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The Ref

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!

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brooks is a pretty good wind guy fwiw.  a lot of people don't realize it because of his build and off the tee game, but he made his bones on the Euro tour and is an excellent links golfer.

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Like Twins and Cubs and both unders; team total unders for the opposing teams..

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##### just realized Pineda's start got pushed back. I don't like him as much now. Although I did find out Pineda might like pitching in the cold. When it's less than 56 degrees outside Pineda's team has gone 14-2 SU (14-0 SU scoring more than 1 run) with Pineda allowing 30 runs in 86.2 innings pitched..

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Pirates F5 +.5

Indians -111

Angels/Cubs 1st inning run yes

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Anyone bought crypto with a CC recently?  looking for best option, haven't used this method in a while, wondering what's best

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19 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

Anyone bought crypto with a CC recently?  looking for best option, haven't used this method in a while, wondering what's best

coin mama

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Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey is a 21,900-seat stadium that opened in 1990. The elevation of the ballpark is a little more than 2,000 feet. The air is dry and hot, and with a game time temperature of 90 degrees, air density index of 55, and the wind blowing out to left-center, the atmosphere appears inviting for offense. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright, who will start Saturday's game in the Cardinals' first ever Mexico Series, bounced a few baseballs to get a feel for the rebound (the stadium has an artificial turf field and a dirt infield). He held a baseball as high as his right arm would allow, and called on anyone nearby, "Hey, watch this," he said - dropped the baseball and watched it rebound to about his waist. "That's something. I expect.. crazy," Wainwright said Friday, sitting in the dugout at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey. "I expect it's going to be loud and it's going to be awesome." As Wainwright showed with his bounces, the ball will rebound high and quick. The turf is fast, the infield is hard, and the dimensions are friendly. The walls are close and symmetrical - 325 feet down the line, 400 to dead center, and 360 in the alleys. "Win win," said one Cardinals pitcher (for the hitters). "Looks fast," one Cardinal said Friday, and described how the ballpark is built for home runs and has a runway as an infield. Oh, and foul territory has no space to steal outs.

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Anything Charlie Hoffman can do, Corey Conners can do better!

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19 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

Anything Charlie Hoffman can do, Corey Conners can do better!

Hopefully he can do it better than Patrick cantlay too

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A couple of NBA championship futures bets.

 

Put a dime on the Warriors at -227

100 to win 1100 on the Rockets.

 

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Lowest round in Master’s history and THIS dbag

<—————- can’t make a frigging putt for 60-1.  Sigh.

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19 minutes ago, facook said:

Lowest round in Master’s history and THIS dbag

<—————- can’t make a frigging putt for 60-1.  Sigh.

Tomorrow is going to be one of the most exploitable betting days this year in sports.

Molinari and Tiger are both sitting ducks with the wind.  While heavy winds play to the strengths of half of the top of the leaderboard.

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Molinari hasn't made bogey or worse since 11 on Thursday and that was his only one.

The wind will speed up regression.  

 

Looking at a list of golfers most adversely affected by heavy winds which were nowhere to be found today and there wasn't much more on Friday.

 

These guys are in the bottom 12 of entire PGA going back 5 years:  Thomas, Woods, Molinari

Just a little further up, still bottom 30:  Na, Barnrat, Watson, Koepka

 

 

wind "specialists"- Matsuyama, Walker, Si Woo, Kuchar, Scott,  Oost, Cantlay, Finau, DJ, Rory, Spieth, Fowler, Simpson

 

I would say its going to be someone on that second list, but it doesn't include Euro stats so I wouldn't be fading the Europeans either.  Olesen, Bjerregaard, Harding are all battle tested on Euro tour.

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grabbed fowler at 66-1 at mybookie, DJ is 1 stroke ahead of him and priced at 22-1

And Kuchar 50-1 and Scott 80-1

Edited by lumpy19
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3 hours ago, hooter311 said:

Molinari hasn't made bogey or worse since 11 on Thursday and that was his only one.

The wind will speed up regression.  

 

Looking at a list of golfers most adversely affected by heavy winds which were nowhere to be found today and there wasn't much more on Friday.

 

These guys are in the bottom 12 of entire PGA going back 5 years:  Thomas, Woods, Molinari

Just a little further up, still bottom 30:  Na, Barnrat, Watson, Koepka

 

 

wind "specialists"- Matsuyama, Walker, Si Woo, Kuchar, Scott,  Oost, Cantlay, Finau, DJ, Rory, Spieth, Fowler, Simpson

 

I would say its going to be someone on that second list, but it doesn't include Euro stats so I wouldn't be fading the Europeans either.  Olesen, Bjerregaard, Harding are all battle tested on Euro tour.

are we sure weather is going to come into play tomorrow?   With moved up tee times it looks like weather wont hit until 3 or 4

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2 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

are we sure weather is going to come into play tomorrow?   With moved up tee times it looks like weather wont hit until 3 or 4

I'm sure as sure can be, but I could very well be off my rocker....I'm still seeing 9 mph winds with 27 mph gusts as early as 7 am increasing and changing direction where 1 pm is looking like 16 mph wind with 37 mph gusts.  Rain and electricity hitting around 5pm.

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1 minute ago, hooter311 said:

I'm sure as sure can be, but I could very well be off my rocker....I'm still seeing 9 mph winds with 27 mph gusts as early as 7 am increasing and changing direction where 1 pm is looking like 16 mph wind with 37 mph gusts.  Rain and electricity hitting around 5pm.

ok so still windy but no rain.. When do matchups come out or we going to have to wake up early?

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ooooffff, the matchups at bkmaker are......undesirable.

Seems like they were created to leverage the wind factor.:tinfoilhat:

Phil -118 over Bubba

Finau -133 over Molinari  (Wind seems to dictate this price as well)

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

grabbed fowler at 66-1 at mybookie, DJ is 1 stroke ahead of him and priced at 22-1

And Kuchar 50-1 and Scott 80-1

Yep, I'm in on all them.  DJ too.

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9 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

day vs watson seems to foot the wind

Except that whole having to rely on Jason Day not having something crazy happen to him.  Pulling your back muscles pre round 1 giving your kid a hug and and grimacing your way around the course only to come to back for the tournament win would be a classic Day spot to pull off.

 

I know this as a Noren win ticket holder for the 2018 farmers where he did pretty much the exact same thing.

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32 minutes ago, hooter311 said:

ooooffff, the matchups at bkmaker are......undesirable.

Seems like they were created to leverage the wind factor.:tinfoilhat:

Phil -118 over Bubba

Finau -133 over Molinari  (Wind seems to dictate this price as well)

 

 

 

 

Bookmaker does their own lines for golf, they don't matchup with any other book for round matchups.......and they take 5k on those matchups, they know their golfers and they usually base the matchups so it's a coin flip.

Finau -105 over Molinari at betonline

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1 minute ago, lumpy19 said:

Bookmaker does their own lines for golf, they don't matchup with any other book for round matchups.......and they take 5k on those matchups, they know their golfers and they usually base the matchups so it's a coin flip.

Finau -105 over Molinari at betonline

I've been a fan, only place that is still nice to me.  I can handle fair. 

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Add some drizzle to the morning forecast as well.  now the 30 mph gusts show to be coming in even earlier where now tee time is safe.  Still have to deal with the 20 % change in humidity and 10 degree raise in air temperature during your round.  Bryson is at his abacus as we speak no doubt.

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1 hour ago, lumpy19 said:

No hole in one -170 betonline

Looks like 16 is the traditional hole location. I bet yes for Hole in one earlier in the week. I think I do every year. Had to sweat out last two years until Sunday.

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weather doesnt look that bad:mellow:

 

eta they just said conditions are absolutely perfect

Edited by swirvenirvin

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43 minutes ago, huskers15 said:

Looks like 16 is the traditional hole location. I bet yes for Hole in one earlier in the week. I think I do every year. Had to sweat out last two years until Sunday.

Bryson takes you home.

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7 hours ago, The Ref said:

Congratulations molinari backers!

Guys gonna win by 6 strokes

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Molinari should play down the wrong fairway... not that I have ever done that..

NM ... go splash in the bunker instead... and Tiger about to make this a tourney again

Edited by Angry Beavers

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with Scherzer's start pushed back I think if they win it'll go over the total & need 6 runs to win

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CLE/KC O7.5 EV

STL/CIn U10 -105 ( game is in Mexico.. fyi)

and I agree saw, i took that over 7.5 but did not have a chance to post before 1st pitch

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DJ, Scheffelle, Day, or Cantlay would have netted 5 figures.  

Probably still worth it to watch the GOAT win the Masters.  Blindsided me as well.

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6 hours ago, huskers15 said:

Looks like 16 is the traditional hole location. I bet yes for Hole in one earlier in the week. I think I do every year. Had to sweat out last two years until Sunday.

I was seriously overlooking the pin position angles.

This might have been what Man with No Name was getting at too and it went right over my head.

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I don't know why I venture outside of this thread.  I am very poor at effective communication.  :lmao:

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