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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (15 Viewers)

ChainsawU said:
I am going to guess it's a pick-em spread tomorrow night in the CFL, with Edmonton getting the advantage due to rest - they're off the bye week while the Lions are playing in their 5th-consecutive week to start the season in addition to the shortest turnaround they've had between games - 5 days, the shortest turnaround that CFL teams have to make between two games. Lines haven't dropped yet, but I'd be super happy with Eskimos straight up at -110.

ETA July 10 2:35PM CST official guess/final answer: Eskimos -1 -110 and o55.5 -110.. Can't wait to see what drops. If Eskimos end up catching points it's gonna be super fishy.. wouldn't actually be surprised to see a -4 for the rested road team versus a team that just played 5 days ago, playing their 5th-consecutive game in a 5-week span, and coming off three consecutive road games..
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Eskimos -4.5.  You nailed the total.

 
facook said:
Eskimos -4.5
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I was having wishful thinking on the pick'em. Obviously the book values rest over historical results & home court advantage. That's good though. I think the 2 best bets are Eskimo ATS and the under on the Lions' team total. I think BC max out at 25. Edmonton will need 20 to win SU and about 26 to cover the spread. Eskimo average over 30 ppg and that's not gonna be good for trying to hit the o55. I'll probably do 1Q, 1H and FG ATS bets on the fave, and then that u25 team total fade on BC. I'd prefer 1Q moneyline, 1H -2.5, and -4.5 full game on the favorite though. Slight lean toward seeing BC getting potentially shut out in the 1Q and the majority of scoring occurring 4Q..

 
ChainsawU said:
I was having wishful thinking on the pick'em. Obviously the book values rest over historical results & home court advantage. That's good though. I think the 2 best bets are Eskimo ATS and the under on the Lions' team total. I think BC max out at 25. Edmonton will need 20 to win SU and about 26 to cover the spread. Eskimo average over 30 ppg and that's not gonna be good for trying to hit the o55. I'll probably do 1Q, 1H and FG ATS bets on the fave, and then that u25 team total fade on BC. I'd prefer 1Q moneyline, 1H -2.5, and -4.5 full game on the favorite though. Slight lean toward seeing BC getting potentially shut out in the 1Q and the majority of scoring occurring 4Q..
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It's falling...down to 3.5 now.  Was 4 a bit earlier.

 
facook said:
It's falling...down to 3.5 now.  Was 4 a bit earlier.
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Yeah, the Lions felt like they had a little juice coming into this game. Remember we backed them when they went into Calgary and almost beat the Stampeders in week 3 - a game they were winning real big early (15-0 1Q and 22-10 1H) before Calgary's backup QB Arbuckle came in and dominated the 4Q. Then last week they barely squeaked out the win at Toronto (+8) on that "missed field goal for the 1-point win" situation that occurred. So they got some juice coming into this game, and home field advantage (more so as the westernmost CFL team) AND their QB is the league's highest-paid player. So that juice - that perception - is what I was hoping would get us some value on Edmonton and provide an Eskimo -1 popping off in the beginning. Reality is that it's a division matchup with a strongly-lined road favorite off a bye week against a home team that hasn't had a lot of time to get their isht together lately. But.. as narratives and hype tend to influence lines, let's wait and see what the number is before kickoff before we buy it. A simple ATS win tomorrow would get me confident and hyped for more action-junkie type #### for Friday and Saturday. And you been doing good with discipline anyway, only risking money ATS instead of dog moneylines and stuff I've been buying over here (rather haphazardly I will admit)..

 
ChainsawU said:
Yeah, the Lions felt like they had a little juice coming into this game. Remember we backed them when they went into Calgary and almost beat the Stampeders in week 3 - a game they were winning real big early (15-0 1Q and 22-10 1H) before Calgary's backup QB Arbuckle came in and dominated the 4Q. Then last week they barely squeaked out the win at Toronto (+8) on that "missed field goal for the 1-point win" situation that occurred. So they got some juice coming into this game, and home field advantage (more so as the westernmost CFL team) AND their QB is the league's highest-paid player. So that juice - that perception - is what I was hoping would get us some value on Edmonton and provide an Eskimo -1 popping off in the beginning. Reality is that it's a division matchup with a strongly-lined road favorite off a bye week against a home team that hasn't had a lot of time to get their isht together lately. But.. as narratives and hype tend to influence lines, let's wait and see what the number is before kickoff before we buy it. A simple ATS win tomorrow would get me confident and hyped for more action-junkie type #### for Friday and Saturday. And you been doing good with discipline anyway, only risking money ATS instead of dog moneylines and stuff I've been buying over here (rather haphazardly I will admit)..
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Well yeah, but you're also winning with that stuff.  :D  

 
we started watching Euphoria on HBO last night, basically put booty woman into a frenzy. if you ever want to put your chick in the mood watch that show there's lots of graphic sex scenes

 
That's my favorite grammar error, and I sincerely see touts make it all the time in their writeups. That specific error. I love doing grammar incorrect as a hobby. It looks like BOL opened that CFL at Eskimo -2½ -115 and so did Pinnacle at -114, so maybe it'll settle back down to that number before kickoff $$$$ yeah buddy

 
ChainsawU said:
they got some juice coming into this game, and home field advantage (more so as the westernmost CFL team) AND their QB is the league's highest-paid player
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Something to remember for next Saturday:

the next two games will see the Eskimos travel as far as you can in one week in the CFL. They play the B.C. Lions in Vancouver on Thursday and then will face the Alouettes in Montreal nine days later
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ChainsawU said:
Since 2011 the Stampeders have been dogs 23 times (covered 15 of them)
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1. Might be able to back the Stamps as underdogs again on Saturday (Chris Van Zeyl doubtful for Hamilton too, which makes Stamps even more desirable).
2. Argos gonna be double-digit dogs tomorrow at Winnipeg in best-vs-worst CFL team matchup
3. Redblacks finally play their first division matchup of the season hosting the Als on Saturday. It's a sandwich game between two non-division games versus #1 CFL team Winnipeg & might explain Redblacks' lack of discipline/focus last game (if they were looking ahead)..

ChainsawU said:
Blue Bombers are playing really detail-oriented football. High IQ stuff that's taking advantage of Redblacks' lack of discipline.
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ChainsawU said:
their QB is the league's highest-paid player
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Mike Reilly played the past six seasons with the Edmonton Eskimos. He led them to the CFL Championship in 2015. But last offseason he left Edmonton to sign a multi-million-dollar contract with the B.C. Lions.

However, even after losing their star QB, the most significant difference with the Edmonton Eskimos this season will be their approach on defense under new coordinator Phillip Lolley. "Just talking to Lolley, he's real excited. He sounds like a pressure guy; wants to play fast and send six more than not. I'm expecting lots of hits on the QB, lots of turnovers, and all-around aggressive football. He's going to get after the quarterback and I'm all for that."

So basically tonight's game is a rematch from W2, except Eskimos will be on the road. That W2 matchup was highly anticipated because star QB Mike Reilly was returning to Edmonton. But what you might not know is that it was a total nightmare for the Lions' offensive line. Highest-paid-QB-in-the-league Mike Reilly incurred a total of 14 hits that game - resulting in seven sacks and six roughing-the-passer calls produced by the Eskimo pass rush and their new, aggressive DC. Dude was actually sacked four more times, but they were all negated by penalties, Eskimos grabbed his face mask twice, and another time he was tackled helmet to helmet.

Before the season even started Lolley was like, "I plan to be very, very aggressive. I'm not the kind of coach to wait around for things to happen, I'm going to make things happen." And when asked about his new DC, defensive end Kwaku Boateng said, "We're just told to be aggressive, he's letting us out like wild dogs so it's a good fit for our D-Line."

And that's the storyline going into tonight.. :popcorn:

 
ChainsawU said:
if you don't want to bootleg the redit link it's also available on ESPN+ ..which I subscribe to!! wtf am I doing watching all these crappy stolen feeds :lol:
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yeah I've not subscribed to + yet.  Probably should instead of stealing, but it irritates me they already cause my cable bill to be so high and then ask for more.

 
ChainsawU said:
Lions Under 25 -110
Eskimos 1st Quarter -½ -110
2 Team Teaser (ties push) +600
1. Eskimos -10
2. OPEN
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Trying to close out TiCats -19.5 from 6/28 with Mos -10 tonight.

 
Took this from reddit

Hey everyone! I pay monthly for the Action Sports Network app and found some extremely useful information I wanted to share with this sub. I apologize in advance if it’s too long for those of you who don’t want to read everything lol. 

“MLB favorites have excelled in the first game following the All-Star Break. In fact, there's no other day in the year that they're a better bet. This season, favorites have been cashing at a historically high rate. 

-Favorites up to -149: Moneyline 85-53 (+16.9 units, +12.3% ROI), Runline: 65-73 (+22.4 units, +16.3% ROI)

-Favorites of at least -150: Moneyline 52-19 (+10.8 units, 15.2% ROI), Runline: 34-36 (+3.5 units, +4.9% ROI)

-Favs Against a Non-Division Opponent: 74-35 (+18.4 units, +16.9% ROI)

-Visiting Favorites: 44-20 (+16.6 units, +25.9% ROI)

-Favorites w/ at least a .500 record: 92-42 (+24.5 units, +18.2% ROI)

-Team w/ .500+ record vs. team w/ <.409 record: 17-1 (+11.1 units, 61.4% ROI)”

 
D-Backs 71% to the over L4 seasons when they didn't play yesterday, including 10 Robbie Ray starts that all went over the total.. all MLB games free to watch on MLB.tv today.

D-Backs/Cards o8½ -105

 
NASCAR Saturday night :fistpump:

Been on a much needed vacation the past week, fun vacation, only regret was while driving through New Jersey I didn't create a sportsbook acct and place some wagers.

My wife got picked out of a crowd and played a game show segment on the Today show and won $1100, always looking for that edge  :D

 
ChainsawU said:
1. Might be able to back the Stamps as underdogs again on Saturday (Chris Van Zeyl doubtful for Hamilton too, which makes Stamps even more desirable).
2. Argos gonna be double-digit dogs tomorrow at Winnipeg in best-vs-worst CFL team matchup
3. Redblacks finally play their first division matchup of the season hosting the Als on Saturday. It's a sandwich game between two non-division games versus #1 CFL team Winnipeg & might explain Redblacks' lack of discipline/focus last game (if they were looking ahead)..
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Leaning toward Ottowa -9.  You?

 
ChainsawU said:
we started watching Euphoria on HBO last night, basically put booty woman into a frenzy. if you ever want to put your chick in the mood watch that show there's lots of graphic sex scenes
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My wife started watching this show this week.  The only thing I've heard about was some huge fat guy jerking his tiny penis.  Pass

 
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