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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (12 Viewers)

Had my best football season ever.   

On to college hoops, where I had my best season ever in 2019...so far in 2020 mixed results, but it has my full attention now.

Today's card

UNC +8.5 (live dog with Cole Back)

Eastern Washington ML (really like)

Baylor -6.5 (fading the popular dog here, baylor has been crushing ATS)

Kansas -14.5 (Another fade of a popular dog)

 
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Long shot here...anyone get an accurate count on # of commercials?  5D graded u92.5 a loser..saying there were 103.  I've got two different links that show two different numbers...albeit both under

 
@hooter311 how are you feeling about Fury/Wilder II? I already got down on Wilder (for the first time ever, I think), but I'm not feeling super-great about it. But: Wilder has improved in his two rematches. He's always prepared, whereas Fury's moved on from his (very good imo) former trainer, for Sugar Hill, who doesn't impress me nearly as much. But, man, he confounded Wilder in that first fight. And it's very clear that Wilder had thought he'd lost when the fight ended.

This is a really good breakdown for anyone who's interested in nuts and bolts stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sodG3EYVT38

 
@hooter311 how are you feeling about Fury/Wilder II? I already got down on Wilder (for the first time ever, I think), but I'm not feeling super-great about it. But: Wilder has improved in his two rematches. He's always prepared, whereas Fury's moved on from his (very good imo) former trainer, for Sugar Hill, who doesn't impress me nearly as much. But, man, he confounded Wilder in that first fight. And it's very clear that Wilder had thought he'd lost when the fight ended.

This is a really good breakdown for anyone who's interested in nuts and bolts stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sodG3EYVT38
It's a coin toss.  Fury the better boxer, but Wilder connects and it can be lights out.   I'd typically bet the boxer in these instances.

 
@hooter311 how are you feeling about Fury/Wilder II? I already got down on Wilder (for the first time ever, I think), but I'm not feeling super-great about it. But: Wilder has improved in his two rematches. He's always prepared, whereas Fury's moved on from his (very good imo) former trainer, for Sugar Hill, who doesn't impress me nearly as much. But, man, he confounded Wilder in that first fight. And it's very clear that Wilder had thought he'd lost when the fight ended.

This is a really good breakdown for anyone who's interested in nuts and bolts stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sodG3EYVT38
Approaching the fight almost identically.  All the value was on Fury the way the first fight was lined.  Now that it's a coin flip I've leaned Wilder the entire time.  

Doesn't seem that Fury has given that cut above his eye enough time to heal and train properly, that alone has me on Wilder up to -130.  Fury switching head trainers immediately before the biggest fight of his life also leaves me with questions.

Fury has the skills and the heart, but like the other poster said......Wilder has the POWER.  Not like early round power like we see in MMA but punches poststamped straight from the devil's lair type of power.

ETA:  I did happen to watch that same breakdown you posted last night.  The opportunity for the uppercut under the right hook for Fury certainly did seem like it would be there.

 
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Approaching the fight almost identically.  All the value was on Fury the way the first fight was lined.  Now that it's a coin flip I've leaned Wilder the entire time.  

Doesn't seem that Fury has given that cut above his eye enough time to heal and train properly, that alone has me on Wilder up to -130.  Fury switching head trainers immediately before the biggest fight of his life also leaves me with questions.

Fury has the skills and the heart, but like the other poster said......Wilder has the POWER.  Not like early round power like we see in MMA but punches poststamped straight from the devil's lair type of power.

ETA:  I did happen to watch that same breakdown you posted last night.  The opportunity for the uppercut under the right hook for Fury certainly did seem like it would be there.
you think Reyes has a chance against Jones 2nd time around? I was going to bet on Jones but -490 is way too much for this one. I got money on Latifi and someone else so far. just started looking a little last night

 
Approaching the fight almost identically.  All the value was on Fury the way the first fight was lined.  Now that it's a coin flip I've leaned Wilder the entire time.  

Doesn't seem that Fury has given that cut above his eye enough time to heal and train properly, that alone has me on Wilder up to -130.  Fury switching head trainers immediately before the biggest fight of his life also leaves me with questions.

Fury has the skills and the heart, but like the other poster said......Wilder has the POWER.  Not like early round power like we see in MMA but punches poststamped straight from the devil's lair type of power.

ETA:  I did happen to watch that same breakdown you posted last night.  The opportunity for the uppercut under the right hook for Fury certainly did seem like it would be there.
I don't think he has much of a choice regarding the cut, this fight was in place before that meaningless Wallin fight. The one thing about that cut that makes me think it won't be much of a worry is that Wilder's left hook isn't terribly lethal. Another thing that worries me about Wilder is that he's falling more and more in love with the belief that he's inevitably going to get the ko. I think he only threw 3 straight rights against Ortiz. In 7 rounds! It's his best punch! And subsequently, he doesn't seem to feel any sort of urgency. Most knockout-oriented fighters break you down over the course of a fight, with Wilder it seems like it can happen in R1 just as easily as R12, although I do think that Fury was able to recover in the last fight because he hadn't accumulated a lot of damage up until the point in the 12th where he got dropped. Even the first knockdown was an equilibrium shot, you just have to shake those off and you're typically fine.

I think he needs to be busier, and worry less about being perfect. He also needs to work downstairs, one thing that I took from that Wallin fight was that for as tough as it is to land on Fury's chin, his midsection is always there to be hit. I would think that that would help slow Fury down and make it easier for him to catch him later in the fight, but I think it's going to be more or less the same Wilder and the same Fury -- despite his talk of a 2nd round KO -- the second go-around.

 
facook said:
Problem is the won't have these kind of props in legal US casinos.  Just not nearly as wide a selection.
The legal online sites in the US have TONS of props. Or at least did for the SB

 
The legal online sites in the US have TONS of props. Or at least did for the SB
Had tons all season. Maybe not stuff as weird as the super bowl, but our casino had most player props up by Friday with real limits and added tackles and other stuff Saturday all year. 

 
The legal online sites in the US have TONS of props. Or at least did for the SB
Right.  My point was they can't post "these kind", meaning the novelty stuff.  Will Tom Brady be mentioned, how many times showing Mike Shanahan, etc.  Has to be stuff that can be verified in a box score.

 
modogg said:
you think Reyes has a chance against Jones 2nd time around? I was going to bet on Jones but -490 is way too much for this one. I got money on Latifi and someone else so far. just started looking a little last night
Using Morono and Lingo in a number of parlays.  Also fairly confident in Lee and Adams.

I've lost more than most fading Jones, but Santos got close last time and Reyes should be more like +180.

Latifi has an obvious path to victory being the faster fighter and working the body.  Like the favorites in the coinflip matchups except for I favor Ige over Bectic.

 
2 days until XFL!!
Tampa - 2.5, Houston -5.5 are your plays to fade.

Also hit Tampa +400 for the Xuper Bowl.  I'm buying into the "best non-traditional nfl coach will work" theory.  Trestman has been an outstanding offensive guy in CFL.  Think it translates here.  (June Jones would be my #2.)

 
Since Garoppolo and Shanahan hooked up, five of their six losses came when the opposing team was able to run it 28+ times. When their opponents ran the ball less than 28 times a game Garoppolo and Shanahan 17-1.
Including the three kneel downs Chiefs totaled 29 rushing attempts.

 
Since the 2016 season the Ivy League has held a postseason tournament. During that time Harvard 6-0 SU and ATS against Yale in the regular season, but 0-2 SU and ATS in the tournament. Also 8-0 to the over after two consecutive losses during that same time. Harvard HC Tommy Amaker 9-3 SU and ATS at Yale (8-0 ATS L8 since 2012).

Harvard +5 -105

 
Tampa - 2.5, Houston -5.5 are your plays to fade.

Also hit Tampa +400 for the Xuper Bowl.  I'm buying into the "best non-traditional nfl coach will work" theory.  Trestman has been an outstanding offensive guy in CFL.  Think it translates here.  (June Jones would be my #2.)
Was thinking of just betting every dog this weekend.  No way they can actually know how all this will play out

 
Including the three kneel downs Chiefs totaled 29 rushing attempts.
After reading the post you quoted I felt even better about my love for the 9ers. I didn’t think Reid would run it that much. I put a few dollars on Williams at 32-1 for mvp just in case. I watched the stupid postgame show thinking he had a chance but no dice lol

 
Well, this turned into a degenerate Friday pretty fast.

Morono is -340 on bm, I'd cap him closer to -450.  Checked IA lines and they have -260 available.   

Waterloo here I come!

 

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