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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)

What am I missing with WF -2 vs FSU on Sat? Feels trappy, but I have a hard time thinking Wake doesn't cover 2 at home.

 
Game 3 of the playoffs is 20-11-4 to the under when the road team lost the previous game.

Cardinals Under ½ +835
Nationals 1st 5 Innings -1 +180
Nationals 1st 5 Innings -½ +115
Cardinals 1st 5 Innings Under 1½ -145

 
I just barely missed Lions win 1Q and GB scoreless 1Q but once they do the coin toss it gets taken OTB. But I knew it! It probably would've been paying about 7/1 as the underdog in that situation. Barely missed it. But cashed a u10½ +125 1Q though!

 
parasaurolophus said:
I find the golf tourneys where lots of the really good players sit out to be very interesting. I don't claim to be any kind of expert here on golf betting or any kind of betting. I like to do some research and read about players and place small wagers. I appreciate when guys post info so in an effort to contribute here is some junk...

Scottie Scheffler to be first round leader +4000-

Off to a great start as a rookie this year. Finished tied for 7th, 16th, and 74th. In three tournaments so far he has posted pre-cut rounds of 65,62,68,66,67,and 67. He is also from texas. Have to go back to 2014 for a tie for the leader at houston so splits are rare.  His post cut numbers are pretty terrible. 

Lanto Griffin to win +5000, to finish top 10 +425-

Four straight top 20's. Missed cut here last time, but he is playing incredibly well and this field is trash. Most birdies so far this year and most sub par rounds. Been under par in the final round in all four tourneys. Worst four round score so far is -9. 

Denny Mccarthy +3300 to win,+700 top five.-

Three events so far. 31st, 18th, 9th. I really thought he was going to crack the top 5 this past Sunday and he just missed a couple. Finished 43rd here in only one start and his stats so far dont match up that well with what you usually need at houston. So lots of gut feel here and based on trend performance. He does rank 5th in par 4 birdie or better scoring though and the par 4's at houston are what separate. 

Sebastian Munoz top 5 finish +700-

Already with a win this year and a tied for 7th.  No history on this course, but his metrics fit well. SG approach,SG tee, driving accuracy. Missed cut last week, but should bounce back. Has only played one round over par this year. In a very similar field in July he also finished tied for 9th. 

Debating Keegan Bradley at 40-1 based solely on past tourney history since he seems to really do well there. 

ETA ended up adding michael thompson and bradley. Also  put 1 dollar on a few guys to lead round 1, but they were just random longshot picks to pay attention to this afternoon. 
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I signed up just to thank you for this parasaurolophus.

Found Griffin at +7000

 
Martay said:
I signed up just to thank you for this parasaurolophus.

Found Griffin at +7000
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That's awesome at 70-1! Denny just missed top five by one stroke. Was a fun tourney to track for sure. That 18th hole was crazy how it broke backs for guys trying to make the cut. Thompson was -1 and then double bogeyed 18 to miss the cut. Tyler Duncan was at -2 and then he tripled 18 to miss cut. Scott brown tripled it day 1. He also just missed cut by a stroke. Malnati doubled it in the final round to knock him down like ten places and cost himself like 80k.  I believe they showed a stat where it was the hardest hole on the tour in the last year by a decent margin.

 
Following super bowl prop logic and doing no handicapping I bet a lot of unders and no's on tonight's debate props

 
lumpy19 said:
Following super bowl prop logic and doing no handicapping I bet a lot of unders and no's on tonight's debate props
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I don't know if the under logic applies to the debates.  It seems these guys all want to get MORE than the allotted time in camera.

 
Not a ton of value this week for the CJ cup. I never understand how guys can be +4500 in a crap field and then the next week be +5000 in an elite field. That's why I like the lesser fields so much better and have had much better success in those. But here goes...

Adam Schenk top 20 finish +400- Has yet to shoot a round over par this year. Had 7 top 20's last year and has one so far this year which happenened to be on bentgrass. 

Joaquin Niemann +3500 to win. Top 10 finish +280- Already has a win this year and if you look at his last 8 starts of 2019 he went 5,5,23,10,cut,13,30,31. He finished 36th in the other time he played nine bridges, which isn't great, but it at least means he has some familiarity with the course. 

Jazz Janetrenowouldnot- +10000 to win, +1400 to be top asian player, +280 top 20 finish- Hard not to like this kid. Not a ton of results out there in fields like this, but lots of things to expect success. He was pretty great in the PGA championship until a final round 78 derailed him down to 14th. He won the singapore open (Paul Casey, Fitz, and Sergio were in top 10 there so some names). He has won in Korea before. The Korea Kolon Open, which doesnt sound like much, but he clobbered a field that only saw 7 golfers under par, so even though the field was weak, he destroyed it. Has 15 top 10's in international fields in the last year. 

Rafa Cabrera Bello- top continental euro player +225- I really didn't like the value for him with any of the other bets and wasnt going to place any wagers on him as I felt he was just up ther because of his two solid finishes there in two years. A top 20 finish was -135 and a top 10 finish was only +185. But whenever I looked at things that played well for this course or success at recent simlar courses in addition to his past results there I just kept seeing his name. In addition pretty much every fantasy golf analyst has him on their list. Figured a matchup against sergio, hovland, and sabbatini for +225 made the most sense to eliminate FOMO. 

Chez reavie- first round leader +4500- Reavie is 4th in first round scoring going back to last year and in his two starts at nine bridges he has finished the first round in the top 5 of scoring, including a tie for lead last time. Has fizzled a bit after the great starts both years, but has still had several under par rounds and a 7th and 15th finish overall. First round played incredibly difficult last year and that is well suited for chez. 

Adam Long- Top 20 finish +350- Got his first win last year in a full field event. Has three top 25's in three starts so far this year with a 14th place and still finished 23rd at safeway with a disastrous 3rd round. 

Contemplating Sungjae Im at 30-1 to lead first round. I also have Kiradech Aphibarnrat to lead first round at 90-1. Not the biggest fan of the bet, but originally made the bet at 900-1 and bovada sent me a message saying it was a line error and they canceled it. I figured with my luck he would end up leading so i threw down a bet at the corrected 90-1. FWIW Kiradech had a very solid first round at the masters last year and did very well at Sheshan(two courses nine bridges has drawn some comparisons to) 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
What are we doing with this Wednesday night football game?
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I don't have a feel for it, but on Friday talk me out of Pitt -3.5 -105. Action network put a piece out about Pitt D havoc rate vs Cuse havoc allowed going in opposite directions, and those pieces have been on point this season. 

 
Chain I know you subscribe to ESPn+.  Willing to share the ML parlay for CFB Chris Fallica put in his column with Stanford Steve?  He's usually pretty good at those.

 
facook said:
Chain I know you subscribe to ESPn+.  Willing to share the ML parlay for CFB Chris Fallica put in his column with Stanford Steve?  He's usually pretty good at those.
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Ohio State -6000
Houston -2000
UCF -10000
Texas -2000
Georgia -3500
Wisconsin -12000
Alabama -15000
Oklahoma -10000
Minnesota -7000
FIU -3000

 
So legalized sports gambling in Oregon "launched" statewide yesterday with the release of the Scoreboard app by the state lottery.   Professional sports only.  I use "launched" in quotes because even though they delayed the release of the app by 6 weeks to work out all of the bugs, the app is very - wait for it...... - buggy.  Can't sign up, error messages everywhere, complete cluster.  Surprise!

Judging by how well our state government oversaw the rollout of Obamacare technology, this should go swimmingly.  

 
Gonna be a rough night if kc blows out Denver

Kelce u6.5 u76.5

Hill u5.5 u74.5

Mahomes u314.5 u2.5td

Damien Williams u25.5 rushing u3.5rec

McCoy u40.5 rushing

Sanders u4.5 u49.5

Interested to see how @swirvenirvin has this capped

I would take some @TheGooRoo feedback as well

 
Last edited by a moderator:
lumpy19 said:
Gonna be a rough night if kc blows out Denver

Kelce u6.5 u76.5

Hill u5.5 u74.5

Mahomes u314.5 u2.5td

Damien Williams u25.5 rushing u3.5rec

McCoy u40.5 rushing

Sanders u4.5 u49.5

Interested to see how @swirvenirvin has this capped

I would take some @TheGooRoo feedback as well
Click to expand...
I'm on a lot of the same minus the dwill rush since it's so damn low so I'm interested in your replies too. Lmao

 
Well at least I have some agreement, this will be my biggest game of the year so far.  Last year every game was like this but the lines have been better this year and my outs reduced.

 
think they try to get reek involved early since denver plays cover 2 it will be short stuff may try and force him some screens and sweeps and some runs.  opens up middle a bit with the defense so hoping kelce eats as he done on the past

 
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