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2017 Dynasty Drafts: My FINAL Top 15 pre-DRAFT (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

JohnnyU

Footballguy
2017 will be a very deep draft.  Here is my take on the top 15 in 12 or 14 team dynasty PPR leagues with starting only 1 QB pre-NFL Draft.  - Updated 4/16/2017

1 - Leonard Fournette RB LSU 

2 - Joe Mixon RB Oklahoma - trending up - like what Greg Cosell says about him

3 - Corey Davis WR Western Michigan - trending up - not sure he will be a star, but he has passed Mike Williams

4 - Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford

5 - Mike Williams WR Clemson

6 - Dalvin Cook RB Florida St. - trending down - too much baggage and even though Cosell says he could be productive in the right system, he has serious doubts about him

7 - Alvin Kamara RB Tennessee

8 - O J Howard TE Alabama - trending up

9 - John Ross WR Washington

10 - David Njoku TE Miami

11 - Evan Engram TE Ole Miss - trending up - workout numbers are studly.  I believe I may have been wrong about this guy.

12 - D'Onta Foreman RB Texas - trending up

13 - Ju Ju Smith-Schuster WR USC - trending up, but I'm not convinced

14 - Wayne Gallman RB Clemson 

15 - Kareem Hunt RB Toledo

No QBs from this draft should be selected in the top 15 of dynasty drafts for leagues starting 1 QB.

 
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Really good year to have 4 picks in the first. (3 top 6)  I can't wait to see how high these players go in the NFL draft.  Good year to stockpile picks and go after RB/WR

 
JohnnyU said:
PPR Dynasty Leagues, start 1 QB 

2017 will be a very deep draft and players I didn't mention in my top 5 like Chubb, McCaffrey, Freeman, etc are all worthy.  I believe you could swap any from 2-5 and be right, or someone like Chubb could easily rank in the top 5.

1 - Leonard Fournette RB LSU 

2 - Mike Williams WR Clemson

3 - Corey Davis WR Western Michigan

4 - Ju-Ju Smith Schuster WR USC

5 - Dalvin Cook RB Florida St.
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When the draft actually gets here I'd be surprised if JuJu and Davis are taken in front of some of the RB's you mentioned didn't make your list.  Probably depends on landing spot but still I'd imagine the top5 consists of at least 3 RB's.

 
Zyphros said:
When the draft actually gets here I'd be surprised if JuJu and Davis are taken in front of some of the RB's you mentioned didn't make your list.  Probably depends on landing spot but still I'd imagine the top5 consists of at least 3 RB's.
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PPR (as stated in OP) dictates at least 3 WRs taken in the top 5 in dynasty leagues, especially with the talent that is available. 

 
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kittenmittens said:
I love McCaffrey...  I can't rank yet tho  gotta see the situations. 
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This is why I only ranked 5 instead of 10.  I feel these are the best 5 (perhaps Chubb belongs as well) and situation shouldn't drop any of them outside the top 5.

 
If Fournette went to a bad situation and McCaffery to a good one I would rather have McCaffrey.  I firmly believe that one of the biggest factors in NFL success is situation.   Plenty of talented players get drafted by a team with the wrong scheme for their talents or the wrong opportunity profile and they languish through little fault or their own.  

Really talented players like D'Angelo Williams and Jon Stewart never reached their full fantasy potential.   Todd Gurley is having problems like this right now,  while Zeke Elliot is tearing it up.   Gurley is far more talented,  but Elliot is better in fantasy and will be for the foreseeable future. 

 
kittenmittens said:
If Fournette went to a bad situation and McCaffery to a good one I would rather have McCaffrey.  I firmly believe that one of the biggest factors in NFL success is situation.   Plenty of talented players get drafted by a team with the wrong scheme for their talents or the wrong opportunity profile and they languish through little fault or their own.  

Really talented players like D'Angelo Williams and Jon Stewart never reached their full fantasy potential.   Todd Gurley is having problems like this right now,  while Zeke Elliot is tearing it up.   Gurley is far more talented,  but Elliot is better in fantasy and will be for the foreseeable future. 
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I can't see Fournette going almost anywhere that he wouldn't start right away, he's that good.  As for Gurley, he went to a great situation at the time and everyone knew he would be the man there and we simply don't know how the OL was going to be.  I wouldn't trade Gurley for any RB not named Elliott and I would have to think that one over, but would probably do it.  I believe I read (some writers opinion) that Dallas would have taken Fournette over Elliott if he was available and I agree with him. No way I take McCaffrey in any situation over Fournette.  You don't take a player over Fournette based on situation because his talent should win out wherever he goes.  Now Dalvin Cook is s different story and I could see Chubb beting taken over him, especially if the situation is great.  I doubt I would take Freeman or Perine over Cook should their situation be a better landing spot.  As for WRs, I always go for talent over situation in dynasty leagues because long term anything can happen with situation.

Edited to say:  In dynasty leagues you have to think more than one year in advance and not let situation change who you take, especially if your team is a really bad team.  A really bad NFL team with a really bad QB drafting a really good WR will probably draft or trade for a really good QB very soon.....well, maybe not Cleveland :)

 
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JohnnyU said:
I can't see Fournette going almost anywhere that he wouldn't start right away, he's that good.  As for Gurley, he went to a great situation at the time and everyone knew he would be the man there and we simply don't know how the OL was going to be.  I wouldn't trade Gurley for any RB not named Elliott and I would have to think that one over, but would probably do it.  I believe I read (some writers opinion) that Dallas would have taken Fournette over Elliott if he was available and I agree with him. No way I take McCaffrey in any situation over Fournette.  You don't take a player over Fournette based on situation because his talent should win out wherever he goes.  Now Dalvin Cook is s different story and I could see Chubb beting taken over him, especially if the situation is great.  I doubt I would take Freeman or Perine over Cook should their situation be a better landing spot.  As for WRs, I always go for talent over situation in dynasty leagues because long term anything can happen with situation.

Edited to say:  In dynasty leagues you have to think more than one year in advance and not let situation change who you take, especially if your team is a really bad team.  A really bad NFL team with a really bad QB drafting a really good WR will probably draft or trade for a really good QB very soon.....well, maybe not Cleveland :)
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In my opinion,  talent does not just automatically win out.  It should in theory,  but it really doesn't in practice.  There are lots of other factors including the players own work ethic,  which for young guys like this can absolutely be influenced by the situation.   If a player is drafted early,  he is with that team for 5 years.   Like you said,  getting drafted by Cleveland or an equivalent dumpster fire situation can severely negatively impact or even totally derail a career.  RB careers aren't that long so that first 5 years is not only the players only opportunity to break into the NFL but make up the bulk of an RB career.  I think the ultimate example of guys who overcame initial bad situation here is Marshawn Lynch with Buffalo or Thomas Jones, but there are also guys who totally washed out like Chris Perry or Trent Richardson.  There are also guys who go to good situations but don't fit for various reasons,  like Laurence Maroney in New England.   Sometimes the mental part isn't there and the team expects it to be.   Other times a player is fine, but never lives up to his talent because he is held back by a bad team and bad game script like Steven Jackson.  

Good conversation here on this,  I know I am in the minority but I do think situations are a much bigger factor than they get credit for.   It's not just the in game situation... 

 
kittenmittens said:
In my opinion,  talent does not just automatically win out.  It should in theory,  but it really doesn't in practice.  There are lots of other factors including the players own work ethic,  which for young guys like this can absolutely be influenced by the situation.   If a player is drafted early,  he is with that team for 5 years.   Like you said,  getting drafted by Cleveland or an equivalent dumpster fire situation can severely negatively impact or even totally derail a career.  RB careers aren't that long so that first 5 years is not only the players only opportunity to break into the NFL but make up the bulk of an RB career.  I think the ultimate example of guys who overcame initial bad situation here is Marshawn Lynch with Buffalo or Thomas Jones, but there are also guys who totally washed out like Chris Perry or Trent Richardson.  There are also guys who go to good situations but don't fit for various reasons,  like Laurence Maroney in New England.   Sometimes the mental part isn't there and the team expects it to be.   Other times a player is fine, but never lives up to his talent because he is held back by a bad team and bad game script like Steven Jackson.  

Good conversation here on this,  I know I am in the minority but I do think situations are a much bigger factor than they get credit for.   It's not just the in game situation... 
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I'll agree that what is between the ears of players and their work ethic play into it as much, if not more, than talent, but NFL team situations can change.  If it's a dynasty league you have to put talent, character, and work ethic above situation.  Unless of course you're an owner who won't make a long term commitment to a league and you lucked into an early pick of the draft when you just joined.  Those types of owners should only play redraft leagues.  I'm not saying you are one of those owners, just sayin'.

 
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JohnnyU said:
I'll agree that what is between the ears of players and their work ethic play into it as much, if not more, than talent, but NFL team situations can change.  If it's a dynasty league you have to put talent, character, and work ethic above situation.
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Very true.   I'd say Devonte Booker is in a fantastic situation,  especially with CJ Anderson there to help him be prepared mentally and show him how a professional does things.  

Quick thought experiment...  What is currently dynasty value if Elliot went to Tennessee and Henry went to Dallas? 

 
kittenmittens said:
Very true.   I'd say Devonte Booker is in a fantastic situation,  especially with CJ Anderson there to help him be prepared mentally and show him how a professional does things.  

Quick thought experiment...  What is currently dynasty value if Elliot went to Tennessee and Henry went to Dallas? 
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I still would have taken Elliott because Henry's talent isn't nowhere near Elliott's.  Maybe some redraft leagues would have taken Henry over Elliott in that scenario, but not me.  As for Booker, his situation wasn't very good with Anderson in Denver, who a lot of people liked him very much, but look at Booker now and we're not even talking about a long time since he was drafted.

 
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kittenmittens said:
Very true.   I'd say Devonte Booker is in a fantastic situation,  especially with CJ Anderson there to help him be prepared mentally and show him how a professional does things.  

Quick thought experiment...  What is currently dynasty value if Elliot went to Tennessee and Henry went to Dallas? 
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Considering the year that Murray is having in Tennessee, not that much different assuming Elliott were to be the lead guy in Tennessee.  This thought experiment is exactly why Henry should be a strong buy right now.  When he inherits the reigns, he's a top 5 RB.

 
SayWhat? said:
Considering the year that Murray is having in Tennessee, not that much different assuming Elliott were to be the lead guy in Tennessee.  This thought experiment is exactly why Henry should be a strong buy right now.  When he inherits the reigns, he's a top 5 RB.
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Elliot probably wouldn't be the lead guy in Tennessee due to contract. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I still would have taken Elliott because Henry's talent isn't nowhere near Elliott's.  As for Booker, his situation wasn't very good with Anderson in Denver, who a lot of people liked him very much, but look at Booker now and we're not even talking about a long time since he was drafted.
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Yeah in terms of the Booker situation,  what i meant is that he is in a good situation from a long term angle.  He has a good role model in terms of knowledgeable NFL player to learn from.   The competition for carries isn't great though.   I guess it's the difference between  the off field and on field situation.   In terms of off field situation it is probably a bad bet for 10 or so franchises to turn it around within 5 years. 

 
JohnnyU said:
PPR (as stated in OP) dictates at least 3 WRs taken in the top 5 in dynasty leagues, especially with the talent that is available. 
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Rb's catch passes as well and some really talented pass catching RB's in this draft.

So for me I think kind of reverse of you. I would say the talent that is available is dictating 3 RB's go in top 5.

I got Fournette and Cook as my top 2, a little harder after that for me to pin down a top 5 right other than those two.

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah in terms of the Booker situation,  what i meant is that he is in a good situation from a long term angle.  He has a good role model in terms of knowledgeable NFL player to learn from.   The competition for carries isn't great though.   I guess it's the difference between  the off field and on field situation.   In terms of off field situation it is probably a bad bet for 10 or so franchises to turn it around within 5 years. 
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Before Anderson got hurt Booker's situation wasn't great because Anderson was the starter.  However, Booker was eating into his carries more and more as the season wore on and before Anderson got hurt.  Another example where situation shouldn't dictate who you draft.

 
JohnnyU said:
Before Anderson got hurt Booker's situation wasn't great because Anderson was the starter.  However, Booker was eating into his carries more and more as the season wore on and before Anderson got hurt.  Another example where situation shouldn't dictate who you draft.
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I was arguing that there are multiple elements to situation.   This is a narrow view that only looks at on field opportunities and not other factors like structured player management vs wild west.   Broncos have a strong organization with a strong role model for a rookie RB to learn from but opportunities were lacking.   That's probably better than the situation Trent Richardson entered despite Richardson having the carries to himself.  

It's nuanced. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Elliot probably wouldn't be the lead guy in Tennessee due to contract. 
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Then it's a fruitless "what if" to play IMO.  I guess I assumed under your "flip Elliott and Henry" game that Elliott were still a top 5 pick in the NFL draft and if so, then he'd absolutely be the lead guy if he were in Tennessee because no team is investing a top 5 pick in a RB if he's not going to be the guy.  So I guess as a top 5 pick in the NFL draft, I don't think Zeke's value would change a whole lot whether he were in Tennessee instead of Dallas.  Either way he's still a 21 year old workhorse RB in a great rushing offense. 

 
JohnnyU said:
PPR (as stated in OP) dictates at least 3 WRs taken in the top 5 in dynasty leagues, especially with the talent that is available. 
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I'm not sure this is true.  Workhorse RB scarcity has vaulted the value of a lot of these guys.  Guys like Elliot and Gurley generally went ahead of all the WRs even in PPR leagues and a guy like Gordon went ahead of most.  A lot of people believe there are 3 or even 4 RBs that good in this year's class so they could certainly all go in the top 5.

 
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SayWhat? said:
Then it's a fruitless "what if" to play IMO.  I guess I assumed under your "flip Elliott and Henry" game that Elliott were still a top 5 pick in the NFL draft and if so, then he'd absolutely be the lead guy if he were in Tennessee because no team is investing a top 5 pick in a RB if he's not going to be the guy.  So I guess as a top 5 pick in the NFL draft, I don't think Zeke's value would change a whole lot whether he were in Tennessee instead of Dallas.  Either way he's still a 21 year old workhorse RB in a great rushing offense. 
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You're right there are too many assumptions.   I was flipping it and saying Dallas drafted Henry at 4 instead because they liked him more and Tennessee got Elliott where Henry was drafted.  My point was just that if Henry was in Dallas his dynasty value would be a whole lot higher than it is right now.   Elliott would not be higher than he is now if he was on Tennessee.   The same is debatable. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm not sure this is true.  Workhorse RB scarcity has vaulted the value of a lot of these guys.  Guys like Elliot and Gurley generally went ahead of all the WRs even in PPR leagues and a guy like Gordon went ahead of most.  A lot of people believe there are 3 or even 4 RBs that good in this year's class so they could certainly all go in the top 5.
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No way would I take Freeman or Perine (just as an example, feel free to replace with a similarly ranked RB) over Mike Williams or Corey Davis in a PPR league regardless of NFL team situation unless one is injured or caught in a bad off-the-field situation.   Having said that, I wouldn't care where Fournette is drafted by the NFL he should go 1.01 in dynasty leagues.  As for Cook, I'm bullish on him as well, but not as much as I ame with Fournette.  I also like Chubb a lot.

 
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I've got a devy orphan I took over last year where I loaded up on young WRs, elite QB and TE, and then acquired:

Fournette, Cook, Chubb, McCaffery, Perine, Barkley.

Needless to say I'm very excited.

 
JohnnyU said:
Why in the hell would someone draft / trade for all those players and orphan the league?
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I think what @ConnSKINS26 said is that he took over an orphan and then traded for all those guys, not that an orphan was taken over w/ all those players.

That being said, I've got four '17 1st round picks in my 16tm league, so I'm really interested to see where they end up.

 
eNdblu said:
I think what @ConnSKINS26 said is that he took over an orphan and then traded for all those guys, not that an orphan was taken over w/ all those players.

That being said, I've got four '17 1st round picks in my 16tm league, so I'm really interested to see where they end up.
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You are correct.  Would help if i would read the entire post

 
I think I may move Dalvin Cook up in my rankings to #2 or #3 and he may go #1 in some leagues depending on landing spot.  

 
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Before the year started i was hoping Corey Davis was going to be underrated.  Looks like that isn't going to happen :(

Curious how 32 team and 2 qb leagues will look,  really nice top 10 when QBs have value. 

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
ZWK's analysis on Treadwell has made me a believer.   His model is down on Mike Williams, thus i'm down on him.
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Why is he down on Mike Williams?  Analysis that I've read compares him to DeAndre Hopkins.  Several outlets have him as the number one receiver.  Having said that, I too was down on Treadwell, and the fact that ZWK was down on Treadwell means nothing when it comes to Williams.

 
JohnnyU said:
Why is he down on Mike Williams?  Analysis that I've read compares him to DeAndre Hopkins.  Several outlets have him as the number one receiver.  Having said that, I too was down on Treadwell, and the fact that ZWK was down on Treadwell means nothing when it comes to Williams.
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Have you looked at Hopkins' 2016 stats lately?

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Have you looked at Hopkins' 2016 stats lately?
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Brock = Bad, great WRs are brought down by bad QBs, bad blocking OL, or bad scheme.

 
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Who do you think the top 3 WRs will be in Dynasty PPR leagues?......and where do you see them going in the first round of most dynasty drafts?

 
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JohnnyU said:
Who do you think the top 3 WRs will be in Dynasty PPR leagues?......and where do you see them going in the first round of most dynasty drafts?
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Mike Williams

Corey Davis

Juju

I can't see any of them going before three, unless you were just loaded at RB, and I can't see any lasting past eight or nine.

 
Only in PPR. Even still, I think Fournette / Cook will be 1, 2 regardless of format. I think Cory Davis may be the top WR chosen in the NFL draft.

 
I personally have Cook as the clear #1. Only way I take a WR or McCaffrey over Fournette at 2 is landing place.

I'm not high on JuJu, so my Top 5 right now is Cook, Fournette, Davis, Williams and McCaffrey.

Little sad that Chubb and Westerbrook are heading back, and those 2nd round picks have taken a big hit with the players heading back so far (Michel, Hood, Freeman, Lazard, etc)

 
DexterDew said:
I personally have Cook as the clear #1. Only way I take a WR or McCaffrey over Fournette at 2 is landing place.

I'm not high on JuJu, so my Top 5 right now is Cook, Fournette, Davis, Williams and McCaffrey.

Little sad that Chubb and Westerbrook are heading back, and those 2nd round picks have taken a big hit with the players heading back so far (Michel, Hood, Freeman, Lazard, etc)
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I would put John Ross in the mix too. So maybe there is a top 6?

 
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