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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)

facook said:
What's this now?  Thought you kicked her to the curb? :-)you'reneverkickinghertothecurb:)
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Remember the 21-year-old woman who used to scan my groceries? I had a daily routine and she "stalked my business hours" and would always go on break during the time she anticipated me being there as a means to spend time with me. And then one day I finally asked her out and she swallowed all my kids a lot. And then she hand made me a gigantic birthday card on my birthday with all of her art supplies. Back when I was dating like 5 women at the same time and she realized I wasn't her "boyfriend" and then I never saw her again. It's been like 4 years. Remember? I saw her at the grocery store today. I saw her! She was eyeballing me and tried to avoid being seen. But I saw her!

none of this was intended to be written as a euphemism
 
ChainsawU said:
There's this girl I attended public speaking class with who now works for Instacart, a personal shopper at the grocery store. She always says hi. Today when she asked me about my pickle juice I showed her my bone-in rib eye. She was like, "You must have a fancy date tonight." I bet u she wants to be that date.
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I saw this chick again today too! For the first time in like MONTHS! Life really does occur in cycles. Like fashion. Clothes go out of style, but if you don't throw them out and keep them in your closet long enough they always come back in style that's what my aunt always says.

 
Three of Sagarin's 4 systems say that Fresno should be 5-7 point underdogs. One of them says they should be +1 like they are. And the majority of bets are on the home team as the short favorite - with most of those bets paying the juice on the moneyline (SI). Tedford after a loss has been pretty strong. Kinda leaning Fresno what do you think? Tedford 26-11 SU and 24-11-2 ATS as head coach of Fresno State - TIED with Georgia and Clemson for most wins against the spread in all of college football since Tedford became head coach at Fresno.

 
ChainsawU said:
Three of Sagarin's 4 systems say that Fresno should be 5-7 point underdogs. One of them says they should be +1 like they are. And the majority of bets are on the home team as the short favorite - with most of those bets paying the juice on the moneyline (SI). Tedford after a loss has been pretty strong. Kinda leaning Fresno what do you think? Tedford 26-11 SU and 24-11-2 ATS as head coach of Fresno State - TIED with Georgia and Clemson for most wins against the spread in all of college football since Tedford became head coach at Fresno.
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In on Fresno.

 
"It's been a short week getting ready for Marshall this Friday," Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz said when he spoke with the media Tuesday in preparation for Tech's road showdown with the leaders of the CUSA East Division, Marshall Thundering Herd.
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Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz 11-7 SU and 12-6 ATS vs CUSA East. He's 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS with the Bulldogs in weekday games and 4-0 SU as the underdog in those games. I have a small hunch they start out slow, so I'm going to wait to buy the moneyline after the end of the 1Q if I can find better value cheers bro.

Louisiana Tech +6½ -108

 
ChainsawU said:
Three of Sagarin's 4 systems say that Fresno should be 5-7 point underdogs. One of them says they should be +1 like they are. And the majority of bets are on the home team as the short favorite - with most of those bets paying the juice on the moneyline (SI). Tedford after a loss has been pretty strong. Kinda leaning Fresno what do you think? Tedford 26-11 SU and 24-11-2 ATS as head coach of Fresno State - TIED with Georgia and Clemson for most wins against the spread in all of college football since Tedford became head coach at Fresno.
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Stayed away from the side but lean Fresno.  Did play under 42.5 yesterday.

 
ChainsawU said:
Remember the 21-year-old woman who used to scan my groceries? I had a daily routine and she "stalked my business hours" and would always go on break during the time she anticipated me being there as a means to spend time with me. And then one day I finally asked her out and she swallowed all my kids a lot. And then she hand made me a gigantic birthday card on my birthday with all of her art supplies. Back when I was dating like 5 women at the same time and she realized I wasn't her "boyfriend" and then I never saw her again. It's been like 4 years. Remember? I saw her at the grocery store today. I saw her! She was eyeballing me and tried to avoid being seen. But I saw her!

none of this was intended to be written as a euphemism
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ChainsawU said:
I saw this chick again today too! For the first time in like MONTHS! Life really does occur in cycles. Like fashion. Clothes go out of style, but if you don't throw them out and keep them in your closet long enough they always come back in style that's what my aunt always says.
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I remember Booty woman bro.  I think it's the visual assistance that has done the trick for me.  These pictureless chicks just seem to come and go.  So to speak.    :banned:

 
facook said:
I remember Booty woman bro.  I think it's the visual assistance that has done the trick for me.  These pictureless chicks just seem to come and go.  So to speak.    :banned:
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My old business partner used to hear me say that on the phone, "so to speak." I'd say it instead of saying "no pun intended," etc.. He adopted it as part of his own vernacular, but would use it incorrectly. You're such a breath of fresh air. He really thought he sounded smart. Yo I was looking at Rocky Long at home and feel you on that total. Yo what do you have on tap for tonight, my money's on vodka. How is your son's acting career going, y'all getting all ready for Thanksgiving?

 
ChainsawU said:
My old business partner used to hear me say that on the phone, "so to speak." I'd say it instead of saying "no pun intended," etc.. He adopted it as part of his own vernacular, but would use it incorrectly. You're such a breath of fresh air. He really thought he sounded smart. Yo I was looking at Rocky Long at home and feel you on that total. Yo what do you have on tap for tonight, my money's on vodka. How is your son's acting career going, y'all getting all ready for Thanksgiving?
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:wub:   Thanks man.  Makes me think of this: Say no more.

You are probably right on Rocky since I lean Fresno.  Hope we're right on the total which, true to form, has gone up a point since I bet the under yesterday.

Vodka.  Always and forever.  Thanks for asking about my fam (that's how I know you're a good businessman).  My boy has not acted yet this year.  Hoops tryouts are Monday and Tuesday.  Mostly we've been focusing on teaching him to drive and doing basketball drills in the driveway.  Weather in Oregon has been ridiculously nice for this time of year, while 70% of the country freezes.  That changes in a week or so, but I've sure enjoyed it.  I have a good life.

How are you, other than playing Vag-Roulette?

 
swirvenirvin said:
ill admit it.. i dont find silvas articles that useful anymore
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Is it the arrogant ball-licking of pro-"analytics" teams and ish-talking of non-analytics "old-school" teams writing?  It's been going on for 2 years.  He thinks he should be owner/gm/coach and any coach who kicks the field goal on 4th down should be drawn and quartered.  Meanwhile he "picks" the game as 27-24 final score, in favor of the -3 Vegas favorite where the game has a 51 Vegas total.  His "game-flow" predictions are sewage.  DOOOOOSH.

:banned:  

 
swirvenirvin said:
you hitting 65% on unders then i need to stop n subscribe to your stuff
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Not much different % than prior years when mostly tailing you.  I just don't play overs unless I have a bad line like a 0.5 rec lower.  Makes for a smaller card but more focused & less time-consuming prep. work. 

 
Over the years under Gary Patterson's leadership, the Horned Frogs have been known for their defense, and the numbers don't lie. Right now, TCU ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense and many other stats. But, there is one stat that can change the outcome of any game - turnover margin. As of games played through Nov 09, 2019 - the Red Raiders are No. 1 in the Big 12 in turnover margin with a plus-nine stat, while TCU comes in at No. 8 with a negative-five... Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan has been a turnover machine as of late, tossing six picks in the past two games. So, if Duffey continues to protect the ball and if the Red Raider defense continues to force turnovers - Tech could be in for a big win at home.
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Gary Patterson's opponents that have averaged less than 42 ppg have gone 28-7-3 ATS (avg line +3) when they scored more than 21 points on TCU's defense in home/neutral site games outside of Ft. Worth.

Texas Tech +3½ -105

 
The Wyoming style isn't sexy, but it works. When they run for more than 160 yards they're 6-0 and then 0-3 when they don't. Utah State will never have the ball, is last in the nation in time of possession, and is going to have a problem with the Wyoming pass rush.
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On the other side, Wyoming's TOP averages 30:09 per game. During the L5 seasons, Utah State Aggies have gone 24-12-1 to the over against teams who possess the ball less than 32 minutes per game on average and 13-2-1 at home.

Wyoming/Utah State o50 -105

 
ChainsawU said:
Sagarin lists LTech as the road fave :confused:
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Damn buddy jet lag got me or I would have mentioned the news.  Now that said - I have a local that charges peanuts to buy the 7 so I bought a half unit “for action” and ended up in bed at 8:15.

 
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Now here is the thing.  I follow the tweet storms the covers crew puts out in sat mornings fairly religiously and feel like I do well taking in the information they put out.  I find myself asking the question as to why they put the below out last night.  Now I’m looking at all my outs and even though OSU covering 35 is the “biggest decision of the day” they are all hanging 34.5 unjuiced.

Per @WilliamHillUS Nick Bogdanovich, OhioSt-Rutgers first half might be decision of day in #CFB. "We need Scarlet Knights, gonna need 'em big, especially in first half." OhioSt -35 first half. One bet to win $50K. Also: "6 figures in parlays & mounting, all first half." @Covers

Why am I so lucky?  Something isn’t adding up

 
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Guess my late research is focused on the big spreads.  In the vain of my other fade plays UMass has completely given up.  They are a D3 team masqueradeing as a D1 team this year (and who was the one team they beat?   Akron.....).  

Army hadn’t dropped more than 33 on a D1 team year this year (Tulane, which is a bit of a surprise) and then hammered ZooMass 63-7 last week.

northwestern Has had a tough go if it this year for sure but they have faced good/great teams all season and haven’t had any real “laydown blowouts” on the resume.  

Northwestern can hang 35 on UMass in the 1H

NW -26 1H

 
I dropped a large portion of my account into Texas Tech +15 then went to the gym & ran errands for two hours. One of those wagers where you click submit and have to leave the house. Afraid to check and see if it worked.

 
ChainsawU said:
I dropped a large portion of my account into Texas Tech +15 then went to the gym & ran errands for two hours. One of those wagers where you click submit and have to leave the house. Afraid to check and see if it worked.
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Scoooooop

maybe I can try the same with Navy +99

 
Not much left on my radar. Jumped in on some Longhorns 11' and 13' with you and some Memphis -130 as well. Not much left on my radar except Baylor and Colorado State. What do you think about those two.

 
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