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Dynasty Value Check - QB (1 Viewer)

A

Atomic Punk

Footballguy
Im in trade talks with another owner in a 12 team dynasty league and we have been going back and forth on value in a few leagues and most recently on the trade value of QBs. In this particular league I am in the running and he is out of the running.  The QB we are currently debating is Matt Ryan but I think the same debate could be had for guys like Brady and Brees.

I tend to trade based on the philosophy of what an individual's value is if a dynasty draft occurred today and then adjust from there based on my probability or likelihood of winning the whole enchilada this season. Others have different philosophies.

I don't want to get into specific of our offers and counter offers but am interested in your perspective in generalities.  So what is Ryan's value in terms of either players (i.e. WR2, RB1, etc.) or picks (early 1st, late 2nd, etc.)?

 
IMHO, the number of QBs that are worth a random 1st are 3 or 4 (depending on if you still believe in ARod, and I do). So Cam, Luck and Wilson are the others.

My valuation is based on there are very few, young difference makers at the position. And my dynasty timeframe never goes further than 3 years out, so YMMV.

The position is fairly deep for a 12 team start 1 league. I actually prefer to have two good QBs for matchups and will double up sooner in drafts... plus you never know when a QB will hit a hot or cold streak.

As for what other QB1's may fetch in terms of players is completely subjective and situational. In a vacuum, maybe a low RB2 or a WR3... which is actually fairly high if you consider startup ADP at DLF... but existing leagues are different than startups for numerous reasons.

 
QBs are typically undervalued in startups (I can wait and get a QB later) and overvalued in trades (whadddoido if my other QB gets hurt). If you're asking someone to give up their current QB1, it's not likely to be for a pick or another position, but an upgrade/downgrade deal.

Ryan is an interesting take because he's hot right now, but he's coming off a bad season, so how much do you believe he is elite going forward given his best outcomes before this year were QB7. If you believe he is top 3-5 for most of the rest of his career especially with Brady/Brees sunsets coming then he is worth almost any single pick.

There's 3 bins here: elite, very good, and good. Elite is worth almost anything. Very good is worth something good. Good is not worth much of anything. Consider Deshaun Watson could be an early 2nd next year. The possibility he is very good is worth significantly more than a QB we know is only good.

Ryan and Stafford are staking their claim to be considered very good and reliably offer mid QB1 production. If that is their outlook, then they're worth a late 1st, up to mid. Not a pedigree pick (1st round RB, early 1st round WR) but a good prospect (2nd round RB, late 1st WR). If Ryan is bonafide very good, he's worth more than Deshaun Watson and should only be traded for a 1st, unless you feel like gambling.

 
DexterDew said:
IMHO, the number of QBs that are worth a random 1st are 3 or 4 (depending on if you still believe in ARod, and I do). So Cam, Luck and Wilson are the others.

My valuation is based on there are very few, young difference makers at the position. And my dynasty timeframe never goes further than 3 years out, so YMMV.

The position is fairly deep for a 12 team start 1 league. I actually prefer to have two good QBs for matchups and will double up sooner in drafts... plus you never know when a QB will hit a hot or cold streak.

As for what other QB1's may fetch in terms of players is completely subjective and situational. In a vacuum, maybe a low RB2 or a WR3... which is actually fairly high if you consider startup ADP at DLF... but existing leagues are different than startups for numerous reasons.
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This is where I'm at in value. My potential trading partner thinks Ryan's value is any TWO of a RB2, WR2 and TE1. Other than those same 4 QBs that you listed, I just don't see how anyone would pay that for a QB in a 12 team league regardless of how well he may be doing this year, which is an outlier for him compared to his career to date.

 
I must be in the minority because I continue to see this odd valuing of QBs in these 12 team leagues. Offers of two 3rds for Eli and Tannenhill and Ertz for Rivers are being countered with 1st round picks or young WRs like Sheppard or Thomas.

The offers I'm making are all to teams in last place and should be trying to rebuild so not only does it give them younger assets it also removes high scoring players from their teams to try and lock down earlier picks.

Am I that far off from conventional thinking?

 
thriftyrocker said:
QBs are typically undervalued in startups (I can wait and get a QB later) and overvalued in trades (whadddoido if my other QB gets hurt). If you're asking someone to give up their current QB1, it's not likely to be for a pick or another position, but an upgrade/downgrade deal.

Ryan is an interesting take because he's hot right now, but he's coming off a bad season, so how much do you believe he is elite going forward given his best outcomes before this year were QB7. If you believe he is top 3-5 for most of the rest of his career especially with Brady/Brees sunsets coming then he is worth almost any single pick.

There's 3 bins here: elite, very good, and good. Elite is worth almost anything. Very good is worth something good. Good is not worth much of anything. Consider Deshaun Watson could be an early 2nd next year. The possibility he is very good is worth significantly more than a QB we know is only good.

Ryan and Stafford are staking their claim to be considered very good and reliably offer mid QB1 production. If that is their outlook, then they're worth a late 1st, up to mid. Not a pedigree pick (1st round RB, early 1st round WR) but a good prospect (2nd round RB, late 1st WR). If Ryan is bonafide very good, he's worth more than Deshaun Watson and should only be traded for a 1st, unless you feel like gambling.
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This is where I get into trouble if I don't pause and reflect for a minute.  I'm in three 32 team leagues and one 16 team league, dynasty - startable QBs are almost always worth at least a low 1st in those leagues, the top QBs become extremely tough to get.  Watson should be a top 5 pick in the 32 teamers, a mid 1st in the 16.  But 12 team leagues are an entirely different animal.   I do agree that even in 12 team leagues, Matt Ryan right now is worth a late 1st - or RB2 type. 

Atomic Punk said:
I must be in the minority because I continue to see this odd valuing of QBs in these 12 team leagues. Offers of two 3rds for Eli and Tannenhill and Ertz for Rivers are being countered with 1st round picks or young WRs like Sheppard or Thomas.

The offers I'm making are all to teams in last place and should be trying to rebuild so not only does it give them younger assets it also removes high scoring players from their teams to try and lock down earlier picks.

Am I that far off from conventional thinking?
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in 12 team leagues that seems fair but the normal person isn't trading a player he likes, even if he's not all that good, for 3rd round picks. 

 
What would dynasty owners pay for Dak right now, given the Romo situation looming and the presence of Zeke and the power running game lowering Dak's ceiling?

 
Atomic Punk said:
I must be in the minority because I continue to see this odd valuing of QBs in these 12 team leagues. Offers of two 3rds for Eli and Tannenhill and Ertz for Rivers are being countered with 1st round picks or young WRs like Sheppard or Thomas.

The offers I'm making are all to teams in last place and should be trying to rebuild so not only does it give them younger assets it also removes high scoring players from their teams to try and lock down earlier picks.

Am I that far off from conventional thinking?
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No, they are.

 
Fly said:
How are we valuing older, elite QBs like Brady and Brees?
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I'm making a push in a 12 team dynasty and am planning on offering a pick that should land somewhere in the 2.03 - 2.06 range for either Brady or Brees to the owner that has both.  No idea if that's where their value lies but if he comes back wanting a 1st it will be a sure decline.

 
JFS171 said:
What would dynasty owners pay for Dak right now, given the Romo situation looming and the presence of Zeke and the power running game lowering Dak's ceiling?
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I own Dak behind Ben in a 10 team dynasty, so definitely hold and see. I never tend to roster more than 2 QB's save bye/injury. I keep churning until I hit at QB. Hopefully by the time Ben's career begins to wind down, Dak is approaching replacement value. If not, keep churning until I hit a combo that works.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm making a push in a 12 team dynasty and am planning on offering a pick that should land somewhere in the 2.03 - 2.06 range for either Brady or Brees to the owner that has both.  No idea if that's where their value lies but if he comes back wanting a 1st it will be a sure decline.
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This is my value as well. Tried to get Brees a few weeks ago for Pryor and was turned down. I thought I was over paying. In another league I gave Bortles, Henry and a late 2nd for Brady and Ingram, which I think was a good deal for both sids given our respective rankings.

i know everyone tries to squeeze every last ounce of value out of an asset. I just am so far off from where these guys are at, I'm starting to question my valuation.

 
My only experience is a couple weeks ago I offered Tannehill and a 2nd round pick for Brees to a last place rebuilding team.  It was rejected with no comments or counter offer.  I would like to get a QB upgrade as I have a good chance of winning the league but I'm not sure my first round pick would get me Brees in that league.

 
JFS171 said:
What would dynasty owners pay for Dak right now, given the Romo situation looming and the presence of Zeke and the power running game lowering Dak's ceiling?
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I had an owner counter wanting a RB1 or WR1 for him a couple weeks ago.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm making a push in a 12 team dynasty and am planning on offering a pick that should land somewhere in the 2.03 - 2.06 range for either Brady or Brees to the owner that has both.  No idea if that's where their value lies but if he comes back wanting a 1st it will be a sure decline.
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Hard to get a late 1st for Brady, even 2 years ago, but that pick should be right in that sweet spot where it could work. I would take it if I was for sure rebuilding. What's the chance Watson is there at 2.3? Decent.

I could definitely see "bad" teams holding onto these guys because there's no cliff we see. Brady talking about playing forever and no major injury since Bernard Pollard in 2008. If he plays 3 years, rebuilds shouldn't be that long term, and selling to playoff teams for 2nds should be possible until the bitter end.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm making a push in a 12 team dynasty and am planning on offering a pick that should land somewhere in the 2.03 - 2.06 range for either Brady or Brees to the owner that has both.  No idea if that's where their value lies but if he comes back wanting a 1st it will be a sure decline.
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14 team dynasty... both brady and Ben were each traded this year for 1st Round Picks in 2017

 
FUBAR said:
The other team might have thought pryor was a fluke, you might have better luck now.  But that would be overpaying imo.
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I guess I'm more of a risk taker and go for the potential in guys like Pryor especially when I have decent alternatives at QB if I'm moving one of the vets. I suppose the same can be said for RBs (Blount) or TEs (Gates or Witten) but I just see this phenomenon more often at QB.

 
Grimace59 said:
I had an owner counter wanting a RB1 or WR1 for him a couple weeks ago.
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Guy in my 16-teamer with 1 starting QB slot, no superflex or anything, was repeatedly demanding Ingram from me for Dak (despite the fact that he also has Ryan and Jameis and benches two quality QBs every week).  This was before Sunday where Payton revealed his true hatred of Ingram. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm making a push in a 12 team dynasty and am planning on offering a pick that should land somewhere in the 2.03 - 2.06 range for either Brady or Brees to the owner that has both.  No idea if that's where their value lies but if he comes back wanting a 1st it will be a sure decline.
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If that player is what puts you in position to win th league, I think I'd do the 1st.  Its the last 1st. It's a 2nd really.  

Overall, I'll play devil's advocate on this topic and say that I think a mistake in dynasty ff is the overall devaluation of the great QBs.  A great QB (Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton when he was around, etc) gives you the very unique position of locking in the highest scoring players on the rosters in most cases that also tend to be the most consistent, have relatively fewer injuries, and play the longest.  You might not think that's worth this player or that pick but when you look at it over the big picture, how many chances do you get to use ONE resource (one pick or player in a trade) and then lock the position down for a decade? it is rare.  And if it is an older player, even if you only expect 2-3 years, the one thing you know about players in that position is they are THE MAN on their team and you will know quickly when it changes.  No more holding a guy and waiting or worrying about benching or all that stuff. You know they are simply great...until the day they aren't. and that gives you the opportunity once again to make a quick and low resource-cost decision.  

The last league I played in, there was this guy that was, year after year, always, always at the top of the league and in contention and what he built that entire thing around was he trade for Tom Brady when Tom was 33 or 34 for not much and he drafted Larry fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.  Those three transactions freed him up for a decade to put all his other resources into everything and pretty much never worry one second about his starting QB and wrs.  

 
Fair points. I guess the question then becomes who makes that list. Two QBs I've been targeting are Ryan and Rivers and people are still treating them like Brady. 

 
Atomic Punk said:
Fair points. I guess the question then becomes who makes that list. Two QBs I've been targeting are Ryan and Rivers and people are still treating them like Brady. 
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Exactly -- what's the extent of that list?  And how quickly and aggressively do you chase guys on the younger end hoping they'LL reach that list?  Newton is basically untouchable in my leagues. Wilson is really expensive, even now. Mariota is expensive. Jameis as well. So when you have a chance to buy Dak, do you pay what it takes?

IF he's a top 5-10 QB for a decade, then yeah, you stole him. If he turns into Tannehill...

 
I've been trying to get a decent, younger QB all year in 12 team, PPR. Generally I'm one of the better teams in the league lately, although have seen Charles, Abdullah and CJA go on IR for me at RB. I have Brady, then basically nothing since Bridgewater went down. Even with him I was hoping for something. Was generally offering combinations of Crowell, Cobb, John Brown, 2nd and 3rd round picks. Trying for Winston from the Luck owner. Then tried Bortles, Carr or Stafford from the guy who owns all three. Nothing. Just not worth it for me to offer someone better (Asked about ARob, Hilton, CJA per-injury) or a first round pick.

So for me at least, QBs are more valued in my league, at least by a couple of owners, than I think it's worth to acquire. I'll probably hope to get the 3rd - 5th QB drafted for a 2nd or 3rd rounder next year. Also been grabbing some young lotto tickets like Brissett and Hundley.

 
Shutout said:
Overall, I'll play devil's advocate on this topic and say that I think a mistake in dynasty ff is the overall devaluation of the great QBs.  A great QB (Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton when he was around, etc) gives you the very unique position of locking in the highest scoring players on the rosters in most cases that also tend to be the most consistent, have relatively fewer injuries, and play the longest.  You might not think that's worth this player or that pick but when you look at it over the big picture, how many chances do you get to use ONE resource (one pick or player in a trade) and then lock the position down for a decade? it is rare.  And if it is an older player, even if you only expect 2-3 years, the one thing you know about players in that position is they are THE MAN on their team and you will know quickly when it changes.  No more holding a guy and waiting or worrying about benching or all that stuff. You know they are simply great...until the day they aren't. and that gives you the opportunity once again to make a quick and low resource-cost decision.
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To be fair in that league my pick is far from guaranteed to be late as I'm fighting to get into the playoffs.  

Beyond that sure, if we could trade a late 1st for a 28 year old Drew Brees I think that would be great.  But Drew Brees is about to turn 38 and truly elite 28 year old QBs aren't going that cheaply.  Aaron Rodgers is about to turn 33 and even in the midst of a down year you couldn't touch him for a late 1st.

As to the bolded part, I think I disagree when it comes to these older guys.  It's not like they send out a memo that says "stop starting me in FF now".  People didn't stop starting Peyton Manning after he threw for 4 TDs in week 12 of 2014 and was sitting as the #2 fantasy QB on the season.  They didn't know that it was the last time he would ever give any kind of consistently good play.  They started him the next week when he threw for 179 yards.  And then the next week when he threw for 173 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs.  And the next week when he threw for 230/1.  And probably on and off through the end of the year if by some miracle the survived the previous games in the playoffs.  Then 2015 started and people hoped that it was an injury last season and they started him again.  Then he was out for a while and came back and people tried again.  There was plenty of "holding and waiting and worrying about benching and all of that stuff".  And that's one thing that I think gets ignored when looking at these really old elite QBs.  At some point, whether now or next year or if you're lucky, the year after, they become a negative asset.  You're basically guaranteeing that you're going to take part in that weekly headache trying to figure out when a bad game was just a bad game and when it was a signal that they're done.

I also think it's bold to "expect" 2-3 years out of a guy like Brady.  That would put him at 42 playing well and I don't think anyone's ever done that before.  He's literally 4 weeks away from the age where Peyton Manning turned into a pumpkin.

 
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thriftyrocker said:
Hard to get a late 1st for Brady, even 2 years ago, but that pick should be right in that sweet spot where it could work. I would take it if I was for sure rebuilding. What's the chance Watson is there at 2.3? Decent.

I could definitely see "bad" teams holding onto these guys because there's no cliff we see. Brady talking about playing forever and no major injury since Bernard Pollard in 2008. If he plays 3 years, rebuilds shouldn't be that long term, and selling to playoff teams for 2nds should be possible until the bitter end.
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I've got a bad team who has countered my proposal of Monty and Rob Kelley for his Brady with My Cobb and Monty for Brady and Ravens and My Monty, Kelley and 2017 1 for Brady and the Ravens. He posts on message board that Brady is highest ppg QB in league and to stop with the lowball crap offers. Lmao.

I paid an early 2 for Brady and Gates  last week in a different league. I also saw someone just pay Mariota and a mid to late 2 for Brady (not my style).

 
jeaton6 said:
I've got a bad team who has countered my proposal of Monty and Rob Kelley for his Brady with My Cobb and Monty for Brady and Ravens and My Monty, Kelley and 2017 1 for Brady and the Ravens. He posts on message board that Brady is highest ppg QB in league and to stop with the lowball crap offers. Lmao.

I paid an early 2 for Brady and Gates  last week in a different league. I also saw someone just pay Mariota and a mid to late 2 for Brady (not my style).
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I must be out of it as I'm not following the offers/counters here.  Who is monty?  

Mariota and a 2nd for Brady is a significant overpay in dynasty.  Brady and the 2nd might get MM.  Your 2nd for Brady and Gates is robbery. 

 
I am in a 12 team startup dynasty. I got decimated by injuries very early and decided pretty quickly to play for next year. Start Q-R-WWW-T + 2 flex.

I have Brees and Mariota. I was just offered Doug Martin for Brees and turned it down immediately. I should be good next year, adding Martin does not overcome the current 8 ppg difference between Brees and Mariota. I'll take 1-3 years of Brees over an oft-injured good-not-great 28 yr old (in Jan) RB (and I am not even a fantasy football ageist).

Context: I have Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, C.Simms/Abdullah/Prosise/Yelson.... plus 3 2017 1sts (mine will be top 2).

If I had a longer rebuild window I would consider trading Brees (though for somebody younger than Martin), but I expect him to be a difference maker in 2017 as he is now.

 
Since you are talking dynasty, i think Brady, Brees, and to a lesser extent Rivers value does take a hit due to age. You are talking guys who are 40 or soon approaching that age. Where younger but still elite QBs like Ryan, Luck, and Newton should be valued significantly higher. So Pryor would be an overpay for Brady or Brees if you only get a season or two more of elite play from them, but you can get 5+ more years from Ryan, Luck, Newton, etc. 

 
CabinFever said:
Since you are talking dynasty, i think Brady, Brees, and to a lesser extent Rivers value does take a hit due to age. You are talking guys who are 40 or soon approaching that age. Where younger but still elite QBs like Ryan, Luck, and Newton should be valued significantly higher. So Pryor would be an overpay for Brady or Brees if you only get a season or two more of elite play from them, but you can get 5+ more years from Ryan, Luck, Newton, etc. 
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Agreed but in some leagues I'm in Pryor "isn't close" and I'd need to add a 1st and TE1 to get someone like Ryan.

apparently this isn't just a QB phenomenon. I offered D. Allen for Gates to cover Gronks bye in one league to an owner in last place. The guy countered with an offer of Gates for a 25 year old RB2. Sure Allen isn't a huge asset but he will be worth more than the nothing Gates will be worth in two months.

 
D. Allen for Gates should have been enough for sure. But I can understand wanting more than just Pryor for Ryan/Luck/Newton. Pryor has come out of nowhere this year and has looked good, but its helped that Gordon and Coleman have hardly seen the field. They have had absolutely no one else to throw to. Just wonder how much of his success is being in the perfect spot at the right time, and what happens when Coleman is back this weekend. 

 
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FUBAR said:
I must be out of it as I'm not following the offers/counters here.  Who is monty?  

Mariota and a 2nd for Brady is a significant overpay in dynasty.  Brady and the 2nd might get MM.  Your 2nd for Brady and Gates is robbery. 
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Yes I think you may be ?. Ty Montgomery?

 
Atomic Punk said:
Agreed but in some leagues I'm in Pryor "isn't close" and I'd need to add a 1st and TE1 to get someone like Ryan.

apparently this isn't just a QB phenomenon. I offered D. Allen for Gates to cover Gronks bye in one league to an owner in last place. The guy countered with an offer of Gates for a 25 year old RB2. Sure Allen isn't a huge asset but he will be worth more than the nothing Gates will be worth in two months.
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Pryor a 1st and a TE1 for Ryan? What am I missing here? That's nuts. Ryan has never put up high QB1 numbers before like this. He is bound to regress significantly next year. This really seems like an outlier this year. People really are viewing him in the Luck Tier now in dynasty? I dealt him for Rivers and Snead two weeks ago (league I didnt feel I could compete in this year due to weak WRs) and felt great about it then (still do now actually) 

 
BearsFan4Life said:
14 team dynasty... both brady and Ben were each traded this year for 1st Round Picks in 2017
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12 team dynasty. Brees and Brady would go for 1st round picks plus more.

I offered Paxton Lynch and a 1st for Stafford, turned down hard.

 
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Atomic Punk said:
Agreed but in some leagues I'm in Pryor "isn't close" and I'd need to add a 1st and TE1 to get someone like Ryan.

apparently this isn't just a QB phenomenon. I offered D. Allen for Gates to cover Gronks bye in one league to an owner in last place. The guy countered with an offer of Gates for a 25 year old RB2. Sure Allen isn't a huge asset but he will be worth more than the nothing Gates will be worth in two months.
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But really, how much value does Allen actually have even after Gates retires? On the surface, it seems fair but why should he help you? You have to make it worth his while to make the deal. Maybe add a late pick or swap later picks.

As for QB's, again, if I feel it doesn't help me, even with an even on paper price, what is my incentive? You want the player, make it worth my while to move him.

 
Rockchild said:
But really, how much value does Allen actually have even after Gates retires? On the surface, it seems fair but why should he help you? You have to make it worth his while to make the deal. Maybe add a late pick or swap later picks.

As for QB's, again, if I feel it doesn't help me, even with an even on paper price, what is my incentive? You want the player, make it worth my while to move him.
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It's always interesting to see different perspectives.  Imo, as a last place team, gates is almost worthless except in trade.  I'd shop him around and give him to the top bidder.  Allen isn't great but I'd guess he won't get much better unless you prefer a 3rd or something like that. 

 
ex-ghost said:
12 team dynasty. Brees and Brady would go for 1st round picks plus more.

I offered Paxton Lynch and a 1st for Stafford, turned down hard.
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Interesting.  I'm not seeing things that crazy. 37 and 39 yo QBs (amazing players or not) for future 2017 1sts? 

 
jeaton6 said:
Pryor a 1st and a TE1 for Ryan? What am I missing here? That's nuts. Ryan has never put up high QB1 numbers before like this. He is bound to regress significantly next year. This really seems like an outlier this year. People really are viewing him in the Luck Tier now in dynasty? I dealt him for Rivers and Snead two weeks ago (league I didnt feel I could compete in this year due to weak WRs) and felt great about it then (still do now actually) 




 
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I highly doubt Ryan is going to regress. This offense is setup to be good for a long time (most of the skill players are so young and will only get better). 

 
Shlon said:
I highly doubt Ryan is going to regress. This offense is setup to be good for a long time (most of the skill players are so young and will only get better). 
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Says the guy with the Falcons av. Julio should be there for Ryan's whole career, barring further injury. Sanu and Hooper are complimentary pieces.The two RB are great but Freeman's contract runs out next year. They are unlikely to pay both unless they get lucky (one gets hurt in a contract year?). Really it's hard to believe he is doing so much better than last year given how little changed, Sanu better than White, Coleman healthy and effective in the passing game. I think most is in Ryan's head or 2nd year with Kyle Shanahan, not the pieces around him. I would gladly pay Rivers and Snead for him but I don't view Snead too highly. Several Sneads. As many Sneads as it takes.

 
Shlon said:
I highly doubt Ryan is going to regress. This offense is setup to be good for a long time (most of the skill players are so young and will only get better). 
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I really don't understand how you would expect a guy who has only thrown for 4700 yards and greater than 30 TDs once in his career (both happened to be the same year) all of a sudden in his 9th NFL season as a starter to have this kind of production year in and year out (pace of 5,300/40/7). Seems much more likely to settle back into his typical 4600/29/14 type season. If you're paying a premium assuming anything near this years pace in the future I wish you well. 

 
thriftyrocker said:
Says the guy with the Falcons av. Julio should be there for Ryan's whole career, barring further injury. Sanu and Hooper are complimentary pieces.The two RB are great but Freeman's contract runs out next year. They are unlikely to pay both unless they get lucky (one gets hurt in a contract year?). Really it's hard to believe he is doing so much better than last year given how little changed, Sanu better than White, Coleman healthy and effective in the passing game. I think most is in Ryan's head or 2nd year with Kyle Shanahan, not the pieces around him. I would gladly pay Rivers and Snead for him but I don't view Snead too highly. Several Sneads. As many Sneads as it takes.
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I happen to think Snead is Brees' most trusted target and while he never gets the respect or valuation from the fantasy community of Cooks because of his pedigree he's not too far off his production. Back to QB discussion.

As you mention the pieces aren't that much better around Ryan yet he's lights out. This is more than likely a career year headed for significant regression. 

 
Paxton Lynch was dropped in my league the other day. I was about 20 minutes late getting the notice so I could grab him. Guy has Prescott and Wilson, but still seems crazy to just drop Lynch.

 
jeaton6 said:
I really don't understand how you would expect a guy who has only thrown for 4700 yards and greater than 30 TDs once in his career (both happened to be the same year) all of a sudden in his 9th NFL season as a starter to have this kind of production year in and year out (pace of 5,300/40/7). Seems much more likely to settle back into his typical 4600/29/14 type season. If you're paying a premium assuming anything near this years pace in the future I wish you well. 
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I see your point here, but the Falcons have a good young coordinator that Ryan is now comfortable with, they got a lot of speed/youth to go with Julio, and I do think its more likely Ryan will have better numbers for the next several years than what he has put up in the past. No to mention, the NFL is pass crazy, they play in a dome, and yes, Julio is the best WR in the game (sorry Antonio, I think Julio is better) 

 
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I can see Ryan sustaining these numbers ...maybe for a year or two (and that's a huge "maybe"). But things change too quickly in the NFL to assume this will be his norm.  The biggest factor for me in assessing his value is history and he just hasn't shown his ability to sustain this value so I'd have to put a lot of stock in his situation not changing at all over the next few years.

As for trade value, the FBG dynasty chart has him equal to or less than each of the three pieces that were requested in the offer that made me start this thread. I could maybe see a one for one deal for Ryan, but three players all valued higher for a QB having a career year! I just don't see it. Those are the type of trades that decimate a team for 2-3 seasons.

 
jeaton6 said:
I really don't understand how you would expect a guy who has only thrown for 4700 yards and greater than 30 TDs once in his career (both happened to be the same year) all of a sudden in his 9th NFL season as a starter to have this kind of production year in and year out (pace of 5,300/40/7). Seems much more likely to settle back into his typical 4600/29/14 type season. If you're paying a premium assuming anything near this years pace in the future I wish you well. 
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Well, Tom Brady has only broken 5000 yards once (so far!) and Peyton only did it once, so I think that part of the bet is pretty safe. The question is really can he consistently put up 35+ TDs per year. 4600 yards is okay if he's getting TDs TDs TDs. 5300-4600=700*0.25/16= 1.75 ppg. But 40-29=11*6/16= 4.125 ppg. Part of the reason he "sucked" last year was that Freeman had 11 rushing TDs. Brady has averaged 4500 yards and 34.7 TDs (passing and rushing) since his Moss year. Brady has 4 Top 5 finishes and 2 #8 finishes in that span. Can Ryan do that? Yes,he most certainly can. I have no doubt he would if game plan, situations, and personnel allow him to. We're seeing close to the max now, but that doesn't mean that the expected average hasn't shifted up to Brady territory, which is worth significant investment.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Says the guy with the Falcons av. Julio should be there for Ryan's whole career, barring further injury. Sanu and Hooper are complimentary pieces.The two RB are great but Freeman's contract runs out next year. They are unlikely to pay both unless they get lucky (one gets hurt in a contract year?). Really it's hard to believe he is doing so much better than last year given how little changed, Sanu better than White, Coleman healthy and effective in the passing game. I think most is in Ryan's head or 2nd year with Kyle Shanahan, not the pieces around him. I would gladly pay Rivers and Snead for him but I don't view Snead too highly. Several Sneads. As many Sneads as it takes.




 




 





 
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Says the guy who also said don't trust Ryan plenty of times in the past. Gabriel runs a 4.28 40 and is dangerous. Freeman will be resigned, Coleman is going to be giving defenses fits. Hooper is only going to get better.

jeaton6 said:
I really don't understand how you would expect a guy who has only thrown for 4700 yards and greater than 30 TDs once in his career (both happened to be the same year) all of a sudden in his 9th NFL season as a starter to have this kind of production year in and year out (pace of 5,300/40/7). Seems much more likely to settle back into his typical 4600/29/14 type season. If you're paying a premium assuming anything near this years pace in the future I wish you well. 




 




 





 
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Things click for people. Drew Brees went for 7-8 seasons throwing 3500 yards and 25 TD/15 INT's and then all of a sudden he's consistently putting up 5000+ yard seasons. He will be more 4700/35/9 over the next few seasons (especially if he's still with Kyle Shanahan). The Ryan of old would've folded against Seattle and Denver, but he still put up respectable #'s (100 QB rating) against both top ranked defenses.

 
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Shlon said:
Says the guy who also said don't trust Ryan plenty of times in the past. Gabriel runs a 4.28 40 and is dangerous. Freeman will be resigned, Coleman is going to be giving defenses fits. Hooper is only going to get better.
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Pretty sure most of my posts about Ryan are positive. Here's one I found. If you're going to throw shade, at least let it be based on something real.

I don't think Gabriel or Hooper are great players. Ryan may eventually make Hooper a good fantasy player but he is an average talent. Gabriel is new Hester different number. The reason for hope is that Ryan makes these players better, not that they are good players.

 
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