passing TDs this year.  4 have come on the right side, 4 over the middle and 2 on the left side.
Stefon Diggs sees 51% of his targets on the right side as opposed to 20% on the left side.
Cordarelle Patterson sees 71% of his targets on the right side as opposed to 24% on the left side.
 

Opposing defenses to target tight ends with:
Buffalo (63% - 104.9)
Kansas City (71% - 125)
New Orleans (65% - 99.9)
Cincinnati (62% - 127.2)
New England (68% - 104.4)
San Diego (64% - 109.8)
Indianapolis (70% - 132)
Dallas (72% - 128.7)
Detroit (60% - 131.6)
Cleveland (62% - 145.6)
 

Opposing teams to target pass catching backs with:
Tampa Bay (61% - 118)
Atlanta (63% - 105.9)

and since theres only 2 there I'll add two more that have rates of 54%:
Indianapolis (54% - 118)
New England (54% - 90.1)
 

Guys the target maps like:  AJ Green, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Jermaine Kearse, CJ Fiedorowicz, Will Fuller, Tyrell Pryor, Ricardo Louis, Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, Ty Montgomery, Cordarelle Patterson, Stefon Diggs

Guys the target maps dont like:  Michael Crabtree, Chris Hogan, Marvin Sanu

DukeBroadway said:

I have tinkered with see whats out there. As far as low cost WR3 options that may be viable in cash I keep landing on Michael Floyd at 5300.  John Brown dealing with sickle cell trait,  Jaron Brown has suspected ACL injury.  I know he has struggled this year,  but may have an opportunity here to get right vs Carolina,  or more opportunities for J.J. Nelson at 4500.  Each got 7 targets in that s#*t show of a game on prime time.   

Click to expand...

Floyd is nursing an injury too, but if he plays the price seems right.

Been crazy busy lately. Piddled the last 2 weeks, but not much action. 

Funny (to me anyway):. I've run $2123.00 through so far this NFL season. I'm +$1.00. 

Well you are up at least. 

Can any of the big time players or mods give some insight on when it's time to get a tax guy/start submitting your dfs work as a job and being able to make writeoffs? I've been fairly profitable the last four years and this year have had my best start yet. 

DukeBroadway said:

What side of the field does Hilton line up primarily?    If he is matched up against Peters,  he is a nonstart for me.  Cooks and Crabtree were nonfactors when he was on them.  On the other side you have a rookie on the outside with Phillip Gaines out.   They like Gaines,  but he hasn't been good. 

Click to expand...

I don't have the exact figures but Hilton lines up in a lot of different spots. Moncreif is also supposed to practice tomorrow so keep an eye out there. 

finger11 said:

Can any of the big time players or mods give some insight on when it's time to get a tax guy/start submitting your dfs work as a job and being able to make writeoffs? I've been fairly profitable the last four years and this year have had my best start yet. 

Click to expand...

I'm none of the guys in your post, but I think there's a basic analysis you should do to see if it's worth the hassle. If it's hobby income, you don't pay "self-employment tax" (social security and Medicare) on it, but you can't take deductions. If it's business income you can take deductions but must pay the SET. You can also use business losses to offset income and roll those losses forward and back if they exceed your other income in that year. If you're making money, I'm guessing it's better to avoid the SET. 

Looks like the Jags 1 tech DT Roy Miller is gone for the season, this makes the Jag run defense very suspect has they have no one who can fill that role with any kind of size or power.  Tenn may rush for 200 yards Thursday night.

Megla said:

Looks like the Jags 1 tech DT Roy Miller is gone for the season, this makes the Jag run defense very suspect has they have no one who can fill that role with any kind of size or power.  Tenn may rush for 200 yards Thursday night.

Click to expand...

Is this going to make that big of a difference?  Honestly asking, don't know their D.  I just noticed today that they were middle of the road as far as yds/game, but were allowing less than 4 yds/carry on D.  

I am not local like Megla.   Last year they were stout against the run,  not so much vs pass.   This year for whatever reason the opposite even before the injury.   

DukeBroadway said:

I am not local like Megla.   Last year they were stout against the run,  not so much vs pass.   This year for whatever reason the opposite even before the injury.   

Click to expand...

I think their new toy at CB was a step in the right direction for sure. 

KarmaPolice said:

Is this going to make that big of a difference?  Honestly asking, don't know their D.  I just noticed today that they were middle of the road as far as yds/game, but were allowing less than 4 yds/carry on D.  

Click to expand...

It's going to make a huge difference, in the past when RM III was out this team has given up a ton on the ground.

I keep coming up with the same set of players in the main slate  

Looks like it's going to be hard not to play DJ/Freeman at RB in Cash

Looks like there is going to be a lot of Evans/Fitz/Cobb/TY at WR in Cash

Looks like there will be a los of B Bryant and NYJ in cash

Lots of viable options at QB this week, Luck/Rogers/Wilson/Winston/Carr/Brees for cash

I can see high cash lines again this week with the variance in LU being very small, little room for error

Megla said:

I keep coming up with the same set of players in the main slate  

Looks like it's going to be hard not to play DJ/Freeman at RB in Cash

Looks like there is going to be a lot of Evans/Fitz/Cobb/TY at WR in Cash

Looks like there will be a los of B Bryant and NYJ in cash

Lots of viable options at QB this week, Luck/Rogers/Wilson/Winston/Carr/Brees for cash

I can see high cash lines again this week with the variance in LU being very small, little room for error

Click to expand...

For sure, so I think I am going to try more Thurs-Mon cash slates this week and see if the it's similar to the last few weeks and the cash lines are lower.  Add maybe a bit more variety with D.Murray, Tenn D, Minn D, AJ Green in play. 

Megla said:

It's going to make a huge difference, in the past when RM III was out this team has given up a ton on the ground.

Click to expand...

KarmaPolice said:

For sure, so I think I am going to try more Thurs-Mon cash slates this week and see if the it's similar to the last few weeks and the cash lines are lower.  Add maybe a bit more variety with D.Murray, Tenn D, Minn D, AJ Green in play. 

Click to expand...

The problem with this Thursday slate is DeMarco.  He's probably going to be about 40-50% owned.  If you fade him and he goes off the cash lines are going to be alot higher than Sunday only.  And if you don't fade and he bombs the cut lines are alot lower, but you're at a disadvantage to almost half the field.

NixonMask said:

The problem with this Thursday slate is DeMarco.  He's probably going to be about 40-50% owned.  If you fade him and he goes off the cash lines are going to be alot higher than Sunday only.  And if you don't fade and he bombs the cut lines are alot lower, but you're at a disadvantage to almost half the field.

Click to expand...

For sure.  Everything's a risk here. Just figure it's worth a shot since the Sunday slates are looking like last week where there is only a handful of players that people seem to be on. 

Just saw a blurb on Rotoworld that CJ Anderson missed practice and is seeking 2nd opinion on his knee?  If he is out, I assume Booker is this week's Rodgers?

Yeah, if CJ is out Booker is unfadable IMO

First look at my $25.00 GPP LUs

Looking for a pay day

Winston/DJ/Freeman/Baldwin/Evans/Humphries/Olsen/MBryant/NYJ

Just looking to double up

Rogers/DJ/Freeman/Evans/Fitz/Cobb/CJ Fied/Santos/Houst

@NixonMask

i asked you this last week but you didnt respond.  probably missed it in the jumbled mess that was last weeks thread.  i understand using the qbr stats but whats the fascination with "successful plays"?  this seems like a pretty useless metric, where the advanced stats would seem to be more applicable imo.  using the example i gave last week a 3 yd play on 2nd and 6 would be considered successful by definition.  not sure that calculating a bunch of those plays helps us understand things very much.

Its a reliable measure of a teams ability to complete long successful drives.  The more a team is looking at 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 3, instead of 2nd and 8 or 3rd and 13 the more likely they are to complete a first down.  They complete the first down they keep the ball.  And if they keep the ball they get more plays.  More plays = more fantasy points.

 

MikeGarafolo: Broncos RB C.J. Anderson expected!out at least a few weeks with a knee injury, source says. Second opinion today to see if it'll be longer. [SIZE=.8em](1 minute ago [/SIZE]from Twitter for iPhone)

welp... Booker in 100% of lineups.

This will allow you to pay up for Julio or pivot off Doyle (with Moncrief back).  Kelce should smash this week.

finger11 said:

MikeGarafolo: Broncos RB C.J. Anderson expected!out at least a few weeks with a knee injury, source says. Second opinion today to see if it'll be longer. [SIZE=.8em](1 minute ago [/SIZE]from Twitter for iPhone)

welp... Booker in 100% of lineups.

This will allow you to pay up for Julio or pivot off Doyle (with Moncrief back).  Kelce should smash this week.

Click to expand...

Back to the drawing board then.  I think he is 5600 like Rodgers last week, right?

I have thought that a couple times this year already.  For me, this news just allows me to get Graham or even Gronk in more lineups. 

Kelce should smash every week but rarely does-same for his teammate Maclin. Its doyle and graham for me this week

How will Doyle be effected if Indy gets more weapons like Moncrief back? 

I like CJ F for a gpp play this week. 

First attempt for a cash like entry:

Luck  DJ/Booker  JJ/Evans/Cobb   Barnidge   Santos  Houston

Raging weasel said:

Kelce should smash every week but rarely does-same for his teammate Maclin. Its doyle and graham for me this week

Click to expand...

Indy is awful vs TEs

Megla said:

I keep coming up with the same set of players in the main slate  

Looks like it's going to be hard not to play DJ/Freeman at RB in Cash

Looks like there is going to be a lot of Evans/Fitz/Cobb/TY at WR in Cash

Looks like there will be a los of B Bryant and NYJ in cash

Lots of viable options at QB this week, Luck/Rogers/Wilson/Winston/Carr/Brees for cash

I can see high cash lines again this week with the variance in LU being very small, little room for error

Click to expand...

Hmmm...I think there are some viable options here at various price points.  Elliot is pretty much match up proof like DJ.  He is in play for those who want to spend.  A little cheaper... I think Michael vs NO and Ware vs IND are worthy of consideration.  Rodgers at $6600 is still in play vs. Oak...volume alone should make him a safe ROI.  Obviously Booker is now in the mix as a cheap option with CJ down for the count.  Even Ty Montgomery is intriguing at $6400 with his dual run/catch role vs ATL...maybe not so much cash game on this though.   I am leaning towards dividing my shares among Freemen, Rodgers, and Booker and laying off the higher priced RBs.

Also, I would probably keep M. Ryan in that pool of possible QBs for cash as well.  My initial LU had Winston, but like you I also like Evans.  Not sure I want to stack these for my cash, although it wouldn't be terrible, so I tentatively moved moved to Ryan, but Luck's price is looking more attractive.

NixonMask said:

Its a reliable measure of a teams ability to complete long successful drives.  The more a team is looking at 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 3, instead of 2nd and 8 or 3rd and 13 the more likely they are to complete a first down.  They complete the first down they keep the ball.  And if they keep the ball they get more plays.  More plays = more fantasy points.

 

Click to expand...

lol well yeah i understand that part...

im just not sure how it affects the individual player in question.  lets use an example from your post on the previous page.  according to your stats kc is a defense you can attack with the te.  but the advanced stats put them right in the middle of the pack at an adjusted 4-38 allowed per game.  and the raw stats have them as top 5ish at 3-35.  so if teams are actually extending drives by throwing to the te vs kc it certainly isnt showing up anywhere.