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The Ref

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!!

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Really want to fade A&M in the 2H, but that entire game just smells like crap. They're giving Old Mrs. +3 in the 2H, same as the original full game spread.

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I'd risk money on Frank Reich after a bye week. I bet he jump out to a quick lead.

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I think that's a good spot for the Bears off the bye after the overseas game. Plus a couple games' worth of tape on Teddy.

I might back away from this a little bit as Sean Payton has a filthy ATS record as the underdog. Filthy as in they usually cover.

Edited by ChainsawU

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Sagarin's number says the Colts should be catching a couple points on the spread. Strong line for them. He lists Texans #8 versus Colts at #22 in the rankings. Hopefully that Colts' number gets better by morning and isn't as expensive to buy. Sagarin also lists Patriots as the #1 team, despite their 32nd-ranked strength of schedule. His #2 team in the NFL is the 49ers. You know what that means. Pats/Niners Super Bowl!

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5 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

wtf

Apparently a glitch in the matrix they’re back 

 

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[465129] TOTAL o6½-120 (COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY) vrs COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY))
[463139] TOTAL o66½+110 (JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[463137] TOTAL o½+140 (JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
[459066] TOTAL u31½-155 (T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[455093] TOTAL o69½-110 (MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[453085] TOTAL o17½-110 (DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469065] TOTAL o49½-110 (HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469101] TOTAL o73½-135 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469097] TOTAL o½+115 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
 

I probably should not play 8 overs and 1 under..... I really have a tough time playing unders with props because I feel like you are one busted play away from getting hosed - particularly on yardage totals. I play these for anywhere from .25 to .5 of what I usually play a side for, fwiw. 

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Just now, Dan Lambskin said:

I think the Lions get blown out today 

You spelled Redskins wrong. 👍🏻 Shanahan gonna run it up as much as he can. 

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What's the thread doing with Amari cooper?  Normally an injury fade for me in this spot but that philly pass def :X

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don't forget - NFC East - Prime Time over for anyone looking for live action.... IIRC, bet the under, wait forthe first TD, bet the over in live wagering. These games start slow and then turn into shootouts. They seemed to do ok for a while a couple of years ago.....

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9 minutes ago, Angry Beavers said:

don't forget - NFC East - Prime Time over for anyone looking for live action.... IIRC, bet the under, wait forthe first TD, bet the over in live wagering. These games start slow and then turn into shootouts. They seemed to do ok for a while a couple of years ago.....

The last couple of years, pass on the pregame total, wait for live over.  I think.  At least I remember losing on the pregame under several times in a row.

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I relied on this weather report from Rotoworld as the reason to start Jimmy G over Rivers or Cousins in fantasy this week:

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 PM ET): The undefeated 49ers hit the road against a disastrous Redskins team this week. 11 MPH winds are expected but won't be an issue unless it reaches 15 MPH or more. There is expected to be rain throughout the game, but nothing that should alter either team’s gameplans or impact passing. Unless wind speeds are dramatically higher than what’s projected, start all players from this one as normal.

 

:gunshot:

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Your PRIMETIME FACOOK PLAY TO FADE:

7 point tease: Eagles +10/Over 43

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@ChainsawU hey man.  Can you help

build this so we can track it por favor ?

 

The @NYIslanders are 15-3-1 on the UNDER when coming off a game where they had 26 or less shots on goal.  Dates back to Jan 13 2019. 

 

9-1-1 On the UNDER when they won the 26 SOG or less game

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37 minutes ago, facook said:

I relied on this weather report from Rotoworld as the reason to start Jimmy G over Rivers or Cousins in fantasy this week:

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 PM ET): The undefeated 49ers hit the road against a disastrous Redskins team this week. 11 MPH winds are expected but won't be an issue unless it reaches 15 MPH or more. There is expected to be rain throughout the game, but nothing that should alter either team’s gameplans or impact passing. Unless wind speeds are dramatically higher than what’s projected, start all players from this one as normal.

 

:gunshot:

I go with Kevin Roth on Twitter

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9 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

Lions u43.5

Cards +3.5

falcons o54.5

49ers -9.5

Nice win on vikings tt u 43.5... barely held on but nice. 

 

 

 

Oh wait

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1 hour ago, regularguy said:

horrible beat on Trubisky under yards.  Went from ~115 to 251 in last 5 minutes.

That was sick and par for the 4:00 games

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1 hour ago, swirvenirvin said:

That was sick and par for the 4:00 games

Yep, today was an old-school Sunday for me with a strong 1:00 and a ####ty 4:00 card. 

Edited by regularguy

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2 hours ago, Big League Chew said:

Islanders are 15-3-1 on the UNDER when coming off a game where they had 26 or less shots on goal

sdql :hifive:

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Today reminded me that I’ve been meaning to quit gambling.

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Belichick v Gase 4-2-1 O/U 51±8 ppg. Pats averaged 32±6

Patriots o26 -131
Patriots/Jets o43 -105

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Need at least a Jets TD in the first half; L4 seasons Jets 22-8-1 (.733) to the over when they score 7+ in the 1H

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13 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

What's the thread doing with Amari cooper?  Normally an injury fade for me in this spot but that philly pass def :X

Guess he's fine

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11 hours ago, regularguy said:

Yep, today was an old-school Sunday for me with a strong 1:00 and a ####ty 4:00 card. 

a yep.. little profit at 1 only to piss it all away plus at 4

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my jets projections are waaaaaaaaaay off of whats listed.. this should be fun watching the jets come out and pound the patriots and not have to pass

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46 minutes ago, swirvenirvin said:

my jets projections are waaaaaaaaaay off of whats listed.. this should be fun watching the jets come out and pound the patriots and not have to pass

At least Rivers managed to stay under 24.5 that last few minutes was excruciating 

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35 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

At least Rivers managed to stay under 24.5 that last few minutes was excruciating 

that was amazing... shouldnt have been close but tanny was too dumb to do a normal qb sneak

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1 hour ago, Dan Lambskin said:

At least Rivers managed to stay under 24.5 that last few minutes was excruciating 

Too bad he couldn't stay under 279.5 

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3 hours ago, swirvenirvin said:

my jets projections are waaaaaaaaaay off of whats listed.. this should be fun watching the jets come out and pound the patriots and not have to pass

Are you saying jets overs?

I have darnold u220.5, Robby u3.5& u51.5, leveon u37.5 rec & u59.5 rushing

Edited by lumpy19

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patriots have literally faced no one but ben who went for 27-47 276 and allen who got hurt but bills went for 22-42-280

other guys are complete bums 3rd string guys

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16 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

The world is ending, swirv is talking me into overs

I feel like the numbers that are listed are still somewhat based off falk

last 5 losses or close games outside of week 17 where it was lame duck coach and no players his last stats 24/37 - 267 and he put up 28-41 175 vs what I think is just as good or better defense when he most likely still had mono.

 

I dunno im sure ill get ####ed on game flow, or maybe im dumb but i like darnold overs and bell and croweder receptions overs a lot

Edited by swirvenirvin
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I'm having such a terrible year I'm willing to be talked out of my position.

My thought with the leveon under yardage and darnold yardage is that new England is going to force short quick throws.  Gilmore takes out Robby and nyj has no one else to stretch the field.  The only other nyj player that can hurt you is Bell and I think new England gives him a lot of attention.

 

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9 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

I'm having such a terrible year I'm willing to be talked out of my position.

My thought with the leveon under yardage and darnold yardage is that new England is going to force short quick throws.  Gilmore takes out Robby and nyj has no one else to stretch the field.  The only other nyj player that can hurt you is Bell and I think new England gives him a lot of attention.

 

oustide of week 1 dominating its been up and down for me too.  couple games here and there have been killers.

I think we have somewhat the same idea outside of darnold yards we were pretty much on the same stuff, you werent fading crowder or bell receptions and i wasnt going over on lev bell yards or robbie

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2 hours ago, swirvenirvin said:

I feel like the numbers that are listed are still somewhat based off falk

last 5 losses or close games outside of week 17 where it was lame duck coach and no players his last stats 24/37 - 267 and he put up 28-41 175 vs what I think is just as good or better defense when he most likely still had mono.

 

I dunno im sure ill get ####ed on game flow, or maybe im dumb but i like darnold overs and bell and croweder receptions overs a lot

The problem is that 50% of the time Darnold is Falk.  All we have is a small sample but when he faces a solid pass D, he struggles.  He's gone over 220 against the Dolphins and a few games NY gets into the 20's, but sub-17 pt games (TT sub-17 tonight) and tough D's (Buf x2, Den, Min, Chi, NE) he's sucked.  He does seem to do better at home though.

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4 hours ago, swirvenirvin said:

patriots have literally faced no one

Indeed. Sagarin still lists them #1 despite their 32nd-ranked SOS. Pats coming off the extra 3 days rest I think is gonna be huge for their game.

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