JohnnyU

Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo

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Brady reworked his deal recently to minimize his financial outlay due to his suspension. His base salary this year and next year is only $1 million each year. He's signed for 2018 and 2019 for $14 million a year (with a $22 million a year cap charge). The franchise tag number for QB next year should be roughly $21.5 million.

If the Patriots have aspirations to keep both guys for 2018, the most likely outcome is they would tag JG and keep TB12. But that would end up costing them $35+ million in real dollars and $43+ million in a salary cap hit to keep both QBs.

As I mentioned earlier somewhere, when have the Pats been known to allocate that much at a position? If JG really is "all that," then it would make the most sense to keep him and move Brady, but BB and the Pats brass would be crucified by the fan base for getting rid of the most popular player in team history.

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It really is a brutal choice if they like JG.  But if Favre can be cut for the unproven Rodgers, Manning can be let go to land Luck and Montana can be sent packing to make room for Young you can't say Brady won't end up somewhere else.

I think people are probably underestimating the market for Garoppolo too though.  Very limited sample size, but his initial impact is much better than anything guys like Osweiler or Bradford have ever done.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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If McDaniels leaves to be a HC, IMO there would be a pretty decent chance he would want JG (and he would do pretty well staying in the same system). Of course, that would depend on which team it was. For example, if it were the Rams, they could not realistically give up on Goff given the capital they burned to get him.

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17 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

There are like 10 teams that have somewhat of a need at QB: BUF, NYJ, CLE, HOU, DEN, CHI, SFO, JAX, SDC, ARI, NOS. The point being, a third of the league needs long or short term QB help, and all it takes is one team to pony up the picks. 

Curious how SDC and NO make this list?

Rivers isn't that old, and if his age is the reason, then NYG and PIT belong too, as their QBs are from the same draft class.  Granted Brees is older, but still playing at a high level, and if he's old enough for the team to need a backup plan, ten surely NEP is in the same boat?

I will be very surprised if either of those two make a significant QB move.  

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16 hours ago, Thunderlips said:

Is there anyone here arguing that JG is worth a 1+ that ISN'T a Pats fan?

I'm a Pats fan and there's no way he's worth a first round pick.  No chance.

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Just now, Arodin said:

Curious how SDC and NO make this list?

Rivers isn't that old, and if his age is the reason, then NYG and PIT belong too, as their QBs are from the same draft class.  Granted Brees is older, but still playing at a high level, and if he's old enough for the team to need a backup plan, ten surely NEP is in the same boat?

I will be very surprised if either of those two make a significant QB move.  

SD allegedly was looking to move Rivers last year. In looking at his contract, the Chargers are probably stuck with him. He has a no trade clause now and is signed through 2019. 
The Saints at one point had a crazy annual cap number for Brees. I don't remember how they fixed that, but like Brady is getting along in years.
As for your point, I suppose yes, teams with QBs in their late 30's at some point in the near future will have to worry about bringing in another QB.

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8 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

I'm a Pats fan and there's no way he's worth a first round pick.  No chance.

Based on the NFL draft teams seem to have settled on two firsts + other stuff as the cost of a top QB prospect.  Garoppolo is easily worth a first at this point.

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41 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Fair points but nothing is ever guaranteed, certainly not 15 years of success from Garoppolo.  Few teams hit on consecutive QBs; Montana/Young, Favre/Rodgers.  Other extreme is a franchise can languish for decades without the right QB.  Personally, I haven't been happy since Marino.  One would think NE offers a better environment for success than the more dysfunctional franchises.

I think Brady is still at a high level; they expect him to stay there for a bit (agree that no one beats father time); and they believe his ability to run their offense proficiently will continue even with some loss of physical skills (based on intellect, familiarity, etc.).  Moving Garropolo could even be the best thing for Garropolo himself.

That being said, I've long wondered if Brady will ever get the treatment some of the other vets have gotten over the years.  Montana, Favre, and even Manning all felt they had more to give when their teams thought it was time to move on.

They may or may not see Garropolo as a franchise guy.  I think the whole thing depends more on Brady's ability and the timing of contractual obligations.

 

Good thoughts

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15 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

It really is a brutal choice if they like JG.  But if Favre can be cut for the unproven Rodgers, Manning can be let go to land Luck and Montana can be sent packing to make room for Young you can't say Brady won't end up somewhere else.

I think people are probably underestimating the market for Garoppolo too though.  Very limited sample size, but his initial impact is much better than anything guys like Osweiler or Bradford have ever done.

As I remember it, Favre retired and the Packers moved on to Rodgers. Favre then wanted to unretire around training camp and ultimately got traded to the Jets. That situation was more similar to the Brady/Garopollo one (moving on to an unproven commodity).

Young filled in for almost 2 years when Montana was hurt. He went 14-2 in Montana's last season, leading to Montana's trade to KC. Young certainly had proven himself when the Niners opted to keep him over Montana.

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10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As I remember it, Favre retired and the Packers moved on to Rodgers. Favre then wanted to unretire around training camp and ultimately got traded to the Jets. That situation was more similar to the Brady/Garopollo one (moving on to an unproven commodity).

Young filled in for almost 2 years when Montana was hurt. He went 14-2 in Montana's last season, leading to Montana's trade to KC. Young certainly had proven himself when the Niners opted to keep him over Montana.

Didn't he retire in the first place b/c the Packers were going to start Rodgers?  Not sure about that, but it's what I thought I remembered.

Regardless, if you've got a QB you think is a strong long-term it's really tough to let them go.

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34 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Based on the NFL draft teams seem to have settled on two firsts + other stuff as the cost of a top QB prospect.  Garoppolo is easily worth a first at this point.

Teams have been trading multiple 1sts to move up in the draft for decades. 

This never translates into player trades. Deals for veteran QBs are never for the same price as rookies with 5 year deals attached. 

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Worth it. He's shown his ability. You can draft a crap shoot or trade those picks for a commodity. I don't know if he'll be great - depends what team gets him, and what coaches he has and a myriad of other factors. But face value I think he's worth a 1st and a 4th

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17 hours ago, Thunderlips said:

Is there anyone here arguing that JG is worth a 1+ that ISN'T a Pats fan?

A lot of pundits had him as a late first round pick in his draft class. He ended up going in the second. Now he has shown some success at the NFL level. I can see a team paying a late first for him. Is he worse than Paxton Lynch?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

A lot of pundits had him as a late first round pick in his draft class. He ended up going in the second. Now he has shown some success at the NFL level. I can see a team paying a late first for him. Is he worse than Paxton Lynch?

Come on....two games.  Let's not throw the word "success" around too loosely here.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Based on the NFL draft teams seem to have settled on two firsts + other stuff as the cost of a top QB prospect.  Garoppolo is easily worth a first at this point.

Meh.

For whatever reason, the NFL has always valued player development over actual players.  

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5 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Come on....two games.  Let's not throw the word "success" around too loosely here.

 

 

 Certainly more successful in the starting role than the quarterback in Los Angeles. 

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Remember when leading up to the draft a few years ago when "sources said" Mallett was going to be traded to the Texans for the 1st overall? Then a 3rd? And then nothing? IIRC, Rappaport, Peter King and some others were the big cheerleaders at the time saying Mallett was highly coveted by both the Patriots and other teams so any trade compensation would be high. :rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Certainly more successful in the starting role than the quarterback in Los Angeles. 

By that rationale......he's been more successful than RGIII in CLE...I'm sure they'd be willing to give up 1.1 for him.  Right?

 

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12 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Come on....two games.  Let's not throw the word "success" around too loosely here.

 

 

the word"some" was in there as well. He looked very good against two tough defenses and it was with Gronk out and Edelman banged up. 

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2 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Remember when leading up to the draft a few years ago when "sources said" Mallett was going to be traded to the Texans for the 1st overall? Then a 3rd? And then nothing? IIRC, Rappaport, Peter King and some others were the big cheerleaders at the time saying Mallett was highly coveted by both the Patriots and other teams so any trade compensation would be high. :rolleyes:

I think what you'll end up seeing is JG and the Pats 1 involved in a move for a higher 1 with (depending on the formula) other picks moving in either direction......

That being said, it'll complicate things if:

1) McDaniel goes to another team that needs a QB. This will further complicate things if McDaniels new team needs a QB and he DOESN'T make a strong push for JG. Than I have to imagine JG's trade value will fall thru the floor.

2) CLE and their multitude of picks; particularly the Eagles 1st round pick.  CLE isn't moving 1.1 in a NE trade unless they are absolutely blown away.  If Philly ends up giving them a top ten pick.....they have enough holes (and enough later draft picks) to draft a BPA with the PHI pick and then play the trade game to move up/down later in the draft to get a QB they like.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

the word"some" was in there as well. He looked very good against two tough defenses and it was with Gronk out and Edelman banged up. 

Come on.  Next you're going to tell me when he goes to Disney...Mickey Mouse wears his ears on his head.  Kids got talent....lets not get all Sam Horn about him just quite yet. 

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As I remember it, Favre retired and the Packers moved on to Rodgers. Favre then wanted to unretire around training camp and ultimately got traded to the Jets. That situation was more similar to the Brady/Garopollo one (moving on to an unproven commodity).



Young filled in for almost 2 years when Montana was hurt. He went 14-2 in Montana's last season, leading to Montana's trade to KC. Young certainly had proven himself when the Niners opted to keep him over Montana.


The news wire at KFFL shows how things transpired with Favre:

March 4, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre has decided to retire.

March 6, 2008: During a press conference Thursday, March 6, Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre, with a tear rolling down his cheek, officially announced his retirement.

April 3, 2008: Sam Farmer, of the Los Angeles Times, reports retired QB Brett Favre (Packers) may be considering a comeback with another team. According to NFL sources, Favre's agent has quietly inquired with teams about their interest in trading for Favre.

April 4, 2008: Peter King, of SportsIllustrated.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) said he is not considering coming out of retirement. "That's the last thing I'm thinking about," Favre told SI.com. "I have no idea where that came from, but it certainly didn't come from me. I'm happy about my decision and I haven't once said, 'I wonder if I made the wrong decision.' I know it's the right one."

July 2, 2008: Chris Mortensen, of ESPN.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) appears to have the desire to return to the NFL and play for the Green Bay Packers this season, according to sources close to the Packers and Favre.

July 2, 2008: Updating a previous report, Jason Wilde, of the Wisconsin State Journal, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) contacted the Packers in the past few weeks about returning but the team made it clear they have moved on and Favre asked for his release from the team. The Packers denied the request.

July 22, 2008: Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports the Green Bay Packers have spoken with several teams about possibly trading QB Brett Favre, including an NFC team. It is uncertain how many teams are interested.

(over the next 3 weeks there was a bunch of drama, with Favre asking to be released, the Packers denying his request, then Favre threatening to come to camp, then the Packers calling his bluff and saying that he'd be welcome to re-join the team as Rodgers' backup, etc., etc.)

August 6, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports the New York Jets acquired Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre Wednesday, Aug. 6. The exact compensation of the deal is not known, but it is believed to be a single draft pick that could increase in value based on the Jets' performance in the 2008 season.

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33 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Come on.  Next you're going to tell me when he goes to Disney...Mickey Mouse wears his ears on his head.  Kids got talent....lets not get all Sam Horn about him just quite yet. 

You're overstating things a bit here.  Nobody is going that extreme. 

Jimmy looked like an nfl starting quarterback for two games, until he got injured.  That's something - maybe not much, and a pending franchise tag or expensive contact might mean more. 

Personally I'm signing Mike Glennon if I need a starting qb and don't want to draft one. 

 

Edited by FUBAR
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12 hours ago, Jercules said:

Peyton Manning showed 0 signs of slipping in his second-to-last year? You obviously didn't have him in fantasy. 

Really? Peyton played 17 years. In 2014, he had these stats:

66.2% completion percentage - Right about average, actually 0.9% over his career average

4727 yards - 2nd best yardage in his career

39 TDs - 3rd best TDs in his career

15 INTs - 7th best INTs in his career (better INT% than his career average)

Fantasy wise, that was his 3rd best year of his career, so outside of his 2 record breaking TD seasons of 49 and 55, this was as good as you got for his career. If Peyton's 3rd best fantasy year in his 17 years was signs of slipping then your expectations were way too high. That is normal regression after a record breaking year, not slipping. He slipped in 2015.

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1 hour ago, Thunderlips said:

Come on.  Next you're going to tell me when he goes to Disney...Mickey Mouse wears his ears on his head.  Kids got talent....lets not get all Sam Horn about him just quite yet. 

what?

 

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1 hour ago, Joe Summer said:


The news wire at KFFL shows how things transpired with Favre:

March 4, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre has decided to retire.

March 6, 2008: During a press conference Thursday, March 6, Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre, with a tear rolling down his cheek, officially announced his retirement.

April 3, 2008: Sam Farmer, of the Los Angeles Times, reports retired QB Brett Favre (Packers) may be considering a comeback with another team. According to NFL sources, Favre's agent has quietly inquired with teams about their interest in trading for Favre.

April 4, 2008: Peter King, of SportsIllustrated.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) said he is not considering coming out of retirement. "That's the last thing I'm thinking about," Favre told SI.com. "I have no idea where that came from, but it certainly didn't come from me. I'm happy about my decision and I haven't once said, 'I wonder if I made the wrong decision.' I know it's the right one."

July 2, 2008: Chris Mortensen, of ESPN.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) appears to have the desire to return to the NFL and play for the Green Bay Packers this season, according to sources close to the Packers and Favre.

July 2, 2008: Updating a previous report, Jason Wilde, of the Wisconsin State Journal, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) contacted the Packers in the past few weeks about returning but the team made it clear they have moved on and Favre asked for his release from the team. The Packers denied the request.

July 22, 2008: Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports the Green Bay Packers have spoken with several teams about possibly trading QB Brett Favre, including an NFC team. It is uncertain how many teams are interested.

(over the next 3 weeks there was a bunch of drama, with Favre asking to be released, the Packers denying his request, then Favre threatening to come to camp, then the Packers calling his bluff and saying that he'd be welcome to re-join the team as Rodgers' backup, etc., etc.)

August 6, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports the New York Jets acquired Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre Wednesday, Aug. 6. The exact compensation of the deal is not known, but it is believed to be a single draft pick that could increase in value based on the Jets' performance in the 2008 season.

And if memory serves the "thinking about retirement through the off season" dance was performed to perfection by Favre at least the year prior if not the two years prior

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2 hours ago, Thunderlips said:

By that rationale......he's been more successful than RGIII in CLE...I'm sure they'd be willing to give up 1.1 for him.  Right?

 

Only if they want to win. 

RGIII sucks and is fragile as hell. CLE would be smart to make that deal, then send RGIII to some team desperate for a QB while he still has any perceived value. 

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And if memory serves the "thinking about retirement through the off season" dance was performed to perfection by Favre at least the year prior if not the two years prior


Favre did that EVERY YEAR from at least 1997 onwards. He just didn't want to go to training camp. But in 2008 he actually had a press conference and said he was retiring for real. At that point, the Packers moved on and handed the reins to Rodgers. I think that Favre had hoped that either A) the Packers would beg him to come back, or B the Packers would relinquish his rights, which would allow him to sign with another team in the fall. I don't think he expected the Packers to give the job to Rodgers AND hold on to Favre's rights.

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9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

This is where the argument falls apart. NE does not know this, even if they might think so.

 

History and Brady's age simply is not on their side. Those are facts that they do indeed know.  And if they believe Garoppolo truly is a future star then they will be in the Favre/Rodgers position, and knowing how NE has dealt with vets in the past as it pertains to their own self interest they would be choosing Garoppolo over Brady.  It gives them another decade and a half of stability at the position and they can burn their picks continuing to maintain the level of excellence that the franchise currently has.  You don't sell that out to make a 40 yr old QB feel better as he goes to pasture.

 

But if they really are willing to deal Garoppolo right now, the reason they are doing it is because they don't see him as a franchise guy.  

Its all goo BB, I believe the team feels strongly it is much more likely than not (barring catastrophic inj) brady plays at a high level for at least a couple more years. You believe he has to fall apart next year because of his age and I concede u could certainly be right. However Brady is a freak when it comes to taking care of his body so i see little reason he can't keep it up a while longer. 

Ftr1, I know how they have dealt with most vets in the past, but there are exceptions and Brady will likely be one of them. Having said that I wouldn't rule out the possibility that at age 43, 44 Brady wants to continue playing and NE feels they have better options, but thats 2-3 years away.

Ftr2, Again if they felt certain that Jimmah would be a star the next 10 - 15 years they would keep him, but I don't think they feel that strongly about it and logic says they will take what they can get for him (which will likely be at least a late 1 in imho).

Ftr3, It has nothing to do with making brady feel better (I dont know where u r getting that from) and has everything to do with knowing their best chance to win another championship in the next 2-3 years is with brady starting. Do u think a team like denver would give a 1st for brady next year? I do, in a heartbeat. 

Only time will tell so no sense beating our heads over it and I think we reached the point where we agree to disagree.. I think Jimmah is as good as gone and Brady starts and plays well for NE for at least the next couple few years.

We shall see

 

Edited by NE_REVIVAL

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13 minutes ago, massraider said:

Is Matt Barkley worth a 1st and a 4th?

The guy that had 9 turnovers in his last two starts?

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8 minutes ago, massraider said:

Is Matt Barkley worth a 1st and a 4th?

Not sure if ur asking me, but I would say A. as of now probably not and B. not really relevant to jimmahs current trade value discussion imho

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He had two good games.  Plus some good game experience. Yeah, probably two 1's.  

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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

He had two good games.  Plus some good game experience. Yeah, probably two 1's.  

Lets not forget that time Brady got benched the year the Pats werent good anymore against the Chiefs. Jimmy came in against a suffocating Chiefs D and drove down the field and scored with no problem.

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2 minutes ago, massraider said:

He had two good games.  Plus some good game experience. Yeah, probably two 1's.  

I know you're either fishing or trying (poorly) to make a point but how many times has Barkley looked terrible out on the field, so his two "good" games look more like outliers - especially when they were followed up by two games where he threw 8 interceptions and lost a fumble.

I get that Garropolo is not exactly proven - but once again he was considered a pretty good prospect to begin with and has (in a very small sample size) looked the part. I don't think ultimately that a team will trade a first for him, but I wouldn't think it was a bad move if they did. If he went in the late first (as predicted) in his draft would people think it was a bad pick? I'd take him over Paxton Lynch who went in the late first just last season.

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Gosh, he must be better than Brady then.

The sample size is laughably small.  There is a much bigger sample size of backups to Brady proving they aren't worth more than a 4th, but this guy is totally worth it? 

Hey, I'm not arguing someone won't offer up that price. Just remember these same people were saying the same things here about Mallet a few years ago.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I know you're either fishing or trying (poorly) to make a point but how many times has Barkley looked terrible out on the field, so his two "good" games look more like outliers - especially when they were followed up by two games where he threw 8 interceptions and lost a fumble.

I get that Garropolo is not exactly proven - but once again he was considered a pretty good prospect to begin with and has (in a very small sample size) looked the part. I don't think ultimately that a team will trade a first for him, but I wouldn't think it was a bad move if they did. If he went in the late first (as predicted) in his draft would people think it was a bad pick? I'd take him over Paxton Lynch who went in the late first just last season.

He was not considered a consensus first rounder in that draft. At all.

Matt Barkley was rated much higher before his final season, and was talked about as 1st overall.

That and 2.75 gets you on the subway.

Jimmy's draft scouting reports that we read on the internet really aren't relevant anymore, to my mind. We have no idea what teams really thought about him, and why his price would go UP based on two games is a mystery to me.

Bring groomed in NE has been proven, PROVEN, to not matter one bit, no?

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Just a question for all who doubt JG is worth a first, let's assume you are a GM and need a young qb to groom going forward? Do you draft one, who and in what round?

Personally I think JG is as good as gone because cheap Krafty Bob isn't going to shell out the money it would take to keep him and Brady even if it wouldn't kill their cap. I'd be shocked if he didn't bring them first round type compensation ( a first, two seconds etc.) as the kid has as much upside as any young unproven qb  coming out of college, cost less $$ and has the one thing so many people overlook: marketability. He's the good looking,  well spoken,all American guy with the million $ smile who would be a perfect player for a team to have as the face of their franchise. If you don't think teams covet this you're naïve.

 

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11 minutes ago, massraider said:

He was not considered a consensus first rounder in that draft. At all.

Matt Barkley was rated much higher before his final season, and was talked about as 1st overall.

That and 2.75 gets you on the subway.

Jimmy's draft scouting reports that we read on the internet really aren't relevant anymore, to my mind. We have no idea what teams really thought about him, and why his price would go UP based on two games is a mystery to me.

Bring groomed in NE has been proven, PROVEN, to not matter one bit, no?

He was a late first / early second in most mocks (and ended up being a late second). It doesn't earn him anything at this point, but it's a puzzle piece in the evaluation of what his value is now. Being groomed in NE has had mixed results, but how is that relevant? My evaluation is based on how he's looked in preseason games and more importantly regular season games.

Matt Cassell gets a lot of grief but he actually led KC to the playoffs and was a Pro-Bowler one season there. That deal wasn't a total disaster for them. On top of that Cassell was an undrafted QB that looked good (but not great) throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker in what was a record setting offense the year before. Garroplo's supporting cast was far less impressive with Gronk out injured and Edelman not up to speed. And Mallet never looked good in NE except for maybe one preseason game - people made the connection to Houston because of O'Brien -- and of course the results were far different.

Take a look at the late first and second round QBs taken the last five years and let me know how much better any of them are than Garropolo. Only Carr stands out. If there was a possibility for the Jets to acquire him, I'd be in favor of them giving an early second to test him out (not that that would ever happen).

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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30 minutes ago, massraider said:

He had two good games.  Plus some good game experience. Yeah, probably two 1's.  

Candy arm.  Also lots of bad games.  Also already been cut once.  Major prospect from major program that went in 4th round.

You're comparing apples and carburetors.

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