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Koya

So Trump Wins. States Rights w/ Cons. Fed Leadership. What next?

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So, let's play this dance out a little.  We can leave the whining and #####ing about the people actually running for President in the other threads, but let's postulate the following:

Trump wins.  As such, Republicans keep control of House and Senate.   They put a couple new justices on while eroding "Liberal" policies coinciding with a strong emphasis on states rights. What happens?

Let's say somehow Roe v. Wade is overturned, Obamacare would be dust in short order.  Federal level protections from anything from women's health and decision making to LBGTQ community issues are pulled back.

 

 

What next? We see what has happened in Charlotte because of one freakin' rest room bill that hardly has an effect on anyone's life (didnt say no one is effected, but it's not as if millions of women suddenly can't get an abortion, or undoing legal marriages for thousands, just as society has finally begun to embrace the idea as a whole).  If states truly could run with legislation similar to what NC enacted, wouldn't we expect the free market to adjust accordingly?

You think Goldman Sachs, not to say Google or the next high tech IT company, or the next maker's manufacturer that becomes a big thing are going to willingnly locate/re-locate to areas where their most values commodity, their high paid knowledge workforce, is not comfortable living?

The libertarian in me says screw it, just tear it all down. Let the true compassionate (and/or at least not brain dead) regions like Utah and Salt Lake City embrace diverse populations and provide the appropriate government protections to foster that sense of community and acceptance grow while those states that want to deny equality and humanity suffer as a result.  Let businesses make the decision, economically, that the loss of human resources over a long period of time by locating in such areas would be far greater than the short term pain, and long term additional costs, of moving to the dreaded business-unfriendly north.

Curious as to folks take on what would happen if indeed we let the country "split" by becoming far more Conservative at a federal level, with far more states' rights oriented in general.  Which states might upend which laws, and with what result?

 

 

 

 

 

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I can't see any scenario where Roe v Wade is overturned. Ever. Maybe some federal funding to Planned Parenthood is adjusted, but that's about it. 

I also think same sex issues are solidified and won't be changed. Although, transgender rights and that movement will stall. 

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Republicans had control of the White House, Supreme Court, and Congress early in W's administration, and he was voted into office entirely on the support of the Religious Right, and nothing happened to Roe v. Wade. Why would that be so different now if Trump is elected to 'drain the swamp' rather than on religious fervor?

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6 minutes ago, Dentist said:

Not worth discussing.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

HIlary is 71% to win..   Trump would have to hit a 3 outer... 

Trump's up 4% from yesterday.  I don't like the trajectories of those red and blue lines - they seem to converge on the 50 line prior to Nov. 8th.

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My doomsday prediction is looking scarily more potentially possibly real.

:oldunsure:

 

 

ETA: Trent Richardson RB just tried out for the Chiefs.  If that guy ends up playing in the NFL again, hell maybe has already frozen over. 

Edited by Koya

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23 minutes ago, Walking Boot said:

Republicans had control of the White House, Supreme Court, and Congress early in W's administration, and he was voted into office entirely on the support of the Religious Right, and nothing happened to Roe v. Wade. Why would that be so different now if Trump is elected to 'drain the swamp' rather than on religious fervor?

And as to why I think this time would be different than the Bush years... because it's a different era.  There is a greater public divisiveness, not only political. We aren't polarized as we may have been then, we are split, and splintered.  There is an anger, and a recognition by what had been the power base of this country, white males, christian/conservative, that their "way of life" is giving way.  Now, mind you, their life doesn't have to change at all, but as opposed to their way being at worst the accepted and often the only way, it's a loss nonetheless.  Going down fighting here.  

Also, if you haven't noticed, Trump's freakin' crazy.  Who the hell knows what the #### would happen.  And shame on us if we vote to find out.

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Just now, Koya said:

And as to why I think this time would be different than the Bush years... because it's a different era.  There is a greater public divisiveness, not only political. We aren't polarized as we may have been then, we are split, and splintered.  There is an anger, and a recognition by what had been the power base of this country, white males, christian/conservative, that their "way of life" is giving way.  Now, mind you, their life doesn't have to change at all, but as opposed to their way being at worst the accepted and often the only way, it's a loss nonetheless.  Going down fighting here.  

Also, if you haven't noticed, Trump's freakin' crazy.  Who the hell knows what the #### would happen.  And shame on us if we vote to find out.

I don't think the stuff we're arguing about is the abortion issue.

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Just now, Walking Boot said:

I don't think the stuff we're arguing about is the abortion issue.

I do believe it will be affected in some way.  Not Roe v. Wade, but a lot more "Texas like" discretion given to the states to interpret and execute those laws. I could see states that made it whereby you'd effectively have no, or very, very limited facilities.  Or have huge costs.. I mean, it's not a stretch to assume some states would push the envelope as far as they could in the direction of limited/elimination of access.

Just one example off the top of my head.  But I can tell you what, fair or not, NO way my wife would ever move to a state like that. I'm not even kidding... and if we had a daughter, I'd probably agree.  Could see issues like that compound upon one another in certain regions. It would be curious to see how the urban vs. suburban/rural divide takes hold then.  My guess is urban/suburban interests align on a state local level, and that's going to drive those interests where Dallas and Houston or Charlotte vs. the State are not going to want to constrain their economic advantages... that would tip the scales in many states in terms of voter alignment, but those states are already gerrymandered to favor the incumbent Republican's in the State Houses.

 

I mean, it's generally accepted that our nation has been moving to the left regarding these social issues.... could one last bellow from the right, rearing an ugly nationalist and exclusionary head, end up creating a counter reaction of a larger, but more open to moderates/independents left? And the time flows regarding election cycles to see how that might pan out would be fascinating. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SacramentoBob said:

We do this all again in 4-8 years.  Cya then. :blackdot:

Not like this we better not.  Can't we get a respectable and good candidate, like W. ?

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Roe v. Wade isn't the controlling law on abortion.  Casey v. Planned Parenthood is. 

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13 minutes ago, Zow said:

Roe v. Wade isn't the controlling law on abortion.  Casey v. Planned Parenthood is. 

You feel that with 2, maybe 3 hard right justices that carries the water?

Asking legit like, no idea to be honest. 

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1 hour ago, Koya said:

somehow Roe v. Wade is overturned,

I don't see a Trump USSC doing this and I don't see Trump signing any anti-abortion laws.

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1 minute ago, Koya said:

You feel that with 2, maybe 3 hard right justices that carries the water?

Asking legit like, no idea to be honest. 

I don't know, honestly.  Casey is a plurality opinion that, while it upheld the general holding of Roe v. Wade, it didn't somewhat limit it and give some power to the states.  I also think it was a very well written and reasoned opinion.  

It's a tough call her since, generally, we don't see the Supreme Court just outright reverse itself.  And, generally, when it does it's to correct some horrible policy error (e.g. slavery, Japanese internment camps, interracial marriage, criminalizing sodomy). 

So, I have a hard time thinking that it'll happen since usually the court movement in overruling itself is from right to left on the political spectrum.  But, I suppose it could. 

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1 hour ago, Koya said:

Federal level protections from anything from women's health and decision making to LBGTQ community issues are pulled back.

I don't think this is Trump either.

I think the man LOVES the imperial presidency, I see federal power expanding under him, not withdrawing.

That being said, I could see it being schizo, where he eliminates whole departments like the DOE and EPA and then he spends a gazillion dollars on DOT, HHS, DOD and NASA.

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1 hour ago, Koya said:

Curious as to folks take on what would happen if indeed we let the country "split" by becoming far more Conservative at a federal level, with far more states' rights oriented in general.  Which states might upend which laws, and with what result?

I think the powers that be run a lot of head fakes on us.

We argue about abortion and gay rights and voting laws and yadayadayada... and meanwhile what they are mostly interested in is financial and manufacturing regulation.

I would see a Trump USSC limiting rights like the 1st-8th Amendments and ignoring the 9th & 10th Amendments. With a GOP Congress I guess the 2nd Amendment would be pretty safe from legislation but that is it.

I honestly see no uptick in federalism or states' rights under Trump, actually a reduction of it. I see him as a Tinpot Chavez.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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1 hour ago, Amused to Death said:

Trump's up 4% from yesterday.  I don't like the trajectories of those red and blue lines - they seem to converge on the 50 line prior to Nov. 8th.

I'd suggest the Dems get another debate scheduled this week, but obviously Trump wouldn't go for that. But, the other thing that gave Hillary a huge bump was the Dem convention. So, the they should hold a convention/party where they just trot out all of the likable dems to give speeches this week and just talk about the party platform and how horrible Trump is. 

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Obama had control of all this in his first 2 years and barely got ACA through, right? The minority party can gunk up the works.

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The higher Trump goes the higher the fear mongering level.  If he ever hits a majority the destruction of the universe may become a distinct possibility.

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2 hours ago, Walking Boot said:
2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Tinpot Chavez.

 

Band name

 

I think I heard Tinpot Chavez open for the Frozen Black Grapes once in Cincinnati.

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2 hours ago, dgreen said:

I'd suggest the Dems get another debate scheduled this week, but obviously Trump wouldn't go for that. But, the other thing that gave Hillary a huge bump was the Dem convention. So, the they should hold a convention/party where they just trot out all of the likable dems to give speeches this week and just talk about the party platform and how horrible Trump is. 

They need to get Billy Bush on the campaign trail. 

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the only way trump wins is if the latest revelations turn into a huge scandal for hillary and the power elite. As such, hed actually have a mandate to direct the fbi to investigate the democrat party. If he won THIS way and didnt direct a major investigation, his supporters would be furious. 

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2 hours ago, jonessed said:

The higher Trump goes the higher the fear mongering level.  If he ever hits a majority the destruction of the universe may become a distinct possibility.

Ironically, the more he fear mongers the more his base gets fired up.

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3 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Ironically, the more he fear mongers the more his base gets fired up.

Trump or Koya?

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Just now, Olaf said:

Trump or Koya?

What fear? Fat Cap Gains checks, unfettered access to super double assault rifles and a free pass to just grab chicks by the #####!  

Sounds like a party to me.

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Wow.  Some of you are so blinded by your politics that you can't entertain a hypothetical.

With the current environment, a Trump presidency plus a GOP house and senate would end the ACA, roll back nearly all environmental protections, favor coal and oil over development of renewable resources, and push state's rights to the forefront.  Although I don't think the SC is all that interested in touching Casey v Planned Parenthood, that decision left room for reasonable state legislation.  I see a lot of states pushing the envelope regulating doctors and clinics to effectively push abortion out of their states.  

Freaking Tea Party would get stronger, corporate taxes would reach new lows and the middle class would get crushed.

Record unemployment, but people could choose to be uninsured, so they can burden the health care system.  Lack of funding will cripple Medicare and social security.  

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8 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

October 29th, Trump was at 19%.  He's now up to 30% just 4 days later.

He must be gaining more outs.

What I don't understand is how these numbers move...  did a bunch of people change their minds in 4 days?   Are there really that many people on the fence at this point?

I mean I already voted... I null voted for president..   Trump is going to carry my state with high certainty

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13 hours ago, -fish- said:

Wow.  Some of you are so blinded by your politics that you can't entertain a hypothetical.

With the current environment, a Trump presidency plus a GOP house and senate would end the ACA, roll back nearly all environmental protections, favor coal and oil over development of renewable resources, and push state's rights to the forefront.  Although I don't think the SC is all that interested in touching Casey v Planned Parenthood, that decision left room for reasonable state legislation.  I see a lot of states pushing the envelope regulating doctors and clinics to effectively push abortion out of their states.  

Freaking Tea Party would get stronger, corporate taxes would reach new lows and the middle class would get crushed.

Record unemployment, but people could choose to be uninsured, so they can burden the health care system.  Lack of funding will cripple Medicare and social security.  

 

end the ACA - yes, essentially, and none too soon

roll back nearly all environmental protections - no :rolleyes:

favor coal and oil over development of renewable resources - yes, in terms of bringing back a balance commensurate with energy usage

push state's rights to the forefront - not even sure what you guys are meaning by this, though the 10th Amendment (part of the Bill of Rights) is there for a very good reason

states pushing the envelope regulating doctors and clinics to effectively push abortion out of their states - yes

Freaking Tea Party would get stronger - no, not even really a thing any more

corporate taxes would reach new lows - no

the middle class would get crushed - no

Record unemployment - no, see first bullet

 

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13 hours ago, -fish- said:

Wow.  Some of you are so blinded by your politics that you can't entertain a hypothetical.

With the current environment, a Trump presidency plus a GOP house and senate would end the ACA, roll back nearly all environmental protections, favor coal and oil over development of renewable resources, and push state's rights to the forefront.  Although I don't think the SC is all that interested in touching Casey v Planned Parenthood, that decision left room for reasonable state legislation.  I see a lot of states pushing the envelope regulating doctors and clinics to effectively push abortion out of their states.  

Freaking Tea Party would get stronger, corporate taxes would reach new lows and the middle class would get crushed.

Record unemployment, but people could choose to be uninsured, so they can burden the health care system.  Lack of funding will cripple Medicare and social security.  

He could make Christie AG, who has vowed to shut down the weed dispensaries in the states where it's been legalized. That's a stupid thing to do long term, of course.

Ending Obamacare with nothing sensible to replace it could see the whole rotten system crumbing and pave the way for single payer, though. Republicans appear to favor no system in favor of a universal system so maybe that doesn't work out, either. 

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If Trump wins, perhaps I have a solution.

 

We get CERN to fire up the Large Hadron Collider.  Only this time, they crank it up to 11.  One more than 10.  That should be enough to create a new big bang, and re-set everything.

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52 minutes ago, Dentist said:

 

What I don't understand is how these numbers move...  did a bunch of people change their minds in 4 days?   Are there really that many people on the fence at this point?

 

Since neither was above 50, some of the gain comes from Undecided people deciding. The rest may come from revised turnout models. Get enough people from a certain demographic to say 'screw it, I'm staying home' and the numbers will shift a bit. A person leaning for Clinton who decides not to vote counts twice. . . 1 lost Clinton vote and 1 fewer person canceling out a Trump. 

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Never mind, The Donald has the replacement for ACA covered -- everybody can have HSAs and can negotiate their own health insurance coverage. I don't know why posters here have been arguing about it for a thousand pages, it really was that simple to fix all along.

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Well, here we are, folks.  We've got what promises on the table?

- Jail Hillary

- Build the wall

- Scrap Obamacare (on day one)

- Round up all immigrants for deportation (and possible re-entry)

- Cease all immigration by Muslims

- Lower taxes on the wealthy and on business, BIGLY

- Tear up NAFTA (and then some)

 

What else do we have lined up for the first hundred days?

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On 11/1/2016 at 4:33 PM, Koya said:

Let's say somehow Roe v. Wade is overturned, Obamacare would be dust in short order.  Federal level protections from anything from women's health and decision making to LBGTQ community issues are pulled back.

 

:yucky: 

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17 minutes ago, Koya said:

Well, here we are, folks.  We've got what promises on the table?

- Jail Hillary

- Build the wall

- Scrap Obamacare (on day one)

- Round up all immigrants for deportation (and possible re-entry)

- Cease all immigration by Muslims

- Lower taxes on the wealthy and on business, BIGLY

- Tear up NAFTA (and then some)

 

What else do we have lined up for the first hundred days?

Have to imagine certain environmental protections that hurt big energy will be on the chopping block.  

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1 minute ago, NutterButter said:

Have to imagine certain environmental protections that hurt big energy will be on the chopping block.  

Good point. EPA could be gutted.  

Trump may not have Florida to bank on in four years as it could be submerged by then.

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Roe vs Wade is not going to be overturned and why this comes up every election is puzzling. Clinton was the one who kept bringing it up forcing Trump to respond to it. There will never be a wall, There is not going to be mass deportation. There will be no jail for Hillary as I am sure a deal will be cut soon to have her quietly go away. I am sure some of the trade deals will be re-worked and they should be.  Ross Perot said we are not asking for much... "Just give us the same deal we give you"  Why not?

 

The Obamacare cost rise fiasco will have to be dealt with as this is one of the reasons Trump won.

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Gutting the EPA, repealing obamacare and getting a far right justice appointed would be the smart plays.   None of that is particularly messy.  Trying to deport 12M people or spending an astronomical amount of money on a wall that will take years to complete are messy.  Tax cuts sound nice, but one of these days, the rubes will realize that it all keeps going to the rich.  Protectionism is neat, but it won't be long until businesses just replace all these idiots with robots once the cost of doing so becomes less;  its not like they have any unions to fall back on.   

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2 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Roe vs Wade is not going to be overturned and why this comes up every election is puzzling. Clinton was the one who kept bringing it up forcing Trump to respond to it. There will never be a wall, There is not going to be mass deportation. There will be no jail for Hillary as I am sure a deal will be cut soon to have her quietly go away. I am sure some of the trade deals will be re-worked and they should be.  Ross Perot said we are not asking for much... "Just give us the same deal we give you"  Why not?

 

The Obamacare cost rise fiasco will have to be dealt with as this is one of the reasons Trump won.

Not yet, but two far right justices and they'll have the numbers, no?

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Here is a partial list of what he said he was going to do:

 Get rid of Obamacare and replace it with something "terrific", paid for by the government
 Knock down the regulatory walls between states for health insurance
 Rebuild the country's aging infrastructure, especially our third world airports
 Remove funding for planned parenthood
 Bar Syrian refugees from entering the country and kick out any who are already living here
 Stop spending money on space exploration until all the potholes in our roads are fixed
 Strengthen the military so it's "so big and so strong and so great" that "nobody's going to mess with us."
 Bomb the s--- out of ISIS
 Grow the nation's economy by at least 6 percent 
 Reduce the $18 trillion national debt by getting rid of waste
 Cut the budget by 20 percent by simply renegotiating
 Get rid of gun-free zones at military bases and in schools
 Provide more funding for police training
 Provide more funding for drug treatment
 Deport the almost 11 million immigrants illegally living in the United States
 Triple the number of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers
 Bring steel jobs back to western PA
 Reopen all of the coal mines in WV
 End birthright citizenship

Should be a piece of cake...

 

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2 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

Here is a partial list of what he said he was going to do:

 Get rid of Obamacare and replace it with something "terrific", paid for by the government
 Knock down the regulatory walls between states for health insurance
 Rebuild the country's aging infrastructure, especially our third world airports
 Remove funding for planned parenthood
 Bar Syrian refugees from entering the country and kick out any who are already living here
 Stop spending money on space exploration until all the potholes in our roads are fixed
 Strengthen the military so it's "so big and so strong and so great" that "nobody's going to mess with us."
 Bomb the s--- out of ISIS
 Grow the nation's economy by at least 6 percent 
 Reduce the $18 trillion national debt by getting rid of waste
 Cut the budget by 20 percent by simply renegotiating
 Get rid of gun-free zones at military bases and in schools
 Provide more funding for police training
 Provide more funding for drug treatment
 Deport the almost 11 million immigrants illegally living in the United States
 Triple the number of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers
 Bring steel jobs back to western PA
 Reopen all of the coal mines in WV
 End birthright citizenship

Should be a piece of cake...

 

Planned parenthood funding.  That's almost a guarantee to go bye bye.

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On 11/1/2016 at 4:18 PM, Dentist said:

Not worth discussing.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

HIlary is 71% to win..   Trump would have to hit a 3 outer... 

 

The 3 outer hit...   sound the bad beat alarm.

I guess you simply can't trust these prognosticators in any way moving forward...    this is the equivalent of forecasting a warm sunny day and then getting hit with a tornado and torrential downpour...

or forecasting a great season from Tatum Bell and then... well...  the Tatum Bell season happened.

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