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The Ref

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - KICKOFF!!!!!!!!

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20 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

Stanford 10-0 SU and ATS L10 regular season versus UCLA. Does that feel different this year to anyone. Stanford using a backup QB but have had nearly two weeks to get ready. I think I like them a lot and the QB thing is just giving them line value. If you're going to plug and play a QB it's gotta help that he attends Stanford, dude's gotta be smart at least, right.

I kind of agree

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Mahomes dead... let's GO Broncos! 

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Should have bet Freeman and Lindsay unders against this tough kc run def

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5 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

why not throw hail mary

Cause it's Matt Moore

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2 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

flacco at the 40

Ahh gotcha.

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9 minutes ago, jamil said:

Ahh gotcha.

i mean right u down 14 pi drop int thats [rplly tacl;ed om endzpne or td

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19 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

Gonna be a rough night if kc blows out Denver

Kelce u6.5 u76.5

Hill u5.5 u74.5

Mahomes u314.5 u2.5td

Damien Williams u25.5 rushing u3.5rec

McCoy u40.5 rushing

Sanders u4.5 u49.5

Interested to see how @swirvenirvin has this capped

I would take some @TheGooRoo feedback as well

KC blows out Denver but I escaped with 8-3

Gave some it back betting Denver live immediately when mahomes got hurt.  Should have hammered the total(57.5 when he got hurt) instead of the side.

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Lions play a division game tonight. The CFL West division has gone 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the L10 division matchups. Laying an average of 4 points per game, the margin of victory in those ten games: 4,10,13,13,16,16,17,19,27,27

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Iowa vs purdue should be interesting. That iowa defense is legit, but i also think their offense is pitiful. 

Anybody with thoughts on this game?

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Only a few games I like tomorrow but some of them I like a bunch.

if you can get Navy at -14.5 still buy it down to -14 sit back and watch the show.  I think they kill USF.

People still haven’t come around on the fact that Tulane might be the best non P5 team out there.  The went into auburn and have them a handfull. Brady White is a mediocre QB and Taylor isn’t playing yet again.  +4.5 and +160.  Good chance to win outright.

Ore st is trash.   Give me Cal -11

Keep an eye on the Houston QB situation.  If Tune plays -12.5 1H is a steal.  If not it’s a no play.

Bet LSU every week - not stoping now -18.5

 

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42 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Iowa vs purdue should be interesting. That iowa defense is legit, but i also think their offense is pitiful. 

Anybody with thoughts on this game?

Per our buddy Johnny Detroit, for whatever it's worth:

Did you know? Teams ranked in the Top 25 coming off back to back losses have failed to cover their next game 78% (7-25-1) of the time since 2012!

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6 minutes ago, facook said:

Per our buddy Johnny Detroit, for whatever it's worth:

Did you know? Teams ranked in the Top 25 coming off back to back losses have failed to cover their next game 78% (7-25-1) of the time since 2012!

Purdue has had their number the last two years and are obviously coming off a good game as well. 

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20 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Purdue has had their number the last two years and are obviously coming off a good game as well. 

You talked me into Purdue.

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Friends that went to Baylor tell me they will get smoked today

ok st -3 at the half 

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My Cy Young futures disappeared at my local and agent status support can’t find any record of them being deleted 

i took no screenshot :kicksrock:

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7 minutes ago, LOCO said:

Friends that went to Baylor tell me they will get smoked today

ok st -3 at the half 

I like this, already got OkSt for the game at - 4.5

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55 minutes ago, LOCO said:

Friends that went to Baylor tell me they will get smoked today

ok st -3 at the half 

Most crowded trade of the day

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Coach James Franklin career 21-12-2 (.636) O/U against teams that allow less than 20 points per game. When those opponents also averaged less than 33 ppg on offense: 16-3 O/U (avg total 46).

Michigan/Penn State o47 -105

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Franklin coached 111 career games and never had 5 in a row go under the total.

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Since 2008 Jim Harbaugh's games as the underdog have gone 17-4-1 to the over and 16-0-1 when the opponent scored 28 or more.

Penn State o27 -110

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6 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

My Cy Young futures disappeared at my local and agent status support can’t find any record of them being deleted 

i took no screenshot :kicksrock:

wtf

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3 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:
8 hours ago, facook said:

You talked me into Purdue.

:slaphands: 

:suds:

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3 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

Wait Cal was favored by 11

Other than getting boat-raced by Utah at home last week, the Beavs have actually been pretty good at covering this year.  I took the 11 but didn't have the gonads to take them ml unfortunately.

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9 hours ago, The Ref said:

Only a few games I like tomorrow but some of them I like a bunch.

if you can get Navy at -14.5 still buy it down to -14 sit back and watch the show.  I think they kill USF.

People still haven’t come around on the fact that Tulane might be the best non P5 team out there.  The went into auburn and have them a handfull. Brady White is a mediocre QB and Taylor isn’t playing yet again.  +4.5 and +160.  Good chance to win outright.

Ore st is trash.   Give me Cal -11

Keep an eye on the Houston QB situation.  If Tune plays -12.5 1H is a steal.  If not it’s a no play.

Bet LSU every week - not stoping now -18.5

 

I was with you on all of these but OSU.  Hoping we're right on Tulane.  A bit afraid it's the overbet "sharp" play just like Ok St was today (I was on them too, they are about to lose outright).

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Favorites vs Matt Luke 14-2 avg 41 ppg. Only twice scored less than 31 points.

Texas A&M o30½ -115

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1 hour ago, facook said:
11 hours ago, The Ref said:

Only a few games I like tomorrow but some of them I like a bunch.

if you can get Navy at -14.5 still buy it down to -14 sit back and watch the show.  I think they kill USF.

People still haven’t come around on the fact that Tulane might be the best non P5 team out there.  The went into auburn and have them a handfull. Brady White is a mediocre QB and Taylor isn’t playing yet again.  +4.5 and +160.  Good chance to win outright.

Ore st is trash.   Give me Cal -11

Bet LSU every week - not stoping now -18.5

 

I was with you on all of these but OSU.  Hoping we're right on Tulane.  A bit afraid it's the overbet "sharp" play just like Ok St was today (I was on them too, they are about to lose outright).

Narrator: They were.

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Teams averaging less than 38 ppg on offense who also allow less than 32 ppg on defense: 19-2 to the under versus Kalani Sitake and BYU.

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Really want to fade A&M in the 2H, but that entire game just smells like crap. They're giving Old Mrs. +3 in the 2H, same as the original full game spread.

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I'd lay 10 with the Jags. Cincy probably score 10 points.

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I'd risk money on Frank Reich after a bye week. I bet he jump out to a quick lead.

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I think that's a good spot for the Bears off the bye after the overseas game. Plus a couple games' worth of tape on Teddy.

I might back away from this a little bit as Sean Payton has a filthy ATS record as the underdog. Filthy as in they usually cover.

Edited by ChainsawU

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Sagarin's number says the Colts should be catching a couple points on the spread. Strong line for them. He lists Texans #8 versus Colts at #22 in the rankings. Hopefully that Colts' number gets better by morning and isn't as expensive to buy. Sagarin also lists Patriots as the #1 team, despite their 32nd-ranked strength of schedule. His #2 team in the NFL is the 49ers. You know what that means. Pats/Niners Super Bowl!

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Do you think the Ravens can sneak in and get a win?

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5 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

wtf

Apparently a glitch in the matrix they’re back 

 

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12 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

Do you think the Ravens can sneak in and get a win?

maybe, but I will take the points.........

 

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[465129] TOTAL o6½-120 (COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY) vrs COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY))
[463139] TOTAL o66½+110 (JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[463137] TOTAL o½+140 (JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
[459066] TOTAL u31½-155 (T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[455093] TOTAL o69½-110 (MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[453085] TOTAL o17½-110 (DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469065] TOTAL o49½-110 (HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469101] TOTAL o73½-135 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469097] TOTAL o½+115 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
 

I probably should not play 8 overs and 1 under..... I really have a tough time playing unders with props because I feel like you are one busted play away from getting hosed - particularly on yardage totals. I play these for anywhere from .25 to .5 of what I usually play a side for, fwiw. 

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sides today:

Houston +1, Miami +17, Atlanta +3 , CIncy +4 for the early games

Tennessee - 2.5, Baltimore +3 for late games.

GLTA
AB

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Just now, Dan Lambskin said:

I think the Lions get blown out today 

You spelled Redskins wrong. 👍🏻 Shanahan gonna run it up as much as he can. 

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