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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears

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25 minutes ago, Shutout said:

We've seen with the Rams what a change can do for the offense if you have the pieces in place.  Maybe a new coach and Meredith back and a couple of good offensive free agents could jump start this thing and not waste what looks to be a very promising opportunity. 

With that said, think if the Bears had taken Watson instead.  

I don't think taking Watson makes any difference. We can't say yet that Watson will be a better QB than Trubisky (though I'm sure in our instant take environment many have, just as they decided Goff was a bust after half a season). If Watson was on the Bears he'd be handing the ball off 50 times and managing the hell out of the game too. He wouldn't have any WRs to throw to. Watson has been put in a position to maximise his abilities - they are running an offense built for him, not asking him to be a traditional pocket passer. Credit to them. Trubisky is in the worst situation imaginable in terms of making him look good. All I'm looking for from him this season are flashes of natural talent. 

Edited by RushHour

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18 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I don't think taking Watson makes any difference. We can't say yet that Watson will be a better QB than Trubisky (though I'm sure in our instant take environment many have, just as they decided Goff was a bust after half a season). If Watson was on the Bears he'd be handing the ball off 50 times and managing the hell out of the game too. He wouldn't have any WRs to throw to. Watson has been put in a position to maximise his abilities - they are running an offense built for him, not asking him to be a traditional pocket passer. Credit to them. Trubisky is in the worst situation imaginable in terms of making him look good. All I'm looking for from him this season are flashes of natural talent. 

I get all that. Can't disagree. Wasn't trying to though. It was more of a thought of me thinking that I like trubisky a lot. He really seems to have  "it". But, to me,watson looks like the real deal, no doubt.  I don't think trubisky would be doing what Watson has if he were on the Texans.  Just my opinion. Who knows? 

I definitely think trubisky has a lot of natural talent.  If the Bears don't bungleit up, he should be a fine player.  Last year, I thought Goff was a good qb in a very bad situation.  It's not that different with trubisky now.   I guess that was my message.  Let's get some pieces around this guy and adopt a good offensive philosophy and see what he can do. I think it will be a lot 

Edited by Shutout
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1 hour ago, Faust said:

Great article and I agree that he has been impressive this far despite the numbers.   He’s light years ahead of kizer.   He has no weapons outside of his rbs.   So sad.  I hope the bears trade for Martavis Bryant.  

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19 hours ago, Shutout said:

Why do you say that about those three in particular?

Those guys are in that discussion as well but what ive seen from the three i mentioned makes me value them higher. Trubisky and Goff have shown flashes of brilliance every game this year.  They are not being valued correctly imo and are both strong buys right now. Dak is a dual threat assassin that wasn't being valued correctly last year but his value has steadily been on the rise so you might have to pay to much for him now. 

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Mitch Trubisky threw a grand total of 7 passes in last week's win.

The last time a quarterback threw fewer than 9 passes in a win? Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos, 11/13/2011. The coach? John Fox.

The last time before that game in which a quarterback threw fewer than 9 passes in a win? Chris Weinke, Carolina Panthers, 12/24/2006. The coach? John Fox.

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Ryan Wood‏Verified account @ByRyanWood Nov 8

Josh Sitton with funny anecdote on Mitch Trubisky: "We started to break the huddle early, and he said, ‘Get the f--- back in the huddle, and don’t break it until I break it.’ He kind of cussed at all of us linemen, and I was like, ‘Hell, yeah. I respect the s--- out of that.’

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Mitchell Trubisky completed 21-of-35 passes for 297 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' Week 10 loss to the Packers.

The 297 yards were a season high. Trubisky wound up throwing far more than the Bears would have liked due to negative game flow. His highlight play was a 46-yard scoring connection with Josh Bellamy in the second half. Trubisky didn't get much help from his pass catchers otherwise, as they suffered through a seemingly countless string of drops. Trubisky will be a low-end two-quarterback-league play in Week 11 versus Detroit.

Nov 12 - 4:14 PM

 

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I'm as high on Trubisky as I was on Dak last year. He has nobody around him and he's throwing dimes all over the field. With all the drops he could have had 400+ yards today.

 

Buy him wherever you can in dynasty leagues before everybody else catches on. He's going to be a stud for the next 15 years. 

Edited by Milkman
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2 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

The best rookie QB ever wouldn't succeed on the Bears. 

I’d like to see Trubisky with some legit receivers and better coaching.

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Matt Nagy named head coach of Chicago Bears

Excerpt:

Hiring Nagy is a great sign for the development Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Nagy helped coax the best season of Alex Smith's career in 2017 and aided the development of Chiefs first-round pick Patrick Mahomes. 

Getting an offensive mind in the building to nurture Trubisky was the Bears' No. 1 priority this offseason. Nagy is their man. His tenure will be defined by how quickly Trubisky develops into the franchise quarterback the Bears have searched generations to find.

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Finding him a couple of WR to throw to would help immensely too. One of the poorest groups of targets to throw to in the league.

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54 minutes ago, Dismattle said:

Can we see some examples of what people are being offered or have been willing to trade to acquire Trubisky??

In a 12 team, 1 qb format it shouldn’t be much.

I traded for him but it was last year in a super flex. It was Newton & 2nd for Trubisky & 3rd. I really wanted to move on from Newton before he starts falling off but also I’d been trying to move him for 3 years and nobody really wanted him in this particular league. I’d say it was an overpay at the time but I feel running qbs age like rbs.

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On 2018-03-20 at 8:52 AM, Faust said:

I like him but there’s a lot of expectations right now. He’s very inexperienced still and the guys they brought in all have big question marks. Might be cheaper to buy during the season than now when it’s all rainbows and unicorns.

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I like him even more with who the bears added and the new HC. I'd buy now myself. It's not going to be cheap if he pulls a Goff. 

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Logically I know the odds that he will go from a lower tier QB to being a fantasy relevent QB (top 12) are long.  But I did see a spark in his style of play last year that made me feel more optimistic than the results warranted. I am an old Vikings fan and so I don't say this lightly, but Trubisky reminds me of Fran Tarkington.  He has the ability to scramble and keep a play alive and then find the open man.  He has the ability to roll out and throw accurately on the run.  He doesn't have the strongest arm in the world, but he has above average accuracy.  And he looks like a leader--a guy who isn't afraid and doesn't back down.  

Now the team is giving him some weapons and a new OC who wants a more dynamic offense.

But logically, I know most promising young QBs do not become super stars.  

Unless he blows the lid of his ceiling and becomes a startable QB (top 12), his value will fall.  So this may be the best time to trade. Plus the rookie QBs are not on teams yet and so their allure is not clouding the market.

Bottom line: if you think he is going to become a super star, you should hang on, but if you think he is more likely to become a middling Qb (Qb13-20), then this is the time to sell.

I'll probably hold onto him because of my gut feeling.

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12 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Logically I know the odds that he will go from a lower tier QB to being a fantasy relevent QB (top 12) are long.  But I did see a spark in his style of play last year that made me feel more optimistic than the results warranted. I am an old Vikings fan and so I don't say this lightly, but Trubisky reminds me of Fran Tarkington.  He has the ability to scramble and keep a play alive and then find the open man.  He has the ability to roll out and throw accurately on the run.  He doesn't have the strongest arm in the world, but he has above average accuracy.  And he looks like a leader--a guy who isn't afraid and doesn't back down.  

Now the team is giving him some weapons and a new OC who wants a more dynamic offense.

But logically, I know most promising young QBs do not become super stars.  

Unless he blows the lid of his ceiling and becomes a startable QB (top 12), his value will fall.  So this may be the best time to trade. Plus the rookie QBs are not on teams yet and so their allure is not clouding the market.

Bottom line: if you think he is going to become a super star, you should hang on, but if you think he is more likely to become a middling Qb (Qb13-20), then this is the time to sell.

I'll probably hold onto him because of my gut feeling.

Hmmm. Sounds like goff last year. Guy goes #1 overall, fantasy community writes him off, goes from old school coach to new offensive mind, adds some weapons, I’ll wait and see the results. 

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I’m puzzled as to why everyone is going bananas over Mahomes (who I do like) but there’s still this caution with Trubisky. He was in the worst possible situation for a rookie last year, made some mistakes, but overall I think acquitted himself very well. He has a ton of talent and now has some weapons and a coaching staff who will give him a chance to thrive. 

The Goff comparison is obvious and well-work but it’s pretty apt. I’m expecting a huge leap from Trubisky this year and I don’t see why his standing in dynasty QB rankings shouldn’t be much higher this time next year. I think we’ll see plenty of fantasy analysts claim they loved Trubisky as a prospect all along after he blows up.  I’d rather have him already than plenty of guys ranked ahead of him (e.g. Mariota, Winston, Carr).

I just bring up Mahomes because to me their situations are pretty similar but all the hype is with Mahomes which should make Trubisky a great value. Trubisky has the advantage of having played a season already and IMO was a better prospect coming out. I think Trubisky is just one of those guys that people don’t like for whatever reason whereas Mahomes has this aura about him for some people.

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These links are from February but very positive analysis of Trubisky's skills.

This article breaks down his skills and illustrates with video:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/mitchell-trubisky-already-established-himself-as-bears-franchise-saving-qb/

Pro Football Focus rates his rookie year the best of 2017 rookie QBs:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/mitch-trubisky-shockingly-receives-higher-rookie-year-grade-than-deshaun-watson/

Edited by az_prof

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I'm all over this kid. His numbers didn't look all that great last year but he had nothing to work with really. Chicago has done a good job upgrading his receiving options. I see him taking a big step forward and being a top 7ish dynasty QB this time next year. 

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57 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'm all over this kid. His numbers didn't look all that great last year but he had nothing to work with really. Chicago has done a good job upgrading his receiving options. I see him taking a big step forward and being a top 7ish dynasty QB this time next year. 

Agreed on almost everything. Top 7 seems high to me, especially considering Goff isn't top 10 according to the FBG rankings. My expectations for Mitch are just a little behind Goff. 

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

I'm all over this kid. His numbers didn't look all that great last year but he had nothing to work with really. Chicago has done a good job upgrading his receiving options. I see him taking a big step forward and being a top 7ish dynasty QB this time next year. 

Top 7 dynasty QB is a stretch, but I like what CHI has done to put Trubisky in a position to succeed.  CHI's offense should be well balanced.  As a Bears fan, I am excited to see how this plays out.

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Goff is a top 5 QB for me. My rankings don't look like FBG's though......like Engram is a top 10 dynasty asset to me.....he's probably not top 30 on FBG's board. 

Trubisky reminds me of Aaron Rodgers with his accuracy.  

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Speaking Thursday, Bears RG Kyle Long said the coaching staff has "taken the training wheels off" of Mitchell Trubisky.

"My little boy is becoming a man," Long said. "Mitch -- they've taken the training wheels off of Mitch's little bike. So he's going to be able to do some things creatively and get to showcase his skills. We're excited to see him. He's a tremendous leader and somebody the guys look up to in the locker room." Ex-coach John Fox predictably shackled Trubisky as a rookie, only letting him go as far as game manager-type, but the new staff led by innovative minds, coach Matt Nagy and OC Mark Helfrich, plan to unleash their young passer. Trubisky flashed as a rookie and is a dark horse candidate to make a significant second-year leap.

Source: Madeline Kenney on Twitter 

Jul 12 - 5:27 PM

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Trubisky will make a huge leap in 2018:

1. Better coaching

2. Better receivers

3. More experience

The question is whether he can become a top 10 QB.  This is always the question with QBs.  If they can't, and ideally, if they can't be top 6, their value is pretty minimal.  

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