Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
The Ref

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Last one out Turn off the lights

Recommended Posts

On 1/25/2020 at 2:54 PM, hooter311 said:

Was in Jamaica and couldn't post, but I also lost a lot of money on Pennington.

Good thing you ain’t there today....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, modogg said:

i went 5-0 on this particular card, with NFL just about done, will look to get back in to talking some in here and making some cash off the MMA scene again

Did you stay away during NFL because you don't like us during football season?

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kaepernick to be mentioned +100 

All the  anthem overs at 115/117/119/121/123 seconds 

Under 27 1H

Edited by [icon]
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, greedygoat said:

I’m glad you posted this. I was leaning Virginia but now I will just stay away.

FSU specifically - just something that really stuck out in the ocean of data I dove into this morning. Facing teams who allow very few points is a spot they've been good in and they've got a 2-1 rest advantage. I thought they'd get 60 and win, and wasn't subsequently surprised to see them lined at 58 on the TT

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seminoles @ Virginia Cavaliers
Full Time Result (OT not Inc)
Draw +1281

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Kaepernick to be mentioned +100 

All the  anthem overs at 115/117/119/121/123 seconds 

+255 at 5d

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ChainsawU said:

Seminoles @ Virginia Cavaliers
Full Time Result (OT not Inc)
Draw +1281

Where is this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, [icon] said:

Kaepernick to be mentioned +100 

All the  anthem overs at 115/117/119/121/123 seconds 

Under 27 1H

why anthem overs

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

why anthem overs

Scott Barrett had a short tread on it, but apparently she's been trending longer as she ages, also trends longer on bigger stages. 

Initial line was 120sec. He felt like 125-130 was the number and someone suggested it could run as long as 140-150 range. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Scott Barrett had a short tread on it, but apparently she's been trending longer as she ages, also trends longer on bigger stages. 

Initial line was 120sec. He felt like 125-130 was the number and someone suggested it could run as long as 140-150 range. 

Saw this circulating on Twitter a few days ago

Her film:

2017 (McGregor-Mayweather): 2:12

2015 (Game 4 of World Series): 1:58

2012 (Game 4 of World Series): 1:51

2011 (Game 5 of World Series): 1:48

2008 (some Cowboys game): 1:52

2007 (some MMA show): 1:33

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, modogg said:

i went 5-0 on this particular card, with NFL just about done, will look to get back in to talking some in here and making some cash off the MMA scene again

I went 8-1 somehow including some of the undercard, which doesnt come close making up for all the times I've gone 1-4. But betting on the slight dog with much more experience was money. 

  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tonydead said:

KC is yellow Gatorade and the little bit of data on the 49ers leans clear, btw. Who has the spreadsheet? @Tiger Fan?

FWIW Andy R had a red gatorade beside him at the podium yesterday.  But I am a Niners fan and think they will go with water and there is a CHANCE the Chiefs would go water as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok these props are getting out of hand. 

Will J-lo show butt cleavage?  I dont even know what that is. 

Will Troy or Joe speak spanish? wat?

Will L.Dawson be shown smoking a cigarette at halftime? (Halftime does not count towards wager) sounds like a trap

Edited by tonydead
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, facook said:

Did you stay away during NFL because you don't like us during football season?

lost my confidence for a bit with the picks so laid low with talking about them. i am sure if i look over the past few years my MMA picks hit at a lower rate during NFL season when i try to juggle both

  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, tonydead said:

KC is yellow Gatorade and the little bit of data on the 49ers leans clear, btw. Who has the spreadsheet? @Tiger Fan?

No time this year.  will try to post what i have this weekend

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, The Ref said:

Good thing you ain’t there today....

No kidding.  I'm so Midwest it was already a trip staring at such a big ocean from such a small island. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, [icon] said:

Kaepernick to be mentioned +100 

All the  anthem overs at 115/117/119/121/123 seconds 

Under 27 1H

I was on the wrong side of the similar line years back when the Packers went to the super bowl with Rodgers for the first time.

Favre was never mentioned, lost way more then I should have.  Would guess the nfl wants none of Kaepernick's stench on their broadcast.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like a lot of these prop bets could be easily cheated. Like insider trading. 

Like sing the anthem a little slow on purpose and have your buddy place a bet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, hooter311 said:

I was on the wrong side of the similar line years back when the Packers went to the super bowl with Rodgers for the first time.

Favre was never mentioned, lost way more then I should have.  Would guess the nfl wants none of Kaepernick's stench on their broadcast.

I feel that, and that's the only thing that worries me. However the 9ers being in it feels like they GOTTA at least mention him in passing but who knows. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, [icon] said:

Scott Barrett had a short tread on it, but apparently she's been trending longer as she ages, also trends longer on bigger stages. 

Initial line was 120sec. He felt like 125-130 was the number and someone suggested it could run as long as 140-150 range. 

I mentioned it upthread, but I don't think you can discount whether she's wasted or sober.   She used to sing short, got longer while she was an addict, and now she's back from rehab.  I think she speeds it up again sober.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, [icon] said:

I feel that, and that's the only thing that worries me. However the 9ers being in it feels like they GOTTA at least mention him in passing but who knows. 

I understand your thinking and it really is a logical take.  But this is the NFL's crown jewel.  I doubt if anything even remotely controversial is allowed as part of this huge production.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Penguin said:

Saw this circulating on Twitter a few days ago

Her film:

2017 (McGregor-Mayweather): 2:12

2015 (Game 4 of World Series): 1:58

2012 (Game 4 of World Series): 1:51

2011 (Game 5 of World Series): 1:48

2008 (some Cowboys game): 1:52

2007 (some MMA show): 1:33

I posted on this a few pages back.  There were a few reasons why that 2017 Performace ran so long.  It was indoors with no soundtrack backup and the crowd was white hot for the fight ahead and obviously super loud to the point where she had to “stop” a few times.  That won’t be the case at the SB. 

2:04 is a fair guess and that’s right where the market is, but I’d lean slightly to the under esp at +odds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, NREC34 said:

It seems like a lot of these prop bets could be easily cheated. Like insider trading. 

Like sing the anthem a little slow on purpose and have your buddy place a bet.

Yes and no.  But once the rehearsal is done it’s locked in.  They have this stuff timed down to the second.  There is no “sing it a little slow”.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, NREC34 said:

It seems like a lot of these prop bets could be easily cheated. Like insider trading. 

Like sing the anthem a little slow on purpose and have your buddy place a bet.

That’s why most places have like $20 limits 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only found these at Mybookie, and at a $25 limit, but they should all be locks except the bloomberg one....which hasn't leaked yet but is reportedly very anti trump.

 

Times Bloomberg will say Trump - 2
Weathertech before Turkish -200
Gay Couple yes -260
NY Life before turbo tax -350
under 92.5 total commercials

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UAB/UTSA o147 -110

+600 (ties push)
1. UTSA -10
2. OPEN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/28/2020 at 5:35 PM, facook said:

Where is this?

I found those in the sports betting prime tab up top sportsbook -> sports betting prime

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Book just used kenpom number for spread and total but I think it'll be 80-70 the way UTSA mash at home. Fade UAB is just cherry on top and feels like good timing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jersey # of first player to score a TD, UNDER 26.5, -110

(Players under 26.5 are both QBs, the Chiefs RBs, Tyreek Hill, Tevin Coleman, etc.)

:shrug:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, eoMMan said:

Jersey # of first player to score a TD, UNDER 26.5, -110

(Players under 26.5 are both QBs, the Chiefs RBs, Tyreek Hill, Tevin Coleman, etc.)

:shrug:

What number is Kendrick Bourne?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

That’s why most places have like $20 limits 

There goes my plans to steal the Oscar envelopes and take a peak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dan Lambskin said:

What number is Kendrick Bourne?

He's # 84.  Kittle is over too at #85 and Mostert is #31.  But other notable 49er numbers....

Deebo Samuel #19

Emmanuel Sanders #17

Dante Pettis #18

Richie James #13

Coleman #26

Breida #22

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Backup TEs always seem to have a play the team has been saving up all year.  Usually that's a high number.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+600 ties push

  1. Iowa/Maryland o151
  2. OPEN

Maryland o74½ -110
Texas San Antonio o74½ -110

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/28/2020 at 4:33 PM, greedygoat said:

I’m glad you posted this. I was leaning Virginia but now I will just stay away.

I realize now that it's hard to beat the same team twice in the same month, so kinda part of why I faded Iowa tonight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think tomorrow we will start to see/hear about pregame/halftime.... friday is rehearsal if I remember right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Think tomorrow we will start to see/hear about pregame/halftime.... friday is rehearsal if I remember right.

Yea who went this year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/29/2020 at 9:35 AM, NREC34 said:

It seems like a lot of these prop bets could be easily cheated. Like insider trading. Like sing the anthem a little slow on purpose and have your buddy place a bet.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/752111-official-ffa-wagering-thread-playoffs-playoffs/page/125/?tab=comments#comment-19811692

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UTSA had been perfect ATS in 16 home games hosting CUSA going back to Feb 2018. It was time for that to end. Look like UAB halftime adjustments just pulled them out of that two-game tailspin. Line move pretty much telegraphed the result of that one. Dude Will Butler career-high scoring night I didn't think that dude was gonna even play

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

L4 seasons Iowa now 1-9 on the road after playing consecutive home games. Get comfortable on that home court and then suck when they have to leave. In the win they allowed 69. In the nine losses they allowed 90±4. Situation comes again March 8 at Illinois, last game regular season. And speaking of Illinois, Iowa host them on Sunday. I think that game goes way over too and plan on closing the +600 with that total, hoping 157 or better (thinking it'll probably be 148)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under anthem caught a huge bid the last 2 hours - under 123.5 now favored

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

 

Sadly my friend got out of this business. Those were good times. I usually got the o/u on the anthem time, the number of jets in the flyover, and the halftime set list by Monday or Tuesday and we'd have an email chain going of what books were taking bets so we could coordinate hitting them without killing the goose. The only issue we had was some books used to count the anthem differently, some went by first musical note, some went by the start of "Oh say...", and we just knew the length of the backing track. So our only "gamble" was when the times the books were within a few seconds of the real time and wondering how they'd count it. Came close to backfiring a couple of times, and there's no way you can really argue with the sportsbook that said their guy in the lounge timed it with the stopwatch app on his phone and got one time, and us trying to say "yeah, but the mp3 file they used at the stadium was this other time".

An old, old rumor was, at one point in the past, the coin flip on TV was "rigged". That is, they used a commemorative coin, and the ref would say "this side is heads, this side is tails", but not show it to the TV cameras. He'd then flip it and declare a winner... but... the real flip had happened half an hour before to allow the teams to plan their first drive strategy. The ref would just say whatever side landed up was "heads" or whatever and then give whatever team had won the real flip the ball. I don't think this is a thing anymore, and I wonder if it was ever real, or, if the props industry changed how it was done. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   1 member