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2017 1st Round in FF (1 Viewer)

Ghost Rider

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Barring injury or something else significant, I think it goes without saying that first round picks next year will include:

Elliot

D Johnson

A Brown

J Jones

OBJ

Evans

L Bell (assuming he doesn't get busted for weed again)

Who will fill out the first round?

You gotta think AJ Green will still be a 1st rounder despite his injury.

Melvin Gordon will likely vault up there.

Despite the seasons they are having, I can't see McCoy or D Murray going in the 1st.

A Cooper maybe?

 
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I'll give this a crack. Top 24. 12 team league. Regardless of PPR or not- this is my preference, as scarcity dictates that top 3 selections should be RB, regardless of format.

1. Zeke- Elite talent with huge workload on a run committed team with league's best line.

2. Johnson- Great balance of rush and receiving talent.

3. Bell- The top 3 are all pretty close, Bell is last because of suspensions

4. A. Brown- Most consistent performer in the league

5. Evans- He's arrived. Enormous volume with even more upside. TD sustainability the only question.

6. OBJ- Despite a few clunkers and histrionics, an elite player.

7. J. Jones- A no brainer first round pick, could go as high as 5, but not lower than 7.

(As of this writing, this is my first drop off point, meaning I'd be most comfortable having a top 7 pick).

8. Bryant- Nagging injuries a concern, but has round bond w/ Dak.

9. AJ Green- He's ahead of Dez if there's no lingering injury concern.

10. Nelson- A little TD dependent but still a solid choice.

11. A . Cooper- Lack of consistency and Crabtree's resurgence drop him to back of round #1.

12. M. Gordon- Has put it together this year despite line play. TDs may shrink next year

13. L. McCoy- Has injuries here and there but delivers when he plays. Still a homerun hitter.

14. D. Murray- Only 28, has rebounded well. Not as desirous in dynasty due to volume concerns.

(Next drop off point for me- for those that tier)

15. J. Ajayi- Has emerged this year. Would not take him any higher than the middle of round #2, but is legit RB1.

16. D. Hopkins- I believe Houston will be fixed enough to have Hopkins return to WR1 status.

17. ADP- Of course, this is predicated on a full recovery. Still a beast. Less value, of course, in dynasty format.

18. M. Thomas- Becoming the #1 option in NO. Still a risk because of Snead and Cooks, but merits back of round 2 consideration.

19. S. Ware- If Charles in gone, he vaults up the ladder into round 1. I believe he's the bellcow next year.

20. D. Freeman- Still 8th in standard RB scoring with Coleman's role.

21. TY Hilton- 7th in standard WR scoring.

22. A. Jeffrey- body of work merits second round selection.

23. R. Gronkowski- Still the single biggest matchup advantage when healthy. For those comfortable with risk.

24. L. Fournette- Elite talent. Moves up if final destination favorable.

Others in the conversation:

Gurley- A level talent on bad team

Miller- Volume remains despite poor results

J. Howard- Could be a late second rounder if bellcow.

Cooks- still room in NO for multiple high round WR.

Rodgers- given body of work, cannot exclude, but I don't go QB in first two rounds.

There will be at least one other rookie RB who lands well and is in the discussion for top 24.

 
Ack88 said:
I'll give this a crack. Top 24. 12 team league. Regardless of PPR or not- this is my preference, as scarcity dictates that top 3 selections should be RB, regardless of format.

1. Zeke- Elite talent with huge workload on a run committed team with league's best line.

2. Johnson- Great balance of rush and receiving talent.

3. Bell- The top 3 are all pretty close, Bell is last because of suspensions

4. A. Brown- Most consistent performer in the league

5. Evans- He's arrived. Enormous volume with even more upside. TD sustainability the only question.

6. OBJ- Despite a few clunkers and histrionics, an elite player.

7. J. Jones- A no brainer first round pick, could go as high as 5, but not lower than 7.

(As of this writing, this is my first drop off point, meaning I'd be most comfortable having a top 7 pick).

8. Bryant- Nagging injuries a concern, but has round bond w/ Dak.

9. AJ Green- He's ahead of Dez if there's no lingering injury concern.

10. Nelson- A little TD dependent but still a solid choice.

11. A . Cooper- Lack of consistency and Crabtree's resurgence drop him to back of round #1.

12. M. Gordon- Has put it together this year despite line play. TDs may shrink next year

13. L. McCoy- Has injuries here and there but delivers when he plays. Still a homerun hitter.

14. D. Murray- Only 28, has rebounded well. Not as desirous in dynasty due to volume concerns.

(Next drop off point for me- for those that tier)

15. J. Ajayi- Has emerged this year. Would not take him any higher than the middle of round #2, but is legit RB1.

16. D. Hopkins- I believe Houston will be fixed enough to have Hopkins return to WR1 status.

17. ADP- Of course, this is predicated on a full recovery. Still a beast. Less value, of course, in dynasty format.

18. M. Thomas- Becoming the #1 option in NO. Still a risk because of Snead and Cooks, but merits back of round 2 consideration.

19. S. Ware- If Charles in gone, he vaults up the ladder into round 1. I believe he's the bellcow next year.

20. D. Freeman- Still 8th in standard RB scoring with Coleman's role.

21. TY Hilton- 7th in standard WR scoring.

22. A. Jeffrey- body of work merits second round selection.

23. R. Gronkowski- Still the single biggest matchup advantage when healthy. For those comfortable with risk.

24. L. Fournette- Elite talent. Moves up if final destination favorable.

Others in the conversation:

Gurley- A level talent on bad team

Miller- Volume remains despite poor results

J. Howard- Could be a late second rounder if bellcow.

Cooks- still room in NO for multiple high round WR.

Rodgers- given body of work, cannot exclude, but I don't go QB in first two rounds.

There will be at least one other rookie RB who lands well and is in the discussion for top 24.
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Good thoughts.  Are you saying this is what will happen or what should?  

If the former, I think it would surprise me to see gurley and Miller actually fall out.

i would probably take out gronk with this latest injury and I think that people will probably cool on Jeffrey.

 
I'm back to thinking that if you can't land part of what i  would call the top 5 (elliott, Johnson, Julio, Evans, Bell) I go top qb.  In two leagues I am riding rodgers and brees with a bunch of waiver wire pickups into first place.  You just can't replace a guy like brees who put up 40pts for me last week.  I traded Julio Jones on that team 3 weeks ago for picks and have started Tyrell Williams in his place and have won 3 in a row.  

 
If we had to draft today, knowing what we know, this is how I would rank the top 24.

This list will absolutely change. For example, if Fournette is drafted by a team like Green Bay- he becomes a legit first round choice if he shows in camp that he has a lock on the job. Same could be said for Dalvin Cook- but as we don't know the destination right now, this is all speculative. It would not shock me if both Cook and Fournette found their way into the top 24 overall.

I think Gurley and Miller's final position will be determined by where the new crop of RBs lands. Miller is more likely to fall out, IMO because Gurley is the better talent.

 
killface said:
I'm back to thinking that if you can't land part of what i  would call the top 5 (elliott, Johnson, Julio, Evans, Bell) I go top qb.  In two leagues I am riding rodgers and brees with a bunch of waiver wire pickups into first place.  You just can't replace a guy like brees who put up 40pts for me last week.  I traded Julio Jones on that team 3 weeks ago for picks and have started Tyrell Williams in his place and have won 3 in a row.  
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I certainly can't argue with your results. My personal preference is to avoid QB in the first few rounds, but a winning mousetrap can be built in a variety of ways.

 
Age will play a part in where some of these guys are drafted. For instance, Jordy will be 32 next year and appears to have lost some of his separation speed. Maybe he bounces back, but I am proceeding with caution. 

Murray is another player with age concerns. He will be 29 come next season, and has been worked like a borrowed mule.

Given Elliot's impact as a rook, I see the bottom quarter of the first round potentially filled out with the likes of Fournette, Cooks, McCaffery and such, depending on their landing spot.

 Ajayi could sneak into the latter part of the first round. When healthy, the oline is pretty special and I think Gase has the team pointed in the right direction.

 
Ack88 said:
I certainly can't argue with your results. My personal preference is to avoid QB in the first few rounds, but a winning mousetrap can be built in a variety of ways.
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There is no formula for sure but if you look at the points in my league this year....2 big rbs, 3 big wrs, and then a whole bunch of everyone else.  

Whereas Brees and Rodgers have 100 pt difference over the guys that took Roethlisberger, Stafford or Rivers

The gap in rb is huge too with the top guys and the middle of the pack guys thus being able to get a great rb is huge.  

Whereas beckham has a 20 point advantage over Terrell Pryor, Devante Adams and Crowder

 
I didn't think Gurley was a 1st round pick this year, and given what we've seen this year, I think it's madness to take him in the 1st OR 2nd round next year, barring major changes in the Rams coaching staff (Fisher gone) and on the offense. 

 
In PPR leagues I don't know how you can put Zeke ahead of legitimate dual-threat backs like Johnson and Bell.

 
Since most of my leagues are PPR, here's my list:

1. David Johnson, RB - Dude does it all and seems like a lock for 100+ yards from scrimmage every game. Add in TDs in receptions and he's a PPR monster

2. Antonio Brown, WR - Been on of the most consistent fantasy guys over the last few years. Don't see any signs of slowing down

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB - With that OL in front of him, he's going to keep eating

4. Le'Veon Bell, RB - Pretty much the same as David Johnson. Could argue for him being in the top 3 and I wouldn't have a problem with that

5. Odell Beckham, WR - Starting to get into his prime and seems to only be getting better

6. Mike Evans, WR, - He and Jameis seem to be building something special and is a monster in the red zone

7. Julio Jones, WR - Still putting up big numbers. He does seem to always play hurt, but still manages to play well

(Agree with Ack88, that there is a bit of a dropoff after the Top 7)

8. AJ Green, WR - As long as he can stay healthy, he's a Top 5 WR

9. Melvin Gordon, RB - Seems odd, but I think he'll be just as good next year.

10. Demarco Murray, RB - Feel weird putting him this high, but he's someone I think I would avoid going into next season

11. Amari Cooper, WR - He and Carr could be developing a real nice connection going forward

12. Michael Thomas, WR - #1 WR on one of the top passing attacks

 
Super elite tier

1) David Johnson.  TD machine....reception machine....yardage machine.  Should be the #1 overall in most leagues this year.

2) LeVeon Bell.  Like Johnson, but doesn't score as many TDs.  More risky than Johnson due to previous supensions.

3) Ezekiel Elliott.  With that OL, you can pretty much pencil in 1400 rushing yards, 250-350 receiving yards, and 11+ TDs.  And his upside is 2000 yards and 18-20 TDs.  Would rank Elliott ahead of Bell in standard leagues.

4) Antonio Brown.  Most consistent WR in the game.  Should have another 110 catch 1600 yard 11-12 TD year.

5) Mike Evans.  Target hog.  Should be a lock for 100+ receptions.   Up and coming offense with a young gunslinging QB who is only getting better.  Sky is the limit.

Tier break

Elite tier.

6) Odell Beckham.  Still a stud despite somewhat of a downward year.  Upside is still through the roof. 

7) AJ Green.  Consistent production despite not a great offense in CIN.

8) Julio Jones.  Upside is higher than Green's, but disappeared too often this year, so I prefer Green over Julio.

Tier Break.

Now it gets dicey.

9) Melvin Gordon.  Was great this year, but I still don't think he's an elite talent.  Will he get the same amount of touches?  Not sure if I would touch Gordon in round 1 next year.

10) Spencer Ware.  KC lead back is always gold.  Decent runner and great receiver, with a QB who loves to check it down.

11) Dez Bryant.  Elite talent, gaining rapport with Prescott.  Elliott will cap his upside so that's why he isn't in the tier with OBJ, Green and Julio.  Dependent on TDs to capture 1st round value.

12) I will leave this slot open, since I have no clue who to put here.  You can make an argument for D Murray, Ajayi, McCoy, Gurley (if LA improves the OL in the offseason), or Hopkins.  There could be others in the mix.

 
Ack88 said:
I'll give this a crack. Top 24. 12 team league. Regardless of PPR or not- this is my preference, as scarcity dictates that top 3 selections should be RB, regardless of format.

1. Zeke- Elite talent with huge workload on a run committed team with league's best line.

2. Johnson- Great balance of rush and receiving talent.

3. Bell- The top 3 are all pretty close, Bell is last because of suspensions

4. A. Brown- Most consistent performer in the league

5. Evans- He's arrived. Enormous volume with even more upside. TD sustainability the only question.

6. OBJ- Despite a few clunkers and histrionics, an elite player.

7. J. Jones- A no brainer first round pick, could go as high as 5, but not lower than 7.

(As of this writing, this is my first drop off point, meaning I'd be most comfortable having a top 7 pick).

8. Bryant- Nagging injuries a concern, but has round bond w/ Dak.

9. AJ Green- He's ahead of Dez if there's no lingering injury concern.

10. Nelson- A little TD dependent but still a solid choice.

11. A . Cooper- Lack of consistency and Crabtree's resurgence drop him to back of round #1.

12. M. Gordon- Has put it together this year despite line play. TDs may shrink next year

13. L. McCoy- Has injuries here and there but delivers when he plays. Still a homerun hitter.

14. D. Murray- Only 28, has rebounded well. Not as desirous in dynasty due to volume concerns.

(Next drop off point for me- for those that tier)

15. J. Ajayi- Has emerged this year. Would not take him any higher than the middle of round #2, but is legit RB1.

16. D. Hopkins- I believe Houston will be fixed enough to have Hopkins return to WR1 status.

17. ADP- Of course, this is predicated on a full recovery. Still a beast. Less value, of course, in dynasty format.

18. M. Thomas- Becoming the #1 option in NO. Still a risk because of Snead and Cooks, but merits back of round 2 consideration.

19. S. Ware- If Charles in gone, he vaults up the ladder into round 1. I believe he's the bellcow next year.

20. D. Freeman- Still 8th in standard RB scoring with Coleman's role.

21. TY Hilton- 7th in standard WR scoring.

22. A. Jeffrey- body of work merits second round selection.

23. R. Gronkowski- Still the single biggest matchup advantage when healthy. For those comfortable with risk.

24. L. Fournette- Elite talent. Moves up if final destination favorable.

Others in the conversation:

Gurley- A level talent on bad team

Miller- Volume remains despite poor results

J. Howard- Could be a late second rounder if bellcow.

Cooks- still room in NO for multiple high round WR.

Rodgers- given body of work, cannot exclude, but I don't go QB in first two rounds.

There will be at least one other rookie RB who lands well and is in the discussion for top 24.
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Great list IMO - more so since you included some details around thought processes with each.

From your top 24 I'd probably take out Jordy (on pace for a career high in targets this year and will be 32), Thomas (unless Cooks gets traded), and Hilton (Moncrief will emerge as that team's true #1 when fully healthy IMO) in favor of Gurley (should get fewer stacked boxes as Goff develops), Miller, and either A-Rob or Keenan Allen. Also agree with your assertion that we'll be talking about at least two rookie RBs in the top-24 conversation by the time next August rolls around.

I'm probably going to wait even longer on QB next year than I did this year, but TE to me is a more interesting dilemma. Has the gap between Gronk and the field narrowed? Are there few enough elite options that the Kelces and Grahams of the world start becoming worth 3rd- or 4th-round picks? I'm inclined to answer "no" to both of these right now, but it's early days yet and should be an interesting question next year for sure.

 
So far, looks like we have a consensus top 7 or 8. After that, seems like a total toss up. RB seems pretty top heavy again going into next year. As for TE, I think there's more incentive now to wait than ever before. Gronk and Reed are probably the 2 most talented at the position, but both are big injury risks. Olsen, Kelce, and Graham round out the top 5 at the position, IMO. After those 5 though, it's a complete dice roll as to who else would be worth putting in the top 10. 

 
So basically the top scoring players from this season will be the top scoring players next year, per these lists.

I understand why this happens, and it's obviously intuitive to make a list based on who this year's top scorers were - but as we all know it seldom turns out that way when all is said and done. I'm not criticizing at all (all the expert lists will look the same as these lists), it's just an interesting phenomenon.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
So basically the top scoring players from this season will be the top scoring players next year, per these lists.

I understand why this happens, and it's obviously intuitive to make a list based on who this year's top scorers were - but as we all know it seldom turns out that way when all is said and done. I'm not criticizing at all (all the expert lists will look the same as these lists), it's just an interesting phenomenon.
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Well if you go back and look at this point in 2015, I believe Brown, Beckham, Julio, Johnson, Green, Dez, and Bell were probably high on everyone's lists going into 2016. The guys that usually score high, tend to do so the following year.

 
MattFancy said:
Well if you go back and look at this point in 2015, I believe Brown, Beckham, Julio, Johnson, Green, Dez, and Bell were probably high on everyone's lists going into 2016. The guys that usually score high, tend to do so the following year.
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I get that and also get sometimes it works out. Like I said, I understand why this happens, and as far as first round picks go you aren't going to just pick some one out of the blue (which is why so many people argued vehemently that Elliot wasn't worthy of being a first round pick) so it's also intuitive that a list would look this way.

I'm really not (and not trying to) making some grand statement - it's just interesting to me. The first round will look like these lists next year and probably should. Obviously even if I though DeAndre Hopkins was going to return to 2015 form or that Bilal Powell will emerge as a top 5 running back next year, there would be no reason to draft them in round one.

 
Related question I guess-

Who are RBs 5 -12 next year.  If one presumes DJ, Elliot, Bell and Gordon are  1 -4.

 
5-12: Murray, Mccoy, Freeman, Howard, Gurley, Fournette, Cook, and Martin....

Thats my guess-- I'm sure I'm missing someone. 

 
Ned Ryerson said:
Related question I guess-

Who are RBs 5 -12 next year.  If one presumes DJ, Elliot, Bell and Gordon are  1 -4.
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In no particular order:

Jay Ajayi

Jordan Howard

Demarco Murray

Devonta Freeman

LeSean McCoy

Spencer Ware

Leonard Fournette

Todd Gurley

 
Seems like Gurley may be a quality buy low next year. Not too many guys own their backfield and have their offenses run through him like he does, and I can only see Goff improving next year.

 
I can't argue with taking Gurley at the back end of round #2, but you'd likely need to go WR on the other side of the turn.

 
the big 3 RBs should easily be the top 3 overall picks in any league next year.  position scarcity heavily favors them over WRs even in PPR.  i'd go DJ > Zeke > Le'veon because i want as little risk as possible in the first round.

AB should be the clear #4 in any league i think, though again that could be my risk-averse nature coming through.  after that it gets more interesting - i actually see McCoy as the slam-dunk #4 RB, again due to his consistency over the years.  i might actually take McCoy over any WR besides Brown, as i really do not like the RBs after the 2nd round.

the top-tier WRs after Brown are all pretty obvious & safe and will go in the 1st round or early 2nd, so i don't think there's much to say about them.  i guess some might be scared of including Dez in that bunch, but i'm not - he's been fine since they took the training wheels off of Dak.  Hopkins could jump back up there if the Texans get Romo or something, and you could make an argument for Cooper making another leap in year 3, but that's about it.  oh yeah, and i wouldn't take Allen Robinson in the 2nd because i don't believe in his QB one iota.

a word about Gordon since his name keeps coming up: i wouldn't even think about Gordon in the 1st.  i don't like his value being so TD-heavy since TDs are swingy from year to year, and Woodhead should be back to siphon off some of those scores & carries along with a lot of catches.  i see Gordon as a 2nd round gamble who will never make it that far.

Actually, i can think of 7 RBs i would take in the first round of a redraft: the big 3, McCoy, Ajayi, Rawls, & DeMarco.  i absolutely love Ajayi's situation because he's young, he *is* that team's identity on offense now, and their O-line still has plenty of room for improvement.  Rawls should be healthy going into next season, and at 100% he's Marshawn Lynch all over again in terms of his production & style of play - a perfect fit for that team, so they should feed him.  i can't believe the lack of love he's gotten in this thread, though i expect the buzz to pick up if he delivers now and in the playoffs.  DeMarco is the guy if you want a more boom-or-bust type that early, and i think that becomes justified at the end of the 1st when you can pair him with a safer stud.

Ware is a guy who has to be taken in the 2nd round but i'm not thrilled with him...i don't really see that much room for improvement over this year, given that Charles has already been a non-factor.  i just get the impression that KC will be closer to a RBBC than it was with Charles.  i'm also in the camp that wouldn't consider Gurley until the 3rd, and i would probably take Ingram over him.

oh yeah, and i don't think you can justify Gronk in the first 2 rounds anymore, given his injuries and how often decent TEs emerge from the wire.  someone will take him though.

altogether, my top 24 would be something like:

1. DJ

2. Zeke

3. Le'veon

4. AB

5. McCoy

6. Ajayi

7. Rawls (assuming he plays well for the rest of the season & stays healthy)

8. Evans

9. AJ Green (don't expect the injury to be relevant next year)

10. OBJ

11. Julio (injury risk bumps him down)

12. DeMarco

13. Dez

14. Jordan Howard (if he's confirmed to keep the starting job and not get stuck in RBBC)

15. Freeman

16. Cooper

17. TY

18. Gordon

19. Forte

20. Fitzgerald

21. Jordy (scares me given his decline in real football terms, but has less competition for targets than a Crabtree or Michael Thomas)

22. Fournette (a lot up in the air obv, this seems like a nice floor)

23. Ware

24. Crabtree (that offense is all about chucking it downfield, still enough go around for him)

keep in mind that's a personal ranking, not who's most likely to go.  the first round should be fairly accurate aside from maybe Ajayi & Rawls though.

 
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Josh the FunkDOC said:
the big 3 RBs should easily be the top 3 overall picks in any league next year.  position scarcity heavily favors them over WRs even in PPR.  i'd go DJ > Zeke > Le'veon because i want as little risk as possible in the first round.

AB should be the clear #4 in any league i think, though again that could be my risk-averse nature coming through.  after that it gets more interesting - i actually see McCoy as the slam-dunk #4 RB, again due to his consistency over the years.  i might actually take McCoy over any WR besides Brown, as i really do not like the RBs after the 2nd round.

the top-tier WRs after Brown are all pretty obvious & safe and will go in the 1st round or early 2nd, so i don't think there's much to say about them.  i guess some might be scared of including Dez in that bunch, but i'm not - he's been fine since they took the training wheels off of Dak.  Hopkins could jump back up there if the Texans get Romo or something, and you could make an argument for Cooper making another leap in year 3, but that's about it.  oh yeah, and i wouldn't take Allen Robinson in the 2nd because i don't believe in his QB one iota.

a word about Gordon since his name keeps coming up: i wouldn't even think about Gordon in the 1st.  i don't like his value being so TD-heavy since TDs are swingy from year to year, and Woodhead should be back to siphon off some of those scores & carries along with a lot of catches.  i see Gordon as a 2nd round gamble who will never make it that far.

Actually, i can think of 7 RBs i would take in the first round of a redraft: the big 3, McCoy, Ajayi, Rawls, & DeMarco.  i absolutely love Ajayi's situation because he's young, he *is* that team's identity on offense now, and their O-line still has plenty of room for improvement.  Rawls should be healthy going into next season, and at 100% he's Marshawn Lynch all over again in terms of his production & style of play - a perfect fit for that team, so they should feed him.  i can't believe the lack of love he's gotten in this thread, though i expect the buzz to pick up if he delivers now and in the playoffs.  DeMarco is the guy if you want a more boom-or-bust type that early, and i think that becomes justified at the end of the 1st when you can pair him with a safer stud.

Ware is a guy who has to be taken in the 2nd round but i'm not thrilled with him...i don't really see that much room for improvement over this year, given that Charles has already been a non-factor.  i just get the impression that KC will be closer to a RBBC than it was with Charles.  i'm also in the camp that wouldn't consider Gurley until the 3rd, and i would probably take Ingram over him.

oh yeah, and i don't think you can justify Gronk in the first 2 rounds anymore, given his injuries and how often decent TEs emerge from the wire.  someone will take him though.

altogether, my top 24 would be something like:

1. DJ

2. Zeke

3. Le'veon

4. AB

5. McCoy

6. Ajayi

7. Rawls (assuming he plays well for the rest of the season & stays healthy)

8. Evans

9. AJ Green (don't expect the injury to be relevant next year)

10. OBJ

11. Julio (injury risk bumps him down)

12. DeMarco

13. Dez

14. Jordan Howard (if he's confirmed to keep the starting job and not get stuck in RBBC)

15. Freeman

16. Cooper

17. TY

18. Gordon

19. Forte

20. Fitzgerald

21. Jordy (scares me given his decline in real football terms, but has less competition for targets than a Crabtree or Michael Thomas)

22. Fournette (a lot up in the air obv, this seems like a nice floor)

23. Ware

24. Crabtree (that offense is all about chucking it downfield, still enough go around for him)

keep in mind that's a personal ranking, not who's most likely to go.  the first round should be fairly accurate aside from maybe Ajayi & Rawls though.
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While I wouldn't take either Rawls or Ajayi in round 1- like the differential thinking. 

 
Surprised to see Reed only mentioned once or twice. When healthy, he's been  WR1. In PPR, he's a 2nd rounder for me, even in a no-TE req format.

He will need to be watched to make sure the conclusions and shoulder are fine going into next season.

 
LarryAllen'sJockstrap said:
Surprised to see Reed only mentioned once or twice. When healthy, he's been  WR1. In PPR, he's a 2nd rounder for me, even in a no-TE req format.

He will need to be watched to make sure the conclusions and shoulder are fine going into next season.
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I think what keeps Reed off these lists is how injury prone he is.

 
petekrum said:
How much if any will the return of Woodhead affect Gordon's projections for next year? Does this worry anyone?
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Woodhead will be 32 next season and coming off ACL surgery. I know he doesn't have the wear and tear of most RBs, but I don't think he's going to be a huge threat next season.

 
Ghost Rider said:
I didn't think Gurley was a 1st round pick this year, and given what we've seen this year, I think it's madness to take him in the 1st OR 2nd round next year, barring major changes in the Rams coaching staff (Fisher gone) and on the offense. 
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this is absurd

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I get that and also get sometimes it works out. Like I said, I understand why this happens, and as far as first round picks go you aren't going to just pick some one out of the blue (which is why so many people argued vehemently that Elliot wasn't worthy of being a first round pick) so it's also intuitive that a list would look this way.
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FWIW I've long been a proponent of the "floor not ceiling" argument for first-rounders, a.k.a. "you can't win your fantasy league in Round 1 but you can lose it there" - which is why I was one of those who owned zero shares of Zeke this season.

But I'll admit this season has me rethinking things. In 20+ years of this I can't remember another time where so many 1st-rounders busted, not because of injury - which is largely random - but because of terrible situations outweighing star talent. And if I'd focused on ceiling, I'd probably have sidestepped a lot of those landmines (e.g. I had no faith in Brock Osweiler, Jeff Fisher, or Gus Bradley to direct an offense worthy of supporting an MVP-caliber player, which is a realistic ceiling for any 1st-rounder).

The question heading into 2017 is whether that narrative holds, or whether it will instead generate bargain prices on talented pieces of bad offenses that win titles next year when some higher-ceiling guys bust. I suspect it'll be the latter .. fool me twice ...  :loco:

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
FWIW I've long been a proponent of the "floor not ceiling" argument for first-rounders, a.k.a. "you can't win your fantasy league in Round 1 but you can lose it there" - which is why I was one of those who owned zero shares of Zeke this season.

But I'll admit this season has me rethinking things. In 20+ years of this I can't remember another time where so many 1st-rounders busted, not because of injury - which is largely random - but because of terrible situations outweighing star talent. And if I'd focused on ceiling, I'd probably have sidestepped a lot of those landmines (e.g. I had no faith in Brock Osweiler, Jeff Fisher, or Gus Bradley to direct an offense worthy of supporting an MVP-caliber player, which is a realistic ceiling for any 1st-rounder).

The question heading into 2017 is whether that narrative holds, or whether it will instead generate bargain prices on talented pieces of bad offenses that win titles next year when some higher-ceiling guys bust. I suspect it'll be the latter .. fool me twice ...  :loco:
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Was first round that bad?

Brown- Great

OBJ- Great

Gurley- Bust

Julio- Great

DJ- Great

AP- hurt

Zeke- Great

Hopkins- Bust

Gronk- hurt

Green- Great, then hurt

Miller- Mostly a bust

Bell- Great

6 hits

3 busts

3 hurt (and of the three that were hurt, 2 were pretty awesome when healthy)

Is that really that abnormal?

 
the thing with OBJ and Julio is that they've been more boom-or-bust than expected for first-round WRs, so people perceive them as not worth the 1st.  i drafted OBJ 3rd overall, and it's stung a little because David Johnson was the other guy i was considering there...but i still realize this has been a well above-average result for a 1st-round pick.  it's just one of those general psychological quirks: you're more likely to remember a guy losing you a game with 7 points than the same guy winning you a game with 44.

and @Ned Ryerson, to be fair you should also include Allen Robinson & Dez on that list since they often went in the 1st.  Dez is tricky to evaluate since he looks good now when the games matter most, but ARob (inb4 spider fixes my post) is a clear bust.

 
Josh the FunkDOC said:
the thing with OBJ and Julio is that they've been more boom-or-bust than expected for first-round WRs, so people perceive them as not worth the 1st.  i drafted OBJ 3rd overall, and it's stung a little because David Johnson was the other guy i was considering there...but i still realize this has been a well above-average result for a 1st-round pick.  it's just one of those general psychological quirks: you're more likely to remember a guy losing you a game with 7 points than the same guy winning you a game with 44.

and @Ned Ryerson, to be fair you should also include Allen Robinson & Dez on that list since they often went in the 1st.  Dez is tricky to evaluate since he looks good now when the games matter most, but ARob (inb4 spider fixes my post) is a clear bust.
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Ok, but I would say that a year where 75% of the 1st round picks would be abnormal, to be honest.  OBJ and Julio are receivers, a little more subject to fluctuation than backs, just the nature of the beast.  

And I certainly recall, and am thankful for Beckham's game against the ravens and Julio's 300 yd game against the Panthers.  They each won me a week on their own in two separate leagues.

 
MattFancy said:
In no particular order:

Jay Ajayi

Jordan Howard

Demarco Murray

Devonta Freeman

LeSean McCoy

Spencer Ware

Leonard Fournette

Todd Gurley
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Ware has been pretty disappointing overall. In PPR leagues he has only score more than 11 points in 4 games. And the great unknown is Charles. I think there are better opportunities.

I think a good argument could be made to put Cook and Mccaferry on this list, depending on their landing spot.  

 
Ned Ryerson said:
Was first round that bad?

6 hits

3 busts

3 hurt (and of the three that were hurt, 2 were pretty awesome when healthy)

Is that really that abnormal?
Click to expand...
It wasn't so much the actual numbers (though I'd call it 5, not 3; A-Rob was a low-end 1st-rounder in PPR and Gronk hurt you as many weeks as he helped you even before going on IR) as the characteristics of the guys who were busts. The top 3 WRs were great because they're always great, but who were the best performers from among the next ~12 picks?

- Zeke (rookie playing with rookie QB)

- D. Johnson (a half-season history as a stud RB, a la CJ Anderson in '15)

- Bell (suspended, coming off a serious injury)

- Freeman (one-season history as a stud, timeshare worries)

None of these were guys you targeted if you were focused on floor over ceiling, which was the point I was trying to make. Names like Nuk, Gurley, and A-Rob seemed "safer" even if their ceilings given their respective offenses weren't necessarily as high. I wonder how much that shapes owners' thinking going into 2017.

 
32 Counter Pass said:
Ware has been pretty disappointing overall. In PPR leagues he has only score more than 11 points in 4 games. And the great unknown is Charles. I think there are better opportunities.

I think a good argument could be made to put Cook and Mccaferry on this list, depending on their landing spot.  
Click to expand...
It used to be that you had to be aware of time shares in RBBC, but now you have to pay attention to how that RBBC is split. 

In some cases, you have really good receiving RBs that don't get receptions anymore because their back-up comes in on passing downs and 2 minute drives. You can make a case that Booker, Ware, and Forte are better receivers than Bibbs, West, and Powell, yet they get almost no action on passing downs.  That kills their PPR value. I rather have these RBs share series.

People that put Ware that high next year haven't been paying attention to this year.

I'll take a stab at the first round of what I think it will be (PPR):

1. David Johnson - Stud both running and receiving. , No pre-season concerns about a timeshare. Focus of the offense.

2. EE - I think we see a shift to getting a premiere RB again next season. Lots of good receivers available.

3 Antonio Brown - Drops to third due to a shift back to RB.

4. L. Bell - Without the injury and drug suspension history would be in the to 2 or 3. Antonio is a safer pick at 3.

5. Evans - Ascending star gets a slight edge over volatile OBJ.

6 OBJ - Character maturity concerns add an element of risk to make him lower than Evans.

7. Julio Jones- A stud, but a stud with injury concerns plus Ryan is more open to spreading the ball around now that he has more options.

8. AJ Green - The offense should go through him. Less risk than others below.

9. Murray - Great season, but there will be concerns that his back-up eats into his role.

10. Ajayi - The hype will be in full swing. No depth and healthy oline will fuel that hype.

11. Gordon - There will be some Woodhead concerns that will make some people people it's a risky pick.

12. Howard - More off-season hype as the offense will roll through him.

Early second round just missing the first.  Dez Bryant.(should be healthy) Gurley (people will be turned off by this year and scared the offense won't improve much), McCoy's injury history scares off some people. AP will land somewhere in the second.

 
PPR:

1. David Johnson

2. Antonio Brown

3. Leveon Bell

4. Julio Jones

5. Ezekiel Elliott

6. Odell Beckham

7. Rob Gronkowski

8. Mike Evans

9. Aj Green

10. Amari Cooper

11. CJ Prosise

12. Keenan Allen

 
I only come up with 6 players I feel good as a first round pick next season based on what I know right now and in order that would be Elliot, Bell, Johnson, Brown, Odell and Evans.

 
Run It Up said:
PPR:

11. CJ Prosise

12. Keenan Allen
Click to expand...
I respect the non-conforming opinion, but I can't see these two in the top 12. Allen coming off major injury and history of getting hurt, and Prosise will have Rawls to contend with.

 
Run It Up said:
Came back from an injury this year and looked to be a top 5 WR in a high powered offense.

Typically the better RB is fantasy relevant, and Prosise is that.
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As an owner of both Allen and Prosise in dynasty, I hope you're right. Trying to be realistic though.

 
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