The Ref

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Time to build a wall.

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1 hour ago, The Ref said:

So I'm headed out to Vegas Thursday night on a "Prop business trip".  I've done some reading online and I've read some tips from some of you including @Tiger Fan on what's available when/where.  If you want me to try and check something out while im there this weekend let me know and I'll try by best to investigate.

the current plan is to hit the Westgate on Saturday late afternoon and the Palms (A station casino) on Sunday morning.

 

Nice.  Are you going to make it there before the Thurs night game?  and I know it was in my notes, but Westgate didn't have anything at all for the Sunday day games...just Sun night.  

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11 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

Still a chance for Peppers 

I had good odds on him making it at 5d.  Feel lucky he got invited because he certainly doesn't deserve it.  Media and everyone else sure does an excellent job hyping this dood up.

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57 minutes ago, Tiger Fan said:

Nice.  Are you going to make it there before the Thurs night game?  and I know it was in my notes, but Westgate didn't have anything at all for the Sunday day games...just Sun night.  

Nope.   Leave at 8PM EST so it will be over by the time I touch down.

when did the Sunday night stuff get posted?

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3 minutes ago, The Ref said:

Nope.   Leave at 8PM EST so it will be over by the time I touch down.

when did the Sunday night stuff get posted?

from vegas thread:

 

 

Quote

 

Also, for those interested....Been in Vegas all weekend. Surprisingly enough,all of the casinos who use Stations as line originators have the most prop options. They have the London game, SNF, MNF and about 12 other random player props for the regular games. 

Not great, but better than nothing. 

Westgate had their SNF and MNF prop sheet available Saturday morning - there were like maybe 5 total player props for each game

El Cortez (Stations) didn't have any of their props until Sunday morning (well, I guess it could've been Saturday night..but I didn't check) - they had 6 for the London game, then 12 total for the "regular" day games, then another 6 or so for the SNF/MNF games each

 

 

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Well, if this isn't a fine mess...

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2 hours ago, Tiger Fan said:

from vegas thread:

 

 

 

TF any idea on limits for the props?

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2 minutes ago, lumpy19 said:

TF any idea on limits for the props?

I had someone go 2 months ago and he swears they had props at NYNY and they were $1K limits..... needless to say I'm going shopping this weekend

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Anyone use DFS projections for a prop road map? I dabbled with NBA stuff a couple times with THESE GUYS projections and it didn't work out so well. I got to looking at the hockey and alot of their projections are 2+ off from the lines offered at bovada on saves. 

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3 hours ago, The Ref said:

Nope.   Leave at 8PM EST so it will be over by the time I touch down.

when did the Sunday night stuff get posted?

When I was outIn Vegas basic props for Sunday night and Monday games were available at westgate, MGM casinos, and william hill (bunch of these around, casino royale on strip is one).  Only about 4 per team though.  

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Both the Spurs and Wizards came back from ≥ 15-point deficits in their road wins last night. Since 2013 when you had the night off but your opponent had to come back from a ≥ 15-point deficit to win on the road last night, you've gone 18-6 SU and 17-7 ATS against them tonight (18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS lined ≤ 5). The losses came by margins of 5,11,12,13,15,15. link

Magic +135
Minny +155
Minny +5½ -140

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1 hour ago, WilliamBonney said:

Anyone use DFS projections for a prop road map? I dabbled with NBA stuff a couple times with THESE GUYS projections and it didn't work out so well. I got to looking at the hockey and alot of their projections are 2+ off from the lines offered at bovada on saves. 

I've been doing this for NBA this season.  After a really hot start I've been crashing back down pretty hard.  Still up for the year, but down to like +7 from +35 or so.

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1 minute ago, Frostillicus said:

I've been doing this for NBA this season.  After a really hot start I've been crashing back down pretty hard.  Still up for the year, but down to like +7 from +35 or so.

The numbers always pointed towards playing a majority of under plays and the sample size was small, but it was a ####ty sample. 

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2 hours ago, lumpy19 said:

TF any idea on limits for the props?

$500 at Cortez and Westgate.  I guess in theory I could've went back twice.  Other thing was that the lines never moved from day to day....only the juice...make sure you ask the guy taking the bets if anything has changed from the print out (they weren't listed on any digital boards...only paper format)

Edited by Tiger Fan

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Today is Johnny Football's birthday. My nose hurts just thinking about what he's getting into. 

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45 minutes ago, Frostillicus said:

I've been doing this for NBA this season.  After a really hot start I've been crashing back down pretty hard.  Still up for the year, but down to like +7 from +35 or so.

dang thats huge difference.

 

not possible for most stuff obviously that are more daily but I dont even look at anyone else projections anymore.  I use to peek and see if I lined up a bit before.

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Just now, swirvenirvin said:

dang thats huge difference.

 

not possible for most stuff obviously that are more daily but I dont even look at anyone else projections anymore.  I use to peek and see if I lined up a bit before.

It's been.........not good.

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URI -9.5

Purdue -11.5

IPFW +13

Florida +7.5

ECU/Virginia u 115

Houston/Arkansas u 154

Texas/Michigan u 131

Swanigan u 16.5p

Mack u 2.5 made 3s

Irvin o 14.5p

Allen o 12.5p

Kennard u 6.5r

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6 minutes ago, Frostillicus said:

URI -9.5

Purdue -11.5

IPFW +13

Florida +7.5

ECU/Virginia u 115

Houston/Arkansas u 154

Texas/Michigan u 131

Swanigan u 16.5p

Mack u 2.5 made 3s

Irvin o 14.5p

Allen o 12.5p

Kennard u 6.5r

URI off the board

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19 minutes ago, WilliamBonney said:

URI off the board

Good news - you can get URI -7.5 now

Bad news - you can get URI -7.5 now which means lots of money likes ODU +9.5

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Going to try to jump back in to a little hockey here since football is winding down. I'm implementing a 4-max
system that I tried to learn by following NoJokeNHL on Twitter a few years ago before he went tout and then
disappeared (maybe that should tell me something). Two years ago this did very well for me, last year it was
terrible and I lost interest. I've looked at the 4 early games, I'll try to look at the later ones after I get home from
a BS chamber of commerce after hours. Here's what I got:

Nucks/Devils  U5  (-115)
Flyers  PL  (+195)

I think there's quite a bit of value on the Nucks at around +160, but the Devils have been so good at home this year
I'm staying away. We'll wade in here with small plays and see how it goes.

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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

URI -9.5

Purdue -11.5

IPFW +13

Florida +7.5

ECU/Virginia u 115

Houston/Arkansas u 154

Texas/Michigan u 131

Swanigan u 16.5p

Mack u 2.5 made 3s

Irvin o 14.5p

Allen o 12.5p

Kennard u 6.5r

What was the latest NCAA tourney team you mentioned?  Meant to look back through the thread, but... :kicksrock:

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1 hour ago, WilliamBonney said:

@The Ref- You watching any hockey tonight, pal?

Maybe....

Talbot ovr 27 ??

 

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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:

URI -9.5

Purdue -11.5

IPFW +13

Florida +7.5

ECU/Virginia u 115

Houston/Arkansas u 154

Texas/Michigan u 131

Swanigan u 16.5p

Mack u 2.5 made 3s

Irvin o 14.5p

Allen o 12.5p

Kennard u 6.5r

They don't have a ton, but sportsbetting.ag has a few player props tonight. Allen o12.5 is +110 there. 

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16 minutes ago, gmbacm said:

What was the latest NCAA tourney team you mentioned?  Meant to look back through the thread, but... :kicksrock:

Virginia

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URI best player out suddenly with a leg injury. So that's why. 

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31 minutes ago, WilliamBonney said:

They don't have a ton, but sportsbetting.ag has a few player props tonight. Allen o12.5 is +110 there. 

I played kennard u10.5reb/assists there

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1 minute ago, lumpy19 said:

I played kennard u10.5reb/assists there

He played high school ball one town over from where I live and I went to several games his jr/sr career. I actually saw coach K at a Valley View Spartan football game when Franklin came to play. Anyways, I like that bet because that kid doesn't dish the rock much. 

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Since last season Blues 25-8-2 to the under (1st NHL) with 1.86 goals allowed (1st NHL) coming off > 1 day of rest. Habs also on the last game of that weird road trip where they played all the west coast USA teams then went to St. Louis for some reason before going back home.

Habs/Blues u5 +124

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1 hour ago, gmbacm said:

What was the latest NCAA tourney team you mentioned?  Meant to look back through the thread, but... :kicksrock:

Or Xavier?

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SOB if you had the wake/charlotte under just take the push or loss, do not go back and look at the play by play. 

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Wolves hate the 3rd quarter 4eva

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