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Anyone have a bookmaker account?  Supposedly the under 120 is -180 now

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Walking Boot that is incredible brother. The time you spent thinking about it and the complexity behind that entire (multi-person) thought process.. anytime you can look back on something and "wonder if was ever even real" you were living in that moment brother nice job

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6 hours ago, The Ref said:

Under anthem caught a huge bid the last 2 hours - under 123.5 now favored

Local still has at +odds but they typically frown on exploiting things like that so just gonna leave it alone 

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4 hours ago, The Ref said:

Anyone have a bookmaker account?  Supposedly the under 120 is -180 now

And 1k limits

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Call it a hunch.  I’m almost always about the QB wins the award and I’m sure it will be true again this year.  That said I just Sprinkled the infield with SF D players MVP.  Bosa, Sherman, Ford, Buckner, Alexander, Armsted & Warner.

I think there is a path for one of these guys to win and other than Bosa and Sherman there is some very long odds.

 

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Chiefs 27-8 in games Mahomes attempts a pass
More than 20 rushing attempts as a team: 26-1
Games with fewer than 21 rush attempts: 1-7

When they lost to the Colts this season they only ran the ball 14 times compared to the Colts' 45 attempts. When they lost to the Texans this season they only ran the ball 11 times compared to the Texans' 41 attempts. The 20:12 time of possession in that Texans game was Chiefs' lowest in a home game in over twenty years. Mahomes has never lost a game when the Chiefs had more rushing attempts than the other team, but only 10-8 when they don't.

On the flip side, the Seahawks and Ravens both rushed over 30 times per game when they beat SF this season. Since Garoppolo and Shanahan hooked up, five of their six losses came when the opposing team was able to run it 28+ times. When their opponents ran the ball less than 28 times a game Garoppolo and Shanahan 17-1.

When the Chiefs beat the 49ers last season they ran the ball exactly 28 times.

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5 hours ago, The Ref said:

Call it a hunch.  I’m almost always about the QB wins the award and I’m sure it will be true again this year.  That said I just Sprinkled the infield with SF D players MVP.  Bosa, Sherman, Ford, Buckner, Alexander, Armsted & Warner.

I think there is a path for one of these guys to win and other than Bosa and Sherman there is some very long odds.

 

I'm on Jimmy G +350

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anthem over 110.5 at MB and 115.5 at 5D if you want to middle

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3 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

I'm on Jimmy G +350

Considering his team is about +105 and qbs usually win the mvp this seems like a good value.

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Mahomes 1st TD +2750 at nitrogen, everyone else sitting at +1600 ish

Also a dab on Kittle +1000

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On 1/28/2020 at 8:28 PM, greedygoat said:

5-2 on posted CBB plays, Ole Miss +5. 

6-2 on posted CBB plays, Michigan -2 and USC -1. 

Edited by greedygoat

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22 minutes ago, greedygoat said:

6-2 on posted CBB plays, Michigan -2 and USC -1. 

You are the one following a system taking favored Unranked home teams against ranked teams on the road right?  I thought I read that somewhere up thread.  If that’s the case, does Michigan qualify here since it’s neutral site?

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17 minutes ago, ditka...mike ditka said:

You are the one following a system taking favored Unranked home teams against ranked teams on the road right?  I thought I read that somewhere up thread.  If that’s the case, does Michigan qualify here since it’s neutral site?

Yes, that was me. Michigan would not qualify, I just like them to win. 

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73% of bets and 62% of $ on Chiefs on FanDuel 

85% of $ is on the over

I assume a large % of people haven’t wagered yet?

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28 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

73% of bets and 62% of $ on Chiefs on FanDuel 

85% of $ is on the over

I assume a large % of people haven’t wagered yet?

Pretty much every tout I've seen is on 49ers and under.  Who do you fade?  

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I think Darwin Thompson is a good bet on all his props. KC is going to put the ball in the hands of players with speed to make plays.

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I'm on Chiefs and Under

 

Anybody who says they know how this game plays out is selling you something.   

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I'm on Chiefs and Under

 

Anybody who says they know how this game plays out is selling you something.   

Even you?

:oldunsure:

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Just now, TripItUp said:

I'm on Chiefs and Under

 

Anybody who says they know how this game plays out is selling you something.   

I think the CHiefs figured out last game they have to get Mahomes out of the pocket to throw and run more than he has in the past.  Usually, the team with best RB and D wins the SB.  Henry ran great for 3 games and then they forced Tenn to throw.   If they can do that here, and I think they can, I see a 41-31 type game for KC.  Mahomes is just too good.

I really like ov66 at +300.

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7 minutes ago, Hoos First said:

I think Darwin Thompson is a good bet on all his props. KC is going to put the ball in the hands of players with speed to make plays.

Somewhat agree, I think if you give Reid time he draws up unconventional plays to attack the zone.   Not saying it will be effective.

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6 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

I think the CHiefs figured out last game they have to get Mahomes out of the pocket to throw and run more than he has in the past.  Usually, the team with best RB and D wins the SB.  Henry ran great for 3 games and then they forced Tenn to throw.   If they can do that here, and I think they can, I see a 41-31 type game for KC.  Mahomes is just too good.

I really like ov66 at +300.

My problem with the over.

The books set the total knowing the public will come in on the over.  The original line was 51, which means the real line according to oddsmakers is probably somewhere around 49/50.  But they have to set it higher to get anything remotely close to 50/50 and they won't be getting that as of right now where over 70% is still on the over.  Many books wanted over action.

 

Edited by TripItUp

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

My problem with the over.

The books set the total knowing the public will come in on the over.  The original line was 51, which means the real line according to oddsmakers is probably somewhere around 49/50.  But they have to set it higher to get anything remotely close to 50/50 and they won't be getting that as of right now where over 70% is still on the over.  Many books wanted over action.

 

I get that, and I still think the game blows past it pretty easily.   SF run D is too good.  KC will have to pass out of the gate to set up the run later in the game.  SF can be passed on.  If KC comes out trying to establish a run, it plays right into the SF D and their game plan.   KC has to force SF out of their run game for them to have a chance IMO.  And KC did that vs TENN.

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6 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

I get that, and I still think the game blows past it pretty easily.   SF run D is too good.  KC will have to pass out of the gate to set up the run later in the game.  SF can be passed on.  If KC comes out trying to establish a run, it plays right into the SF D and their game plan.   KC has to force SF out of their run game for them to have a chance IMO.  And KC did that vs TENN.

Throwing out the oddsmaker strategy...here are the arguments for the under.

1.  Pats D will be the model for slowing KC as it was effective earlier this year and Niners D is even better than Pats D.

2.  Niners lead will swallow time with effective run game

3.  Chiefs D is wildly underrated when healthy, see almost any metrics for last 6-8 weeks with key pro bowlers in the lineup.

Edited by TripItUp
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I like SF to win if it’s under. 

KC should win if it’s over. 

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13 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Throwing out the oddsmaker strategy...here are the arguments for the under.

1.  Pats D will be the model for slowing KC as it was effective earlier this year and Niners D is even better than Pats D.

2.  Niners lead will swallow time with effective run game

3.  Chiefs D is wildly underrated when healthy, see almost any metrics for last 6-8 weeks with key pro bowlers in the lineup.

Pats pass D was a lot better then SF pass D.  SF and NE had great run D's.   KC D is playing much better last 8 weeks for sure.  Mahomes blasts through it all and Jimmy G forced to throw in the 4th.     This could be a SF/NO type of game easily.  

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2 hours ago, Hoos First said:

I think Darwin Thompson is a good bet on all his props. KC is going to put the ball in the hands of players with speed to make plays.

ill lose a lot if this happens

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On 1/31/2020 at 2:38 PM, The Ref said:

Under anthem caught a huge bid the last 2 hours - under 123.5 now favored

just looked and i see it set at 116 at some places. What the hell?

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2 hours ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Pats pass D was a lot better then SF pass D.  SF and NE had great run D's.   KC D is playing much better last 8 weeks for sure.  Mahomes blasts through it all and Jimmy G forced to throw in the 4th.     This could be a SF/NO type of game easily.  

SF pass D was #1 in the NFL.  Pats were second.

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37 minutes ago, -fish- said:

SF pass D was #1 in the NFL.  Pats were second.

in yards.  In TD's they were 13th (23), Pats 1st (13) :D.   

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Is it me or does the Chiefs team remind you of the Buffalo Bills team of the 90's?

Edited by GROOT

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Since Garoppolo and Shanahan hooked up they're 15-12 to the over:
When the opposing team sees the red zone 3+ times: 14-2 O/U 57±14 ppg
When the opposing team doesn't reach the red zone more than twice: 1-10 O/U 37±14 ppg

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3 hours ago, GROOT said:

Is it me or does the Chiefs team remind you of the Buffalo Bills team of the 90's?

What's up brother. How do you mean. Like they get to the big game but walk away empty? That's a common theme I've noticed with Andy Reid, if that's what you're up to. Yo that was a good advice when you said "lay the wood" on KC vs Houston. Congrats on that you should share more wood-themed ideas

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Guys I started a side business making t-shirts. Just a little side hustle - legit business entity, but just me doing it. If you ever want shirts made hit me up. Literally any graphic you have I can put on any garment. Hoodies, jackets, all that. Invoice via PayPal, no order too big or too small. I can design it too, anything you want, just wanted to let you know

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7 hours ago, GROOT said:

Is it me or does the Chiefs team remind you of the Buffalo Bills team of the 90's?

Bills of the 90s were way better

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Went to the sportsbook in person last night to see if I could pick off any bad lines, pretty underwhelming experience.  Was hoping to find some stale numbers but they had a pretty standard menu of bets available.  Good news is the small area they had converted to a "sports lounge" was packed so business is good which I hope means they'll expand their little operation.  Really need the ability to see their menu of bets online.

Edited by lumpy19
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15 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

Went to the sportsbook in person last night to see if I could pick off any bad lines, pretty underwhelming experience.  Was hoping to find some stale numbers but they had a pretty standard menu of bets available.  Good news is the small area they had converted to a "sports lounge" was packed so business is good which I hope means they'll expand their little operation.  Really need the ability to see their menu of bets online.

Indiana has a bet builder that isn’t even an app but does allow you to see everything and get a barcode they scan at the ticket counter. 
 

https://c3-static.kambi.com/client/pivusinrl-law/index-retail-barcode.html#event/1006086606
 

 

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Indiana has a bet builder that isn’t even an app but does allow you to see everything and get a barcode they scan at the ticket counter. 
 

https://c3-static.kambi.com/client/pivusinrl-law/index-retail-barcode.html#event/1006086606
 

 

Awesome thank you, thats the exact same interface I saw on the kiosks last night

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Nitrogen has Russell Westbrook PRA vs Mahomes pass attempts, even at -182 I like Westbrook here

They also have a nice price on u55 -121

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On 1/28/2020 at 9:07 PM, facook said:

FWIW Andy R had a red gatorade beside him at the podium yesterday.  But I am a Niners fan and think they will go with water and there is a CHANCE the Chiefs would go water as well.

purple gatorade +100 now

 

Clear/water +750

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6 hours ago, ChainsawU said:

What's up brother. How do you mean. Like they get to the big game but walk away empty? That's a common theme I've noticed with Andy Reid, if that's what you're up to. Yo that was a good advice when you said "lay the wood" on KC vs Houston. Congrats on that you should share more wood-themed ideas

I remember Jim Kelly and company could score so fast. The last team a Chiefs winning formula is likely to work...is against the 49ers. They may run into a "buzzsaw" today. I'm leaning 49ers.

Edited by GROOT

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4 minutes ago, GROOT said:

I remember Jim Kelly and company could score so fast. The last team a Chiefs winning formula is likely to work...is against the 49ers. They may run into a "buzzsaw" today. I'm leaning 49ers.

I saw as high as +112 on the ML.

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I’ve turned $50 into $282 since the playoffs started. I’m thinking about SF money line/ under parlay +270

If I put $200 on this and it hits I would have over a grand. 

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free money at BOL and sportsbetting.  type: 999995 into the rotation # field.  SB 54 winner to score in regular season opener.  $25 max at each place.

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4 hours ago, Tiger Fan said:

purple gatorade +100 now

 

Clear/water +750

Yeah I know jack.  Bet Lebron points over Mahomes attempts...Lebron got 15.  And Demi gonna sing the Anthem in like 97 seconds after I went large on an over 119.5/Trump elected parlay.  I really ought to post ALL of my early leans for you guys to fade.  

Go Niners.

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