KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 17

27 posts in this topic

Surprised there are no week 17 threads for either site yet.  Still looking over things, but I assume this all begins and ends with us keeping up with news about how teams are handling the games.   Start with who has something to play for and what teams will still be actually playing.  To start off (and correct me if I am wrong about the playoff scenarios):

Atlanta/NO:  Atlanta can a bye, so they will be playing.  I also don't see Brees and Co. not coming to play.  I am sure this game will be popular.

GB/Det:  Of course this one is for the division, and based on how Rodgers has been playing we should be looking at him and his WRs. 

Wash/NYG: Wash is in with a win (and GB/Det doesn't end in a tie).  I have heard that the Giants might be resting a lot of people, especially on D, so this might be a great spot for Cousins and Co.

Seattle could be playing for the bye as well, but it is against SF, so not sure how hard they have to play.  Definitely keep an eye on the RB news on the Seattle side. 

 

As far as the AFC, I am not sure where to go.  The teams are set, just the seeding needs to be determined.  Miami doesn't have a ton to play for, as they can't get above the 5 seed, but I am sure NE is going for homefield throughout.  Trouble is, do get the win, I could see them spreading it out even more than usual to preserve guys a little and minimize the injury risk.   KC and Oak will be playing for the first round bye as well, but the trouble is Oak is on their b/u QB who is going to Denver.  I am sure Denver would love to beat the crap out of them and play spoiler.  I heard that Pitts is leaning towards resting studs, as they are stuck in that #3 spot. 

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Just checked and was surprised the DFS page doesn't have anything yet...definitely an interesting week.

As the OP noted, I'm going to try and keep it to the NFC as much as possible this weekend. 

The other thing I wanna try to get a handle on is the RB situation. There's a lot of cheap options that may get the start with great matchups. Jaquizz against NO? Alex Collins against SF? Will it be DeAngelo or Fitzgerald Toussaint who gets to feast on Cleveland?

I really like ARod this week but with his matchup and big game last week, I think his ownership percentage will be insanely high.

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3 hours ago, Skoo said:

Just checked and was surprised the DFS page doesn't have anything yet...definitely an interesting week.

As the OP noted, I'm going to try and keep it to the NFC as much as possible this weekend. 

The other thing I wanna try to get a handle on is the RB situation. There's a lot of cheap options that may get the start with great matchups. Jaquizz against NO? Alex Collins against SF? Will it be DeAngelo or Fitzgerald Toussaint who gets to feast on Cleveland?

I really like ARod this week but with his matchup and big game last week, I think his ownership percentage will be insanely high.

I was looking at these, and even mentioned Collins, but what gives me pause is that we have seen JAGs do nothing vs. these Ds over the last couple weeks even though on paper they should be RB sieves.  DWill would be a slam dunk, but he hasn't seen football action in a long time, so that's a risk as well. 

TB plays Car, too. 

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Is it worth even opening a 'Fanduel' thread at this point? Doesn't seem like a lot of interest at this point for week 17, although, I will give you that all the action isn't until Sunday. Anyway, the IVC is now up for the Fanduel side of things at least, and it looks like an absolute mess. Not much love for RB's this week ......... or so it seems to me. Outside of DJ, they don't appear to expect much from anyone else. 

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Steve Smith a must play in both cash and gpp? Last game, needing about 230 yards  to pass Tim Brown and Baltimore out of contention. Could be a Kobe like last game where the offense is going to be funneled through him?

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53 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Is it worth even opening a 'Fanduel' thread at this point? Doesn't seem like a lot of interest at this point for week 17, although, I will give you that all the action isn't until Sunday. Anyway, the IVC is now up for the Fanduel side of things at least, and it looks like an absolute mess. Not much love for RB's this week ......... or so it seems to me. Outside of DJ, they don't appear to expect much from anyone else. 

There is just a lot of stuff up in the air with the rbs as far as people getting rest for the playoffs, etc.  I could also see older guys on teams that aren't in it not doing as much either - ie D.Murray. 

I thought one of the podcasts that I was listening to said they liked week 17.  I wonder if that's b/c they think people maybe aren't paying as much attention and might play guys like Bell or Zeke not realizing they might not get through the whole game?

 

Anyway, as far as RBs, I think I am mainly going for DJ and Freeman.  Az hasn't been in contention for a bit and DJ seems to be just fine.  He is also on a streak and could get some records, so I could see them still running with him.  I saw mention of the Atl rbs somewhere that said as a general rule, Coleman is the away RB and Freeman is the home RB to play.  The IVC seems to like Sproles a lot as a cheap RB flex as well. 

I am thinking about going bottom basement D in hopes of getting some horrible backup play from guys like L.Jones and Manuel.  Cleveland and NYJ are dirt cheap and allows you a little wiggle room to upgrade a little elsewhere.  I am currently looking at something like this for a LU:

Smith - DJ/Freeman - Nelson/S.Smith/E.Rogers - Kelce - Sproles - Clev

Also staring at one with a start of Rodgers - DJ/Freeman - Nelson/E.Rogers - Kelce  but for that to happen, I will have to find a player or two in the 3000s to squeeze in there as well. 

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29 minutes ago, RG623 said:

Steve Smith a must play in both cash and gpp? Last game, needing about 230 yards  to pass Tim Brown and Baltimore out of contention. Could be a Kobe like last game where the offense is going to be funneled through him?

Do we say the same for Gates?  But KC is really hard on TEs as well. 

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On 12/28/2016 at 11:19 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Do we say the same for Gates?  But KC is really hard on TEs as well. 

Gates has said he isn't sure about retirement now. Who knows. 

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On 12/28/2016 at 11:18 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Anyway, as far as RBs, I think I am mainly going for DJ and Freeman.  Az hasn't been in contention for a bit and DJ seems to be just fine.  He is also on a streak and could get some records, so I could see them still running with him.  I saw mention of the Atl rbs somewhere that said as a general rule, Coleman is the away RB and Freeman is the home RB to play.  The IVC seems to like Sproles a lot as a cheap RB flex as well. 

I am thinking about going bottom basement D in hopes of getting some horrible backup play from guys like L.Jones and Manuel.  Cleveland and NYJ are dirt cheap and allows you a little wiggle room to upgrade a little elsewhere.  I am currently looking at something like this for a LU:

Smith - DJ/Freeman - Nelson/S.Smith/E.Rogers - Kelce - Sproles - Clev

Also staring at one with a start of Rodgers - DJ/Freeman - Nelson/E.Rogers - Kelce  but for that to happen, I will have to find a player or two in the 3000s to squeeze in there as well. 

Definitely doing massive exposure to DJ/Freeman. I think I actually have a line-up in FD that looks nearly identical to the Rodgers line-up you list. Having said that, I also like the idea of pivoting to Coleman. He tore up NO pretty good the first time around and there could be plenty of points to go around in the Falcons backfield this week.

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This is obviously a really weird week and there is going to be a little bit more randomness (at least more than usual), but I feel like if you do the research you can get a leg up.

A few players caught my eye so far:

1) Shaun Draughn @ $3200 - obviously the match-up stinks but this is a pure volume play at that price. The only offensive players in this game are Kerley, Kaepernick, and Draughn.

2) Paul Perkins @ $3400 - the Giants have nothing to play for so they may rest Jennings a bit and get Perkins for more work... could be another volume play similar to Draughn but with a much better match-up.

3) Terrelle Pryor @ $4200 - normally I wouldn't look at this against the Steelers defense but this is a meaningless game for both teams and Hue Jackson wants Pryor to get 1000 yards on the season. The only problem is RG3 may play at QB, and Pryor is much better with Kessler at the helm.

Edited by pbandy1

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On 12/28/2016 at 10:18 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Also staring at one with a start of Rodgers - DJ/Freeman - Nelson/E.Rogers - Kelce  but for that to happen, I will have to find a player or two in the 3000s to squeeze in there as well. 

 

6 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Definitely doing massive exposure to DJ/Freeman. I think I actually have a line-up in FD that looks nearly identical to the Rodgers line-up you list. Having said that, I also like the idea of pivoting to Coleman. He tore up NO pretty good the first time around and there could be plenty of points to go around in the Falcons backfield this week.

 

Rodgers - DJ/Coleman - Nelson/Rogers/Kearse - Kelce - Doyle - ARZ  $100 left.

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11 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Definitely doing massive exposure to DJ/Freeman. I think I actually have a line-up in FD that looks nearly identical to the Rodgers line-up you list. Having said that, I also like the idea of pivoting to Coleman. He tore up NO pretty good the first time around and there could be plenty of points to go around in the Falcons backfield this week.

I need to look at stats and see if there is something to the playing Freeman at home, Coleman on the road thing.  Last game was at NO, and Coleman had a good game.... 

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Still can't figure out if Jordan Reed is playing tomorrow or not.  Has been listed as questionable all week, but says he's feeling better than ever, and Gruden said he will decide on Saturday but I can't find any info.

Hopefully can find out tomorrow morning.  I think he's the best TE option if he's active.  Anyone hear anything further?

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This was my run yesterday morning, would love some exposure to the Steelers RB of choice but depending what you read it could be either one.

Stafford - DJ/Hillman - Gates/Fitzgerald/E.Rogers - Kelce - Ware - Cardinals

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, I got Williams in a few GPP's - may have to cut that back to one.

The two cash L/U's I'm settling on [in FD, by the way, FWIW]: #1 / QB - Rodgers, RB - Freeman/Sproles, WR - J. Nelson/Edelman/M. Thomas, TE - Kelce, K - Santos, DEF - NE

                                                                                                 #2 / QB - Wilson, RB - DJ/J. Rodgers, WR - J. Nelson/Baldwin/Edelman, TE - Kelce, K - Aguayo, DEF - TB

 

Thoughts welcome, as always. 

Edited by reel_smooth

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12 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Yeah, I got Williams in a few GPP's - may have to cut that back to one.

The two cash L/U's I'm settling on [in FD, by the way, FWIW]: #1 / QB - Rodgers, RB - Freeman/Sproles, WR - J. Nelson/Edelman/M. Thomas, TE - Kelce, K - Santos, DEF - NE

                                                                                                 #2 / QB - Wilson, RB - DJ/J. Rodgers, WR - J. Nelson/Baldwin/Edelman, TE - Kelce, K - Aguayo, DEF - TB

 

Thoughts welcome, as always. 

I'm not really on Edelman this week. He has 2 touchdowns on 146 targets. With as much value as there is out there, I'd want a guy with more TD equity. His typical 7 catch, 75 yard game only gets you 11 points if he doesn't score. He'll get his targets obviously, just doesn't do a whole lot with them in FD scoring (less than 1 FD point per target this season). 

I don't hate the Sproles play, but I am not as optimistic on him as I was early in the week. They'll want to see what the rookie Marshall has and they could split carries/touches pretty evenly. 

I like everything else. 

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Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this but...

I have 2 open spots for an all day tournament. Would anyone be interested in playing? The field isn't that experienced. 12 player $20 buyin.

  

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1 hour ago, Dan Hindery said:

I'm not really on Edelman this week. He has 2 touchdowns on 146 targets. With as much value as there is out there, I'd want a guy with more TD equity. His typical 7 catch, 75 yard game only gets you 11 points if he doesn't score. He'll get his targets obviously, just doesn't do a whole lot with them in FD scoring (less than 1 FD point per target this season). 

I don't hate the Sproles play, but I am not as optimistic on him as I was early in the week. They'll want to see what the rookie Marshall has and they could split carries/touches pretty evenly. 

I like everything else. 

How about #2, pivoting to Graham at TE, dropping Edelman & Baldwin; add Evans & Meredith? Would look like this: Wilson - DJ / J. Rodgers, Evans / Nelson / Meredith, Graham, Aguayo, TB?

I know what you're saying about Edelman - I just think that NE is going to be b**ls to the wall & he could get 15 points on receptions & yards alone. I'd use Brady for cash if he were under 9K. And I also think that Doug Pederson wants the 'W' more than to see what Marshall has - I think Sproles still gets the bulk of the work, so, I guess I'd keep those two in one cash L/U at least. 

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Had a little Edelman, but not enough and I could have sworn I had Burkhead in a gpp or two, but I guess not. 

Hopefully my cash LU will get me through.  I had McKinnon at the flex instead of Sproles, so that worked.  I was hoping for a bit more out of J.Rodgers though.  Got 60 or so points from my scrubs, so hopefully my studs will get me into a winning week.  I have Ryan/DJ/Nelson/Kelce to go. 

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Just can't catch a break - have a real solid line-up of Alex Smith - Burkhead/McKinnon - Julio Jones/Edelman/Cam Meredith - Graham - Cardinals D... and David Johnson :wall:

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Posted (edited)

22 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

Just can't catch a break - have a real solid line-up of Alex Smith - Burkhead/McKinnon - Julio Jones/Edelman/Cam Meredith - Graham - Cardinals D... and David Johnson :wall:

OF COURSE!!  The week where 1/2 the studs sit, McCoy and DJ (I had both in one LU) exit with injuries. 

Not to mention the chalk of all chalk at TE Mr. Kelce having a dud week. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

OF COURSE!!  The week where 1/2 the studs sit, McCoy and DJ (I had both in one LU) exit with injuries. 

Not to mention the chalk of all chalk at TE Mr. Kelce having a dud week. 

I didn't even know about the McCoy injury - that is brutal. I had DJ in about 95% of line-ups. This is where I just hate daily fantasy.

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Posted (edited)

13 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

I didn't even know about the McCoy injury - that is brutal. I had DJ in about 95% of line-ups. This is where I just hate daily fantasy.

Yeah, McCoy left after getting about 3 pts. 

This is the balance I haven't seemed to fully strike (if people really do - I know this is all a gamble).  Early in the year I will be all in on a player or two and try to make the hard decision, and it usually results in an injury or dud.  Then I get gun shy, spread out the players, and don't hit quite as much when players I liked were going off. 

At least this was a weird week and maybe might have lower cash lines.  DJ is about 35-40% owned in the contests I scanned and Kelce 50%, so that helps. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Also, so much for the Washington players having a cake day vs. NYG backups and the narratives for S.Smith's last game..

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54 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also, so much for the Washington players having a cake day vs. NYG backups and the narratives for S.Smith's last game..

yeah... had a bunch of Rob Kelley but once I read that Giants weren't resting their starters, just didn't make sense to play him. I think I have him in a few line-ups that were garbage anyways.

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Well, by far my worst week of the year.  Looking to be a 95% loss of what I put in for the week.  No way I was going to survive DJ's injury and Kelce's dud week.  Now Nelson is just piling it on and making it a near complete sweep of players I was confident about and doing squat. 

I will probably be suckered into a little action next couple weeks, but will really scale it back since I can't remember ever being successful at small slate contests of any sort. 

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Well, by far my worst week of the year.  Looking to be a 95% loss of what I put in for the week.  No way I was going to survive DJ's injury and Kelce's dud week.  Now Nelson is just piling it on and making it a near complete sweep of players I was confident about and doing squat. 

I will probably be suckered into a little action next couple weeks, but will really scale it back since I can't remember ever being successful at small slate contests of any sort. 

:goodposting: 

Word for word, this matches my Week 17 experience.  I should have just stayed away.
I managed to advance two survivor entries, so I will be forced to keep riding this train for at least one more week.

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