2017 dynasty buy lows (1 Viewer)

Not looking for guys that are likely FA's, but guys that range from probably rostered all the way up to the big names. Throw out some names with notes.

Rivers - he's getting old, but I think he could pull a Matt Ryan in 2017. That offense is going to be very good next year. I'm hoping they invest in OL and bring in someone like Ellington to fill the Woodhead role.

ARob - I like him better than Hopkins. He's a year younger and has much more big play potential. His drop off this year is obviously concerning, but if the price is right, I'd love to grab him.

Hurns - I believe in his talent and so do the Jags with that contract extension they gave him before the season.

Moncrief - I need to do some research on his injuries to see if I'm going to deem him injury prone or if they were fluky injuries, but that will just affect the price I'm willing to pay. Would like to acquire him either way.

Decker - injuries and QB situation will make him dirt cheap, but he'll only be 30 next year. Should have a few good years left.

Maclin - only 29 next year and should still get 120+ targets

John Brown - if he can get his sickle cell under control, he could thrive with Floyd gone (would be best to grab Jaron Brown, too, as insurance)

Lockett - low production + gruesome injury, but I believe in the talent

Josh Gordon - just kidding

Kevin White - Alshon probably gone, maybe owner has soured on him after 2 years of nothing

Floyd - should be super cheap, but maybe the Pats can rehab him and he finds a decent landing spot in free agency; only 27

Torrey - might get released, but still has ability, just needs a good fit; only 28

Doug Martin - should have 3 game suspension left next year, but only 28 and a decent talent

Abdullah - looked good to start this year, but early injury means he'll be cheap

Dion Lewis - Brady will be dinking and dunking like crazy at age 40

Nice list. The issue with Arob is more than Bortles. And his past stats were inflated by the garbage time effect. My issue with him is more his ability to mail in a season from week 4. How can you trust a guy like that ever again? I'm sure I'm in the minority and if you can get him cheap WR3 then okay sure. Otherwise I'm willing to wait to avoid relying on him as something important on my squad.

Gandalf said:

Nice list. The issue with Arob is more than Bortles. And his past stats were inflated by the garbage time effect. My issue with him is more his ability to mail in a season from week 4. How can you trust a guy like that ever again? I'm sure I'm in the minority and if you can get him cheap WR3 then okay sure. Otherwise I'm willing to wait to avoid relying on him as something important on my squad.

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Eh, sure he had some garbage stats, but he only had 35 targets last year while "trailing big" according to FBG splits. Compare that to Hopkins last year who had 65 targets and that doesn't seem so bad. In 2015, AB had 15, Julio had 35, and OBJ had 24 targets in the same situation, so 35 may be a tad high, but it's not astronomical like Hopkins. As for him quitting after week 4, I don't have him on a single team this year so I haven't watched closely enough to notice that. I'm hoping a new coaching staff can rectify that offense. I'm not expecting a return to 2015 numbers (my thought before this season was that 2015 is a career high for him), but I think 80/1200/8 is achievable. 

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Oh, I should add, if anyone has seen any of these players involved in trades recently, please post them.

FF Ninja said:

Not looking for guys that are likely FA's, but guys that range from probably rostered all the way up to the big names. Throw out some names with notes.

Rivers - he's getting old, but I think he could pull a Matt Ryan in 2017. That offense is going to be very good next year. I'm hoping they invest in OL and bring in someone like Ellington to fill the Woodhead role.

ARob - I like him better than Hopkins. He's a year younger and has much more big play potential. His drop off this year is obviously concerning, but if the price is right, I'd love to grab him.

Hurns - I believe in his talent and so do the Jags with that contract extension they gave him before the season.

Moncrief - I need to do some research on his injuries to see if I'm going to deem him injury prone or if they were fluky injuries, but that will just affect the price I'm willing to pay. Would like to acquire him either way.

Decker - injuries and QB situation will make him dirt cheap, but he'll only be 30 next year. Should have a few good years left.

Maclin - only 29 next year and should still get 120+ targets

John Brown - if he can get his sickle cell under control, he could thrive with Floyd gone (would be best to grab Jaron Brown, too, as insurance)

Lockett - low production + gruesome injury, but I believe in the talent

Josh Gordon - just kidding

Kevin White - Alshon probably gone, maybe owner has soured on him after 2 years of nothing

Floyd - should be super cheap, but maybe the Pats can rehab him and he finds a decent landing spot in free agency; only 27

Torrey - might get released, but still has ability, just needs a good fit; only 28

Doug Martin - should have 3 game suspension left next year, but only 28 and a decent talent

Abdullah - looked good to start this year, but early injury means he'll be cheap

Dion Lewis - Brady will be dinking and dunking like crazy at age 40

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Just because something is on sale, doesn't mean you are getting a good deal. I wouldn't even want to waste the roster spot of the guys I bolded. Decker really makes me worried too since he might not be ready for the start of 2017 as he had shoulder and hip surgery. 

Ilov80s said:

Just because something is on sale, doesn't mean you are getting a good deal. I wouldn't even want to waste the roster spot of the guys I bolded. Decker really makes me worried too since he might not be ready for the start of 2017 as he had shoulder and hip surgery. 

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I guess it depends how many roster spots one has. How many are in your leagues? I made this list with 25-30 spots x 12 teams in mind, in which case, you'd be crazy to not roster those guys. I think all of them you bolded have top 24 positional fantasy potential. Like if Detroit doesn't re-sign Riddick, Abdullah has top 12 potential. Kevin White has quite a range, but top 12 is within reason.

FF Ninja said:

Eh, sure he had some garbage stats, but he only had 35 targets last year while "trailing big" according to FBG splits. Compare that to Hopkins last year who had 65 targets and that doesn't seem so bad. In 2015, AB had 15, Julio had 35, and OBJ had 24 targets in the same situation, so 35 may be a tad high, but it's not astronomical like Hopkins. As for him quitting after week 4, I don't have him on a single team this year so I haven't watched closely enough to notice that. I'm hoping a new coaching staff can rectify that offense. I'm not expecting a return to 2015 numbers (my thought before this season was that 2015 is a career high for him), but I think 80/1200/8 is achievable. 

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Oh, I should add, if anyone has seen any of these players involved in trades recently, please post them.

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By far my overwhelming reason for avoiding Arob is the whole disappearing act he pulled this year. I can't remember a WR1 who wasn't injured ever doing that. And the problem with Arob is he still has name value. But just imagine how low he value plummets if he starts the year with 2-3 games of nothing. Don't value him more than a WR3 with upside (your estimates), in my opinion.

I would add:

DeAndre Hopkins: has all the same pros and cons as ARob

CJ Anderson- another injury plagued year, owners that have really had high hopes and planned to rely on him for the last two years got burned. No other Bronco back did anything to impress in Anderson's absence and I would expect CJ to be the lead back coming into the 2018 season. I wouldn't go crazy spending on him as we know the injury concerns, but Elway is a smart GM and I like the chances he gets the offensive line improved in the offseason.

Eddie Lacy- last 2 seasons seemed to have take the luster off his name. He's still only 25, playing on a top level offense and while he disappointed for fantasy, he averaged 5.1 ypc in 2016. 

Maclin- a disaster of a year and on a bad offense, but this year was so far out of his typical NFL production that at 28, I can give him a pass. 

FF Ninja said:

I guess it depends how many roster spots one has. How many are in your leagues? I made this list with 25-30 spots x 12 teams in mind, in which case, you'd be crazy to not roster those guys. I think all of them you bolded have top 24 positional fantasy potential. Like if Detroit doesn't re-sign Riddick, Abdullah has top 12 potential. Kevin White has quite a range, but top 12 is within reason.

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Sure, roster size is key here. All the guys should be rostered in all dynasty leagues. I'd prefer some of them be rostered by other owners. If I owned any of those guys, I wouldn't be cutting them. I just don't think I would be pursuing them in trades either. Riddick just signed a 3 year deal in 2016. Alshon is going to leave and Kevin White still won't be the best WR on the team. Maybe he gets there some day, but Kevin White is an athlete and not a WR. I have almost no interest in him. 

Gandalf said:

By far my overwhelming reason for avoiding Arob is the whole disappearing act he pulled this year. I can't remember a WR1 who wasn't injured ever doing that. And the problem with Arob is he still has name value. But just imagine how low he value plummets if he starts the year with 2-3 games of nothing. Don't value him more than a WR3 with upside (your estimates), in my opinion.

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We can start with DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall this year. Both were were worse than ARob. 

FF Ninja said:

I guess it depends how many roster spots one has. How many are in your leagues? I made this list with 25-30 spots x 12 teams in mind, in which case, you'd be crazy to not roster those guys. I think all of them you bolded have top 24 positional fantasy potential. Like if Detroit doesn't re-sign Riddick, Abdullah has top 12 potential. Kevin White has quite a range, but top 12 is within reason.

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Nice list overall.  

Very speculative value for both Abdullah and White, I think.

The next time Abdullah rushes for 80 yards in a game will be his first. I don't see Riddick going away, either.  He also has not been used in goal line situations, so scoring is limited for him. 

Depending on the asking price, I might let someone else chase the potential of Kevin White.  Cameron Meredith showed WR1 potential in this offense, and he may come cheaper. Who will be under center for the Bears in 2017?

Sammy Watkins has shown flashes of greatness, and a coaching change could benefit him. Mostly, he just needs to get on the field consistently  

I like the calls of John Brown and Eric Decker. 

Gandalf said:

Nice list. The issue with Arob is more than Bortles. And his past stats were inflated by the garbage time effect. My issue with him is more his ability to mail in a season from week 4. How can you trust a guy like that ever again? I'm sure I'm in the minority and if you can get him cheap WR3 then okay sure. Otherwise I'm willing to wait to avoid relying on him as something important on my squad.

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Funny, I was just about to add Bortles.  He's gotta be fairly cheap. 

No idea what he's going for but it might be the best time to buy girly. 

Gandalf said:

By far my overwhelming reason for avoiding Arob is the whole disappearing act he pulled this year. I can't remember a WR1 who wasn't injured ever doing that. And the problem with Arob is he still has name value. But just imagine how low he value plummets if he starts the year with 2-3 games of nothing. Don't value him more than a WR3 with upside (your estimates), in my opinion.

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Yeah, I wasn't going to target him hard where I'd pay whatever it took, but I'm willing to take a gamble on him if the price is right.

Ilov80s said:

I would add:

DeAndre Hopkins: has all the same pros and cons as ARob

CJ Anderson- another injury plagued year, owners that have really had high hopes and planned to rely on him for the last two years got burned. No other Bronco back did anything to impress in Anderson's absence and I would expect CJ to be the lead back coming into the 2018 season. I wouldn't go crazy spending on him as we know the injury concerns, but Elway is a smart GM and I like the chances he gets the offensive line improved in the offseason.

Eddie Lacy- last 2 seasons seemed to have take the luster off his name. He's still only 25, playing on a top level offense and while he disappointed for fantasy, he averaged 5.1 ypc in 2016. 

Maclin- a disaster of a year and on a bad offense, but this year was so far out of his typical NFL production that at 28, I can give him a pass. 

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Eh, Hopkins was never as good as advertised. As I mentioned to Gandalf, his 2015 was propped up by a ridiculous amount of garbage time. He's also not nearly as explosive as ARob.

I fully agree with CJA rebounding in 2017 (I think he's top 12 if healthy, even with a crap QB), but I feel like his dynasty value has been rising as Booker has failed miserably in his place. To begin 2016 people were under the impression Booker was breathing down his neck and might replace him in 2017. Now that they've realized CJA is legit, his dynasty rankings have been pretty high for a guy that got injured (there's always the what have you done for me lately effect, even with dynasty rankings).

Lacy was on a great offense, but couldn't stay in shape. He's probably going to a worse offense, maybe even RBBC, and still has the weight red flag.

Maclin was on my list, so I agree.

Ilov80s said:

Sure, roster size is key here. All the guys should be rostered in all dynasty leagues. I'd prefer some of them be rostered by other owners. If I owned any of those guys, I wouldn't be cutting them. I just don't think I would be pursuing them in trades either. Riddick just signed a 3 year deal in 2016. Alshon is going to leave and Kevin White still won't be the best WR on the team. Maybe he gets there some day, but Kevin White is an athlete and not a WR. I have almost no interest in him. 

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Crap. Rotoworld needs to update their Riddick contract link! It's showing 2017 free agent. Good catch! But are you trying to tell me you are a Cameron Meredith believer? I don't think any of these guys are locks to succeed, but neither are draft picks. People highly value draft picks, but they don't realize how low the odds are of success. If you can grab any of the guys listed for a 3rd, your odds just got better than if you stuck with the draft. Compare those guys to the guys going in the 25+ range of rookie drafts. They are all shots in the dark. I'd rather have John Brown/Hurns/Abdullah than any of them.

Gandalf said:

By far my overwhelming reason for avoiding Arob is the whole disappearing act he pulled this year. I can't remember a WR1 who wasn't injured ever doing that. And the problem with Arob is he still has name value. But just imagine how low he value plummets if he starts the year with 2-3 games of nothing. Don't value him more than a WR3 with upside, in my opinion.

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I suspect ARob is still fetching top dollar. I would not be willing to invest heavily in him following a dismal 2016 season. I just cannot imagine ARob dynasty owners are yet abandoning him, so they are probably just holding. 

Alshon was also a disappointment this season. If you believe in his talent (I do), perhaps you can get him at a discount and hope he lands in a WR-friendly offense. 

I like what I've seen of Meredith more than I have of White. If Meredith is a buy low, then buy. The only thing keeping Meredith off of the radar as a potential dynasty star is name value. Remove the name and just look at measurables and stats. Yet people will still have White, Kelvin, Treadwell, etc ahead of him. 

Ilov80s said:

We can start with DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall this year. Both were were worse than ARob. 

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Okay Brandon Marshall is getting old and was not a WR1 in my rankings this year.

Will give you Hopkins but I feel like his situation was terrible and he didn't quit. Arob got outplayed all year by Marqise Lee...

...Marqise Lee. 

I would trade a 3rd rounder for any of those guys, but who would be dumb enough to trade a player with an NFL track record of success for a 3rd round dynasty pick? 

Ilov80s said:

I like what I've seen of Meredith more than I have of White. If Meredith is a buy low, then buy. The only thing keeping Meredith off of the radar as a potential dynasty star is name value. Remove the name and just look at measurables and stats. Yet people will still have White, Kelvin, Treadwell, etc ahead of him. 

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I like Meredith.  He went through a down period after hurting his shoulder mid season. I think he can be had relatively cheap (WR3) and there is upside there for sure.

Ilov80s said:

I would trade a 3rd rounder for any of those guys, but who would be dumb enough to trade a player with an NFL track record of success for a 3rd round dynasty pick? 

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Wait 3rd round rookie pick or overall?

Gandalf said:

Okay Brandon Marshall is getting old and was not a WR1 in my rankings this year.

Will give you Hopkins but I feel like his situation was terrible and he didn't quit. Arob got outplayed all year by Marqise Lee.

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Easy to say Marshall is getting old and wasn't ranked as WR1 by you. However, he was a consensus WR1 by ADP and in 2015 was as productive as any WR not named Antonio Brown. I get your point though as the other names that come to mind (Braylon, Bowe, Lloyd ) don't leave a good taste in your mouth. 

Gandalf said:

Wait 3rd round rookie pick or overall?

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3rd round rookie dynasty pick.

This is an excellent idea for a thread and a nice list to boot; however I cannot tell you how frustrated I get hearing people talk about "buy lows" with absolutely no mention of acquisition cost included.  Yet it happens all the time, and this is not in any way directed at FF Ninja.  What I would love to see in this thread is something like this:

ARob - I like him better than Hopkins. He's a year younger and has much more big play potential. His drop off this year is obviously concerning, but if the price is right, I'd love to grab him. If you can buy him for Pick 1.06 or lower you should.

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That's just an example.  I would just like a barometer if I'm going to "go shopping".

Ilov80s said:

I would trade a 3rd rounder for any of those guys, but who would be dumb enough to trade a player with an NFL track record of success for a 3rd round dynasty pick? 

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And yet I bet you I could not get a 3rd round dynasty pick for Andy Dalton right now in my start 1 QB dynasty rebuild.  I'll let you know as I'm trying.  Your remark is sound in theory but not in practice.

socrates said:

Nice list overall.  

Very speculative value for both Abdullah and White, I think.

The next time Abdullah rushes for 80 yards in a game will be his first. I don't see Riddick going away, either.  He also has not been used in goal line situations, so scoring is limited for him. 

Depending on the asking price, I might let someone else chase the potential of Kevin White.  Cameron Meredith showed WR1 potential in this offense, and he may come cheaper. Who will be under center for the Bears in 2017?

Sammy Watkins has shown flashes of greatness, and a coaching change could benefit him. Mostly, he just needs to get on the field consistently  

I like the calls of John Brown and Eric Decker. 

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Oh yeah, most of the guys I listed were speculative buys... but if you take into account the speculative value of the rookies you'd get with those pics, the odds are in your favor with the veterans, IMO. Not only that, but these guys present 2017 potential, whereas most of the rookies drafted past the top 15, are stashes and longshots. 

As for Riddick, the guy has a career ypc of 3.5 and despite playing in 54 games, he's never bested 70 yards. So sure, his presence hurts Abdullah's targets, but Abdullah is young and I'm a believer in his talent. I think he's a better version of Gio. If he can prove himself in these next 2 years, he could find a nice job in free agency. I think right now is his lowest value.

Ilov80s said:

I would trade a 3rd rounder for any of those guys, but who would be dumb enough to trade a player with an NFL track record of success for a 3rd round dynasty pick? 

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People get crazy at three times: after combine, after NFL draft, during league's rookie draft.

Braktastic said:

This is an excellent idea for a thread and a nice list to boot; however I cannot tell you how frustrated I get hearing people talk about "buy lows" with absolutely no mention of acquisition cost included.  Yet it happens all the time, and this is not in any way directed at FF Ninja.  What I would love to see in this thread is something like this:

That's just an example.  I would just like a barometer if I'm going to "go shopping".

And yet I bet you I could not get a 3rd round dynasty pick for Andy Dalton right now in my start 1 QB dynasty rebuild.  I'll let you know as I'm trying.  Your remark is sound in theory but not in practice.

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I hear ya, but the problem is that everyone has a subjective value associated with draft picks and different settings (# teams, # of roster spots) greatly affects draft pick value. In a league with 20 roster spots, a 3rd round pick has almost no value because that player should not be one of your top 20 players, but in a league with 30 spots, it has much more perceived value. Also, I was hoping to get some feedback from people who have the players or who have seen them traded, because I recognize their value is deflated at this point, but I don't know precisely how low owners are on these players.

As for Dalton, the problem is that it is a start 1 league, I'm assuming 12 teams, so everybody probably has 2 options. However, if I only had like Brady and Palmer as my QBs, I'd probably give you a 3rd for Dalton. He's 30 years old and probably not going to crack the top 12 in any given season, but he's good depth if Brady falls off that cliff... But if no one in your league is in a bind like that, then of course you're not going to get a 3rd for him. You can usually get a QB stash in the 3rd if you've got two decent veterans with a few year left. Bottomline, QB is a whole different animal than WR/RB/TE. 

But if it helps, most of these guys are players I'd target with picks beyond the top 18. ARob and Moncrief are the two key exceptions and I haven't formulated my max offering for either of them yet.

FF Ninja said:

But if it helps, most of these guys are players I'd target with picks beyond the top 18. ARob and Moncrief are the two key exceptions and I haven't formulated my max offering for either of them yet.

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Thanks for your thoughts on subjective values.  The above does help too for a barometer.

Braktastic said:

And yet I bet you I could not get a 3rd round dynasty pick for Andy Dalton right now in my start 1 QB dynasty rebuild.  I'll let you know as I'm trying.  Your remark is sound in theory but not in practice.

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I think that 1st round picks have the most value right after the combine, and right after the NFL draft.  

Those 3rd rounders for Dalton deals, those happen during the rookie draft, IMO.  That's been my experience.  I let it be known that I am looking to move my pick, and in that late 2nd/early 3rd round, there is always a DeAndre Washington, or Keith Marshall that people get hot for.  

Ilov80s said:

I like what I've seen of Meredith more than I have of White. If Meredith is a buy low, then buy. The only thing keeping Meredith off of the radar as a potential dynasty star is name value. Remove the name and just look at measurables and stats. Yet people will still have White, Kelvin, Treadwell, etc ahead of him. 

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The OP could add Randall Cobb to his list...  I'm not thrilled about Cobb or most of the list with the exception of Moncrief, maybe Arob, and Lewis in a PPR format. 

Your point is more in line with my thinking as I read the list - mostly guys approaching 30 and some with a significant injury history.  Why not go young as is the case with Meredith?  Jeffrey could be gone and, although White is also a younger player, he has had two major leg injuries and is still green at the position.

massraider said:

I think that 1st round picks have the most value right after the combine, and right after the NFL draft.  

Those 3rd rounders for Dalton deals, those happen during the rookie draft, IMO.  That's been my experience.  I let it be known that I am looking to move my pick, and in that late 2nd/early 3rd round, there is always a DeAndre Washington, or Keith Marshall that people get hot for.  

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Sure, but that's assuming you place some value on Dalton and would trade the pick for him.  You're right that the later picks have more value on the clock as players fall and the trader knows who they're getting with the acquired pick.

FUBAR said:

Sure, but that's assuming you place some value on Dalton and would trade the pick for him. 

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Well, you wouldn't have a debate over whether or not you can get Dalton for a 3rd if you don't value him for that.  If you don't, OK.

Nice topic!

RB

Gurley - New coach coming. Improved QB play next year. They should draft some more help offensively.

Hyde - Got hurt but he looks good. If the offense improves and he can stay healthy he should be a RB1 easy next year.

Ware- Nice 1500 yards from scrimmage season. Under the radar a bit because he didn't score much.

WR

Cooper- One of the best WR in the NFL. Not sure why Carr doesn't target him more but I love the talent. He's 23.

Maclin- He just couldn't stay healthy this year. He's always been underrated. He could be cut or traded. Tyreek Hill hurts his upside in this offense but I bet you could get him for next to nothing.

Lockett- If you believe he is going to have a 100% recovery then I'd try and get him cheap now. He's already shown what he can do and he could be Seattle's #1 WR for 4-5 years with Wilson throwing to him. Top 5 WR in FF potential.

Doctson - Was hurt all year. He's going to be 25 but I like the talent.

.

If there are owners in your league that value Moncrief like a high end WR2 or low end WR1 I would sell him quickly for that. He's never going to be Indy's #1. That spot belongs to T.Y. and he isn't going anywhere. I'm not saying Moncrief has no value because the offense he's on is nice but he's way overvalued right now it seems.

.

Milkman said:

If there are owners in your league that value Moncrief like a high end WR2 or low end WR1 I would sell him quickly for that. He's never going to be Indy's #1. That spot belongs to T.Y. and he isn't going anywhere. I'm not saying Moncrief has no value because the offense he's on is nice but he's way overvalued right now it seems.

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The more likely source of high value expctations is the idea that a Luck-led offense can support two top-10 fantasy WRs.  Might even be true if they had an OL, but since they don't I agree.  If you can sell for WR1 value, it's a good sell high.

Braktastic said:

And yet I bet you I could not get a 3rd round dynasty pick for Andy Dalton right now in my start 1 QB dynasty rebuild.  I'll let you know as I'm trying.  Your remark is sound in theory but not in practice.

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QB is a different beast in a 1QB 12 team league though. It doesn't have much value outside of 2-3 guys. 

Milkman said:

WR

Cooper- One of the best WR in the NFL. Not sure why Carr doesn't target him more but I love the talent. He's 23.

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Based on what? His college film? I don't see how anyone looking at NFL stats or NFL film can call this one of the best WR in the NFL. I'm not saying you are wrong, I haven't see every game of his. I am biased since I called him as being overdrafted this year and in the NFL draft so this could be me being stubborn, but I just don't see the consistency with him and he just has not proven yet to be able to score in the RZ. Good player, lots of upside, but lets not yet great. 

A couple other thoughts:
 

- My issue with Ameer is that he's the main pass catching back and he's not the GL back. On top of that, he's been injury prone. I just don't see the upside to match the obvious downside. 

- @FF Ninja is probably right that the real time to buy on CJ Anderson was 6 weeks ago. 

The younger guys I would look at are:

Cameron Meredith- discussed earlier

Funchess- still really young (22), no reason to give up on a player after just 2 years but dynasty owners will, Cam needs an option other than Olsen and we have seen Kelvin certainly left questions as to whether he is a good NFL WR. 

Perriman- basically was a rookie this year, Steve Smith is gone and we know Perriman has explosive size-speed combo, impatient owner might be ready to call him a bust

Booker- spinning off of what was said about CJ, maybe Booker is the guy to buy. Owners might be disappointed after him getting his shot and failing. Denver o-line was really bad. CJ wasn't running well behind it either. CJ is sub par talent and injury prone. If Elway fixes the line and CJ disappoints or gets hurt, Booker will have a shot at redemption. 

The price will never be lower for Philly WR Jordan Matthews

Statorama said:

The price will never be lower for Philly WR Jordan Matthews

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Well that's just not true. 

FUBAR said:

Well that's just not true. 

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..ok, when Jordan Matthews is retired or dead, his price will be lower.

DropKick said:

The OP could add Randall Cobb to his list...  I'm not thrilled about Cobb or most of the list with the exception of Moncrief, maybe Arob, and Lewis in a PPR format. 

Your point is more in line with my thinking as I read the list - mostly guys approaching 30 and some with a significant injury history.  Why not go young as is the case with Meredith?  Jeffrey could be gone and, although White is also a younger player, he has had two major leg injuries and is still green at the position.

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This is a perfect illustration of why these guys will be cheap. They had a poor or injured season and people like you still think 30 is the end of usable life due to a stigma attached to RBs, but if you do some digging, 32 for WRs is what 30 is to RBs. So I'm all about buying me some cheap 28 and 29 year olds. They've still got 3-5 years of peak production left. While everyone was buying 22 yo Cooper for 25% of their budget, I was grabbing 29 yo Crabtree for a fraction of the price.

As for White's injuries, they've both been bone related, right? I'd worry more about soft tissue injuries, like repeated high ankle sprains, achilles or patellar tendon tears. I'm not anti-Meredith, but I think he's less likely to succeed than White. If they are a similar cost, I'm taking White.

And the reason for not always going young is when you need the return on investment. Younger guys tend to take a while to progress.

Milkman said:

Nice topic!

RB

Gurley - New coach coming. Improved QB play next year. They should draft some more help offensively.

Hyde - Got hurt but he looks good. If the offense improves and he can stay healthy he should be a RB1 easy next year.

Ware- Nice 1500 yards from scrimmage season. Under the radar a bit because he didn't score much.

WR

Cooper- One of the best WR in the NFL. Not sure why Carr doesn't target him more but I love the talent. He's 23.

Maclin- He just couldn't stay healthy this year. He's always been underrated. He could be cut or traded. Tyreek Hill hurts his upside in this offense but I bet you could get him for next to nothing.

Lockett- If you believe he is going to have a 100% recovery then I'd try and get him cheap now. He's already shown what he can do and he could be Seattle's #1 WR for 4-5 years with Wilson throwing to him. Top 5 WR in FF potential.

Doctson - Was hurt all year. He's going to be 25 but I like the talent.

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I feel like Cooper should be cheap, but his dynasty rankings are still very, very high. People view him as elite rather than a guy playing second fiddle to Crabtree.

Milkman said:

If there are owners in your league that value Moncrief like a high end WR2 or low end WR1 I would sell him quickly for that. He's never going to be Indy's #1. That spot belongs to T.Y. and he isn't going anywhere. I'm not saying Moncrief has no value because the offense he's on is nice but he's way overvalued right now it seems.

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Crap. That's me. I think Moncrief could sneak into the top 12 if he stays healthy. He's played a fraction of the snaps that Hilton has, yet he's got the same number of goal line targets and more total TDs. If this guy ever gets healthy, I think this could easily be a 1a/1b situation and I expect he'll continue to get more goal line love than Hilton. But I'm hoping to find an owner who is frustrated with his lack of production through 3 years. I won't want to pay a WR1/2 price, but I do think he's got that kind of upside.

Ilov80s said:

A couple other thoughts:
- My issue with Ameer is that he's the main pass catching back and he's not the GL back. On top of that, he's been injury prone. I just don't see the upside to match the obvious downside. 

- @FF Ninja is probably right that the real time to buy on CJ Anderson was 6 weeks ago. 

The younger guys I would look at are:

Cameron Meredith- discussed earlier

Funchess- still really young (22), no reason to give up on a player after just 2 years but dynasty owners will, Cam needs an option other than Olsen and we have seen Kelvin certainly left questions as to whether he is a good NFL WR. 

Perriman- basically was a rookie this year, Steve Smith is gone and we know Perriman has explosive size-speed combo, impatient owner might be ready to call him a bust

Booker- spinning off of what was said about CJ, maybe Booker is the guy to buy. Owners might be disappointed after him getting his shot and failing. Denver o-line was really bad. CJ wasn't running well behind it either. CJ is sub par talent and injury prone. If Elway fixes the line and CJ disappoints or gets hurt, Booker will have a shot at redemption. 

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Strongly disagree with the bolded. I was a doubter at first, but I'll admit when I'm wrong. CJA is the real deal. He was not having a great year, but he looked MUCH better than Booker. I wouldn't be opposed to grabbing Booker in a package deal to back up CJA, but I am not sold on Booker as a guy who will ascend to become a starter.

FWIW, Funchess was a reception perception dud prediction. I would not bother buying.

I hear you on Abdullah and I agree - not being the primary catcher or goal line guy is like RB purgatory, but as a believer in his talent, I think he'll eventually force the coaches to keep him on the field because he is a true dual threat. When Riddick is in there he's no genuine threat to run, whereas Abdullah can catch & run as well as Riddick. And even if I'm wrong about him taking over the backfield, he'll still accumulate points in that offense for the next 2 years and have a chance to shine somewhere else in free agency.

I don't get all the buy low talk on Meredith. I think his owners believe they found a diamond in the rough. In just 13 games, he's at 62/827/4 - and he didn't play much during his first two games. He just put up back-to-back 9 rec 100+ yard games to end the season. If anything Meredith is a sell high. The Bears have a large investment in another young player with even more potential. I don't perceive that offense to be able to support two fantasy relevant WRs, so you'd be buying a breakout player and banking on White busting if you try to trade for him now.

As for Perriman, I'm less optimistic about him than White. At least White has the injury excuse. Plus, White graded out better as a prospect. Perriman couldn't beat out a 37 yo Smiff, Wallace, or Aiken for playing time. He was clearly the WR4 in that offense this year. And it's not like he was a true rookie. He wasn't learning the system this year. He'd already sat through the meetings and learned the playbook last year, so he was on equal footing and came up short all season long (versus rising up the depth chart later). With Smith retiring and Aiken a FA, he'll get his shot next year but I'm not very confident in him.

I mean there is a reason these guys are cheap.  

Ilov80s said:

We can start with DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall this year. Both were were worse than ARob. 

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Agree with Marshall, as age seems to be catching up with him IMO more than the situation.

As far as Hopkins is concerned, it seems to be the Brock factor more than anything else. That might be equally true with ARob and Bortles, but I have this uneasiness that there are other factors involved here (lack of motivation, personality issues, whatever) at least to the point that while I am willing to hold or acquire Hopkins until Osweiler either improves or is replaced, I don't have the same optimism that a improved or new QB will be the fix for ARob.

either Crowder or Doctson should be on this list (if not both) as Cousins has proven he can play, and the offense is definitely more pass oriented than run. And unless something changes, sounds like DeSean and Garcon are both gone 

FF Ninja said:

Crap. That's me. I think Moncrief could sneak into the top 12 if he stays healthy. He's played a fraction of the snaps that Hilton has, yet he's got the same number of goal line targets and more total TDs. If this guy ever gets healthy, I think this could easily be a 1a/1b situation and I expect he'll continue to get more goal line love than Hilton. But I'm hoping to find an owner who is frustrated with his lack of production through 3 years. I won't want to pay a WR1/2 price, but I do think he's got that kind of upside.

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Yeah I get why you like the opportunity. When I watch him play I don't see it. I don't see flashes of greatness. I don't see anything that gets me excited. Ever. He's on a great offense with an elite QB who is going to throw a lot. He is not close to the talent Hilton is and Hilton and Luck have developed a great relationship. It's the type of situation where a more talented player comes in and pushes Moncrief to option #3 or even option #4 overnight and you are left with an asset worth next to nothing.

Milkman said:

Yeah I get why you like the opportunity. When I watch him play I don't see it. I don't see flashes of greatness. I don't see anything that gets me excited. Ever. He's on a great offense with an elite QB who is going to throw a lot. He is not close to the talent Hilton is and Hilton and Luck have developed a great relationship. It's the type of situation where a more talented player comes in and pushes Moncrief to option #3 or even option #4 overnight and you are left with an asset worth next to nothing.

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I'm a fan largely due to Matt Harmon's article: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-improved-technician-donte-moncrief-is-set-to-explode-in-2016.html

FF Ninja said:

I'm a fan largely due to Matt Harmon's article: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-improved-technician-donte-moncrief-is-set-to-explode-in-2016.html

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Yeah I like those articles too. This year when Moncrief was healthy he never exploded. He was a TD dependent  WR3/4 really. No thanks.

I like Matt Harmon and his work is good,but it's just 1 analysis. He struck gold last year with AR15 but he's had plenty of misses.

I feel like he's had more hits than misses. I mean, I definitely give him a break when it comes to injuries. Moncrief was only healthy for about 6 full games this year. He did score a TD in all six, though.

Milkman said:

Yeah I get why you like the opportunity. When I watch him play I don't see it. I don't see flashes of greatness. I don't see anything that gets me excited. Ever. He's on a great offense with an elite QB who is going to throw a lot. He is not close to the talent Hilton is and Hilton and Luck have developed a great relationship. It's the type of situation where a more talented player comes in and pushes Moncrief to option #3 or even option #4 overnight and you are left with an asset worth next to nothing.

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Do you think Dorsett could be the guy to surpass him?

man I wish Dorsett would do something. I was so wrong on him. I thought he would really be something in that offense. 

petekrum said:

Do you think Dorsett could be the guy to surpass him?

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No. I'm not high on him either.....