KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Having the projections for Dodds and MT up without the IVC up and running is just a huge tease.
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Fanduel Week 9 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NixonMask
- Start date
Dan Hindery
Moderator
It's up. Just not linked on the main page yet for some reason.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=tremblay_v16FanDuel09&utm_content=buffereb05e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
snogger
Footballguy
Made a mistake on that 2nd lineup.. I actually have KC's D penciled in and fixed it above.I like that 2nd one a bit more. I do wonder if it would be a decent idea to "downgrade" to Luck in that same game and use that to upgrade that WR3 somehow - try to get to a M.Thomas or something?Decided I liked the "Top Dog" RB Match-ups this week... Also figured it would be nice to fit Rodgers in.. Came up with these two lineups..
QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Elliott, WR's - Cooks, Moncrief, Brian Quick(Only $4500), TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D - Vikings
QB - Rodgers, RB's - Bell & Gordan, WR's - Dez Bryant, D. Thomas, Quick, TE - Rudolph, K - Lutz, D -VikingsKC
I know as soon as I do, they will score a ton, but I am starting to sour on that Minny D (noticing your avatar, I assume you are not). Is this a home/road thing? They have been a dud 2 weeks in a row vs offenses that should scare nobody in Philly and Chicago.
In regards to the Vikes D.... The last two weeks, with the offense doing nothing, they just seemed to lose their fire. Not to mention they were getting a couple of minute breaks before they had to rush back out and defend due to the 3 and outs.....
Really feel now with Norv resigning, the Offense will be a little less predictable and the Defense won't be running back on the field every 3 or 4 minutes..
and yea, it's at home so I feel they will get out of their slump and possibly ring up a score this week.
Hear you on the Quick selection and might consider a drop to Luck.. But "dropping" to Luck only gets me to $5600, M. Thomas is $5800.. Quick has been averaging a little over 9 points a game... at home vs. a "weak" Carolina Pass D seems like good value..
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Very early thoughts after first couple times through the slate:
1. Not sure if you can play C. West on Thursday locks without more clear info, but early vibe seems to point towards Ware being held out IMO. If that ends up being the case, West at $5600 is basically a lock and really opens roster construction up. Unfortunately, it would probably lead to a week where a big chunk of the 50/50 rosters look very similar (Rodgers, Zeke, West, Chiefs D, etc.)
2. I'm not normally a pay up guy at QB most weeks, but I'm leaning towards making an exception for Rodgers this week. They've turned their season around by almost ignoring the running game (Rodgers led them in rushing attempts and yards last week with 6-60) and throwing most plays. Monster team total of ~31 and Rodgers should have a hand in just about all of those points. Vontae Davis might miss with concussion.
3. Seems like the Cowboys pass more inside the 10 with Dez healthy, but still love Zeke coming back to Ohio this week. Seems like a better floor/ceiling combo than the high-end WRs and the best overall option on the slate as long as you can find the money, which I think you can.
4. Depends upon what happens with Ware/West and some of the other news (New Orleans backs, Hyde, etc.), but feels like there's an opportunity to pay down at RB2 and also at TE, so no need for major risks at the WR position. Probably won't have to go below Moncrief at $6100 or Michael Thomas $5800 for WR3. You can probably even run out three guys in the $6800 to $8200 range.
5. Don't love or hate any of the elite WRs but will probably end up being able to afford one of them. Maybe slight lean towards OBJ, but need to spend some time on this still...
(I do most of my research on Wed afternoon and Thurs. morning, then finish up Sat. night/Sun Morning so everything subject to change but like to play around with lineups beforehand just to get the lay of the land.)
1. Not sure if you can play C. West on Thursday locks without more clear info, but early vibe seems to point towards Ware being held out IMO. If that ends up being the case, West at $5600 is basically a lock and really opens roster construction up. Unfortunately, it would probably lead to a week where a big chunk of the 50/50 rosters look very similar (Rodgers, Zeke, West, Chiefs D, etc.)
2. I'm not normally a pay up guy at QB most weeks, but I'm leaning towards making an exception for Rodgers this week. They've turned their season around by almost ignoring the running game (Rodgers led them in rushing attempts and yards last week with 6-60) and throwing most plays. Monster team total of ~31 and Rodgers should have a hand in just about all of those points. Vontae Davis might miss with concussion.
3. Seems like the Cowboys pass more inside the 10 with Dez healthy, but still love Zeke coming back to Ohio this week. Seems like a better floor/ceiling combo than the high-end WRs and the best overall option on the slate as long as you can find the money, which I think you can.
4. Depends upon what happens with Ware/West and some of the other news (New Orleans backs, Hyde, etc.), but feels like there's an opportunity to pay down at RB2 and also at TE, so no need for major risks at the WR position. Probably won't have to go below Moncrief at $6100 or Michael Thomas $5800 for WR3. You can probably even run out three guys in the $6800 to $8200 range.
5. Don't love or hate any of the elite WRs but will probably end up being able to afford one of them. Maybe slight lean towards OBJ, but need to spend some time on this still...
(I do most of my research on Wed afternoon and Thurs. morning, then finish up Sat. night/Sun Morning so everything subject to change but like to play around with lineups beforehand just to get the lay of the land.)
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Sounds good, and I just saw this morning about Norv, so maybe the O will have a little more luck and help the D out. Quick does keep popping up in the IVC, so I might have to look into that more - thanks.Made a mistake on that 2nd lineup.. I actually have KC's D penciled in and fixed it above.
In regards to the Vikes D.... The last two weeks, with the offense doing nothing, they just seemed to lose their fire. Not to mention they were getting a couple of minute breaks before they had to rush back out and defend due to the 3 and outs.....
Really feel now with Norv resigning, the Offense will be a little less predictable and the Defense won't be running back on the field every 3 or 4 minutes..
and yea, it's at home so I feel they will get out of their slump and possibly ring up a score this week.
Hear you on the Quick selection and might consider a drop to Luck.. But "dropping" to Luck only gets me to $5600, M. Thomas is $5800.. Quick has been averaging a little over 9 points a game... at home vs. a "weak" Carolina Pass D seems like good value..
Not sure i am rolling with this, but I did put together a stud Rb LU as well after I was thinking about this discussion to see what it looked like, and I don't mind it:
Luck
Elliot/Bell
Sanders/Cobb/M.Thomas
Rudolph
Lutz
KC
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I would see that from time to time in MLB, but don't remember seeing it in NFL. It creates interesting scenarios. There are some weeks I wish I could just use $60,000 at 7 positions and take a 0 at the 8th.
Early look Thur-Mon Cash
Ryan/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Austin/Rud/Crosb/Dall
Luck/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Hurns/Rud/Cosb/KC
Luck/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Quick/Kelce/Crosb/KC
Brees/Zek/Gordo/Evans/TBen/MThom/Hooper/Crosby/KC
Dak.Zek/Free/Evans/Diggs/MThom/Rud/Crosb/KC
If you are daring
Kap/Zek/Gordo/AB/Diggs/MThom/Rud/Crosb/KC
Ryan/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Austin/Rud/Crosb/Dall
Luck/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Hurns/Rud/Cosb/KC
Luck/Zek/Gordo/Evans/MThom/Quick/Kelce/Crosb/KC
Brees/Zek/Gordo/Evans/TBen/MThom/Hooper/Crosby/KC
Dak.Zek/Free/Evans/Diggs/MThom/Rud/Crosb/KC
If you are daring
Kap/Zek/Gordo/AB/Diggs/MThom/Rud/Crosb/KC
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podunker
Footballguy
Excellent post and thoughts! I'm like you that there is still a lot of questions to be answered before I can make a final decision. Rodgers will definitely be 1 of my 3 cash QB's this week. I like Ben if he plays as another option. If I use him, AB will be in play for me. I'm a low TE guy most times also, but if I can fit Olsen in, I like him to do well this week. Otherwise looking at Doyle, Rudolph, Gates, Pitta, Hooper. Lots of mid tier WR available.
Guy I personally like that are not being talked about much are the Denver offense, and the SD defense.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
The rotoworld worksheet had interesting stats on Ben. Hasn't posted a top 12 performance in 8 games at Balt, and throws more picks than TDs on his first games back after injury in general. Also think it read that Brown has only had 1 game over 60yds in Baltimore as well.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Those earlier Baltimore teams could at least generate a pass rush. This year's team has dreadful corners and can't rush the passer for ####.
podunker
Footballguy
Very good info. Karma, thank you for sharing. That definitely makes me re think him a little. Once again the more info you have the better.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Keep seeing Gordon popping up all over the place. He is Dodds' #2 as well. I know all he does is score TDs, but Tenn is pretty damn good vs the run this year overall, and has been the best in the league vs. the run in the last 4 weeks. In those 4 weeks they have let monster #s on them through the air.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
podunker
Footballguy
My feeling on this game is that SD is going to win this outright and pound the ball with Gordon late. I love their defense also this week. Just my opinion of course.
James Daulton
Footballguy
And I'm not saying bet the farm on Ben since the Balt/Pitt games are usually close and fairly low scoring. I just think that Baltimore stinks this year and I'll have some exposure to some Pitt stacks.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
For sure. I had him penciled in as a possibility as well, and that gave me pause. Hard to pass Ben and that O up at 7500, but I wonder in cash if it's better to find the 500 extra for Luck or take a guy like Dak vs. a terrible team who has put up consistent #s anyway.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Hey, sometimes all we have is our feelings on things. For whatever reason I have found excuses not to play Gordon all year, and have been wrong a lot. Keep expecting something to happen - a couple games where the lack of TDs catches up with the bad yd/carry, but he does get more of their teams rush % than anybody still.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
How about this - I will fade him again, boosting your chances that he keeps performing?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Dumb question, but I have been burnt so many times by K and D this year, so I gotta ask - when you guys are building lineups like this, do you also ever mix up the K/Defs too?
Just like you are doing, I am looking at a core group of 4-5 guys and working around that for a couple different lineups. It always seems to land on the same K and Ds, I am not sure I like that. Since they are all expensive, is it worth throwing in one with Seattle D, Minny D, or Carolina D. Could just see a scenario like last week where the Jags (or Det, or Buff) getting smoked, the D lets up, and they put up 20 points in garbage time in the second half, having your Def score 5 pts.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Ravens are only giving up 220 passing yards a game and 6.5 yards per attempt. OBJ lit them up in the 2nd half of a game a few weeks ago after Jimmy Smith left with a concussion, but for the most part they've been pretty stingy against the pass this year. DVOA has them 14th against the pass and #6 overall defense.
I'm very intrigued by Brown as he just seems to be due for a big week soon. Plus, it's not hard to fit his salary in this week. But there are some serious red flags for this matchup that are making me question how good of a play he really is.
Last December Pitt went to B'more as big favorites with a team total of ~28 and everyone on Ben/Brown and they laid an egg. Ben ended up with 220 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs and the Ravens pulled the upset.
I'm very intrigued by Brown as he just seems to be due for a big week soon. Plus, it's not hard to fit his salary in this week. But there are some serious red flags for this matchup that are making me question how good of a play he really is.
Last December Pitt went to B'more as big favorites with a team total of ~28 and everyone on Ben/Brown and they laid an egg. Ben ended up with 220 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs and the Ravens pulled the upset.
Timmay
Footballguy
Plus both of these teams are coming off a bye, I think their defenses will be ready to play.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Good info - thanks!
You posted about West above. What are the rumblings about the KC situation? I was thinking that West would be the perfect gpp play this week for a Thurs slate if there is a little bit of uncertainty, but it's leaning towards Ware being out or limited.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Here's my lat bit of info on the Ravens D. So far this year they've faced: Buff, Clev, Jax, Oak, Wash, NYG, NYJ.
Not exactly a murderous row of elite QBs. I watch every Raven game and their pass D is not good.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
There's nothing concrete at all. Ware didn't practice today but Reid said there's still a chance he'd play. KC bloggers seem kind of pessimistic about him playing, but they obviously don't have any inside info or anything either:
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/10/31/13476378/chiefs-should-prepare-to-be-without-alex-smith-and-spencer-ware-against-the-jaguars
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/11/2/13499978/spencer-ware-remains-out-as-chiefs-practice-starts
If Ware doesn't practice again tomorrow, then I agree that the risk/reward of throwing Charcandrick into some GPPs on Thursday looks pretty good. Because you could hit big at lower ownership if Ware's out. And even if Ware doesn't end up playing, it's not like West is going to give you a zero or anything. He'll still have his role in a game where they could run a lot as big home favorites and a backup QB playing.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Speaking of KC, Nick Foles?
I try to find a low salary K in a high point total game, don't really look at anything else other than weather, at 4700 and a Total 54 Crosby fits the bill to a tee, I may have 90% exposure here.
As for Def, I look for teams playing bad offenses at home and look for offensives that turn the ball over often, again here Jax fits the bill, Bortles is a turnover machine. You can't really worry about the points against thing, just look at it like this, its more opportunity for your Def to get sacs/ints/fumbles when they are playing with a big lead.
I'll have a lot of exposure to
KC/Dall/Mia this week
This week, KC is +9 in TO ratio and Jax is -8
Take Den for example last week, they gave up 19 points but still managed sot score 22 thanks to the pic 6 and INTs
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I agree with all of this with 2 caveats -- I don't worry about PK salaries much, taking the guy I want. And in addition to the criteria above, I like teams that struggle in the red zone and/or aren't very good at running the ball.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Megla,
This is for you. . .
https://mobile.twitter.com/ColeFartley/status/793588025888563200
Sincerely,
Duke Broadway
This is for you. . .
https://mobile.twitter.com/ColeFartley/status/793588025888563200
Sincerely,
Duke Broadway
freeannyong
Footballguy
Just a reminder that everyone said the same thing last year and he was MEGA chalk at Baltimore and had like 9 fantasy points.James Daulton said:
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DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Thought you were the football guy jag insider/fan. Thought it was funny and was gonna share. My bad. Disregard the video.
NixonMask
Footballguy
All done, now comes the processing. A few things that stood out.
1. Kelvin Benjamin is going to feast. God lord, as long as he decides to show up its not even fair. He faces the worst CB in the NFL and has 6" height advantage on him.
2. I'm probably going to have 100% exposure to Siemian on DK. Hes just too cheap there, which is nice because it means I can have 0% of FD.
3. Tavon Austin is facing one of the worst corners in the league and he runs the 40 almost a quarter second faster than him.
1. Kelvin Benjamin is going to feast. God lord, as long as he decides to show up its not even fair. He faces the worst CB in the NFL and has 6" height advantage on him.
2. I'm probably going to have 100% exposure to Siemian on DK. Hes just too cheap there, which is nice because it means I can have 0% of FD.
3. Tavon Austin is facing one of the worst corners in the league and he runs the 40 almost a quarter second faster than him.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
1. We have said that before.
2. I will look into that.
3. I have thought Austin would have big games in the past as well.
Just giving you crap. Can't wait for all the info. That stuff is gold, especially for some gpp ideas.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
You got me thinking more on Ajayi. I think like Gordon, it's just one of those guys that aren't on my radar. He will get the load, and the rotoworld worksheet had an interesting stat on the Jets run D - they have allowed 4 top 12 scorers in the last 5 games. Division game that Miami is expected to win at home, and you might have something here.
Looks like Booker banged up a little, but he played through it last week and should be good to go vs. a worse D as you said. As I looked at stuff, the plan was to get in a bit of Thurs-Mon action again using the core of Zeke/Booker/Evans/Rudolph/Crosby/KC. I seem to like a lot of the Wrs in the 5400-6100 range, so that allows me to stick to Ryan and Rodgers as Qbs and use a couple of those WRs in each lineup to mix it up a little. Now I am seriously thinking about pivoting a few to Ajayi instead of Booker as well.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Thanks again for all that info! Will get to that tomorrow and see if I can understand it.
Timmay
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Is anyone going to run Holton out @ $0.00?
Ryan
Zeke/Gordon
Antonio/Evans/Holton
Olsen
Crosby
Chiefs
That's just blindly plugging-in the top projected point-scorers by FBG everywhere except QB. That seems like a roster that could cash.
Ryan
Zeke/Gordon
Antonio/Evans/Holton
Olsen
Crosby
Chiefs
That's just blindly plugging-in the top projected point-scorers by FBG everywhere except QB. That seems like a roster that could cash.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Thought about it because the IVC kept putting him in my lineups but haven't pulled the trigger. Any chance they correct it before kickoff and void the lineups?
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Heres how my lineup compares to that one
Ryan
Elliott. Gordon
Evans. Thomas. Ty Williams
Hooper
Crosby
KC
I put in a $1 GPP Thur-Mon just for the hell of it using a Rogers/Nelson stack with Zeke/Freeman/Evans/Olsen/Vinateiri/KC
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Too funny. I didn't know what people were talking about with this J.Holtan stuff until he popped in one my LUs on the IVC this morning.
Here is my Oakheart Thurs LU as of right now:
Winston
C.West/Sproles
Julio/A.Brown/Evans
J.Graham
Lambo
Eagles
All my cash lineups are heavy and top RBs and going WRs in the 5000s, so I wanted something opposite in the gpp this week. Figured there is unknown with both those Rbs, but they should get touches regardless and both hold 20 touch upside.
Here is my Oakheart Thurs LU as of right now:
Winston
C.West/Sproles
Julio/A.Brown/Evans
J.Graham
Lambo
Eagles
All my cash lineups are heavy and top RBs and going WRs in the 5000s, so I wanted something opposite in the gpp this week. Figured there is unknown with both those Rbs, but they should get touches regardless and both hold 20 touch upside.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
If Ware is out, I will have probably one West line up. More cause of game script. To me there is a significant drop off in talent from Ware and West. Ware gets alot of yards after contact. West often slips or goes out of bounds to easily.
