jaybny2
Footballguy
I'm a long time FFPC/FPC player, and have been trying to put my finger on something for a while. I've finally figured it out. I believe there is a slight problem with current playoff seeding. Please hear me out..
First I will state my assumption as to the reason and motivations behind the current playoff seed algorithm. Then I will show the problem with the current algorithm, and provide an alternative algorithm that more closely reflects the afformentioned assumptions on the motivation. Lastly, I will show the hidden gotcha in the current (seemingly simple and intuitive) system.
A) Current Algorithm for deciding which 4 teams make the playoffs:
B) Assumed motivations and reasoning:
Way back in the day, playoff seeding was exactly like the NFL. Top 4 team records (after tie breakers), make the playoffs. This would sometimes cause the team with the highest number of points to miss the playoffs due entirety to bad luck.
After the top in points and the top in h2h record are in the playoffs, we then want to reward wins and losses over points. (Someone that goes 8-3 with 1800 points, should get the last playoff spot over someone that is 6-5 with 1810 points!)
C) Problem by Example:
Current seeding created some weird and un-intended side effect, that in effect give much more weight to total-points than to h2h record.
Example1 shows how this is intended to work - Team5 (4 seed) makes the playoffs with 2nd highest point total.
Example1:
Team1 9-2 1800 (1 seed)
Team2 8-3 2000 (2 seed)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3 seed)
Team4 6-5 1500
Team5 5-6 1900 (4 seed)
Team6 5-6 1650
** Now look what happens when we add 1 win to Team2 ***
Example2 shows how this was not intended to work - Team3 with third best record, loses to Team6 with 4th in total points!
Example2:
Team2 9-2 2000 (1 seed)
Team1 9-2 1800 (3 seed)
Team3 7-4 1600
Team4 6-5 1500
Team5 5-6 1900 (2 seed)
Team6 5-6 1650 (4 seed)
By just looking at the standings, Example1 and Example2 are almost identical. The only thing different is that in Example1, Team2 had 8 wins, and in Example2 , Team2 has 9 wins!
D) Solution
Here is an alternative that will generate the same playoff teams in Example2 as in Example1.
New Algorithm for deciding which 4 teams make the playoffs**:
New Example1 shows the same 4 playoffs teams as before.
New Example1 standings:
Team1 9-2 1800 (1st h2h , 3rd points)
Team2 8-3 2000 (2nd h2h, 1st points)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3rd h2h, 5th points)
Team4 6-5 1500 (4th h2h, 6th points)
Team5 5-6 1900 (5th h2h, 2nd points)
Team6 5-6 1650 (6th h2h, 4th points)
New Example1 playoffs:
Team1 (1st h2h) - playoff seed 1
Team2 (1st points) - playoff seed 2
Team2 (2nd h2h)
Team5 (2nd points) - playoff seed 3
Team3 (3rd h2h) - playoff seed 4
Team1 (3rd points)
Team4 (4th h2h)
Team6 (4th points)
New Example2 shows the same teams making playoffs as in Example1!! As intented!
New Example2 standings:
Team2 9-2 2000 (1st h2h , 1st points)
Team1 9-2 1800 (2nd h2h, 3rd points)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3rd h2h, 5th points)
Team4 6-5 1500 (4th h2h, 6th points)
Team5 5-6 1900 (5th h2h, 2nd points)
Team6 5-6 1650 (6th h2h, 4th points)
New Example1 playoffs:
Team2 (1st h2h) - playoff seed 1
Team2 (1st points)
Team1 (2nd h2h) - playoff seed 2
Team5 (2nd points) - playoff seed 3
Team3 (3rd h2h) - playoff seed 4
Team1 (3rd points)
Team4 (4th h2h)
Team6 (4th points)
E) Gotcha
The current algorithm seems fair and straight forward, but it is in fact giving much more weight to total-points over head-2-head.
Look at Team1 and Team2 in Example2, they both have a 9-2 record. So why is Team2 the number 1 seed in the h2h standing? Its the tie breaker! The Tie breaker is Total Points already! By using total points as the h2h tie breaker, we just negated any advantage to choosing h2h in 1 and 3 seed. In fact, since there are ties in almost every league in h2h and never any ties in total points, we are in effect choosing the 4th highest in points over the 3rd best h2h record!
Currently, there is a lopsided reward for points over wins, so much so that the correct strategy is to only draft and roster to maximize total points. If this is intended, then I would suggest we eliminate Head-2-Head all together and just use total points. However, if this was not intended, then I believe this new seeding will give us the intended results.
-------------------------------------
Would love to know your thoughts and can explain further. I'm suggesting we make this change for 2017.
First I will state my assumption as to the reason and motivations behind the current playoff seed algorithm. Then I will show the problem with the current algorithm, and provide an alternative algorithm that more closely reflects the afformentioned assumptions on the motivation. Lastly, I will show the hidden gotcha in the current (seemingly simple and intuitive) system.
A) Current Algorithm for deciding which 4 teams make the playoffs:
- Team with best h2h record
- Next team highest total points
- Next team with best h2h record
- Next team with highest total points
B) Assumed motivations and reasoning:
Way back in the day, playoff seeding was exactly like the NFL. Top 4 team records (after tie breakers), make the playoffs. This would sometimes cause the team with the highest number of points to miss the playoffs due entirety to bad luck.
- Current Algorithm ensured that the top 2 in points would make the playoffs. This makes the game more fair and removes some of the luck factors in head-2-head records.
After the top in points and the top in h2h record are in the playoffs, we then want to reward wins and losses over points. (Someone that goes 8-3 with 1800 points, should get the last playoff spot over someone that is 6-5 with 1810 points!)
- Current Algorithm give the nod to h2h over points by seeding best records before best points. Seed 1 is h2h before seed 2 of points, and the same for seeds 3 and 4.
C) Problem by Example:
Current seeding created some weird and un-intended side effect, that in effect give much more weight to total-points than to h2h record.
Example1 shows how this is intended to work - Team5 (4 seed) makes the playoffs with 2nd highest point total.
Example1:
Team1 9-2 1800 (1 seed)
Team2 8-3 2000 (2 seed)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3 seed)
Team4 6-5 1500
Team5 5-6 1900 (4 seed)
Team6 5-6 1650
** Now look what happens when we add 1 win to Team2 ***
Example2 shows how this was not intended to work - Team3 with third best record, loses to Team6 with 4th in total points!
Example2:
Team2 9-2 2000 (1 seed)
Team1 9-2 1800 (3 seed)
Team3 7-4 1600
Team4 6-5 1500
Team5 5-6 1900 (2 seed)
Team6 5-6 1650 (4 seed)
By just looking at the standings, Example1 and Example2 are almost identical. The only thing different is that in Example1, Team2 had 8 wins, and in Example2 , Team2 has 9 wins!
D) Solution
Here is an alternative that will generate the same playoff teams in Example2 as in Example1.
New Algorithm for deciding which 4 teams make the playoffs**:
- 1st place team in h2h standing
- 1st place team in points standing
- 2nd place team in h2h standing
- 2nd place team in points standing
- 3rd place team in h2h standing
- 3rd place team in points standing
- 4th place team in h2h standing
- 4th place team in points standing
New Example1 shows the same 4 playoffs teams as before.
New Example1 standings:
Team1 9-2 1800 (1st h2h , 3rd points)
Team2 8-3 2000 (2nd h2h, 1st points)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3rd h2h, 5th points)
Team4 6-5 1500 (4th h2h, 6th points)
Team5 5-6 1900 (5th h2h, 2nd points)
Team6 5-6 1650 (6th h2h, 4th points)
New Example1 playoffs:
Team1 (1st h2h) - playoff seed 1
Team2 (1st points) - playoff seed 2
Team2 (2nd h2h)
Team5 (2nd points) - playoff seed 3
Team3 (3rd h2h) - playoff seed 4
Team1 (3rd points)
Team4 (4th h2h)
Team6 (4th points)
New Example2 shows the same teams making playoffs as in Example1!! As intented!
New Example2 standings:
Team2 9-2 2000 (1st h2h , 1st points)
Team1 9-2 1800 (2nd h2h, 3rd points)
Team3 7-4 1600 (3rd h2h, 5th points)
Team4 6-5 1500 (4th h2h, 6th points)
Team5 5-6 1900 (5th h2h, 2nd points)
Team6 5-6 1650 (6th h2h, 4th points)
New Example1 playoffs:
Team2 (1st h2h) - playoff seed 1
Team2 (1st points)
Team1 (2nd h2h) - playoff seed 2
Team5 (2nd points) - playoff seed 3
Team3 (3rd h2h) - playoff seed 4
Team1 (3rd points)
Team4 (4th h2h)
Team6 (4th points)
E) Gotcha
The current algorithm seems fair and straight forward, but it is in fact giving much more weight to total-points over head-2-head.
Look at Team1 and Team2 in Example2, they both have a 9-2 record. So why is Team2 the number 1 seed in the h2h standing? Its the tie breaker! The Tie breaker is Total Points already! By using total points as the h2h tie breaker, we just negated any advantage to choosing h2h in 1 and 3 seed. In fact, since there are ties in almost every league in h2h and never any ties in total points, we are in effect choosing the 4th highest in points over the 3rd best h2h record!
Currently, there is a lopsided reward for points over wins, so much so that the correct strategy is to only draft and roster to maximize total points. If this is intended, then I would suggest we eliminate Head-2-Head all together and just use total points. However, if this was not intended, then I believe this new seeding will give us the intended results.
-------------------------------------
Would love to know your thoughts and can explain further. I'm suggesting we make this change for 2017.
