Draftkings Week 12 (1 Viewer)

Might as well start this off. 

Been looking through and noticing difference in pricing for guys I like this week. 

QBs: 

Really like Wilson on FD, but he is fairly priced here.  However the one that stands out is Carr at 6100 at home vs. Carolina.  That secondary has been burnt a lot this year, and Cooper/Crabtree should be able to have a great day vs. that group. 

Palmer is a damn good gpp play at only 5300.  Sure he has had a rough year, but that Atl D is bad and Ryan is good enough to make Az play catch up for the day. 

RBs:

Will probably be going with a fresh off the bye Mr. Gordon.  Cheaper than Murray and Ajayi this week and only 100 more than McCoy, and has shown to be pretty matchup proof.  Probably start with him and DJ and see where that takes me. 

For cheap RBs, T.West looks like a good bet at 4000 (don't know why he's this cheap).  Balt is at home and facing Cinci who just lost 2 of their main receiving options. 

Couple others that stood out for gpp flex: 

Hyde at 4800.  On the road, but is getting healthier than Chip really wants to give his Rb the ball.  Had 20+ touches last week as he gets healthier.  Miami is averaging the 3rd most yds/game rushing on the year and 4.3yd/carry.  You can do worse at this price range. 

D.Lewis at 4000 is a perfect gpp flex, IMO.  They are easing him in, but all he needs is 10 touches to rip off a big TD.  25 yds rushing and 4 for 40yds receiving with a TD is well within the possible outcomes for him, and that gets your 4x. 

Other gpp ideas: Ware vs. Denver (they have allowed an average of 133 yds/g over their last 4 games), and Gurley vs. NO

WRs:

They seemed to have made the WR pricing a bit harder this week.  Three in the 5000s that I still like are Shepard (5500), Pryor (5600), and R.Matthews (5800).  6000s there are some good options still with Crabtree, Edelman, S.Smith, M.Thomas, and Baldwin. 

As far as cheaper/gpp options, I will be staring long and hard at the AZ WRs.  The 3 not named Fitz are all in the 4000s, and I think Az will be forced to take to the air this week a bit.  Since I like Wilson a bit this week again vs. TB I will also be looking to see if Lockett or Kearse are in play, as both are in the 3000s. 

TEs:

Unless I wrote that down wrong, I think Kelce is way too cheap at 4000.  Sure it's against Denver, but how else are they going to attempt to move the ball?  Since McCown is a go, that means Barnidge is in consideration at 3600.  I also like Brate at 3100 and McDonald at 3000.  Winston will be looking for somebody if Seattle can negate Evans, and Chip really seems to like to get his TE in the game. 

Def:

Like I said in the FD post, I like Denver, Buffalo, Balt and NO this week.   Gpp D is probably KC, as that game just might be a low scoring D battle. 

Ok, my early cash LU for Thurs/Mon is looking like this right now............

Carr-Bell-Gordon-Coop-J. Matthews-J. Brown-Bennett-Hill-Tenn

Carr is going to have to throw the ball to stay in the game with Carolina, as they shouldn't be able to run well. I like Coop for same reason. I also like Cam/Kelvin, but this side was cheaper and I think just as valuable. 

Bell is going to kill Indy. It was between Ajayi and Gordon for me, going with Gordon because I think he will catch the ball also, plus coming of bye week. 

J. Matthews is going up against a bad GB secondary and so is J. Brown. Both are in fairly high scoring games. I think this is the week Bennett comes back out. Everyone will be off him after last week. Hill is going to get all the work in Cincy now with Bernard out. It isn't a great matchup but he should easily reach value. Tennessee gets Matt Barkey, enough said.....

What is evryone doing for the Thursday only lineups ?  Usually short slates it's easy to get everyone you want but not so this one.

QB - Big Ben is the easy choice as he owns the Colts but I am liking Cousins and the flexibility his $5900 price tag gives you. Probably do one line up with each.

RB - Bell could easily be 30+ against the Colts, liking Gore at $5200 with Luck out the Colts are going to be a lot of runs and short passes. Hoping for 5 or 6 catches and maybe a TD to go along with the 75 to 80 yards on the ground. I'm going to fade Riddick due to the combo of being banged up and playing the Vikings D. If I need a punt Rob Kelley at $4300 albeit in a game I expect the redskins to trail is an interesting option.

WR - If you don't play Big Ben you need to play AB at least in cash games to have one part of that option. Diggs as long as he is good to go is a PPR monster. Crowder and Garcon free up cash and Tate is a good mid tier choice.

TE - Witten seems like the best value play and I like vale plays at TE. Reed will likely outscore him but will it be by enough to make up the cost.

D - Steelers as long as Luck doesn't play

So, the E-valuator pointed to starting Dak and Cousins on DK this week so I focused on that game for a couple LUS. 

Here is a Cousins stack idea:

Cousins - Zeke/Bell - Brown/Garcon/Boldin - Witten - C.Thompson - Minn

Or

Cousins - Zeke/Bell - Crowder/tate/Hamilton - Reed - Witten - Pitt

Here is a game stack going the other way:

Dak - Bell/Riddick - Dez/D.Jackson/Rogers - Reed - Witten - Pitt

I like the Thompson call, I was thinking of going with him also since it is a GPP. Everyone will be on Kelley after last week, and I have seen Thompson have some really nice games catching passes out of the backfield. I really think anyone of the pass catchers on the Lions could be a good call in a GPP besides Tate. Who knows when they start throwing it back to Marvin or Ebron goes off. Ebron has actually been doing well. 

I guess the key is getting lucky and picking that right guy to go with the other chalk guys....................

I also like the thought of Pivoting off of Reed to Vernon Davis! 

Made some final changes to my thur/mon cash

Carr-Bell-DJ-JM-Coop-Boyd-Kelce-Cook-Tenn

I like Gordon a lot this week, but just feel like DJ is a must play, he is capable of 40 points, and going against a terrible rush defense. 

Kelce is just much safer than Bennett. Bennett might go off, but who knows. KC doesn't have much else to throw too, and the WR will be covered by good secondary players. Boyd should see the targets. I think they will be behind and have to pass, which takes me off Hill a little. Cook is kind of a punt, but he was seeing targets last week in a good offense that will be throwing the ball. 

I am looking at 30+ from Bell and DJ. 25+ from Carr, and around 20 from Coop, which is 105+ from my big four. If I can get an avg of 10 from the other five positions, I should be fine. 

podunker said:

I like the Thompson call, I was thinking of going with him also since it is a GPP. Everyone will be on Kelley after last week, and I have seen Thompson have some really nice games catching passes out of the backfield. I really think anyone of the pass catchers on the Lions could be a good call in a GPP besides Tate. Who knows when they start throwing it back to Marvin or Ebron goes off. Ebron has actually been doing well. 

I guess the key is getting lucky and picking that right guy to go with the other chalk guys....................

I also like the thought of Pivoting off of Reed to Vernon Davis! 

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That's what I figure.  It's just going to be that one odd guy that goes off, or a Def we didn't plug in that somebody else did for these contests.  That's why I threw Thompson in one, and went with a guy like Hamilton who seems to be in that Wheaton role and saw a RZ target last week.

Looking over my LUs I noticed there are a few guys that I faded for whatever reason on both sites combined.  I have 0 Stafford.  I don't think he does well vs. Minny overall.  This is probably a mistake, but I don't have any R.Kelley either.  I think when I looked at the game I didn't like that he has 0 output in the passing game, and all the other main guys do.  So I figured if Wash does get behind or in a shootout, they might throw a few to Thompson. 

I have him in a FD LU or two, so I actually went from Tate to Thielen in that one I posted above.  I also went with a 2nd Dak stack with Cole and Witten with Jackson and Garcon coming back the other way. 

For whatever reason, I think the old guys Witten and Boldin just feel like Thanksgiving day plays. 

Well.....I looked at who I think will win in each game and tried to build LU's with that. I think Dallas, Pitts, and Detroit will win. I have a LU with Bradford and Stafford with a mix of how I think the game will go. Trying to tell a story with my LU as they say. 

I feel like Detroit gets up early with a sack fumble of Bradford on the first series and then they get in the end zone with a pass to Ebron. Minn. comes back out and can't stop the pass rush and has to punt. Stafford throws a deep ball to Marvin for a quick strike and now Minn is down 14. They exchange possessions without scoring one time each. Bradford has to come out and start throwing to get back in the game, but has to throw quick to keep the pass rush off. Lots of dink and dunk passes to move down the field and finally finds Rudolph in the end zone at the end of the first quarter. Second quarter begins and Detroit tries run a little with no luck after two series trying. Same for Vikings. Detroit changes tactics and start throwing the short stuff to Riddick and Tate. The drive stalls out and they end up kicking a Prater FG. Bradford gets the ball back and they still can't run the ball and he gets sacked on third down to back them up. After punt, Detroit has good field position, but can't do anything with the ball after one first down running. They try a long FG and make it. Bradford gets the ball late in the second and moves down the field with the Lions playing prevent defense. Thielen catching a lot of short passes. They make it to FG range and kick a FG. Detroit 20-10 at half.  Minn. kicks off and starts putting more pressure on Stafford. They punt the ball to Minn. On 3rd and 4, Patterson runs a WR screen, and breaks it off for a 70 yard TD. Nothing much happens the rest of the third, but Detroit gets another Prater FG to end the 3rd. 23-17 Detroit end of Third. Bradford has to pass because they can't run on the Lions. He and Stafford are both over 200 yards passing at this point. But a lot of short stuff with tackles being made. This same action continues in the 4th, but with drives stalling out until the middle of the 4th when Prater gets another FG for Detroit. On the kickoff to the Vikings, Patterson finds a seam and bang he is gone. They decide to go for two to tie it up and hit Thielen on short crosser. Tie game with a little less than half the quarter to go. Stafford gets the ball back and once again Marvin gets behind the Vikings Defense for a long gain, he doesn't get in the end zone, but they kick another Prater FG. Vikings get ball back and move to just out of FG range on a 4th and 1. They go for it, and Detroit stops them. Stafford moves the ball into FG range for Detroit and the drive stalls out at the 2 minute warning. Detroit decides to kick a FG. The Vikings have been watching every other team in the league jump the center and they do the same and block the FG try and recover the ball at their own 29 yard line. Bradford moves them down the field with short passes to Rudolph/Diggs/Thielen and they stall out at the Detroit 22 with 30 seconds left in the game. They kick a FG to tie the game back up. Detroit gets the kickoff and runs a screen pass to Riddick for a twenty yard gain right out go the shoot. Now close to mid field, they hit Ebron on a seam route to the Vikings 30. They attempt a couple short passes with no luck. They set up to kick the game winner............and Prater misses. On to OT...............................

Have a fantastic Thanksgiving everyone......hope someone hits a big one!

Not exactly like I said, but a nice start for Stafford and Boldin!

podunker said:

Not exactly like I said, but a nice start for Stafford and Boldin!

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Figures Asiata would get is 5yds and TD today too. 

Well how is everyone doing with the Thanksgiving GPP's. Not doing that great overall, but do have 2 LUs setting a 135 and 140 with Bell and Pitt Defense to go. They may have a chance of winning a little cash. 

Hope someone else is bringing home the bacon on turkey day!

podunker said:

Well how is everyone doing with the Thanksgiving GPP's. Not doing that great overall, but do have 2 LUs setting a 135 and 140 with Bell and Pitt Defense to go. They may have a chance of winning a little cash. 

Hope someone else is bringing home the bacon on turkey day!

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Will have to look when i get home but I did have a few Cousins/Bell/Zeke/Reed LUs sprinkled on both sites.  0 clue who I ended up pairing with them though. 

KarmaPolice said:

Will have to look when i get home but I did have a few Cousins/Bell/Zeke/Reed LUs sprinkled on both sites.  0 clue who I ended up pairing with them though. 

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I would say that is a great start! 

I did also, and I haven't looked, but it seems like you had to have some pretty cheap WR's to have Reed at TE. Trying to think if any cheap guys did very well. I know Bolding had a decent day and was one of the cheap ones I used. Seems like I had Patterson on some also. DJax probably had the best day I am guessing of the cheaper guys. AB is Killing it right now if you had him. 

Well, more than doubled my $ on DK, so can't complain.  Also got what I think was my highest score yet on DK at 185.16.  I think there were a lot of people with the core 4-5 players that went off, so you had to get the small guys right like we thought.  That one got $20 on my $3 entry.  Overall had $23 in, and ended up with $51.  Best LU was:

Cousins - Bell/Zeke - Boldin/Crowder/Thielen - Reed - Witten - Pitt

Winning gpp in the $3 mini Wishbone had Asiata as Rb2 surprisingly. 

I ended up clearing $50 dollars on my Thanksgiving GPP's, (B-53 and W-103) Won $25 in the $3 Play Action with a score of 178. 

My best LU was Cousins-Bell/Zeke - AB/Garcon/Jackson-Witten-Allen-Pitts

I also scored 178 with another LU with Reed and Beasley/Garcon/Jackson  and Reed in flex instead of Allen in the 3 Plate Special that got me another $25 so those two carried me to profit. Broke even on the rest. 

I actually did better on FD today.........which surprised me. 

Fun Thanksgiving Day I hope everyone else had a great day also..........on to the weekend!!! Well after I go to the bathroom 20 times!!!!

Ended up a $1 profit, but I played light a couple $1 GPP's, a $5 double up and a $5 six person league a friend ran. Used two different lineps, 152.76 cashed in the double up and one GPP, 132.24 in the other two was a loser.

I play on DraftKings in a league for $3 a week. There are 12 of us and we pay top 2.  I have won 4 of the 11 weeks. That is the most in the league. I just use the interactive value chart here on football guys for help. It seems to be working. I picked a few players I like and their matchups then let them help me fill it in

Would there be any other tips you guys might have to help me stay a top my league? Maybe some dos and donts of DFS. Thanks 

Having a tough time figuring out WR and TE this week and less locked into my lineup than I usually am on Friday night. Also going back and forth between Carr and Wilson at QB. Good chance I switch up quite a bit by Sunday, but here's where I'm at now:

Carr

DJ-Gordon-Rawls

Baldwin-D. Parker-Boyd

Kelce

Titans

Dan Hindery said:

Having a tough time figuring out WR and TE this week and less locked into my lineup than I usually am on Friday night. Also going back and forth between Carr and Wilson at QB. Good chance I switch up quite a bit by Sunday, but here's where I'm at now:

Carr

DJ-Gordon-Rawls

Baldwin-D. Parker-Boyd

Kelce

Titans

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I like it.  I am with you on the WR, especially WR3 and TE.  I posted that I love Kelce's price on DK this week, I think it was the Exposed article by Rudnicki and that Kelce doesn't have good stats vs. Denver (something like averaging 3-40 over last 3 games?). 

I keep coming back to the cheap TEs again this week with guys like Barnidge, CJ Fied, Brate, and Tye. 

Another thing that has been fun is trying to figure out where the scoring is going to come from for the teams with the top implied team totals for the week (I do like to compare and use the game predictor, esp for gpps ideas). 

NE - always a mess, and usually not who we think it is.  I will put together a couple Brady stacks and mix up the targets.  I have a lot of Edelman in cash, so on DK I have a Brady/Lewis/Bennett stack and a Brady/Lewis/Mitchell stack I am looking at right now. 

Atl - last I looked, I think this is the highest implied total of the week.  I feel like everybody is on DJ and Fitz in this game, but people are staying away from Atl.  AZ's D is pretty damn good, so therein lies the problem.  Julio is always a gpp option, and he and Ryan might be low owned this week.  If Peterson takes care of Julio for the most part, I guess that leaves
Sanu who is cheap on DK and the RBs catching passes?  AZ is 27th in Qb points allowed/game, 31st for RB, 20th for WR, and 32nd for TE in the last 4-5 weeks. 

Buff - Another tough one for me.  I guess with Gileslee out, all signs point to McCoy here, but will he get a full load?  Jax has been pretty decent vs. the pass and WR lately, and Buffalo's WRs are a MASH unit right now anyway.  Maybe Taylor will run a little more this week, and Jax can be exploited with the TE as well. 

My Cash core of the last 2 LU this week: I will be happy with any of these plays. 

QB- Carr, Cam, Arod, Wilson, Palmer ( 2 of these, just not sure yet, already have Carr going in Thur/Mon slate)

RB1- DJ, Gordon, Ajayi, Rawls

RB2-Howard, Jennings, Hill, Smallwood

WR1-OBJ, Cooper, Evans, Edel, Fitz

WR2/3-SS, Baldwin, J. Matt, Parker, Floyd, Boyd

TE-Graham, Walker, Olsen, Cook, Hooper, Ertz, Cook

I list a lot more because of the flex spot. I like to put a RB2 in that spot most weeks, but depends on salary space. I am wanting to put Rawls in that spot this week, but don't know if I can make it work. DJ and Gordon are the cream of the crop at RB this week and i will probably have them in both LU's. I am liking the WR2/3 group this week, so may not have any studs at WR. Also liking the lower end TE's this week. Kind of have too look that way with the top RB's in. 

QB- Carr

RB- DJ, Gordon

WR- Baldwin, Parker, J Mathews

TE- CJ Fied

Flex- Jennings 

D- Titans 

Just a $3 league with 12 of my friends 

chasyone said:

QB- Carr

RB- DJ, Gordon

WR- Baldwin, Parker, J Mathews

TE- CJ Fied

Flex- Jennings 

D- Titans 

Just a $3 league with 12 of my friends 

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@chasyone

I really like this one, and saw your question above.  Were you looking to enter more/different contests, or just maybe a little more success in your 12 man league?

The only thing that comes to mind as far as the lineup you are putting in and getting a little more pop to it is to throw in a stack of some sort maybe.  Ideas would be to pair Carr with Crabtree over Baldwin or if you think the Tenn D will take care of Chicago, maybe pair them with D.Murr instead of Gordon?  Little things like that could give your LU a boost if they go the way you think. 

That said, it sounds like you are doing fine in your league, and you probably don't have to change much, if anything. 

Thanks for the response. Yea I have entered some $1ggp and some $1 50/50 but always use same LU in all cause afraid to switch up and it cost me.

why would you team a def with a RB? Is that what most do? Is that strategy or preference?

should I try to stack every week in my league?

chasyone said:

Thanks for the response. Yea I have entered some $1ggp and some $1 50/50 but always use same LU in all cause afraid to switch up and it cost me.

why would you team a def with a RB? Is that what most do? Is that strategy or preference?

should I try to stack every week in my league?

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@chasyone

Seems like you are doing well with what you are doing in that league.  I would say to look at it if there is a Qb you really like on the week.  Basically if your QB goes off, one or two of his WRs/Te will go with him.  Ie this week maybe Carr/Cooper or Winston with Baldwin in your lineup (if you like those guys).  It just might get you a little pop in your LU to take you closer to the top instead of spreading your points around. 

Stacking is just a way to get more of the games/situations you like.  The typical ones are the QB/#1 target stack, but the theory goes the same for the Rb/Def.  A lot of times they have a good game because their D plays well, causing turnovers, they have control of the clock, and they are running it in the 4th Q.  There are a lot of games this week that seem to be "big favorite, low total, run the ball games" - Buffalo, Denver, Miami, Tenn, come to mind.  Most of those are also pretty high on the IVC for projections along with their RB.

As far as the other stuff, if you are just getting your feet wet, stick to those $1 games.  The lineup that you posted is great for those 50/50, 2x games.  Typically people enter in players from different games to minimize the risk if the game goes different from expected.  The gpps are a little riskier and typically people will enter slightly different LUs hoping that they will be one of the few with that combo or player.  So stacks and triple stacks come into play (Brady/Edelman/Bennett) or even a game stack (Carr/Cooper + Olsen from Carolina) hoping for a shootout.  More risk you don't make the cut, but if that game goes how you want, you climb farther up the boards. 

Thank a lot. I will be looking forward to this forum every week. Thanks again 

Well, here is my weekly 3 stud RB LU:

Kaepernick

DJ/D.Murray

Pryor/Boyd/S.Roberts

Graham

Gordon

Tenn

Thinking about this one too to attack that Az/Atl game.  I keep going back to thinking that Hyde's price is too cheap on DK for a workhorse back like that as well.  Not really sure about going with Palmer, so I am still working on a similar thing with Ryan as well, but that is rough:

Palmer

DJ/Rawls

Julio/Fitz/Sanu

Clay

Hyde

Tenn

KarmaPolice said:

Well, here is my weekly 3 stud RB LU:

Kaepernick

DJ/D.Murray

Pryor/Boyd/S.Roberts

Graham

Gordon

Tenn

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Well I have been mulling a very similar LU for my Sun/Mon Cash LU 

Palmer-DJ-Gordon-J. Matt-Baldwin-Floyd-Cook-Murray-Tenn. 

I higher on Palmer than most people I think, I just think he is way too cheap. I think his floor is 17 and ceiling is high 20's. The 3 RB's could easily put up  25 each. If I avg. 10 out of the rest, I should be good. Is it risky, yes, but in these type of LU's I think you are hoping the studs carry you. Many times one of the risky plays end up producing better than expected, and a stud doesn't meet expectations. 

I may rework the WR/TE, but like everything else about this LU. If I use Wilson in my other LU, I will use Baldwin with that LU. 

podunker said:

Well I have been mulling a very similar LU for my Sun/Mon Cash LU 

Palmer-DJ-Gordon-J. Matt-Baldwin-Floyd-Cook-Murray-Tenn. 

I higher on Palmer than most people I think, I just think he is way too cheap. I think his floor is 17 and ceiling is high 20's. The 3 RB's could easily put up  25 each. If I avg. 10 out of the rest, I should be good. Is it risky, yes, but in these type of LU's I think you are hoping the studs carry you. Many times one of the risky plays end up producing better than expected, and a stud doesn't meet expectations. 

I may rework the WR/TE, but like everything else about this LU. If I use Wilson in my other LU, I will use Baldwin with that LU. 

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I reworked my 3 Rb LU.  Just staring at it, there were way too many players on there from teams with low implied team totals.  3 was just too many, so I added in the Wilson/Graham stack and ended up with:

Wilson - DJ/D.Murray - Sanu/Boyd/Roberts - Graham - Gordon - Tenn

Obviously a couple sketchy WRs, but Sanu is averaging 13pts/game at home and Atl has one of the best team totals for the week.  Roberts is my WTH dart, as I expect a shootout and Crabtree seems a little dinged.  Roberts has as good a shot at a TD as anybody in the 3000, and that's all I can hope for as I pay up all the way for my RBs and TE. 

chasyone said:

QB- Carr

RB- DJ, Gordon

WR- Baldwin, Parker, J Mathews

TE- CJ Fied

Flex- Jennings 

D- Titans 

Just a $3 league with 12 of my friends 

Click to expand...

Going with this LU in 3 of them today. My$3 12 man league, $2 H2H with a buddy and a $1 double up

going with this in a $1 GPP

QB - Kap

RB - DJ, Murray 

WR - J Mathews, Lee, Quick

TE - Graham

Flex - Gordon

D - Titans 

chasyone said:

Going with this LU in 3 of them today. My$3 12 man league, $2 H2H with a buddy and a $1 double up

going with this in a $1 GPP

QB - Kap

RB - DJ, Murray 

WR - J Mathews, Lee, Quick

TE - Graham

Flex - Gordon

D - Titans 

Click to expand...

Good luck!

can't decide on these two LU

Russel

DJ Lamar

Baldwin Boyd Edelman 

McDonald

Jennings

Saints 

or

Russel

DJ Ajayi

Baldwin Boyd Mathews

McDonald

Hyde

Saints

Cash Lineup:

Carr

Ajayi, Gordon

Fitzgerald, Matthews, Boyd

Kelce

Rawls

Saints

GPP Lineup:

Palmer

DJ, Gordon

Baldwin, Boyd, Parker

Fiedorowicz

Ajayi

Titans

Dan Hindery said:

Having a tough time figuring out WR and TE this week and less locked into my lineup than I usually am on Friday night. Also going back and forth between Carr and Wilson at QB. Good chance I switch up quite a bit by Sunday, but here's where I'm at now:

Carr

DJ-Gordon-Rawls

Baldwin-D. Parker-Boyd

Kelce

Titans

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swapping in R. Matthews and Fiedorowicz for Parker/Kelce in my main lineup. Don't feel great about Matthews but he fits and has a little bit of a 2015 Doug Baldwin thing going lately. 

Really tough week at WR/TE overall. 

Warmed up to Doug Martin in the past 24 hours, but using him mainly in tourneys. 

Going to be a loooooong week with this Seattle O looking like this.  

Good thing i switched from Kaep to Wilson, right??? 

Well..........interesting Sunday.

I haven't been able to get on here, but I am shocked by the performance of Seattle. DJ showed again that he is matchup proof. Fitz, what happened man. 

Why didn't I use Brees at home? Parker, what could have been.

My cash game scores are fairly low, but I think the cutoffs are going to be low, so I might be able to hang in there. Setting at 122 with my Sun/Only LU. 

112 on Sun/Mon with Jordan Matthews to go, and have Cook and Smallwood to go still in my Thur/Mon LU. We shall see!

Holy crap - got a shock when I logged in and saw that not only was I not losing, but I was actually up about $40!  Part of it right now is that I have the Denver D in a gpp and it's at 10pts, but that could/probably will come down a little as the game goes on.  So it might be the opposite as the last couple weeks and my cash LU bails out my gpps.  Sitting at 127.44 right now with that LU I posted.  Currently it hit all it's 50/50s, 2x, 3x, and 5xs, but it's just barely clinging to that 5x, so I might lose that. 

What made me sweat all day is that I entered my first Millionaire maker ever, and of course that is what I threw my huge Seattle/TB game stack at.  Thankfully, that is the one that I have the Denv D in, and it should hang on to cash at $40.  I will take that for sure.  This is what my roster was:

Wilson - DJ/Hyde - Evans/Baldwin/Lockett - Graham - Brate - Denver

I am just glad I stuck to my guns with Hyde and I had Evans in there on the come back.  With this weird week, I will take just winning a little.

really solid week for me in GPP. best line-up for me was 163 pts.

best line-up: Palmer - DJ / L Murray - OBJ / Baldwin / T Gabriel - Barnidge - Hyde - Saints D

unfortunately Baldwin/Barnidge put up stinkers

pbandy1 said:

really solid week for me in GPP. best line-up for me was 163 pts.

best line-up: Palmer - DJ / L Murray - OBJ / Baldwin / T Gabriel - Hyde - Saints D

unfortunately Baldwin/Barnidge put up stinkers

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Nice call on the Gabriel pick. 

podunker said:

Nice call on the Gabriel pick. 

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that's what really won me $ in most of my line-ups since he opened up so much salary space. I was basically convinced he was going to have a good game after some research and had him in every GPP line-up of mine.

Another losing week for me on DK in my Cash games. 

Bet-166 Won-119

I had 4 LU's because of the Thanksgiving day cash LU. For whatever reason I have been doing much better on FD than DK the last month. Early in the season it was just the opposite. One reason maybe is that the "Chalk" was hitting a lot early in the season and that has not been the case the last month. Still I am playing a lot of the same players on both sites. Last year, I did much better all year on DK than FD. 

I just want to say up front, I am not a big spender. I started week 1 with about $100 on both sites. Mostly left over from last year. I started from week 1 with my 3 LU Cash Game Strategy. The way I approached this year with my bankroll was that $100 was 10% of my "Real" Bankroll for the season. I knew up front that I was willing to spend $1000 the whole NFL season. Thats what I said last year also, and that is what I think is reasonable for my entertainment/hobby during the season.  Everyone is different I am sure. 

 Last year, I got up early in the year a lot and changed my strategy as far as betting went. I started moving up to higher priced games and that ended up costing me big time in the end. I went from plus 800 to -500  by week 14. At that point I had lost focus totally and decided to give it a break. So I finished 500 down for the season. Moving up in entry fee and playing on too many sites were killers for me. Plus, not having a real strategy/plan in place made it double tuff.  I was playing on DK, FD, Draftday, Fantasydraft, Starsdraft, and Yahoo. I was able to win some cash back with Golf over the summer and that is were the cash to start this season came from.  

This year I have been pretty diligent in following my 3 LU plan, and game selection plan. I would also say, I have been fairly good following my weekly research plan. Not perfect, and I have made changes here and there, but still fairly good. The one thing I noticed this year compared to last was not having a real plan when I won last year, made it much easier to get off track when I started losing. Last year, I was getting lucky early in the season, without much of a plan. When I started losing, I tried to get a real plan, but it was too late, because I had not had any success with the plan to fall back on in bad weeks. This year, I have had losing weeks with my plan, but I have also had success, so it's been easier to stick with the plan knowing that it has been successful in the past. I am still learning and adjusting, and I think you have to do this to keep having any success. Also I can see by my scores each week compared to last year, that I am getting better. I admit, I have been surprised at the learning curve. And I still believe there is a lot of luck involved. 

Now on to my losing streak this year. I looked back and noticed I have been falling into the temptation of higher priced and more GPP's the last few weeks. Early in the season I was betting a certain way in regards to GPP's I would spend 25% on each of the 3 cash LU's, then the last 25% on GPP's. But those GPP's were $1 or $2 max. I have noticed in the last few weeks, I had been playing in higher stake GPP's and I don't think it is helping my bottom dollar overall. I would say part of the problem is that I  moved up to betting almost double of what I started betting each week in the beginning. I am pretty comfortable with that for my cash games because I have been staying at the same entry fee level. But in GPP's I have moved up to the higher dollar stuff. I would say I am betting 35-45 on each Cash Game LU, and probably around that for the GPP's. So with 45 in play, I have moved up to higher priced GPP's and looking back I think that has been a mistake. 

One thing I have been doing is playing in a few low cost Satelites/Qualifiers and I think that is how I am going to try to get in the bigger GPP's each week instead of paying that $25 price the rest of the way. I just starting doing this, and I think it is a feasible strategy to get those entries. 

Here is how I am setting right now as far as mind set and bankroll through 11/12 weeks. My mind set is pretty good overall. Writing this and rechecking myself has been good for me. Sometimes you don't realize what you have changed. My "site" bankroll has went from 200 in week 1 to a low in week 3 of 25. I deposited in week 3 another 75 to each site. From that point I went to a high of 999 in week 8. 60% on DK, and 30% of that on FD. Now at the end of week 12 I am setting at 850 with 60% on FD and 30% on DK. That is with three losing weeks in a row on DK. 

I am not posting this to be brag or whatever, just posting it so someone else might learn from my mistakes. 

Having a weekly research plan has been critical to my success. 

Having a weekly cash game betting strategy has been critical to my success. 

Having people/writers/experts you trust has been critical to my success. 

Sticking to those things has been critical to my success and the hardest thing to do. 

I know I may lose it all in the end, and that will be fine, since I go in knowing this is just a hobby/entertainment. 

I will say..........it is much more entertaining when you see success!