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KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 16

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On we go. Another interesting week.  Looks like there are 3 games with high o/us this week:  TB @ NO, Atl @ Car, and Indy @ Oak.  Right now all are at 52.5 or 53.  The next one is Wash @ Chic at 46, and then everything else is 44 and under.  NE are monster home faves vs. the Jets, and Seattle are pretty big faves vs. AZ at home. 

 

 

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Qbs: 

Usually we look at the high scoring games and go from there, but I am not sure where that leads us.  Winston, Cam, and Carr have been pretty spotty lately.  Brees is probably the safest, but he put up a turd at home a couple weeks ago, TB is playing better D, and this is a second meeting in division.  Ryan is probably next vs. Carolina especially if Julio is a go.  Usually don't love Luck on the road, but this looks like a decent spot vs. Oak.  I think I would go Ryan (with Julio), Brees, Luck in that order, but would still need to think about that.  Might just end up putting in Qb last and just going with whichever fits the salary I have left.   The other option is Brady vs NYJ who last allowed the 3rd most points to QBs over the last 5 weeks.  Rodgers is sub 7000 again vs. Minn at home.  They are a tough D, but he is the leading QB over this time.

Others that I saw using my process of looking at the top scorers over the last 5 vs. the Ds they are facing:

Wilson (6300):  Man, we've been down this path before.  The things that make me look in this direction are:  he's at home, he is getting to be in Rodgers territory in that their run game has been non-existent lately (plus AZ is stout vs. the run), and AZ has been beat lately through the air and has allowed 20pt/g over the last 5 games. 

Kaepernick (5700):  Again, been here before.  Had that one dud week in the snow.  Last week wasn't horrible, as he did reach around that 3x value we want for cash.  Going against the Rams who have allowed the 2nd most points to QBs over this time.

Dalton (5300):  Might get Green back, which would be a big plus.  Houston hasn't been horrible vs. the pass, but have allowed enough that Dalton could get to that 3x level. 

gpps:  Eli, Ben, Winston, Carr, Barkley

 

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TEs:

This is tough one this week, as usually more stick out to me.  2 that do have to be monitored for injuries one way or the other:  L.Green and Griffin.  Green is in concussion protocol, but if he is a go Balt has been allowing quite a few points to the TE lately.  Cinci is just as bad vs. TEs, but we will have to monitor is CJ Fied is playing this week for Houston. 

Others that were close when I looked:

Ertz (5300):  His price has jumped so much over the last few weeks due to his volume.  Might be too much, as he is now more expensive than Kelce, but he sees such a huge # of targets. 

Brate (3900):  NO have been decent vs. Tes, but still allow enough to get Brate to 3x. 

Pitta (3000):  Price is right, but might be a little hit or miss as far as usage for my tastes. 

D.Sims (2600):  Buff is tougher vs. TEs, but he is the TE6 in scoring over the last 5 weeks. 

Gresham (2500):  Didn't see the targets last week, but is still min priced and was seeing volume before that.  Seattle might be able to shut the Wrs down enough to make them look in his direction again?

gpps:  Kelce, Cook, Bennett, Eifert

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Rbs:

I will start with the top 4 for now, and go from there

Bell (9400):  Last time Pitts and Baltimore met, Bell had 13pts and he was only 7700.  This time it's at home, and they are favored, but that's something to consider.  We would be looking to get those 25+pts from Bell and that has happened vs Balt only 3 times this year. 

DJ (9200):  Another tough draw for our studs here.  Seattle has only allowed about 11pts/g to RBs over the last 5 weeks.  He did have 28pts against them when they met in AZ earlier this year, but just like vs. Balt, that has only happened 3 times vs. Seattle. 

McCoy (9000):  Now we are getting to a little better matchup.  At home vs. Miami, who are giving up the 4th most points to Rbs over the past 5 weeks.  Of course the problem is Mr. Gilleslee and him vulturing TDs. 

Zeke (7900):  Doesn't have the ppr floor the others do, but for some reason he got a discount this week.  It's probably worth getting in on the Thurs-Monday slate to get some of Zeke at sub-8000 prices. 

 

As you can tell with the tone of my post, I am not overly excited about using the top 2 in cash although it just makes me sweat leaving these guys out of the LU.  All 3 of the top are in division battle vs. a team for the second time on the season, and that usually favors the Ds.  This will be an interesting decision. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Bell is not on the main slate so lineup construction has a bit of a different feel this week.   The big problem right now is the WRs have been priced up so much there are no appealing options below 4500.

I think the one guy you left out of your RB list is Jordan Howard.   Pretty sure I am locking him into my cash games for a tiny bit of savings.   It's been very profitable to attack the redskins rush defense all year, and it isn't that hard to project him for 25 touches.

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15 minutes ago, freeannyong said:

Bell is not on the main slate so lineup construction has a bit of a different feel this week.   The big problem right now is the WRs have been priced up so much there are no appealing options below 4500.

I think the one guy you left out of your RB list is Jordan Howard.   Pretty sure I am locking him into my cash games for a tiny bit of savings.   It's been very profitable to attack the redskins rush defense all year, and it isn't that hard to project him for 25 touches.

Didn't realize that about Bell, I just clicked on Thurs-Mon for pricing.  Taking out him and Zeke is interesting for LUs.  

I will post other rbs tonight, and totally agree about Howard. 

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Yeah, it's a weird week for slates.  Looks like Saturday games are the "main slates", but looks like it's not the usual mix of gpps - ie no Millionaire Maker.  There is a huge one with a $4 entry that has a 100K 1st prize, so I will probably do a couple in there along with my usual smattering of 25cent gpp entries. 

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QB plays I'm looking at. 

Rivers - he's not been good lately but he's playing the #######g Browns. You think he'd force-feed targets to Gates in the endzone. Rivers-Gates stack is interesting.

Newton - He played well against WAS without much rushing yards. He plays ATL at home this week which is arguably a slightly worse defense than WAS as a whole... Julio Jones is not 100% and the CAR defense is playing much better in the 2nd half of this season, which may mean more offensive plays for Cam. The knock is the ATL corners are better than Washington, and this is the 2nd divisional game between these two teams which is usually lower scoring. Regardless, Cam-Olsen stack is what I'm looking at here.

Brady - Patriots playing at home. Usually NYJ plays NE touch but the Jets defense is some of the worst I've seen on TV. Patriots should score 40 points in this one as they still have something to play for. The knock here is that the NE defense is also coming on as well. Brady/Blount/Edelman/NE defense all in play - I wonder if Michael Floyd gets some redzone looks in prep. for playoffs?

Mariota - Played reasonably well against KC at Arrowhead. Jaguars defense is still nothing to scoff at but they are not nearly as KC... Gus Bradley was also just fired - Jags have nothing to play for, while the Titans have everything to play for. Mariota's rushing ability is also always in play - you don't need to stack him with anybody.

Wilson - Yeah, last time these two teams faced off it was an ugly 6-6 tie, but these are two different teams. Seahawks playing at home, Tyler Lockett is coming on, and Cardinals defense just getting picked apart by Brees. Wilson isn't Brees but he has wheels and a solid Wilson-Baldwin connection for major TD potential.

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RBs continued:

Howard (6300):  Wash D has been bad lately giving up almost 27pts/g to Rbs, and Howard is at home.  He is the RB5 over the last 5 weeks. 

Freeman (7100):  On the road vs. Car, whose run D hasn't been the same lately.  A little riskier than some of the others in this list b/c he is in more of a time share, higher priced, and on the road. 

L.Murray (6200):  At home vs. Indy.  Indy has been tougher lately, but Murray has averaged almost 23pts/g at home this year.  Oakland is favored with a pretty high implied team total.  

Hyde (5800):  LA is not good, but who knows how the Fisher-less team responds at home now.  They have been averaging giving up 25pts/g to Rbs over this time. 

L.Miller (5700):  We need to watch the injury report with this guy, but looking at what Cinci gives up to Rbs, he has a shot to hit 3x.  Just like LA, it will be interesting to see what this O does with the changes this week. 

D.Murray (7000):  Jags are a dumpster fire, and Tenn has to keep it's foot on the gas at the end of the year.  Still getting his touches and was very close to a TD last week that Henry ended up with a play or two later.  

File into the "uhhhhh...." category for gpps:

Gurley (6500):  Holy crap does DK pump up the salaries for matchups.  SF is awful vs. the run, so this will be the ultimate test for DFSers this week as we look at this guy who has all the talent in the world and hasn't done #### all year vs. this horrible D.  I am guessing he is going to be owned big time in gpps, which might make me stay off him when he is pricier than all but a couple Rbs on this list. 

Peterson (4600):  Didn't look great last week, and that OL stinks, but if there is one team that AP loves to feast on, it seems to be GB. 

HIllman (3400):  Damn near min priced.  He looked better than Farrow did last week, and Farrow had a costly fumble at the end of the game.  Cleveland sucks and SD is favored by almost a TD.  Wouldn't need much for tourney value. 

 

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yeah, it's a weird week for slates.  Looks like Saturday games are the "main slates", but looks like it's not the usual mix of gpps - ie no Millionaire Maker.  There is a huge one with a $4 entry that has a 100K 1st prize, so I will probably do a couple in there along with my usual smattering of 25cent gpp entries. 

The milly maker is there. It's just 1500 entry fee this week and called the main event I think. 

There is a huge 3 max for $27 which is a little above my usual range but I will probably take the plunge. I typically max enter the 3 max at $1, $3, $4. 

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2 hours ago, freeannyong said:

The milly maker is there. It's just 1500 entry fee this week and called the main event I think. 

There is a huge 3 max for $27 which is a little above my usual range but I will probably take the plunge. I typically max enter the 3 max at $1, $3, $4. 

Gotcha.  I usually filter by # of entries to see the big ones, so didn't see that $1500.  Probably still go with that $4 one, and I am curious to see if it fills up.  441K is a ####load of entries. 

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I have Zeke in a few lineups this week because of the price but with Dallas clinching last night do they rest him? 

Should I take him out of all or leave him in a couple?

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3 hours ago, chasyone said:

I have Zeke in a few lineups this week because of the price but with Dallas clinching last night do they rest him? 

Should I take him out of all or leave him in a couple?

That will be one of the huge questions to answer for today.  One of the things I like about DK is the ability to change LUs. 

IMO there isn't a risk that he will sit.  So stupid to kill momentum for a hot team had have a stud player not play a game for almost a month.  I think teams still look at the Colts doing that back in the day and go away from that.  HOWEVER, I would think that they decrease his role and maybe spell him with Morris more.  I think his upside is capped because of the Giants losing, but I don't think he will get 0 points.  If I were you, I would take him out of a couple LUs, but probably wouldn't take him out completely.  Crappy thing is he doesn't play until MNF, so we probably wouldn't hear much today anyway. 

What is your LU for the week?

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Down to my last couple of choices for my main cash linups, thoughts (Saturday only) ?

QB - Rodgers, RB - Mccoy, Howard, WR - Crabtree, Hopkins, ???, TE -  Brate, Flex - Ingram, Def ???

Looking:

Hogan, A. Robinson, Meredith paired with the Patriots D 

or

Snead or DJax paired with the 49ers

Edited by SwampDawg

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I am looking at using a 2 TE LU for one of my cash entries.  I just like how balanced the team looks with that as an option, and Reed looking like a no-good makes V.Davis a decent cheap option at 3000.  You could go even cheaper than that and go for a guy like Sims or Gresham.  Here are a couple options I had down:

Brees - D.Murray/Howard - Baldwin/Crabtree/M.Thomas - Olsen - V.Davis - SF(still looking at Ds)

Luck - D.Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Hopkins - Olsen - V.Davis - Buffalo

also used the idea to get 2 stud Rbs in there as well:

Brees - McCoy/Murray - Crabtree/Baldwin/Hopkins - Brate - V.Davis - NO or Chic

 

Any thoughts, comments, concerns on this as an option??

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8 minutes ago, SwampDawg said:

Down to my last couple of choices for my main cash linups, thoughts (Saturday only) ?

QB - Rodgers, RB - Mccoy, Howard, WR - Crabtree, Hopkins, ???, TE -  Brate, Flex - Ingram, Def ???

Looking:

Hogan, A. Robinson, Meredith paired with the Patriots D 

or

Snead or DJax paired with the 49ers

Of all those players listed, I personally like Meredith the best.  Saw a ton of targets even with Jeffery back, and they have been using him in the slot and he will be away from Norman there.  My big concern is having him and Howard in the same LU, and I am running into that issue as well.  Another guy that you don't have listed that I was staring at in that Merdith price range is Lockett, and wondering if I trust him enough. 

I am running into this a bit with my LUs of having players from the same team I like.  Ingram's price is good, but like Thomas too.  I like Howard and Meredith.  I like L.Murray and Crabtree.  Not having the top end guys as options this week is making these decisions interesting. 

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am looking at using a 2 TE LU for one of my cash entries.  I just like how balanced the team looks with that as an option, and Reed looking like a no-good makes V.Davis a decent cheap option at 3000.  You could go even cheaper than that and go for a guy like Sims or Gresham.  Here are a couple options I had down:

Brees - D.Murray/Howard - Baldwin/Crabtree/M.Thomas - Olsen - V.Davis - SF(still looking at Ds)

Luck - D.Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Hopkins - Olsen - V.Davis - Buffalo

also used the idea to get 2 stud Rbs in there as well:

Brees - McCoy/Murray - Crabtree/Baldwin/Hopkins - Brate - V.Davis - NO or Chic

 

Any thoughts, comments, concerns on this as an option??

Not a bad thought, I know Rotogrinders when you play with their lineup creator tool almost always uses the two TE option.

I tweeked what you had to Brees - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Hopkins - Brate - V.Davis - Patriots.  Still $500 left to tweak some more.

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13 minutes ago, SwampDawg said:

Not a bad thought, I know Rotogrinders when you play with their lineup creator tool almost always uses the two TE option.

I tweeked what you had to Brees - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Hopkins - Brate - V.Davis - Patriots.  Still $500 left to tweak some more.

I like that too. 

I have a hard time with the D prices on DK.  So much more variety vs. FD and they always get a huge jump for most home teams.  I usually look lower at D b/c very rarely do I get one that gets me more than 10-11 points and that's what we would need from the Pats this week.  Their run D is good, but not their pass D, so I do worry a tad about garbage time pass yds eating into their pt total for the week.  I think I would be inclined to drop from the Pats D to something else to move up from Hopkins to M.Thomas or Baldwin maybe?  Something like:

Brees - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Thomas - Brate - Davis - GB

Gives you a little stack bonus if you enter your LUs in 3x or 5x too.  Or you could do Baldwin instead of Thomas. 

I also like that this option gives you the ability to do other stacks if you want instead if you play with the D.  Luck/Hilton is doable if you drop to 2900 or less with the D.  Same with Brady/Edelman if you do Buffalo D.  Interesting....

 

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I like that too. 

I have a hard time with the D prices on DK.  So much more variety vs. FD and they always get a huge jump for most home teams.  I usually look lower at D b/c very rarely do I get one that gets me more than 10-11 points and that's what we would need from the Pats this week.  Their run D is good, but not their pass D, so I do worry a tad about garbage time pass yds eating into their pt total for the week.  I think I would be inclined to drop from the Pats D to something else to move up from Hopkins to M.Thomas or Baldwin maybe?  Something like:

Brees - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Thomas - Brate - Davis - GB

Gives you a little stack bonus if you enter your LUs in 3x or 5x too.  Or you could do Baldwin instead of Thomas. 

I also like that this option gives you the ability to do other stacks if you want instead if you play with the D.  Luck/Hilton is doable if you drop to 2900 or less with the D.  Same with Brady/Edelman if you do Buffalo D.  Interesting....

 

Stop giving me so many options...lol.

My last run got me Wilson - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Hopkins - Brate - Ingram - Patriots

I really like Ingram this week, just a gut feeling.

I do like this as well Rodgers - Murray/Howard - Nelson/Crabtree/Thomas - Brate - Ingram - D    The issue is that it only leave 2600 for the D and man that is some thin choices this week. Would probably have to go Arizona and hope for anther 6-6 tie type of game with Seattle.  I could drop 

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Random gpp thoughts as I looked through matchups, etc..

QB: 

Everybody will be on Brees, Luck, Carr this week or looking at some of the %s on sites go the other way with cheap guys like Barkley and Savage.  Just looking at points allowed over the last 5 weeks, Brady and Wilson look like they have a good matchup.  Not that % matters as much for Qbs.   I also think guys like Rodgers and Ryan are options too that might be overlooked. 

RB:

Definitely boom or bust, but Ajayi is interesting.  Division game and Buffalo is averaging 124yds and 1.2 TDs to Rbs over the last 5 weeks.  Only 5600. 

I like a few guys in the 5000s, and Hyde is one of them.  LA isn't great, and chip doesn't stop giving him the ball even if he is down.  For my taste, Gurley will be way too highly owned, and Hyde makes a cheap pivot off him in that game (I realize they had Bowman then, but Gurley is one of the few Rbs that haven't been able to run all over SF this year).

Montgomery didn't show signs of his sickle cell trait bothering him in the horrible cold last week, and it's supposed to be a bit warmer tomorrow in GB.  I still think there is still that "Minny D is tough" thought that will keep people away, but they have given up 100yds and 6receptions/g to Rbs over the last 5 weeks. 

Another dirt cheap dart is Sims.  Has slowly been getting back into the passing game and is involved in a game people are thinking could be a shootout.  NO is one of the worst teams vs. receiving RBs.  Definitely boom/bust, but he does have the talent. 

TE:

Again - boom/bust, but I think people will be over looking Bennett.  Hasn't been himself, but we know what his ceiling is.  NYJ gave up the 3TD game to Allen 3 weeks ago, and 2TDs to Sims last week.  Again, a pivot off guys like Mitchell and Edelman that will be popular. 

 

 

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How's this for my league?

Mariota

Zeke, Howard

Rishard, R Anderson, Jordy

Brate

Ware

Chiefs

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28 minutes ago, chasyone said:

How's this for my league?

Mariota

Zeke, Howard

Rishard, R Anderson, Jordy

Brate

Ware

Chiefs

Not sure the type of LUs that usually win.  I like a lot of the plays and combos.  The only one that sticks out is R.Anderson, mostly b/c of the really low team total for the Jets, but I guess that means they will have to sling it around and try to catch up.  Looks like he is projected for about the same as others in that price range like Lockett and Ginn, I just wonder if those guys have more chance to score b/c of the higher team totals. 

Just an observation, but you did also manage to mostly avoid the projected high scoring games too - TB/NO, Indy/Oak, and Atl/Car.  I would think that's a bigger risk in the smaller contests, but again, I don't have much experience in those type of leagues. 

The only other thing that I can think of is that you might want to flip Zeke to your flex.  That way on the off chance that Dallas comes out and says he's on a snap count on Monday or something silly, you would at least have the option to switch to someone else in that game if you want, like Dez or Tate. 

 

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6 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Not sure the type of LUs that usually win.  I like a lot of the plays and combos.  The only one that sticks out is R.Anderson, mostly b/c of the really low team total for the Jets, but I guess that means they will have to sling it around and try to catch up.  Looks like he is projected for about the same as others in that price range like Lockett and Ginn, I just wonder if those guys have more chance to score b/c of the higher team totals. 

Just an observation, but you did also manage to mostly avoid the projected high scoring games too - TB/NO, Indy/Oak, and Atl/Car.  I would think that's a bigger risk in the smaller contests, but again, I don't have much experience in those type of leagues. 

The only other thing that I can think of is that you might want to flip Zeke to your flex.  That way on the off chance that Dallas comes out and says he's on a snap count on Monday or something silly, you would at least have the option to switch to someone else in that game if you want, like Dez or Tate. 

 

Ok. I tried not to go with the big dogs because that's who everyone seems to go with. I also thought about doing Savage-Hopkins instead of Mariota-Rishard

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15 minutes ago, chasyone said:

Ok. I tried not to go with the big dogs because that's who everyone seems to go with. I also thought about doing Savage-Hopkins instead of Mariota-Rishard

Sounds good, and you know your league. 

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Well, good luck everybody!!

We had some snow last night that took out our internet, so I wasn't able to do as much or change things around so I am kinda flying blind with what I have going this week.  I did have 3 cash LUs in already and was able to throw some gpps around too. 

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Looking good so far. Spread my money out in double ups. I have 176 right now in one. I wish I would have used that one in my league. I would be win it running away. I'm just happy it looks like I might come out ahead this week. 

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42 minutes ago, chasyone said:

Looking good so far. Spread my money out in double ups. I have 176 right now in one. I wish I would have used that one in my league. I would be win it running away. I'm just happy it looks like I might come out ahead this week. 

:thumbup:

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2 hours ago, chasyone said:

Looking good so far. Spread my money out in double ups. I have 176 right now in one. I wish I would have used that one in my league. I would be win it running away. I'm just happy it looks like I might come out ahead this week. 

same here - 177 with AJ Green to go. Hopefully Michael Thomas / Ingram get some more looks.

I have Rob Kelley in that line-up and many others - just looked at the box score... had 3 TD looks vultured. :wall:

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23 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

same here - 177 with AJ Green to go. Hopefully Michael Thomas / Ingram get some more looks.

I have Rob Kelley in that line-up and many others - just looked at the box score... had 3 TD looks vultured. :wall:

Green isn't playing. 

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Green isn't playing. 

for real? I just woke up from a midnight shift .... so much for that lol.

Time for Wilson-Baldwin line-up to come through

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17 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

for real? I just woke up from a midnight shift .... so much for that lol.

Time for Wilson-Baldwin line-up to come through

 

Last I heard ownership stepped in and told him he wasn't playing.  You can always pivot to LaFell/Boyd or Hopkins to get some points. 

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3 hours ago, chasyone said:

Looking good so far. Spread my money out in double ups. I have 176 right now in one. I wish I would have used that one in my league. I would be win it running away. I'm just happy it looks like I might come out ahead this week. 

 

46 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

same here - 177 with AJ Green to go. Hopefully Michael Thomas / Ingram get some more looks.

I have Rob Kelley in that line-up and many others - just looked at the box score... had 3 TD looks vultured. :wall:

Nice scores, guys!  Who did you end up with at RB?  

I am up a little on the week, which I am just lucky to be b/c I had D.Murray in all 3 cash LUs.  Mostly scores in the 135-150 range, but nothing great.  One lineup with 135 and Hopkins still to go tonight. 

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Come on - Brees, Thomas and Cooks all one or two yards away from the DK bonus?? 

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

 

Nice scores, guys!  Who did you end up with at RB?  

I am up a little on the week, which I am just lucky to be b/c I had D.Murray in all 3 cash LUs.  Mostly scores in the 135-150 range, but nothing great.  One lineup with 135 and Hopkins still to go tonight. 

I had a whole lot of Mccoy, Ingram, a little less of Rob Kelley (who apparently got vultured four times by Cousins, Thompson and Mack Brown??), and a sprinkle of Dion Lewis and Blount. My best roster this week, and season had 217 pts.

Wilson

McCoy

Ingram

Hopkins

Wilson

Meredith

Gates

Lewis

Pats D

I had Aj Green in a lot of lineups so I subbed him put with Hopkins in most. Oh well... not enough of Jordy Nelson

 

 

 

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Best score was 203.38 in a $1 double up. I spread my money around with various LU but wish I'd had this one a lot more. I could have much more but it wasn't a total loss for the week. I think I only lost a few dollars and finished 4th in my league which is better than 9th or worse the last few weeks

Rodgers

Howad, McCoy

Jordy, Lee, Meredith

V Davis

Ware

Patriots

 

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Had one of my best weekends:

Wilson / Howard-D.Murray / Nelson-Crabtree-Hopkins / Brate / Ingram / Patriots scored 175.6 and netted me $62.75

Rodgers / Howard-Murray / Nelson-Crabtree-Fitzgerald / Davis / Ingram / Chargers scored 165.08 and netted me $8.50

Had one dud lineup with Brees but only had that in a $3, $1 and .25 contest so no big loss. I'll take it.

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