Draftkings Week 14 (1 Viewer)

Let's do this!

Will be slowly posting my thoughts.  Been looking more at info from the last 5 weeks and seeing if there is anything that sticks out as far as the players who have been performing well and the Ds that might not be.  I know 5 weeks is random, but I thought it was about 1/3 of the season and with bye weeks it gave at least 4 games of samples.  Just thought it was an interesting place to start. 

Just in general, it seemed like there were a lot of home underdogs.  Also, there isn't any huge implied totals from teams that we have seen in the past few weeks.  There is decent group of them in the 24-26pt range though with NE (if you are playing a MNF slate) and TB being the only two teams above 26 when I looked last night. 

Again, it might be too simple and will probably miss somebody, but I think it's a good vaulting point.  All I did is write down the top 12 QB scoring for DK over the last 5 weeks.  Then I compared it to the Ds they are going up against and looking at their rank and how many pts/game they have been allowing to Qbs over that time.  Lastly, I just looked at the QB salary and looked to see if what the D has been allowing is at least 3x what their price is and made a list of those guys.  Here we go: (pricing is for the Thurs-Mon slate, not sure if it is different for the main slate?)

Qbs that met the above criteria + their teams have an implied total in the top 1/2 of teams for the slate:

Wilson (6600):  This guy is still way underpriced and has been the QB3 over this time.  GB is averaging giving up 281-2TD to Qbs over this time for 21.5 pts/g.  Rodgers also has the ability to keep the game going to push up the points more.  GB's D just flat out stinks.  They made Brock the QB6 last week in the snow.  Problem with this might be that all of GB's D sucks, and there might be other options to explore from this game on the Seattle side as well.

Cousins (6300):  QB8 (despite playing only 4 games) over this time.  They do play tougher at home, but Philly's D has been bad lately allowing 288-2TD for 21.3 pts/game over that time.  This is a division game, but it's also the only game that I saw where both teams going against each other showed up on my list ( Washington has been the worst over this time giving up 291-2.3TD for 23.4pts/g to QBs), so maybe this will be more of an air attack for both teams. 

Qbs that met the criteria, but teams had a lower implied total:

Eli (5500):  Might be my favorite for the week.  Low price, and Dallas can be had through the air.  NYG are also home underdogs, so they might have to play catchup a little.  Never hugely excited about rostering Eli, but the price is right and Dallas have been giving up an average of 316 through the air over this time and almost 2TDs for 20.5pts/g.  Eli would just need 16.5 for cash value and 22+ for gpp value. 

Palmer (5700):  Az are underdogs on the road and Mia have given up some yards through the air over the last couple weeks.  They average 21pts/g over that time to QBs, so probably fairly safe that he can hit the 17.1 needed for cash. 

Remember, these were from a list of QBs that were in the tops for scoring over the last 5 weeks.  A couple cheap plays stood out as going against the 2 teams allowing the most pts/g to QBs over this time frame are Wentz (5100) who has hit 3x the last 3 games and Wash is allowing 23.4pts to QBs the last 5 weeks and the Denver QB 5100/5000 (like it a ton more if it's Siemian).  Tenn is letting 22.7/g to Qbs over this time. 

I like what you did there. I really like Cousins this week. He's in the hunt for the playoffs and in a contract year. Redskins are also a little soft on the run game so I expect plenty of production from Cousins.

Palmer is also intriguing to me. Miami completely collapsed this past week. Their offensive line is very banged up. A Palmer/DJ/AZ defense is interesting to me.

Ive been burned too much by Eli and Wilson so I will stick with them in GPP.

I love Rogers this week based on his price and Earl Thomas being out.

freeannyong said:

I love Rogers this week based on his price and Earl Thomas being out.

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That will definitely help - Seattle D isn't as dominate without Thomas lurking around.  Rodgers' price dropped again despite a decent day and still being the highest scoring QB over the past few weeks.  0 production out of the RBs doesn't hurt either.  For whatever reason Nelson's price dropped as well, again despite having a good week and being the WR2 over the time I am talking about.

The other QB that was very close to my criteria above was Winston at 6700 at home vs. NO. 

jimmyjavelin said:

I like what you did there. I really like Cousins this week. He's in the hunt for the playoffs and in a contract year. Redskins are also a little soft on the run game so I expect plenty of production from Cousins.

Palmer is also intriguing to me. Miami completely collapsed this past week. Their offensive line is very banged up. A Palmer/DJ/AZ defense is interesting to me.

Ive been burned too much by Eli and Wilson so I will stick with them in GPP.

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I hear you on that, and don't blame you one bit. 

Just glanced at MT's projections and he has Rodgers, Wilson, and Cousins as QBs 2, 5, and 6 and all have that nice price in the 6000s. 

Don't look now, but Kaepernick he has at QB2 vs. the Jets!!

Pretty sure they are calling for snow again in GB

Still working on WRs, and the Rbs have a lot more options, so I will rattle off TEs quick.  Same thing applied - looked at the top 10 scorers in the last 5 weeks and compared them to the Ds they are facing to see if there were some that stuck out where the Ds are averaging points that would give the TE at least 3x on their salary if they hit that average. 

The first couple are from teams who are in the top 1/2 of implied team total:

Graham (5500):  Remember I said that GB is terrible all around on D?  They are giving up the most points to TEs during this time as well.  They have been averaging 8-84 .6Tds for 19.6pts/g to the position.  Over this time Graham has been averaging 6.6 targets/game.  One of the higher priced TEs on the board and would need 16.5 to hit cash value. 

Brate (4100): I think this is the way I am leaning based on price.  Home favored TEs historically do better, and TB lost even more weapons over the weekend.  Seems to be getting in sync with Winston and is getting 6 targets/game.  NO averages 5-66 .4Tds over this time for 13.6 pts/g. 

Witten (3100):  Not sure what to do with this one.  Statistically and price-wise might be in the best spot, but the targets have been dropping like a rock the last couple games.  The Giants have given up 6-100 .4Td (that's right, 100 yds) for 18.4pts/g to the TE over this stretch.  Maybe a gpp play, as I can't ignore the 5 targets two weeks ago and the 0 last week. 

One that who's team isn't in the top 1/2 for implied total:

Ertz (4900):  Man, his price has jumped a bit recently.  Wash is giving up 7-76 .5 for 17.1pt/g over this time, and he is the top targeted TE over this stretch averaging 9.4 targets/game.  That is nuts.  I like him and the top 2 this week, so it might just come down to how much I have left for the TE position as I work things. 

Megla said:

Pretty sure they are calling for snow again in GB

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Snow is fine, ice and wind are not.  Right now it just says flurries.  As we have seen, this is all just best guess - Brees in a dome out of the elements should have been $$ last week too. 

Nice work Karma!  What site are you using to see the points scored and points given up over the last 5 weeks?

Don't have time to add much, but thanks for doing some research Karma........I need something to change my luck on DK!

Steeler said:

Nice work Karma!  What site are you using to see the points scored and points given up over the last 5 weeks?

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FBG.  Custom Fantasy Points Allowed, you can tweak by postition, weeks you look at, and by the main two dfs sites. 

However, now that you bring it up, somebody got scolded for posting subscription info and LUs on the boards, I guess I shouldn't be posting those stats either?  I keep forgetting that all that info is in the subscription area.  Not sure, I mean stuff like that can be found by looking at other sites for free as well, I just look here first.  I think what somebody threw the flag at was posting what Dodds had as LU suggestions from the site. 

Ok, I will post in general and not actually put up stats, but you know what I was looking at for the list.  Not really going to talk much about Bell and DJ.  We know the situation there - we probably aren't really expecting both to make cash and gpp value, but we are paying up to basically make sure we get 20pts from a couple of positions.  DJ at near 10K is really going to make you find value elsewhere (having him every week makes you do this anyway).  The ones in blue are the ones I like the best. 

There is only one back that hit all the categories I like as well as the criteria close to what I talked about at the other positions - I also looked for high team total and home RB.  That RB is Blount (5300), and I highly doubt many are looking to roster him.  Trouble with looking at these stats is if the RB shares touches a lot with anybody, it obviously decreases the chances of the Rb hitting value, and I would bet that more of Balt's point allowed to Rbs are via the receiving game. 

Home Rbs that made the list that are top scorers over this time:

D.Murray (7000):  He is the only home favorite that made the list.  The way to attack the Denver D is by running it a lot, and I was surprised at how many yds/g they were letting over the last 5 weeks.  Tenn is coming off a bye and the run game is a strength. 

Jennings (4900):  The only other Home top scorer, but they are dogs at home.  One of the cheaper options, and he is involved in the passing game a little, so that helps.  Still, I am sure I will look elsewhere.

Here are top scorers who qualified that are on the road this week:

Gordon (7400):  Carolina got schooled by Rawls last week without Keuchley(sp?).  Does get some targets in the passing game if they get behind as well, although that looks like it has decreased a tad in the last couple weeks. 

L.Murray (5200):  His price still hasn't come up, and is in a little bit of a muddled backfield, but has been scoring a lot lately.  Might be one of the better cheaper options if you are going with the Thurs-Mon slate.  But if you are doing that it is probably more get some of the Oakland passing attack. 

Freeman (6100):  L.A. plays a little bit better at home, but still - it's the ####ty Rams.   Julio is dinged again, and I think so is Sanu.  This just might be the perfect game to ride out the RBs and let the WRs heal a bit. 

Howard (6400):  Detroit are decent favorites, so this might depend on how much you think he will be involved with the passing attack, and that is where a lot of Rbs score their points on Detroit. 

Kelley (4200)  Another cheaper option.  Won't take much to reach value, but he is not involved in the passing game, so this will probably need to be a case where you think Wash will be up on the Eagles a bit.  Plus Gruden claims to want to get him more involved. 

Here are ones that have favorable matchups:

Forte (6800):  I assume he got the "playing SF" bump in price, as he is higher than expected.  I would expect the Jets to be happy running the ball in this game. 

Gurley (5000):  Atl has been one of the worst Ds all year overall.  gpp special, but how often has he even gotten to 3x this year?

Ware (6300):  Just had a nice game, but was disappointing a bit before that.  At home in a division game..

Rawls (5700):  Has looked damn good, and have I said that GB sucks all around on D yet?? Also doesn't have much competition for carries, which is nice. 

Hyde (4900):  Let's not pretend that NYJ is a great team or anything.  Overall for the year they were tough vs. the run, but that has dipped a little bit over this time frame.  Also Petty is starting, not that it is probably any worse than Fitz at the helm.

J.Hill (5800):  Never a bad idea to target the Browns in dfs.  His price has really climbed and he does have a little competition for touches now.  Tough to fade anybody vs. the Browns, but I think I personally would rather pay 300 more for Freeman or save 100 with Rawls and get the guys on the better offenses.  Hill will be very chalky this week though.

I didn't mention them because they are a little pricier vs. what the Ds going up against them have allowed lately, but you gotta still be looking at McCoy (8200) and Zeke (8400). Dallas is favored on the road, and McCoy is active enough in the passing game.  If I remember the podcast I was listening to correctly, Pitts is the only team to allow 10+ TDs on the ground and 5+ Tds to Rbs in the passing game on the year. 

Wrs are a bit murkier b/c I can see how much the Ds allow to WRs, but you have to split that up.  In the end I just look for WRs that are seeing a lot of targets or team % of targets and go from there.  A few I like this week, and it looks like a similar list every week:

Nelson (6800):  Sure he gets Sherman, but that is without Thomas, and that makes a difference.  He is still the WR2 over this time frame and has seen the most targets/game over this time frame.  Way too cheap for this production and offense, IMO. 

Evans (8900):  Gets the Saints, and Winston has less targets to throw do, so just might pepper Evans with 15+ targets. 

OBJ (8000):  The cheapest of the big 4, and is at home vs. a Dallas D that has been getting thrown on a lot lately.  Seems to do better at home too. 

Tyrell Williams (6100):  Car has been passed on all year.  

Ginn (4000):   Sad to say, but seems to be the only Car Wr that is worth a crap lately, and he is cheap.

T.Gabriel (4300):  Love it 5x more if Sanu and/or Julio are hobbled this weekend. 

D.Thomas (6000)/E.Sanders (5700):  These two are about as cheap as they have been all year, and they both are top 10 as far as targets/game because they are the passing game.  Like this a lot more if Siemian plays, and I assume this is a bit of a "Paxton Lynch" discount in their salaries. 

Crowder (5600)/Garcon(4200):  I highlighted how bad the passing Ds are in this game.  Keep an eye on Crowder's health, as I think he had a hip injury during the game.  Garcon gets a lot of targets for a 4200 guy. 

Baldwin (6800):  Yep, GB stinks, and yep I am looking at Baldwin again.  One of the best scorers lately, but doesn't see a ton of targets like the top end guys do. 

This just scratches the surface, but thought it was a decent place to start. 

Very nice write ups Karma. Lots of really good thoughts..................

Here are my general thoughts for the week so far. 

Oak at KC- I am fading this game myself, I have been having terrible luck playing the Thursday night game. I will put a Thur/Mon cash LU in, but with nobody from this game going. I think there are some good options in play this game. It is going to freezing cold (Single digit wind chill) in KC at game time, so don't know how that will effect things. I like KC to win this game at home in a fairly low scoring game. On the KC side I like Kelce and Ware. My personal feeling on the Raiders is that they are not as good as their record indicates. I love Carr most weeks, just not this week at Arrowhead. Same for Cooper. 

Pitts at Buff- I think this will be a tougher game than people think. Can Ben play a good game away from home? I like Bell of course, but not as high on AB this week. McCoy is in play for Buffalo, but I hate the fact they keep bringing in Gillislee at the goal line. I McCoy better on DK than FD. I also like Watkins as a GPP play this week. I love the way Pittsburgh used L. Green last week. They moved him all over the place and he is much more athletic than I thought for a big guy. They are using him like a WR really, plus he is a huge Redzone target. He will probably be pretty highly owned this week. 

Cash-Bell, L. Green, and McCoy on DK           GPP- Bell, McCoy, Watkins, AB, L. Green. 

Broncos at Tenn. - I don't like anybody from Denver if Simian doesn't play. If he plays I like Sanders and Thomas. I think Tenn. could surprise in this game. Denver can be run on and that makes Murray and Mariota good options. The fact that Walker is the defacto WR1 also helps Tenn. I don't see the WR's doing much, but Walker, Murray, and Mariota could have very good games. I like them even more if Simian is out again. 

Cash-Murray, Mariota on FD. Sanders and DT if Simian plays.       GPP- Murray, Mariota, Walker, Sanders, DT. 

Redskins at Eagles - I am all over the Redskins in this game. The Eagles offense is in crisis mode, and their pass defense is not good. I think Cousins is going to eat them up this week. The whole passing attack is in play and I also think Kelley is too. Ertz looks to be the only reliable option for the Eagles in the passing game, and they will have to pass to stay in game. 

Cash-Cousins, DJax on FD, Garcon on DK, Reed or VD.            GPP- All Cash options, Ertz, Sproles, Washington Defense. 

Ariz at Miami - I think Miami still has something to play for, not so sure with Ariz. I actually like Ajayi in this game a lot, and of course DJ. Palmer and Fitz are in play also. I like Parker if he is healthy also. One guy I am looking at as a TE punt play is Gresham. Ajayi actually ran the ball pretty well last week against a tough Raven rush defense, but they got behind and abandoned the run. He even got some targets in the passing game. If his offensive line stays/gets healthy I can see Miami getting back to just pounding it. DJ is always in play in cash, but I think he is getting to the point that you could fade him in GPP's. I am assuming Peterson will be on Landry, if he is on Parker, than take him out of the equation and put Landry in. 

Cash-DJ, Ajayi               GPP-cash options, Parker, Fitz, Gresham. 

Minn at Jax- Just play the Minnesota defense in cash and forget it. Bottles sucks period. 

Cash-Minnesota Defense.               GPP - Patterson, I can see him getting a special teams TD or long pass play. 

Texans at Colts - Everyone will probably be on the Colts this week after Monday night. I will be on Luck at home for sure myself. This is a big game for both teams, and Indy has been in more of these than Houston. Plus there is no comparison at the QB level. Miller had a good game against the Colts in Houston, but I don't think he is healthy this time around. TY is in play at home on the turf, and I think it's Doyle's turn this week also. CJ is getting lots of talk, but the other TE is getting targets also. Hopkins and Fuller are both decent GPP plays, as Houston will have to pass to stay in game. Remember though, who is throwing the ball!

Cash-Luck, TY, Vini               GPP-Cash options, Doyle, Moncrief, Hopkins, Fuller, CJ 

San Diego at Carolina- One of my favorite games of the week. I am not a Cam fan, but his pride will carry him this week. He is at home coming off a bad game. Rivers and the SD passing attack is also in play, that includes Gordon. I like both Kickers also. Ginn does look to be the best WR right now in Carolina, I don't know what is going on with Benjamin. He looks lost and frustrated. Olsen is another guy that has fallen off the radar that I love for GPP this week. I think this is a high scoring game. 

Cash- Gordon (especially if Keuchly is out)          GPP- Cam, Olsen, Ginn, Rivers, Williams, Inman, Gates. 

To be continued.........................

If you guys aren't doing it already, The Worksheet on rotoworld is really a must read each week.  It is just littered with interesting stats that make you think about some of your picks such as Eli hasn't been a QB12 or higher vs. Dallas in the last 3 games and has only been Qb12 or higher twice this year. 

Good stuff floating around in here. Been MIA most of this season due to various reasons but have just started burying my head back in DFS for the rear end of football season. 

Sitting on a few different lineups, a lot revolving around Jameis as my QB against a spotty saints D. Is he not being mentioned more so due to not being able to reach his "value" consistently? Just curious, seems like a JUICY match up. However, I can see the pitch for cousins as well.   

Karma you been holding out on me Buddy.....just kidding. The Worksheet is a great read, I wish I had known about it earlier. Sometimes I get information overload and worry about reading too many opinions. But, when you read something that strikes a cord with you, you probably better keep reading it. That's why I read and listen to everything John Lee says.......

Anyway, thanks for letting me know about that article, sorry to say, that was my first time at Rotoworld, ugh........i am a loser!

Ebaker5 said:

Good stuff floating around in here. Been MIA most of this season due to various reasons but have just started burying my head back in DFS for the rear end of football season. 

Sitting on a few different lineups, a lot revolving around Jameis as my QB against a spotty saints D. Is he not being mentioned more so due to not being able to reach his "value" consistently? Just curious, seems like a JUICY match up. However, I can see the pitch for cousins as well.   

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I was coming back in to post that I like him this week, and he BARELY missed the criteria I listed above.  I just scanned through, and he has only missed hitting 3x once since their bye (unfortunately, that was last week).  One thing that might give me pause a little is that his passing options are dropping like flies, and you wouldn't have that concern with guys listed like Wilson, Cousins, etc..   That said, they have been perfectly fine in that situation before and will just sling it to Evans all day. 

podunker said:

Karma you been holding out on me Buddy.....just kidding. The Worksheet is a great read, I wish I had known about it earlier. Sometimes I get information overload and worry about reading too many opinions. But, when you read something that strikes a cord with you, you probably better keep reading it. That's why I read and listen to everything John Lee says.......

Anyway, thanks for letting me know about that article, sorry to say, that was my first time at Rotoworld, ugh........i am a loser!

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HERE is another good free site, and I linked to their Defense page.  Brakes down rankings by positions - WR1, WR2, other WR, TE, and RB (for passing).  Also has general rankings for passing and rushing D.  Also next to the rankings by positions it gives the average pass attempts at that spot and yds allowed to that spot on the year. 

Yeah, pod - completely get what you say about getting overloaded with stats and opinions. 

Ok, here is how I see the rest of the slate.........

Cinci at Clev - Everyone on Cinci should be in play this game. Dalton is under rated most weeks, even more now with AJ out. Hill hasn't done much with his chances yet, but that could change this week. I like him to have a few good TD chances. Who is playing QB for Cleveland? Does it matter. I like Pryor as decent volume play, they will have to pass the ball and he is their best player period. 

Cash- Probably nobody, I like Dalton and Eifert if I have to pick somebody.    GPP- Cash options, Hill, Pryor

Bears at Lions - Detroit's defense is really playing well right now, and they are my no. 2 defense of the week. Stafford is playing more like Brady of late, but his mobility is better than Tom's. He gets the ball out quick and is very accurate with it. Tate, Ebron, and Boldin all should be in play. Tate has been the most consistent of the bunch, but I have a hunch Ebron has a big week. I don't like Riddick as much this week, as I think they will be ahead most of the game, and won't need to pass to him as much. Howard is the only play on the Bears, but I think they stop him and try to make Barclay beat them. 

Cash-Stafford, Tate, Lions Def.            GPP- Cash options, Ebron, Boldin

Jets at 49ers - After watching that Jets game, I still can't believe what I saw. I would say they are playing for the Coaches job this week. Forte has to be in play against the 49ers and with Petty at QB. I like Anderson as a cheap GPP play, he has game breaker speed, and Petty was locked on to him. Kaepernick and McDonald screwed me last week too, so that means they are probably decent plays this week. What does that tell you when you bench a guy for bad play, and he is still your best option to win games. Probably just fade the whole game.......

Cash-Forte           GPP- Anderson, Marshall, McDonald, Kaep, Hyde

Saints at Tampa Bay- Tampa is another like the Raiders that I just can't make myself believe is for real, but they keep winning games and putting up points. Everyone is on Winston this week, and I understand why, but I am going with the All Pro coming off a terrible game. Brees will look to redeem himself this week. I love him and M. Thomas this week. Evans is always in play and I like Brate too. I think this game may be a shootout. 

Cash-Winston, MT, and Evans                  GPP- Cash options, Brees, Brate

Falcons at Rams - Julio's injury has me worried a little. I like him if he is healthy. The Rams are not a good team, but the Falcons have a terrible defense, so I can see the Rams scoring some points. This might be finally the week Gurley gets something done, I like him for GPP. Britt has been getting the targets and should be a safe play. If Julio is limited, I think the Falcons will rely on the RB's to beat the Rams. I like Freeman also in this game. Gabriel is strictly GPP for me, even if Julio is out. Coleman is a GPP play if Julio is out also. 

Cash-Freeman, Britt, Julio if healthy              GPP- Cash options, Gurley, Gabriel, Coleman

Seattle at Green Bay - Everyone is back on the Wilson train, but I am going to pass on him myself. I like Rawls this week, and think they try to pound the ball to keep ARod off the field. Graham is a nice TE play against the poor packers defense. I think Jordy gets all the defensive focus this week, so Adams and Cobb seem like good plays to me. I understand why everyone likes the Seahawks passing game this week, and have no problem with playing anyone from it. 

Cash- ARod, Wilson, Rawls, Graham              GPP-Cash options, Seattle and GB WR's. 

Cowboys at Giants - Should be a fun game to watch Sunday night. My top RB of the week is Zeke against the Giants. Especially now with JPP out. I think Dak is also in play, and Dez. OBJ is the only player I like from NY, but Eli may surprise us and play well. I think the Cowboys are the real deal. 

Cash- Zeke, Dak, Dez, OBJ                       GPP- Witten, Eli, Beasley, Shepard, Jennings

Balt at Pats - Another good game to watch. I think the Pats will rely on the short passing game a lot with Edel and the quick RB's. Blount is going to have a hard time finding running room. I give Baltimore a decent chance to win this game. NE can be run on and passed on, but they usually don't give up the big play. Flacco, S. Smith, and Pitta are all in play. West and Dixon are GPP plays. Balt always plays NE tough. I like Lewis as a nice GPP play also. I am off the Bennett train. 

Cash-Brady, Flacco, Edelman, SS, Pitta              GPP - cash options, Wallace, Lewis, White, Mitchell, Dixon, West

Good luck everyone.............

KarmaPolice said:

I was coming back in to post that I like him this week, and he BARELY missed the criteria I listed above.  I just scanned through, and he has only missed hitting 3x once since their bye (unfortunately, that was last week).  One thing that might give me pause a little is that his passing options are dropping like flies, and you wouldn't have that concern with guys listed like Wilson, Cousins, etc..   That said, they have been perfectly fine in that situation before and will just sling it to Evans all day. 

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Agreed.

However, after reformatting around Cousins... I like the options- Best cash lineup i have pieced together looks something like this-

Cousins/D.Murray/McCoy/Crowder/T. Williams/Gabriel/L.Green/Hill/Jax

I could replace Hill with D.Freeman, which would be a SOLID choice but then I have a RB AND WR from ATL which I'm typically not fond of unless I'm mixing a WR1 and a RB1 or a QB/WR. Hill cleared 30pts last time he squared up against Cleveland if I remember right. Also could come off of Mccoy for maybe Gurley and grab a stronger WR. Still playing with it.  

Ebaker5 said:

Agreed.

However, after reformatting around Cousins... I like the options- Best lineup i have pieced together looks something like this-

Cousins/D.Murray/McCoy/Crowder/T. Williams/Gabriel/L.Green/Hill/Jax

I could replace Hill with D.Freeman, which would be a SOLID choice but then I have a RB AND WR from ATL which I'm typically not fond of unless I'm mixing a WR1 and a RB1 or a QB/WR. Hill cleared 30pts last time he squared up against Cleveland if I remember right.

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I came up with something similar.  Might have to look at Green again though, but wrote down:

Cousins or Rodgers - McCoy/Murray - Sanders(if Siemian plays)/T.Williams/Ginn - Brate - Freeman - TB

Also could drop to Eli/Palmer and get Nelson in there as an upgrade from T.Williams, so:

Palmer - McCoy/Murray - Nelson/Sanders/Ginn - Brate - Freeman - TB

Still working, and it is weird not having either Bell or DJ in there as well. 

KarmaPolice said:

I came up with something similar.  Might have to look at Green again though, but wrote down:

Cousins or Rodgers - McCoy/Murray - Sanders(if Siemian plays)/T.Williams/Ginn - Brate - Freeman - TB

Also could drop to Eli/Palmer and get Nelson in there as an upgrade from T.Williams, so:

Palmer - McCoy/Murray - Nelson/Sanders/Ginn - Brate - Freeman - TB

Still working, and it is weird not having either Bell or DJ in there as well. 

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Ya, not having one of them is weird. DJ is just crazy expensive and you really have to find value EVERYWHERE else. Not worth it IMO. 

Wilson

Forte, Ware

Nelson, Ginn, Rishard

Graham

Freeman

Jax

Thoughts?

 What are you guys thinking in the 4000 range for GPP flex... Garcon, Ginn, Rob Kelley, Taylor Gabriel, Cameron Meredith? Leaning Kelley or Garcon

chasyone said:

Wilson

Forte, Ware

Nelson, Ginn, Rishard

Graham

Freeman

Jax

Thoughts?

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The only ones I am not sure about are Ware and R.Matthews.  Ware just because I didn't look at the Thurs game that much, and Matthews b/c I am not educated enough to know where he lines up in comparison vs. those CBs.  Usually just a safe bet to fade WRs going against Denver.

Also, considering how Seattle beat the tar out of Carolina, considering the trifecta stack of Wilson/Baldwin/Lockett. Not convinced GB had fixed anything in their secondary 

pbandy1 said:

 What are you guys thinking in the 4000 range for GPP flex... Garcon, Ginn, Rob Kelley, Taylor Gabriel, Cameron Meredith? Leaning Kelley or Garcon

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I have realized that I stink as far as guessing what ownership %s might be, but of those, I think Gabriel will damn near chalk based on his performance the last couple weeks and the injury concerns of the other WRs.  Ginn never seems popular, but he would be second on that list.  The Wash guys would seem like good gpp plays. 

pbandy1 said:

Also, considering how Seattle beat the tar out of Carolina, considering the trifecta stack of Wilson/Baldwin/Lockett. Not convinced GB had fixed anything in their secondary 

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I have tried this 2 weeks in a row without great results and was considering going for 3 in a row.  If they are slinging it like that, bringing it back with Nelson on the cheap is probably a good play as well. 

@pbandy1

Here were cheap gpp plays that were on my early radar (I think all have shown the ability to have a 20pt game in them)

Coleman (4000):  Especially if Julio is limited.  People will be on Gabriel, but this might be an interesting pivot from him.

Crowell (3900):  Cinci isn't great, and he is coming off the bye. 

D.Lewis (3900):  Balt is stout vs the run, but they can be attacked by Rbs via the passing game. 

Sims (?):  Didn't see him on the IVC, but NO is one of the worst Ds vs. receiving RBs and TB is Jonesin' for options to throw to.  If I remember an article or podcast correctly, I think they were talking about how they probably made a mistake putting him on IR and is probably more ready to contribute coming off an injury than people might expect?

WRs I didn't have much that you didn't have listed.  Maybe Coleman and the Pats' Wrs Mitchell and Hogan are in that range.  Could also go back to the well with Lockett?  DK has really clamped down on their pricing, and I usually end up with a RB in the flex because of that b/c you some rushing touches + the passing targets. 

Another way to be different with the LUs is throwing a TE in the flex as well.  Usually they are cheaper and you can save elsewhere too.  I got lucky last week doing that.  And if you are thinking about having Graham in a stack, it isn't a horrible idea to throw a guy like L.Green in the flex for fun. 

pbandy1 said:

Also, considering how Seattle beat the tar out of Carolina, considering the trifecta stack of Wilson/Baldwin/Lockett. Not convinced GB had fixed anything in their secondary 

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Sorry, thought that was Graham, not Lockett.  Both are good options, just read it wrong before posting some of the above. 

KarmaPolice said:

I have realized that I stink as far as guessing what ownership %s might be, but of those, I think Gabriel will damn near chalk based on his performance the last couple weeks and the injury concerns of the other WRs.  Ginn never seems popular, but he would be second on that list.  The Wash guys would seem like good gpp plays. 

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Also considering Ty Montgomery at 3900. and Lockett. 

Edit: also, fantasylabs has been very reliable for ownership %

KarmaPolice said:

The only ones I am not sure about are Ware and R.Matthews.  Ware just because I didn't look at the Thurs game that much, and Matthews b/c I am not educated enough to know where he lines up in comparison vs. those CBs.  Usually just a safe bet to fade WRs going against Denver.

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Replace Rishard with Watkins or Desean?

chasyone said:

Replace Rishard with Watkins or Desean?

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We talkin' cash or tourney LU here?  Both of those guys seem pretty boom/bust too. 

pbandy1 said:

Also considering Ty Montgomery at 3900. and Lockett. 

Edit: also, fantasylabs has been very reliable for ownership %

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I assume that is part of the $ service?  I do have their app, but didn't think I could see the % there except for the few that are mentioned in their positional articles. 

KarmaPolice said:

We talkin' cash or tourney LU here?  Both of those guys seem pretty boom/bust too. 

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I guess cash. I have been playing $1 tourneys. My cash Is my league. It's $22 to first. I really want to stack Winston and Evans but have trouble finding value on lower guys 

chasyone said:

I guess cash. I have been playing $1 tourneys. My cash Is my league. It's $22 to first. I really want to stack Winston and Evans but have trouble finding value on lower guys 

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A cheaper and equally potent stack would be Cousins/Crowder assuming crowder is healthy through the week. 

My league LU on DK

Cousins

Forte, Ware

Nelson, Crowder, Ginn

Graham

Freeman

Jax

chasyone said:

My league LU on DK

Cousins

Forte, Ware

Nelson, Crowder, Ginn

Graham

Freeman

Jax

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Some potential in that LU. I think JAX is going to do enough to keep their points up this week. Their D ranks in the top 10 I believe, no reason we should have 5+ points from them at the end of the day. 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Another great resource IMO if you are not already using it. Breaks down each D by their run/pass ranking and then in the passing game it breaks down their ranking on #1, #2, Other WR, TE and RB.

It really helps me decide where i want to pick certain receivers and what weeks i want to go with a bruiser back or a pass catcher out of the backfield. 

You know, I think stuff has changed enough and I have seen a couple values in the 3000s that I am really thinking about going back to the well and playing Bell and DJ both in my cash LU.  TBD...

Also just as an overall observation, especially for gpps, DK seems to be a bit more reactive than FD as far as matchups and last weeks games go and I think you can exploit that both ways for tournaments. 

Examples:

Eifert now is the highest priced guy b/c he plays the Browns.  Still a fantastic play vs. the Browns and has a possibility of a 2 TD week, but combining the price jump and that people will be on players like L.Green, you might get him at low %.  PLUS just playing him makes you tweak your LU the rest of the way in a way you might not have thought about to get him in there that will make your lineup unique by default. 

On the other side of that spectrum, GB players and Tenn players get a drop in price b/c they are playing Seattle and Denver and I think the public perception would be just to stay away from that.  However, Denv isn't great vs. the TE and Seattle's D isn't nearly as good if even one of Cam/Sherman/Thomas is out.  So you can get guys like Nelson or D.Walker at a discount and probably low ownership. Then just build around that with more studs or a stack.

I kept saying it in the FD thread, but the more I look at championship LUs the more I see they just looked like cash+ LUs with stacks/triple stacks/games stacks.  95% I look at them and see players we usually expect to do well doing well.  Long story short (and I have a big tendency to gravitate this way) I think when a lot of people think they need to stand out in a gpp they need to get really weird.  Sure, nobody else might have a Bortles-Lee stack, but how often out of 1000 times is that going to get you anywhere? I think it's more about identifying the studs that are mispriced (D.Murray?) or you think maybe will be lower owned. 

Re arranged a little.... in a pickle now... Gordon or D. Murray in the flex.  Leaning Murray simply because the Titans are likely going to HAVE to run. 

So, it's a little weird construction, but if I have a LU that has:

Cousins

Bell/DJ

Choice of: Nelson/Baldwin/Edelman

Choice of: Sanders/Crowder

and maybe a couple punts. I probably should consider that, right?

Ebaker5 said:

Re arranged a little.... in a pickle now... Gordon or D. Murray in the flex. 

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That is a hard one.  I usually lean toward the home Rb.  Plus I think Denver lost a LB, and Carolina might get Luke back.  I would give D.Murray a slight edge, but that could just be bitterness that the two times I tried Gordon he kinda stunk. 

KarmaPolice said:

So, it's a little weird construction, but if I have a LU that has:

Cousins

Bell/DJ

Choice of: Nelson/Baldwin/Edelman

Choice of: Sanders/Crowder

and maybe a couple punts. I probably should consider that, right?

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So you get Bell AND DJ?

I would go Baldwin/Crowder and then grab your punts. Crowder simply because you stack him and Cousins at that point. 

My tweak puts me with:

Cousins

Gurley (I think they use him in this game to check down and allow Goff to get comfortable)

McCoy

Baldwin

Crowder

Gabriel

L.Green

D.Murray

Jax

Not WILD about Gabriel, but I think he has the best ceiling of the guys in his price range. That is $400 in either direction, really the only option in that range. 

That was my cash lineup-

GPP if I put some together I may go: Wentz/DJ/Bell/Lee/Gabriel/Ginn/Witten/Elliot/Phins

Ebaker5 said:

So you get Bell AND DJ?

I would go Baldwin/Crowder and then grab your punts. Crowder simply because you stack him and Cousins at that point. 

My tweak puts me with:

Cousins

Gurley (I think they use him in this game to check down and allow Goff to get comfortable)

McCoy

Baldwin

Crowder

Gabriel

L.Green

D.Murray

Jax

Not WILD about Gabriel, but I think he has the best ceiling of the guys in his price range. That is $400 in either direction, really the only option in that range. 

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Yep, that would give me Bell and DJ in the LU. 

Thinking about splitting it up and doing one with Edelman/Sanders for the Thurs-Mon slate and Nelson/Crowder for the Sunday main slate.  Not sure. 

I like your LU except for Gurley.  Sad to say with his talent, but getting 15pts might be pushing it for him.  That said, Atl's D does stink.