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***Official 2016 Election Day Thread, November 8*** (1 Viewer)

squistion

Footballguy
Thought I would start this early.

Anyone want to make a fearless prediction as to the final EC vote and/or popular vote percentages?

:popcorn:

 
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EC: 323 Clinton, 215 Trump

Battlegrounds: Clinton wins NV, NC, FL / Trump wins OH, IA

Popular vote:

Clinton 50

Trump 43

Johnson 4

Stein 2

McMullin 1

Senate 50/50

House R + 19

 
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EC: 323 Clinton, 215 Trump

Battlegrounds: Clinton wins NV, NC, FL / Trump wins OH, IA

Popular vote:

Clinton 50

Trump 43

Johnson 4

Stein 2

McMullin 1
I was coming in to the write something wrong extremely similar. I have Hillary at 325. And I think she wins Arizona so maybe I added wrong. 

 
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EC: 323 Clinton, 215 Trump

Battlegrounds: Clinton wins NV, NC, FL / Trump wins OH, IA

Popular vote:

Clinton 50

Trump 43

Johnson 4

Stein 2

McMullin 1

Senate 50/50

House R + 19
Pretty much the same as my EC prediction (324-214 Hillary), but I think the popular vote will be closer. Clinton +4, IMO. 

 
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Slate.com is going to be publishing the exit polling info of battleground states in real time.  Tuesday should be a lot of fun.
Exit polls are interesting, but you shouldn't put too much stock in them, as evidenced by those showing John Kerry winning the 2004 presidential election in states that he eventually lost and more recently with Bernie Sanders in some of this year's democratic primaries in contests that Hillary won:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/upshot/exit-polls-and-why-the-primary-was-not-stolen-from-bernie-sanders.html

 
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That said, his only hopes are lower African-American turnout for democrats than Obama got, which is probable. The African American turnout won't be nearly as high as it was when Obama motivated it. He will steal some votes there as he'll get a better percentage than Romney got, too.
He's out there kicking them in the ### to vote.  We'll see if they get it.

While enthusiasm is down, the “perceived importance” of voting for the president is higher this year than it was in 2012 — 56 percent of black voters said it was more important to vote in 2016, compared with only 8 percent who said 2012 was more important. In other words, black voters are still committed to casting their ballots this cycle.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13521854/black-early-voting-enthusiasm-down

 
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For what it's worth, two days out...

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/final-nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-national-lead-n678611

Final NBC/WSJ Poll: Clinton Holds a Four-Point National Lead Over Trump

Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of the 2016 presidential race.

Clinton gets support from 44 percent of likely voters, while Trump gets 40 percent, the poll shows. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is at 6 percent, and the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 2 percent.

 
I expect lots of pro-Hillary title changes before this is over.
You will be disappointed.

I never change titles on election related threads as I don't believe the OP should editorialize or give news updates that show bias. 

It will remain as it is.

 
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That 6% Gary Johnson, and 2% Jill Stein, still seem too high to me. 
Third parties often dip as Election Day nears and often underperform compared to the polls. 5% would be a success for Johnson. The somewhat strange thing this year is its harder to identify which major party candidate, if any, is most damaged by his votes. 

 
I'm a VLM(voting location manager) here in Ohio. I've been doing this for 8 years. At no point have I been this nervous about an election as I am right now for a huge variety of reasons. 

T&P's appreciated...?

 
A few selections from the top trending Twitter hashtag  #ElectionFinalThoughts

https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElectionFinalThoughts?src=tren&data_id=tweet%3A795712311155572737

Camila CabelloVerified account @camilacabello97 3h3 hours ago

"Your voice matters, your voice makes a difference" #ElectionFinalThoughts

Nein.Verified account @NeinQuarterly 11m11 minutes ago

Remember, friends: no matter what happens tomorrow, we'll always have each other. To make us all feel even worse. #ElectionFinalThoughts
Franklin GrahamVerified account @Franklin_Graham 1h1 hour ago


Our country is in trouble – we need to pray that God's will be done tomorrow. #ElectionFinalThoughts
Add your own Election Final Thoughts if you wish...



 
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We've had 6 robo calls already today, all from the Republican side, none from the democratic side.. Sign of desperation, or sign they think they have a chance.. :oldunsure:

 
Late national Democratic Party cash infusion suggests NC Senate race up for grabs


A national Democratic Party committee reported Monday that it put $375,000 into a late advertising buy in an attempt to boost North Carolina challenger Deborah Ross’ chances of ousting two-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr in Tuesday’s election.

Political handicappers rate the Burr-Ross race a tossup.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made a last-ditch investment of $1.5 million in four races – also devoting identical $375,000 sums to candidates in Pennsylvania, Missouri and Indiana – in its bid to outflank Republicans and recapture control of the Senate. The spending plunge in the final days of the North Carolina campaign suggest that party officials believe the heated race is still with reach for Ross, a former state legislator from Raleigh.
This is a key race for control of the Senate (the others are Missouri between Kander (D) and Blunt (R) and Indiana between Evan Bayh (D) and Todd Young (R)).  It looks like the Democrats will pick up 3 states (NH, PA, and WI) but it will leave them one vote shy of the 50 they need to regain control.

 
The Senate is going to be close
Current Republican senators will be falling over each other rushing to comfirm the current SC nominated judge if democrats win the senate tomorrow . ..Heck, I still say there is better than a 70% chance that even if they retain control, if Hillary wins the same will happen. :mellow:  

 
I don't do twitter, so I'll be interested in what Squis filters through here.
I intended this to be the standard election day thread, similar to what we saw in 2008 and 2012, so hopefully there will be news items and debate and discussion about the election, besides any Twitter related matter than either myself or others share.

Anyone is welcome to make their fearless election predictions or give their election day thoughts.

 
As long as Trump does not get elected, I'll be happy/relieved. Friday night, when things looked the worst (of course things could look much worse tomorrow night), I really had trouble sleeping due to the possibility of that guy being President. I'd never really thought about leaving the U.S. for good before, but I started considering it then. I probably still wouldn't do it, but my wife and I would probably give it some serious discussion if President Trump came to pass. She's been semi-joking about New Zealand.

I can't make any predictions, they'd just be a regurgitation of pollster data at best.

 
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Depressing to think independents favor Trump. I guess it's the whole outsider thing?
Are independents in these polls self-defined? Because if so I figure a lot are conservative types who hate the GOP establishment. That would make them obvious Trump supporters, and I bet a lot of them voted for Trump in the primaries. 

 
Perhaps not surprisingly, a very optimistic forecast from HuffPo - compared to the cautious Silver 538 projections:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94?me4cjlwzphpfu5wmi

HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215. 

For all of 2016’s craziness, that projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map. Trump should keep Arizona and Georgia, even though Clinton is likely to make it a closer-than-usual race. Iowa also seems firmly in Trump’s column. All three states are more than 85 percent likely to remain red.

Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic. New Hampshire polls have wavered recently, but the HuffPost model still predicts those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. And Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. It’s the closest in the race, according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes. [...]


Senate Outlook


The Senate is likely to shift to a Democratic majority, with 51 seats, or 50 seats and Tim Kaine as the vice presidential tie-breaker. The HuffPost model says there’s a 66 percent chance Democrats will get 51 or more seats, and a 25 percent chance the chamber ends up with each party at 50 seats. Republicans have had 54 seats to Democrats’ 46 since the 2014 midterm elections, but Democrats might get just enough seats to retake control. 

 
Sahil KapurVerified account @sahilkapur 5h5 hours ago

Election Eve polling averages

RCP: Clinton+3.2

538: Clinton+3.3

TPM: Clinton+4.5

HuffPost: Clinton+5.2

AVERAGE OF AVERAGES: Clinton+4.1
 

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