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DeAndre Hopkins - Any hope going forward? (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
Anybody out there think that Hopkins has a chance to finish strong this season? I can't believe that a player of his caliber has been such a bust to this point. He is getting targets, but isn't doing anything with them. If he had even a mediocre qb the guy has top five talent, but Brock Osweiler may very well be one of the worst starting five qb's in the NFL.

Any Texans homers out there seeing anything (I don't get a chance to see him on a regular basis) that would lead you to believe that Hopkins could be a late season surprise? 

 
Ill go out on a limb and say Top 15 ROS.... 

Think Os develops a little-- and game script favors him a little more..

Start things off with 9-125 TD monday night. 

 
I love the player, but the passing game and to be more specific, his QB is an absolute mess. If I had to guess, I'd say he is at best a low end #2 and most likely an ok #3 going forward.

 
packer_junkie said:
Ill go out on a limb and say Top 15 ROS.... 

Think Os develops a little-- and game script favors him a little more..

Start things off with 9-125 TD monday night. 
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Is this the thread where we sit on Santa's knee and ask for the AT-AT walker weeks before we ultimately get a ton-ton?

 
Willie Neslon said:
Will back bounce next year with Romo throwing to him.
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 LOL. Oddly enough, I told a Cowboy superfan friend of mine Thursday night these exact words........... "Watch Romo end up being a Houston Texan next year".

 He does have other spots he could land, namely the Rams too, that wouldn't shock me.

 But the "it figures they would do something this stupid" thought train tells me this is exactly the type of trap the Cleveland Browns might get themselves into as well. Think about it, it has all the hallmarks of a classic  Cleveland Browns move. Overpay and or trade for an aging veteran. This fits the bill exactly to the type of brain donor move they would try and pull.

 Regardless of our speculation, Romo will likely retire a Cowboy. He made his chunk of change now, and for him to leave Dallas now would be insanity. He has a legitimate shot at a ring, even though its as a backup. I don't see anywhere else for him to go and have that immediate chance at a Super Bowl, he is already in the perfect spot.

 Even if he agreed to a massive pay cut, as its apparent Jones likes him, it really is the best place for him.

Now if his ego can set everything aside and he can be content on the bench, well that is another story.

 As far as Hopkins is concerned, his numbers should rightfully improve, but it just looks like his upside is capped. I would personally think if owners got solid-ish WR2 numbers down the stretch, then they shouldn't ##### one iota.  Its been so abysmal, I just don't see him automatically going back into elite/top 5 ish WR from here on.

 Glad I avoided him, what a God awful bust.  I wish I could say the same for Allen Robinson, but unfortunately I have him in my two biggest leagues.

At least recently, it seems there is a bit of hope for some fair numbers from Robinson here on out though.

 TZM

 
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Holding out hope. I traded for him last week for almost nothing. Brock has been awful, but my thought was Hopkins had some tough match-ups early in the year and he's getting a lot of targets. I am hoping some better match-ups can translate to WR2 numbers. 

 
Best case scenario is that he bounces back like Allen Robinson and puts up fairly solid #2 wr numbers in a bad throwing offense. Worst case scenario is that he continues on the path he is on now and is little more than a mediocre #3

 
Starting Tate, Adams and Wallace over my 1.09 pick this weekend, and going forward, until he puts up more than 5 points again (non-ppr). 

Sad state of affairs for us Hopkins owners. 

 
Please help me understand how is that Hopkins is ranked highly in this year's PPR WR ranking?  I would rather have Keenan Allen over him. 

 
Chapelboy said:
Probably cuz Osweiler is no longer there....hope abounds for all Hopkins owners.
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The 'upgrade' goes from a Yugo to maybe a Pinto. He's ####ed. The real QBs coming out next year are going to NYJ and probably CLE. He's stuck with Bob V2.

 
Aznflyer14 said:
Please help me understand how is that Hopkins is ranked highly in this year's PPR WR ranking?  I would rather have Keenan Allen over him. 
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Look at the trash QBs he's played with. Only one has been able to tank him. His QB played so bad that the team GAVE UP draft picks to get rid of him. 

 
Borden said:
Look at the trash QBs he's played with. Only one has been able to tank him. His QB played so bad that the team GAVE UP draft picks to get rid of him. 
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Very true.  Osweiler was horrific.

Counterpoint:  the prior year when he went crazy, a LOT of his yards and fantasy points came in garbage time.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Very true.  Osweiler was horrific.

Counterpoint:  the prior year when he went crazy, a LOT of his yards and fantasy points came in garbage time.
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I don't know about garbage time but when trailing yeah. He had 63/854/8 in their 9 wins that season. He 61/860/6 when they were trailing. 

In the 4th quarter he had 33/547/5. In the other 3 quarters he had 78/975/6. While he was producing well late, you can take away 25% of his game time and he would've had an "OK" season. His first three quarters of production would've had him 29th in yards, tied for 24th in catches and tied for 29th in TDs. 

 
Borden said:
I don't know about garbage time but when trailing yeah. He had 63/854/8 in their 9 wins that season. He 61/860/6 when they were trailing. 

In the 4th quarter he had 33/547/5. In the other 3 quarters he had 78/975/6. While he was producing well late, you can take away 25% of his game time and he would've had an "OK" season. His first three quarters of production would've had him 29th in yards, tied for 24th in catches and tied for 29th in TDs. 
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Good stats.  Thanks!

Yeah, doesn't mean I think he blows, but rather that he might not have top-3 upside.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Good stats.  Thanks!

Yeah, doesn't mean I think he blows, but rather that he might not have top-3 upside.
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I get what you were saying. I was mostly just looking up stats because I didn't realize he had so much late game production. Thought I would share what I found since I was staring at the numbers anyways.

 
Borden said:
I don't know about garbage time but when trailing yeah. He had 63/854/8 in their 9 wins that season. He 61/860/6 when they were trailing. 

In the 4th quarter he had 33/547/5. In the other 3 quarters he had 78/975/6. While he was producing well late, you can take away 25% of his game time and he would've had an "OK" season. His first three quarters of production would've had him 29th in yards, tied for 24th in catches and tied for 29th in TDs. 
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34% of his targets were while "trailing big" according to FBG splits, resulting in 37/539/3.

2015 was the perfect storm for Hopkins. The odds of it happening again in his career... I'm going to say <1%. He's a good, not great WR that was propped up by volume + garbage time. But he's never missed a game and looked really good when playing opposite a guy who drew double coverage a lot. If Houston can find another Andre, Hopkins' 2014 is repeatable. But with Houston's questionable QBs, I'd advise people to stop chasing 2015's points. 

 
FF Ninja said:
34% of his targets were while "trailing big" according to FBG splits, resulting in 37/539/3.

2015 was the perfect storm for Hopkins. The odds of it happening again in his career... I'm going to say <1%. He's a good, not great WR that was propped up by volume + garbage time. But he's never missed a game and looked really good when playing opposite a guy who drew double coverage a lot. If Houston can find another Andre, Hopkins' 2014 is repeatable. But with Houston's questionable QBs, I'd advise people to stop chasing 2015's points. 
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2015 was his big year. Andre wasn't there that year. Yates, Hoyer, Mallet, Weeden were his 2015 QBs. He caught a TD from all of them and had a 100 yard game with all of them. I can't see Watson being much worse than those 4 (especially when considering the lack of continuity). Obviously he's going to get the targets/volume since he's their best receiver. 

So what is the big argument? Garbage time?  Even if he only gets half of the "trailing big" production, that puts him at 93/1250/9. Which would've been good for WR9 in catches, WR9 in yards and tied for WR11 in TDs. 

Even when you discount his top 3 season, he was still about the WR10 in 2015 at 23 years old. I'm not sure what else you want from him.

 
Borden said:
2015 was his big year. Andre wasn't there that year. Yates, Hoyer, Mallet, Weeden were his 2015 QBs. He caught a TD from all of them and had a 100 yard game with all of them. I can't see Watson being much worse than those 4 (especially when considering the lack of continuity). Obviously he's going to get the targets/volume since he's their best receiver. 

So what is the big argument? Garbage time?  Even if he only gets half of the "trailing big" production, that puts him at 93/1250/9. Which would've been good for WR9 in catches, WR9 in yards and tied for WR11 in TDs. 

Even when you discount his top 3 season, he was still about the WR10 in 2015 at 23 years old. I'm not sure what else you want from him.
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That seems reasonable.  I wouldn't think a top-10 expectation is crazy.  Top-5 seems unlikely to me, and some folks evidently value him that way.

 
Borden said:
2015 was his big year. Andre wasn't there that year. Yates, Hoyer, Mallet, Weeden were his 2015 QBs. He caught a TD from all of them and had a 100 yard game with all of them. I can't see Watson being much worse than those 4 (especially when considering the lack of continuity). Obviously he's going to get the targets/volume since he's their best receiver. 

So what is the big argument? Garbage time?  Even if he only gets half of the "trailing big" production, that puts him at 93/1250/9. Which would've been good for WR9 in catches, WR9 in yards and tied for WR11 in TDs. 

Even when you discount his top 3 season, he was still about the WR10 in 2015 at 23 years old. I'm not sure what else you want from him.
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Look, you can chase those points if you want. I'm just saying it isn't wise. Hoyer played 11 games and was actually very efficient. But if you ask what's the big argument, the answer is that there isn't one. There are several medium sized arguments:

  • Hoyer (and the aggregate Houston QB of 2015) was probably better than 2017 aggregate QB
  • Houston ranked 10th in pass attempts in 2015, which I'd bet against for 2017
  • Houston ranked 30th in TE targets in 2015, but clearly shifted focus to the TE when BOB took over play calling midway through 2016
  • Hopkins is unlikely to get 65 targets while "trialing big"
  • Hopkins is unlikely to get 192 total targets
  • Elite WRs typically catch 33% of team passing TDs, so he's unlikely to repeat 11 TDs unless Houston QBs get better
 
FF Ninja said:
Look, you can chase those points if you want. I'm just saying it isn't wise. Hoyer played 11 games and was actually very efficient. But if you ask what's the big argument, the answer is that there isn't one. There are several medium sized arguments:

  • Hoyer (and the aggregate Houston QB of 2015) was probably better than 2017 aggregate QB
  • Houston ranked 10th in pass attempts in 2015, which I'd bet against for 2017
  • Houston ranked 30th in TE targets in 2015, but clearly shifted focus to the TE when BOB took over play calling midway through 2016
  • Hopkins is unlikely to get 65 targets while "trialing big"
  • Hopkins is unlikely to get 192 total targets
  • Elite WRs typically catch 33% of team passing TDs, so he's unlikely to repeat 11 TDs unless Houston QBs get better
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I think the general consensus would be that Hopkins is a mid to low WR1. Saying it isn't wise to "chase those points" I have no idea what you're saying here, in terms of your position.

The stats you use are the same. "It will be worse than 2015" but don't put anything else. What is your projection for his numbers this year?

 
I am just jumping in, but I am interested in other's projections so here is mine.

Targets- 162

Catches- 88 (Based on a 54% catch percentage. Better than last year but not up to 2015 standards.)

Yards- 1150- (Based on 13 per catch, again a mid range between the past two years.)

Tds- 9- (This is more speculation. I think the offense is over all better so he will get a few more.)

This would have been good for Wr 6 last year in ppr. Which is surprising to me. I should have looked closer but just realized that there were not as many high scoring Wr's this past year. 

 
FFN is off the rails here.  Very few of us are "chasing" anything.  I grabbed him late in the year with the expectation they would improve their QB situation at some point and Hopkins could bounce back to WR10-15 territory.  He was WR36 last year in PPR and still averaged 12.3 PPG so was a viable WR3/flex play with as atrocious as Osweiler was.  If he can add 1 catch and 15 yards per game he's in WR15 territory and add in a half dozen TD's and he's firmly in the top 10. 

 
Borden said:
I think the general consensus would be that Hopkins is a mid to low WR1. Saying it isn't wise to "chase those points" I have no idea what you're saying here, in terms of your position.

The stats you use are the same. "It will be worse than 2015" but don't put anything else. What is your projection for his numbers this year?
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I thought it was abundantly clear that I'm saying he's not a WR1. His fanboys bring up 2015 all the time like it's going to come back, but it isn't. That was a perfect storm. He does seem to have an ADP of WR11, which is still rich IMO, but people drafting him there thing they're getting a steal due to overreaction to last year's ~W36 finish. 

For 2017, I'm just spitballing here, but I'll go with 150 targets x 56% = 84 rec x 13.0 ypr = 1092 yds 8 TDs (catch rate, ypr, and TD all pretty generous)

That projection assumes 16 games. If everybody magically plays 16 games, then he's probably a mid-WR2. But looking back to last year where a lot of top players missed games (Dez, Keenan, AJG, Alshon), 84/1092/8 is probably fringe WR1/WR2. That's why it's never good to compare 16 game projections to last year's final totals. 

Also, I should point out that I don't really love static projections. If I were to give a range that I think encompasses a 90% confidence interval, I'd say 70/850/4-90/1250/10 would work (again assuming 16g). For redraft purposes, I'd rather have Keenan, Crabtree, or Tate at a fraction of the cost. I think they will put up similar (or better in the case of Keenan) fantasy ppg.

 
Hankmoody said:
FFN is off the rails here.  Very few of us are "chasing" anything.  I grabbed him late in the year with the expectation they would improve their QB situation at some point and Hopkins could bounce back to WR10-15 territory.  He was WR36 last year in PPR and still averaged 12.3 PPG so was a viable WR3/flex play with as atrocious as Osweiler was.  If he can add 1 catch and 15 yards per game he's in WR15 territory and add in a half dozen TD's and he's firmly in the top 10. 
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Adding 1 catch/game gets him to 94 rec  :rolleyes:   

Add 1 catch and 15 yards to a lot of guys and they magically jump way up the rankings. Same with adding "a half dozen TDs"... wtf... TDs don't grow on trees, man. 

And if people aren't chasing 2015 points, why does it come up so often? Next year people are going to be saying "he's just 2 years removed from 111/1536/11" then 3 years the next year.

Like you said, he was WR36 last year with 151 targets. That's insane. PPR is largely a volume (rather than performance) based scoring system and I'm just guessing but that's probably top 10 in targets for WR. Just one year ago people frequently called him "QB proof"  :lmao:   Now that we realize he's not, we should temper expectations for the Savage/Watson show in 2017 rather than reminisce about 2015.

 
Very happy to snag him mid-3rd in an FFPC draft the other day.

I don't think anyone doubts the talent, and the awfulness that was Brock last year cannot be overstated.

He was historically bad.

So especially when we're looking at WRs around his ADP, I'm drawn to the elite talent.

 
Zero creativity on offense. They don't use the RB on pass routes. That type of play frees up big plays downfield.

They just hired Jimmy Raye III. That shows a their incompetence from top to bottom. The Rayes are the worst yet somehow continue to get NFL jobs.

 
You act like 94 receptions is earth-shattering.  8 guys did that last year alone and 6 of them needed more than 150 targets to do it.  You just got done projecting him at 84/1092/8 and my numbers would put him at 94/1194/10.  You're really going to eye-roll over 10/102/2???   I  :rolleyes: your :rolleyes: .  Did you even watch him last year?  He was wide open all over the place only to have Osweiler one-hop it to him or airmail one over his head in the end zone.  Their QB was so bad they PAID the Browns a 2nd to get rid of him so they could pay more to replace him.  That's never been done in the history of the league.  It's very realistic to expect that whoever they have under center can at least competently hit a wide open target.

I like how when people bring up his perfect storm of 2015 you pick a fight with them about it but your only factual rebuttal is to rely on the single season perfect storm of how bad Osweilier was.  Fact is this is an unwritten book.  We have one monster year of unsustainable targets and one year (for WR3 numbers, btw, nice floor there) of unsustainably bad QB play.

People bring up 2015 because he did it, which is something guys like Crabtree, Tate, or Keenan never have.  That doesn't mean we're chasing those points, it just means he's more likely than most to see it happen again, however unlikely the actual result may be.  We don't know what he'll do with another competent QB, but that ceiling is certainly higher than anything those other donkeys have shown and is worth some small premium built into his price. 

 
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Hankmoody said:
You act like 94 receptions is earth-shattering.  8 guys did that last year alone and 6 of them needed more than 150 targets to do it.  You just got done projecting him at 84/1092/8 and my numbers would put him at 94/1194/10.  You're really going to eye-roll over 10/102/2???   I  :rolleyes: your :rolleyes: .  Did you even watch him last year?  He was wide open all over the place only to have Osweiler one-hop it to him or airmail one over his head in the end zone.  Their QB was so bad they PAID the Browns a 2nd to get rid of him so they could pay more to replace him.  That's never been done in the history of the league.  It's very realistic to expect that whoever they have under center can at least competently hit a wide open target.

I like how when people bring up his perfect storm of 2015 you pick a fight with them about it but your only factual rebuttal is to rely on the single season perfect storm of how bad Osweilier was.  Fact is this is an unwritten book.  We have one monster year of unsustainable targets and one year (for WR3 numbers, btw, nice floor there) of unsustainably bad QB play.

People bring up 2015 because he did it, which is something guys like Crabtree, Tate, or Keenan never have.  That doesn't mean we're chasing those points, it just means he's more likely than most to see it happen again, however unlikely the actual result may be.  We don't know what he'll do with another competent QB, but that ceiling is certainly higher than anything those other donkeys have shown and is worth some small premium built into his price. 
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Um, 10/102/2 is 2.0 pgg more, so yeah, it's no small thing. And yes, I watched him last year - the Texans are my team. I've never been that impressed with him. I saw all the circumstantial points in 2015 and I saw AJ drawing double coverage in 2013 and 2014. As a homer, I wanted him to be great, but what I've seen hasn't matched up with what fantasy footballers talk about. He's not elite. He's Crabtree. Moderate speed, excellent hands and routes.

People who bring up 2015 are blind with their bias. I don't use 2016 as my only defense. I told people 2015 was a fluke WHILE it was happening. I told anyone who would listen to avoid Hopkins at his price in 2016. Crabtree hasn't ever had a Hopkins 2015 season because perfect storms are rare. Hopkins got lucky. Crabtree didn't. :shrug:  Remember that time Dwayne Bowe finished WR2 overall while catching passes from Matt Cassell? Was it because he was elite? Maybe Bowe was QB-proof? Much like Bowe's 2010, Hopkins won't ever do 2015 again, but people will be chasing those points for another couple seasons while continuing to use the word "elite" to describe him. 

I know you're invested heavily in him and you want elite to happen, but that perfect storm is never coming back. If you draft him at WR11 this year, you're drafting him at his ceiling.

 
FF Ninja said:
Um, 10/102/2 is 2.0 pgg more, so yeah, it's no small thing. And yes, I watched him last year - the Texans are my team. I've never been that impressed with him. I saw all the circumstantial points in 2015 and I saw AJ drawing double coverage in 2013 and 2014. As a homer, I wanted him to be great, but what I've seen hasn't matched up with what fantasy footballers talk about. He's not elite. He's Crabtree. Moderate speed, excellent hands and routes.

People who bring up 2015 are blind with their bias. I don't use 2016 as my only defense. I told people 2015 was a fluke WHILE it was happening. I told anyone who would listen to avoid Hopkins at his price in 2016. Crabtree hasn't ever had a Hopkins 2015 season because perfect storms are rare. Hopkins got lucky. Crabtree didn't. :shrug:  Remember that time Dwayne Bowe finished WR2 overall while catching passes from Matt Cassell? Was it because he was elite? Maybe Bowe was QB-proof? Much like Bowe's 2010, Hopkins won't ever do 2015 again, but people will be chasing those points for another couple seasons while continuing to use the word "elite" to describe him. 

I know you're invested heavily in him and you want elite to happen, but that perfect storm is never coming back. If you draft him at WR11 this year, you're drafting him at his ceiling.
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As always, this is useful comment.  :thumbup:

 
https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/deandre-hopkins-advanced-stats-metrics-analytics-profile/

We have already established that DeAndre Hopkins is a volume-dependent wide receiver because of his low YAC rate over the last two seasons. If DeShaun Watson becomes Hopkins’ quarterback, there is reason for concern. Wide receiver Mike Williams, first round draft pick of the Los Angeles Chargers, was the touted No. 1 wide receiver for the Clemson Tigers. With Watson at the helm, Williams managed just a 27.0-percent (41st-percentile) College Dominator Rating. We can’t say for certain what Watson will do at the professional level, but we know that last year he didn’t shower his primary WR with targets.
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For those of you who claim a bounceback year from Hopkins this year, I highly recommend to read the above link.  

 
Bump.  I'm trying to evaluate Nuk in dynasty.  He's been a WR1 except last year with Osweiller.  Haven't watched a lot of games. 

 
In his 3 games with Savage last year, he averaged 6 catches for 84 yards on 11 targets per game.  Translate his Savage games to a whole season and that's 96-1350.  Gotta think he's worth a 3rd round pick at that?

 
Deamon said:
In his 3 games with Savage last year, he averaged 6 catches for 84 yards on 11 targets per game.  Translate his Savage games to a whole season and that's 96-1350.  Gotta think he's worth a 3rd round pick at that?
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Are you counting week 17 where savage threw 25 yards total?

 
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