Megla

Fan Duel Week 16

52 posts in this topic

Because the slates are all over the place this week rather than look at games individually I will review by position this week.

 

QBs

Cash- If you are going to pay up at QB this week in cash I only see 5 real options

Brees- I’d rank him #1, at home in a dome and all of his weapons are healthy.

Brady- NE is almost a 17 point favorite in this game.  I really worry about this game scripting out to the Blount show or even worse a Garoppolo show late if the game gets out of hand.

Ryan- I would put him at #2A, the only concern I have with him is the weather in Carolina.  Getting JJ back and having both Freeman and Coleman there and the emergence of Gabriel means he has a ton of weapons.

Luck- I put him at #2B, should be good weather in LA, if Moncreif is back then I like Luck even more against a suspect Oak pass Def.

Carr- At home against a bad Indy pass defense.  What makes this game likeable is that both teams are fighting to win a playoff spot so this should bring out the best in them.

 

RBs

McCoy- The Dolphins aren’t terrible against the run and I don’t like Gillespie stealing GL carries but this is still a good match up.

Blount- I see him getting 25+ touches in this game and I believe this Jets team is about to give up.  If the weather is cold and or windy then I give Blount another bump up.

Freeman- I still worry about Coleman stealing touches but this is too good a matchup to pass on.

J. Stewart- I loved the way he ran the ball the other night and ATL can be run on.  This is a interdivisional game so Carolina would like nothing more than to hurt ATl’s playoff chances.

Gordon- If he returns he has a great match up against Clev

LMurray- Indy has been susceptible to the run all year.

Gurley- Yea I said it!  I know he is somewhat limited due to his limited role in the passing game but this is SF and they give up a ton on the ground

DMartin- If this stays close and doesn’t turn into a shootout I like Martin in this situation.  TB looks to control the TOP keeping Brees off the field, it’s a fast track indoors so no weather concerns.

LBell-Not sure how I feel about this match up, I know I will use him in some GPPs but I may fade him cash wise.

Elliot- He will get a ton of touches and his ownership is sure to be 50% +  

 

WRs/TEs/K and Def to come later

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Anyone going to stomach the Jets Def ($3K) to save some cash for other positions in any GPPs?

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2 hours ago, Megla said:

Because the slates are all over the place this week rather than look at games individually I will review by position this week.

 

QBs

Cash- If you are going to pay up at QB this week in cash I only see 5 real options

Brees- I’d rank him #1, at home in a dome and all of his weapons are healthy.

Brady- NE is almost a 17 point favorite in this game.  I really worry about this game scripting out to the Blount show or even worse a Garoppolo show late if the game gets out of hand.

Ryan- I would put him at #2A, the only concern I have with him is the weather in Carolina.  Getting JJ back and having both Freeman and Coleman there and the emergence of Gabriel means he has a ton of weapons.

Luck- I put him at #2B, should be good weather in LA, if Moncreif is back then I like Luck even more against a suspect Oak pass Def.

Carr- At home against a bad Indy pass defense.  What makes this game likeable is that both teams are fighting to win a playoff spot so this should bring out the best in them.

 

RBs

McCoy- The Dolphins aren’t terrible against the run and I don’t like Gillespie stealing GL carries but this is still a good match up.

Blount- I see him getting 25+ touches in this game and I believe this Jets team is about to give up.  If the weather is cold and or windy then I give Blount another bump up.

Freeman- I still worry about Coleman stealing touches but this is too good a matchup to pass on.

J. Stewart- I loved the way he ran the ball the other night and ATL can be run on.  This is a interdivisional game so Carolina would like nothing more than to hurt ATl’s playoff chances.

Gordon- If he returns he has a great match up against Clev

LMurray- Indy has been susceptible to the run all year.

Gurley- Yea I said it!  I know he is somewhat limited due to his limited role in the passing game but this is SF and they give up a ton on the ground

DMartin- If this stays close and doesn’t turn into a shootout I like Martin in this situation.  TB looks to control the TOP keeping Brees off the field, it’s a fast track indoors so no weather concerns.

LBell-Not sure how I feel about this match up, I know I will use him in some GPPs but I may fade him cash wise.

Elliot- He will get a ton of touches and his ownership is sure to be 50% +  

 

WRs/TEs/K and Def to come later

You didn't mention him, but Howard is becoming one of my favorites for the week.  Washington has been terrible lately, and he is at home.  He has been a top 5 back on FD for the last 5 weeks and is priced as RB10 this week. 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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17 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

You didn't mention him, but Howard is becoming one of my favorites for the week.  Washington has been terrible lately, and he is at home.  He has been a top 5 back on FD for the last 5 weeks and is priced as RB10 this week. 

I didn't list him or DJ for cash this week, but I do like Howard as a GPP option.

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Initial takes on cash game lineups for Saturday:

1. Brate, Gostkowski and the Pats likely to be popular. 

2. Looks like a lot of value in the $6,200 to $7,800 range at WR. Should be able to make it work to fit in 3 guys in that range. (Crabtree, Nelson, Hilton, Fitzgerald, Edelman, Thomas, Cooks) Maybe it's more of a GPP move, but Lockett at $4,700 is intriguing even in cash. You can fit in two nice RBs and a top QB just by going down to Lockett at WR3 and he's been hot lately. 

3. Biggest decision is probably quarterback. If you feel comfortable with somebody like Bortles, Bradford or Barkley in the $6k range, you can really load up everywhere else on the roster. If you pay up for Brees, Rodgers or somebody like that, you can still put together a nice lineup but you're definitely taking some hits elsewhere.

4. Seems like a lot of RBs to like, but none to love this week. DJ, McCoy, Howard, and DeMarco Murray all stand out as decent options. GPP only, but Dion Lewis ($5,100) looked really good last week and it seems like pass-heavy with Lewis is the best way to attack the Jets.

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Main Slate cash first run through...

Luck (may go Ryan)

Johnson

Kelley

Jordy

Hilton

Crabtree (could go M. Thomas if I use Ryan and move off NE D to someone like GB)

Brate 

Lutz

NE

 

Edited by Galileo

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How are you guys approaching the slates this week?  A lot of different options with the Saturday/Sunday games.  Might mess around some with late 4PM with the Bucs/Saints Saturday at 425 PM, and AB from Ravens/Steelers Sunday.  More to think about with the Thu-Mon slate vs Main than a normal week.  

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54 minutes ago, lmack said:

How are you guys approaching the slates this week?  A lot of different options with the Saturday/Sunday games.  Might mess around some with late 4PM with the Bucs/Saints Saturday at 425 PM, and AB from Ravens/Steelers Sunday.  More to think about with the Thu-Mon slate vs Main than a normal week.  

I took a hour or so and look at the games in each slate and then wrote out what contests I wanted to get into in each.

Thurs-Mon

$10 worth of DBL ups and $10 worth of 50/50s, $20 bucks worth of GPPs and $20 worth of 100 player leagues

Thur-Sat morning

$20 worth of GPPs and $20 worth of 100 PL

Main

$30 DBL ups, $50 50/50s, $40 worth of GPPs and $40 worth of 100 PL

Sat 1pm

$20 GPPs, $20 100 PL

Sat-Sun

$20 GPPs, $15 100 PL

Sat 4pm

$10 GPP, $10 100 PL

Sat 4pm late

$10 GPP, $10 100 PL

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22 hours ago, RG623 said:

Thoughts on Powell for cash if Forte is out?

I would never play anyone in cash from a team with a projected total of 13'. Powell isn't even a bargain at $6,500. For $100 less you can get J. Stewart at home against a team that RB's have done well against last 5 weeks.

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Thur-Mon Cash LUs

Ryan/Bell/Ware/Jordy/DThomas/Crab/Brate/Gostk/NE

Luck/Howard/Ware/AB/Jordy/DThomas/Brate/Gostk/NE

GPPs/100 PL

Brady/Bell/Howard/MMitchell/Lockett/MThom/Olsen/Succop/NE

Rogers/DJ/Waare/ODB/Crab/Tate/Brate/Agyo/NE

Eli/Howard/Stewart/ODB/MTHom/TY/Benn/Lutz/NYG

Brees/DJ/Freem/MThom/TYWill/MLee/Brate/Lutz/Tenn

Brees/Gurley/Howard/Cooks/AB/Edel/JJames/Boswell/Seat

 

Good luck tonight

 

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Any thoughts on Ware this weekend, at home against Denver?  He keeps popping up on the IVC, but I'm reluctant to click his name.  I'm more tempted by Bilal Powell at the same price point ($6500), even in a potentially apocalyptic game script at Foxboro.

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Four games off the main slate is really messing with my head when it comes to putting together my Thu-Lu lineup.  I am usually a 1 lineup on thu-mon guy, and I couldnt decide if I wanted ODB or AB as my "spend up" receiver.  It pushed me to make a no-stud RB LU that can fit them both: 

Drew Brees
Jordan Howard
LeGarrette Blount
Antonio Brown
Odell Beckham Jr
Tyler Lockett
Cameron Brate
Robert Aguayo 
New England Patriots

 

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My GPPs tonight

Brees, Johnson, Bell, Meredith, Tate, Edelmen, Brate, Gost, KC

Cousins, Howard, Elliot, Brown, Crabtree, DJackson, Brate, Lambo, NE

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On 12/21/2016 at 9:52 AM, Megla said:

RBs

McCoy- The Dolphins aren’t terrible against the run and I don’t like Gillespie stealing GL carries but this is still a good match up.

According to Hribar's worksheet, the Dolphins have given up a league-high 5.4 yards per carry since their bye.

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For GPP's I'm really liking a Big Ben - Brown stack. It's been awhile since these two hooked up for a solid game and they are playing at home. Last game was ugly between these two which means this game will be the total opposite, lol.

Gpp - Big Ben / McCoy - Ware / Brown - Green - Meredith / Gates / Sturgis / Pats D

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Gates?  Should I?  I have been playing this guy for the past few weeks thinking he's cheap and they are going to get him that TD record before watching him ride off into the sunset.  Needless to say he's been poop...only 2 freakin targets?  against Oakland??  Really?

Can I go there again?  Is it just foolish now?  Still tempting me though...Browns are all around crap and TEs have been a problem...well everything has been a problem.  Is this the week they get Gates his?  It is sort of a pseudo-homecoming for Gates having spent a couple years at nearby Kent State.  Great story in the making or just more fantasy heartache as I watch Henry catch another TD?

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1 hour ago, Galileo said:

Gates?  Should I?  I have been playing this guy for the past few weeks thinking he's cheap and they are going to get him that TD record before watching him ride off into the sunset.  Needless to say he's been poop...only 2 freakin targets?  against Oakland??  Really?

Can I go there again?  Is it just foolish now?  Still tempting me though...Browns are all around crap and TEs have been a problem...well everything has been a problem.  Is this the week they get Gates his?  It is sort of a pseudo-homecoming for Gates having spent a couple years at nearby Kent State.  Great story in the making or just more fantasy heartache as I watch Henry catch another TD?

I am with you.  I have been playing narrative street and started this combo too many times over the last several weeks thinking that Rivers will get his boy that record.  I think I am done, but the atrocious Clev D vs. the TEs is what had me all over Clay last week.  If I was doing several gpps, I would probably throw one more out there, but if only doing a couple, I would be looking elsewhere for TE. 

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6 hours ago, Church of Iggy Pop said:

Any thoughts on Ware this weekend, at home against Denver?  He keeps popping up on the IVC, but I'm reluctant to click his name.  I'm more tempted by Bilal Powell at the same price point ($6500), even in a potentially apocalyptic game script at Foxboro.

I like Powell a bit more on DK or other full ppr sites.  Doesn't have much TD upside with that team total either.  I personally would rather look at Montgomery or Stewart in that price range on FD, but I am Pats homer, so take that for what it's worth. 

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god i wish i had the balls to go gurley/howard in cash games...

instead i find myself groupthinking my way into shady.  for some reason just dont love it though the dolphins have been bottom 3rd vs rb last 10 weeks and are also bottom 3rd vs the run dvoa.  idk just not feeling it.  im sure ill be quoting this post tomorrow night when gurley and howard go for 40 combined and the guys i chose got 30 combined for twice as much.

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6 hours ago, sooted72 said:

god i wish i had the balls to go gurley/howard in cash games...

instead i find myself groupthinking my way into shady.  for some reason just dont love it though the dolphins have been bottom 3rd vs rb last 10 weeks and are also bottom 3rd vs the run dvoa.  idk just not feeling it.  im sure ill be quoting this post tomorrow night when gurley and howard go for 40 combined and the guys i chose got 30 combined for twice as much.

Go for it, follow your gut.  I'm rolling with Howard & Blount in cash.  Leaves me enough for Brees/TY/Julio.  Had Brees/Cooks stack in my head all week, but you never know who the NO WR of the week is going to be, so would rather notch down my RB's and take better WR's.  Will find out soon enough.

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2 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

Go for it, follow your gut.  I'm rolling with Howard & Blount in cash.  Leaves me enough for Brees/TY/Julio.  Had Brees/Cooks stack in my head all week, but you never know who the NO WR of the week is going to be, so would rather notch down my RB's and take better WR's.  Will find out soon enough.

Completely agree - am running out Howard/Gurley in a cash L/U myself. And every time I toss in Cooks in a QB/WR stack w/ Brees, it's been Thomas or Snead that went off while Cooks did jack; burned by him to many times. 

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Two cash L/U's for Saturday Main:

#1 - QB - Ryan, RB - D. Johnson & R. Kelley, WR - Nelson/Baldwin/Crabtree, TE - Olsen, K - Aguayo, DEF - NE.

#2 - QB - Brees, RB - Gurley & Howard, WR - Nelson/Baldwin/Garcon, TE - Walker, K - Lutz, DEF - LA

Sat/Sun cash L/U:

QB - Ryan, RB - McCoy & Kelley, WR - A. Brown/D. Thomas/Crabtree, TE - Olsen, K - Lambo, DEF - GB

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11 hours ago, sooted72 said:

god i wish i had the balls to go gurley/howard in cash games...

This is what I finally settled on for cash this week. 1st time is weeks I haven't either DJ or Bell (or both) in my cash lineup.

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Drew Brees Andrew Luck
LeSean McCoy Jordan Howard
Rob Kelley David Johnson
Brandin Cooks T.Y. Hilton
Julian Edelman Michael Thomas
Michael Crabtree Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen Cameron Brate
Stephen Gostkowski Roberto Aguayo
New England Patriots New England Patriots

Here's what I'm looking at for the main slate.  

Edited by lmack

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What are peoples thoughts on multi-entrying the same lineup in the BIG multiplier contests?  I see people do it all the time but I'm not sure if I've read an analysis on whether or not it's considered good practice. 

I would like a little more 3x exposure, preferably at the $2 level, but the offering of $2 3x's is so small.  

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32 minutes ago, lmack said:
Drew Brees Andrew Luck
LeSean McCoy Jordan Howard
Rob Kelley David Johnson
Brandin Cooks T.Y. Hilton
Julian Edelman Michael Thomas
Michael Crabtree Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen Cameron Brate
Stephen Gostkowski Roberto Aguayo
New England Patriots New England Patriots

Here's what I'm looking at for the main slate.  

Shifting off Olsen to 100% Brate.  Allows me to upgrade Edelman to Jordy in the LU on the left.  Swapping M. Thomas for Edelman on the right to keep my exposure.

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11 minutes ago, lmack said:

Shifting off Olsen to 100% Brate.  Allows me to upgrade Edelman to Jordy in the LU on the left.  Swapping M. Thomas for Edelman on the right to keep my exposure.

Olsen not playing?

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38 minutes ago, lmack said:

What are peoples thoughts on multi-entrying the same lineup in the BIG multiplier contests?  I see people do it all the time but I'm not sure if I've read an analysis on whether or not it's considered good practice. 

I would like a little more 3x exposure, preferably at the $2 level, but the offering of $2 3x's is so small.  

I don't put enough money in play each week to enter a contest more than once but if I did I'd roll out different lineups.

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46 minutes ago, Mojo56 said:

This is what I finally settled on for cash this week. 1st time is weeks I haven't either DJ or Bell (or both) in my cash lineup.

I can understand not wanting to start D.J. this week; SEA's run defense is pretty darn good. But I still think he'll hit cash game value based on game script & passing usage.

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40 minutes ago, lmack said:

What are peoples thoughts on multi-entrying the same lineup in the BIG multiplier contests?  I see people do it all the time but I'm not sure if I've read an analysis on whether or not it's considered good practice. 

i think its totally fine but i only do it when theres not enough other contests.  for example in nhl sometimes i cant even come up with a couple hundred bucks worth of low buyin 50/50s and double ups so ill throw my lineup in the big $2 double up 25x.

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1 minute ago, reel_smooth said:

I can understand not wanting to start D.J. this week; SEA's run defense is pretty darn good. But I still think he'll hit cash game value based on game script & passing usage.

i feel the same way.  no dj in cash but im only playing 1 lineup.

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main cash

brees l murray Kelly julio Jordy cooper brate zuerline packers

carr gurley howard ty adams inman olsen jankowski pats

luck shady freeman crab djax Thomas brate lutz rams

sat-sun cam shady ware brown cooks adams davis lambo pats

$5 se gpp

brees dj howard ty m Thomas crab cjf gost pats

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27 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Olsen not playing?

Nope, was more about wanting to get Jordy in than a statement on Olsen

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Hey guys, Uzomah is a decent GPP option with Eifert and AJ both out tonight.  He's only $4,500 and probably low ownership in GPPs.

Plus, gives me a reason to watch the game tonight :).  Putting him in a few cash LU's as well.

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12 minutes ago, lmack said:

Nope, was more about wanting to get Jordy in than a statement on Olsen

Good.  My one $1 gpp entry this week:

Ryan

DJ/Howard

Julio/Adams/Lockett

Olsen

Gost

Buffalo

 

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15 minutes ago, AquaBliss said:

Hey guys, Uzomah is a decent GPP option with Eifert and AJ both out tonight.  He's only $4,500 and probably low ownership in GPPs.

Plus, gives me a reason to watch the game tonight :).  Putting him in a few cash LU's as well.

Pretty sure that A.J. is gonna be active.

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Packers 3 & out 1st drive; only 5th time all season no points on the opening drive; hope that's not how the rest of the game goes; got decent exposure to Jordy and a little to Montgomery [GPP].

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Just saw that - thought they were talking yesterday that he was practically full strength. Oh well ................  

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