Opposing defenses to target tight ends with: Rank PPG Game
Buffalo (63% - 104.9) R.Gronkowski 1 14.5 NE @ BUF (23)
Kansas City (71% - 125) J.Doyle 2 11.6 IND vs KC (18)
New Orleans (65% - 99.9) J.Graham 6 13.13 SEA @ NO (26)
Cincinnati (62% - 127.2) V.Davis 7 7.72 WAS @ CIN (28)
New England (68% - 104.4) C.Clay 21 7.26 BUF vs NE (24)
San Diego (64% - 109.8) #N/A #N/A #N/A DEN vs SD (22)
Indianapolis (70% - 132) T.Kelce 9 11.1 KC @ IND (32)
Dallas (72% - 128.7) Z.Ertz 27 6.03 PHI @ DAL (31)
Detroit (60% - 131.6) C.J.Fiedorowicz 16 8.09 HOU vs DET (27)
Cleveland (62% - 145.6) #N/A #N/A #N/A NYJ @ CLE (30)
Opposing teams to target pass catching backs with: Rank PPG Game
Tampa Bay (61% - 118) J.Richard 22 7.06 OAK @ TB (30)
Atlanta (63% - 105.9) T.Montgomery 14 7 GB @ ATL (28)
and since theres only 2 there I will add two more that have rates of 54%:
Indianapolis (54% - 118) S.Ware 2 18.95 KC @ IND (32)
New England (54% - 90.1) L.McCoy 21 20.21 BUF vs NE (15)
Guys the target maps like:
Player Rank PPG Game
AJ Green A.J.Green 3 22.07 CIN vs WAS (22)
Amari Cooper A.Cooper 33 17.2 OAK @ TB (11) OAK @ TB (25 vs WR2 and 26 vs WRN)
Michael Thomas M.Thomas 9 16.78 NO vs SEA (5) NO vs SEA (21 vs WR2)
Brandin Cooks B.Cooks 29 18.75 NO vs SEA (5)
Jermaine Kearse J.Kearse 48 6.13 SEA @ NO (29 vs WR2 and 27 vs WRN)
CJ Fiedorowicz C.J.Fiedorowicz 16 8.09 HOU vs DET (27)
Will Fuller W.Fuller 55 13.82 HOU vs DET (17 vs WR2 and 32 vs WRN)
Tyrell Pryor T.Pryor 46 15.55 CLE vs NYJ (14)
Ricardo Louis N/A
Rob Gronkowski R.Gronkowski 1 14.5 NE @ BUF (23)
Julio Jones J.Jones 2 22.71 ATL vs GB (26)
Ty Montgomery T.Montgomery 14 7 GB @ ATL (28)
Cordarelle Patterson N/A
Stefon Diggs S.Diggs 10 15.56 MIN @ CHI (20)
I use
footballoutsiders to cross reference DVOA rankings for defenses and individual player which helps me home in on players I will consider playing. I used the awesome post by Nixon Mask for targets by left/right side of the field and added my DVOA information as an additional filter for his work -- I figured WTH, lets see what it looks like -- hopefully the formatting looks good.
Here's the formatting for the information I added:
R.Gronkowski 1 14.5 NE @ BUF (23) Player name is obvious, "1" is the DVOA rank of the player at that position, "14.5" is the average PPG (DK as I mostly play there), "NE at BUF (23)" where the game is played and in this case BUF ranks 23 in DVOA vs TE position. I mostly play GPPs and mostly at DK so the PPG if for that site, but should be good enough to get a relative feel for players at the same position even for FD lineups.
So with all that, here is my analysis (starting with the TEs):
Gronk ticks all the boxes -- Bills give up a high percentage to TE position, NixonMask target data is favorable, DVOA number 1 TE playing a bottom 10 DVOA D, NE projected total is almost 27 points, and just because it's NE, I'll add this bit -- they lost to the Bills last time 16-0
DEN and NYJ don't have a TE with enough receptions to qualify for the DVOA ranking so they don't have a player available for that stat... we aren't playing a TE from those teams anyway.
Clay and Ertz - pass.
J. Doyle - seems to be better options with every other player on that list playing a DVOA bottom 10 defense, plus other weapons coming back might limit his usage.
J. Graham - looks good to me, going back to NO (DVOA 26 vs TE) and getting about 9 targets per game over last 4 weeks
V. Davis (or J. Reed) -- Davis getting limited targets (about 4 per week while Reed is out) so I won't use him alot, but will probably have him in a few GPP lineups.
T. Kelce - on paper the matchup looks awesome, but probably won't be used enough -- its Andy Reid after all
Fiedorowitz - good cheap option going against DET who gives up TD to TE like Halloween candy to trick-or-treaters. His snap percent and utilization has gone up over the last 4 weeks.
RBS:
J. Richard - pass; snaps/utilization down with Murray back
L. McCoy - pass this week; plays NE and he's not 100%
T. Montgomery - interesting option here... GB/ATL is the highest total game of the week, GB will have to pass a lot to keep up with ATL, Montgomery played the 3rd down back roll last week successfully -- he'll certainly be in some of my GPP Lineups
S. Ware - stud in a dream matchup, yes please
Guys from Target Map in no particular order:
Gronk, AJ. Green, J. Jones all top 3 DVOA at their position playing a bottom 10 DVOA D for their position - Complete green light here
Already mentioned T. Montgomery - looks good
S.Diggs - WR 10 in DVOA, CHI ranks 20th - looks good (is he healthy yet?)
M.Thomas - WR 9 in DVOA, SEA is 5th vs WR1 but 26th vs WRN (any WR not WR1 or WR2). The way NO mixes and matches their players, I think he qualifies as a "good" option wheather his is technically WR3 or not.
A.Cooper - while TB ranks 11th against WR1, they are 25th against WR2 and 26 against WRN. Again, the way OAK seems to leans on either Cooper or Crabtree each week I think we should give this a tentative "good" choice.
Kearse and Fuller are interesting options because the teams they face rank really low against WR2 and WRN - another tentative "good" choice.
Guys the DVOA cross reference doesn't support:
Ricaro Luis and C. Patterson don't have enough receptions to qualify for DVOA (at least the data I pull) so no info on them.
B. Cooks -- SEA top 5 against WR1 (assuming Cooks is a WR1)
T. Pryor -- NYJ 14 DOVA against WR1
Summary of guys the DVOA cross references in a positive way:
R.Gronk
J.Graham
?.Fiedorowitz
V.Davis - tentative
T.Montgomery
S.Ware
AJ. Green
J. Jones
S. Diggs
M. Thomas
A. Cooper - tentative
J.Kearse - tentative
W.Fuller - tentative
