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JJ Watt (3 Viewers)

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buster05

Footballguy
What are future expectations for JJ. Is there hope for 100% recovery? Im looking to target him in a trade and wondered how others viewed him going forward.

 
I think it's a good a idea to target him for the upside but I would not be paying anything near full value.  If you can get him in a low ball offer it's worth the risk but like massraider said, back injuries are terrible.  Definitely research his issues and potential return possibilities and adjust your offer accordingly.

 
Last week, before the suspension, I traded Alshon for Watt and Treadwell. In a deal like that I'm a buyer...it really just comes down to the situation.

 
I over paid to get him, at best a 2.05 this year and next year my 1st and 2nd. which unless I have injuries will be a 1.08 and 2.08 at best. 10 team. this year will be the first time didnt make the championship game in 5 years. 

 
Yeah, he's been crapping to bed all season so far. Tough to pull him out of the lineup, but 1 point and hasn't topped 10 points in any game yet, thought to keep him in also. 

 
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Gally said:
If by "it" you mean being the most dominant defensive player in the NFL......then yes.
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I was kinda thinking retirement.  He was thinking about it last year after the back stuff.  He comes back from that, already isn't the same player, than last night's knee injury. 

 
matttyl said:
I was kinda thinking retirement.  He was thinking about it last year after the back stuff.  He comes back from that, already isn't the same player, than last night's knee injury. 
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Back and knee are two different injuries so I could see thinking more about retirement with back issues being a big concern.  I don't know the extent of the knee injury or if this type is injury is especially difficult or not.  Watt seems like the kind of guy that wouldn't want to go out like he did and will want to come back but you never know. 

 
any dynasty guys keeping him rostered till next year?  My IR spot will be Aaron Rodgers at this point, don't know if I can roster him while hurt to hope he comes back to what he was.

 
matttyl said:
any dynasty guys keeping him rostered till next year?  My IR spot will be Aaron Rodgers at this point, don't know if I can roster him while hurt to hope he comes back to what he was.
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I don't think he comes back to what he was.  If you can keep him rostered I would but if you need the spot I wouldn't have much heartburn about letting him go.  Before I just dropped him I would see if I could get anything for him.  Even a late round future pick is better than nothing if you need to drop him anyway.    

 
I'm after him in every league. He's a workout warrior, that fools not retiring. His body is deteriorating but until his injury, even without the sacks, he was top 5 in PFF DE rankings with an insane amount of pressures. There's some guys, just based on will, freak athleticism, and work ethic, can never be counted out. Steve Smith, AP, Fitz, and I'll add Watt here. Bookmark this, bet you wished you owned Watt this time next year. I traded Reuben Foster for him in a Dyno with zero hesitation. Buy, buy, buy.

Sincerely,

Jim Kramer :)

 
Robar said:
I'm after him in every league. He's a workout warrior, that fools not retiring. His body is deteriorating but until his injury, even without the sacks, he was top 5 in PFF DE rankings with an insane amount of pressures. There's some guys, just based on will, freak athleticism, and work ethic, can never be counted out. Steve Smith, AP, Fitz, and I'll add Watt here. Bookmark this, bet you wished you owned Watt this time next year. I traded Reuben Foster for him in a Dyno with zero hesitation. Buy, buy, buy.

Sincerely,

Jim Kramer :)
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I agree with your sentiment about trying to buy low on  him and my previous comment about trading him for anything was based on the situation of  you needing to cut him due to roster restrictions so you might as well get a pick for him.   That said, if I have space I would be looking to get him on the cheap but giving up Foster for him is far from getting him on the cheap.  That is a hefty price to pay and I would argue that is paying full current dynasty value or maybe even a little of an overpayment. 

Get him cheap if you can and have space but I wouldn't overpay or pay even money because it is still a risky proposition.

 
I'll politely disagree. There's less than 3 PPG difference between the current LB3 and LB42 in our format and top DE's outscore top LB's significantly. If you owned say Ingram, Bosa, and Griffen right now, even though we start 11 IDP and 21 players, you'd be nearly unbeatable. The top two LB's average 16 and 15...there's 5 DE's over 19 PPG and Lawrence is at 24 PPG. Plus you can find LB's averaging over 11 PPG on waivers like bostic, Humber, and Ray ray...no chance you're finding a top 30 DE on waivers, they are hoarded like a doomsday prepper stashes MRE's.

 
Robar said:
I'll politely disagree. There's less than 3 PPG difference between the current LB3 and LB42 in our format and top DE's outscore top LB's significantly. If you owned say Ingram, Bosa, and Griffen right now, even though we start 11 IDP and 21 players, you'd be nearly unbeatable. The top two LB's average 16 and 15...there's 5 DE's over 19 PPG and Lawrence is at 24 PPG. Plus you can find LB's averaging over 11 PPG on waivers like bostic, Humber, and Ray ray...no chance you're finding a top 30 DE on waivers, they are hoarded like a doomsday prepper stashes MRE's.
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All depends on format. In my IDP league, LBs score more than DEs. Ingram is the highest scoring DE, and there are 17 LBs with higher totals.

 
Robar said:
I'll politely disagree. There's less than 3 PPG difference between the current LB3 and LB42 in our format and top DE's outscore top LB's significantly. If you owned say Ingram, Bosa, and Griffen right now, even though we start 11 IDP and 21 players, you'd be nearly unbeatable. The top two LB's average 16 and 15...there's 5 DE's over 19 PPG and Lawrence is at 24 PPG. Plus you can find LB's averaging over 11 PPG on waivers like bostic, Humber, and Ray ray...no chance you're finding a top 30 DE on waivers, they are hoarded like a doomsday prepper stashes MRE's.
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That is a totally league centric answer.  Scoring system matters tremendously.  In my league the scores are fairly even between DL and LB with less than 1ppg separating the top 5 DL and top 5 LB.  It's very close.  Based on that I would much rather have a young Foster with lots of potential than a broken down Watt that may come back.   But that is based on my scoring system.   In the end we are probably both right for our respective situations....hahahaha

 
Robar said:
I'll politely disagree. There's less than 3 PPG difference between the current LB3 and LB42 in our format and top DE's outscore top LB's significantly. If you owned say Ingram, Bosa, and Griffen right now, even though we start 11 IDP and 21 players, you'd be nearly unbeatable. The top two LB's average 16 and 15...there's 5 DE's over 19 PPG and Lawrence is at 24 PPG. Plus you can find LB's averaging over 11 PPG on waivers like bostic, Humber, and Ray ray...no chance you're finding a top 30 DE on waivers, they are hoarded like a doomsday prepper stashes MRE's.
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That's the thing, in your format.  In mine, the DL1 would be LB15 and DL2 falls to LB23.  It's all based on your scoring system. 

Also, there is a MASSIVE jump in DL scoring this year.  I don't know why, but check this out:

2017 through 6 games
Lawrence, Demarcus DAL DE    16.4
Jordan, Cameron NOS DE    15.1
Ingram, Melvin LAC DE    14.083
Campbell, Calais JAC DE    13.083
Bosa, Joey LAC DE    12.917
Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE    11.917
Griffen, Everson MIN DE    11.5
Buckner, DeForest SFO DT    10.333
Flowers, Trey NEP DE    10.333
Okafor, Alex NOS DE    10.2

2016 through 6 games
Hunter, Danielle MIN DE    11.1
Williams, Leonard NYJ DE    10.833
Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE    10.417
Heyward, Cameron PIT DE    10.4
Joseph, Linval MIN DT    10.4
Hughes, Jerry BUF LB    10.25
Bennett, Michael SEA DE    10.2
Jordan, Cameron NOS DE    10.1
Bosa, Joey SDC DE    10
Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE    10

 
What are we seeing as the rookie pick value or startup value of Watt going forward?

Seems unlikely he gets back to being all-world, but is he still a top-12 talent or is he back into the middle of the pack now?

 
Arodin said:
What are we seeing as the rookie pick value or startup value of Watt going forward?

Seems unlikely he gets back to being all-world, but is he still a top-12 talent or is he back into the middle of the pack now?
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I wouldn't pay full value for him because of the big risk.  I could see him falling off a cliff as far as production.  If I was looking to acquire him I would go low ball offers.  If I had him I would probably look for fair value or 90% of value otherwise keep him because the upside could be there (just with added risk).  I know it doesn't really answer what pick value he has (I am not entirely sure I have decided for myself yet) but hopefully the mindset is helpful to know.

 
He's the IDP equivalent of Gronkowski.  Too risky to pay a premium for, and no reason for current owners to sell cheap.  He's too valuable for the 2-11 games a year they will get out of him to take a 3rd rounder for him.

 
Arodin said:
What are we seeing as the rookie pick value or startup value of Watt going forward?

Seems unlikely he gets back to being all-world, but is he still a top-12 talent or is he back into the middle of the pack now?
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Really hard to assess for the reasons already mentioned and DE value varies between leagues so much. 

In a dispersal last week he went after 1.10 and OJ Howard, before cousins, Mahomes, Dez Bryant and Robby Anderson 

 
who takes his snaps now? Does it matter?

have read D.J. Reader and also Charles Omenihu. 

 
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