Since you are basically admitting to being an underdog, because of the other teams studs like EZE and + matchups, then you need to go with the highest upside.
Sure, Rodgers puts up the occasional bad game, but here is a very real situation where you may have to have a monster game to win and stay alive.
As strong as Carr has been all season, Rodgers is currently the #1 QB in fantasy football in standard formats, and in fact he is the #1 player in fantasy.
Carr has little to no history in bad weather, yet Rodgers does, PLUS he is at home. (admittedly vs. the Seahawks) They are also minus Thomas.
Lets put it simply- you have a matchup, where you are an underdog, so you are looking for some possible huge upside. Both QB have been doing well this year, but one is not only accustomed to playing in cold weather, but he easily has the highest upside (and longer track record of blow up games) to boot.
I have Carr going in a couple leagues, but I don't really think this is a close choice. Its Rodgers easy.
Ask yourself this......
Suppose you start Carr, and lose by a few points and then you would have won starting Rodgers.
Are you going to be asking yourself all offseason ..." WTF was I doing sitting Aaron Rodgers/the #1 QB in fantasy in a must win playoff game where I needed some immense upside?"
Can you live with actually sitting Rodgers (if you lose) in a must win game where you likely need some big points/upside???
This is a case where if you start Rodgers and lose...then you just lose. Take your lumps. Then you can say "I swung for the fences and I started the #1 QB in fantasy".
TZM