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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears

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Trubisky only started one year at North Carolina and he's still only 24 years old. If I needed a QB in dynasty he'd be one of the QBs I was targeting because he can probably be acquired for a 2nd round rookie pick. I don't think he's a lock to jump up in that upper level of QB's but this is likely the year everybody catches on to how good he is if he makes that leap. Then next year you're looking at a 25 year old top 6 QB.......

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30 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Trubisky only started one year at North Carolina and he's still only 24 years old. If I needed a QB in dynasty he'd be one of the QBs I was targeting because he can probably be acquired for a 2nd round rookie pick. I don't think he's a lock to jump up in that upper level of QB's but this is likely the year everybody catches on to how good he is if he makes that leap. Then next year you're looking at a 25 year old top 6 QB.......

Exactly how I see it too

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He makes that jump and he's worth a 1st round pick. Especially in 4 pt passing TD leagues. There's some value with him if he takes that step. 

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He had a 3 game stretch where he averaged 334 yards, 3.6 TDs, 1 int, 60 rushing yards, and .33 TDs a game. Even if he was running hot, which he probably was, if you take 15-20% off of that its a monsterous 

4500-40-16 passing

700-5 rushing

I'm not sold 100% he can take that leap. I think he can but if he does he has #1 QB in FF upside for sure with his duel threat capability. He is not priced right at the moment imo. Take advantage. 

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5 hours ago, Milkman said:

Trubisky only started one year at North Carolina and he's still only 24 years old. If I needed a QB in dynasty he'd be one of the QBs I was targeting because he can probably be acquired for a 2nd round rookie pick. I don't think he's a lock to jump up in that upper level of QB's but this is likely the year everybody catches on to how good he is if he makes that leap. Then next year you're looking at a 25 year old top 6 QB.......

I just traded AB for trubisky, Mark Ingram, a 2020 1st rd and 2nd rd pick.  Agreed on his trajectory.  He was actually a solid fantasy qb  last year and looks to be taking a step forward in year 2 in nagy’s system 

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32 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I just traded AB for trubisky, Mark Ingram, a 2020 1st rd and 2nd rd pick.  Agreed on his trajectory.  He was actually a solid fantasy qb  last year and looks to be taking a step forward in year 2 in nagy’s system 

I’m on the fence. Pff had an article about him being one of the worst qbs last year. Their position was that Nagy created a lot of easy throws for him. Will be an interesting year and I own quite a few shares of him in dynasty so hoping he makes a leap.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

I’m on the fence. Pff had an article about him being one of the worst qbs last year. Their position was that Nagy created a lot of easy throws for him. Will be an interesting year and I own quite a few shares of him in dynasty so hoping he makes a leap.

PFF could easily be right based on the numbers. Trubisky was a terrible deep ball thrower last year. You could see how bad he was on deep throws at games. But if Nagy creates easy throws for him, and Trubisky is producing in that great system, then he should be good for multiple years because Nagy won't be going anywhere for a long while.

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17 minutes ago, buck naked said:

PFF could easily be right based on the numbers. Trubisky was a terrible deep ball thrower last year. You could see how bad he was on deep throws at games. But if Nagy creates easy throws for him, and Trubisky is producing in that great system, then he should be good for multiple years because Nagy won't be going anywhere for a long while.

I thought he got better after a rocky start. I watched a game early in the year and he was brutal, overthrowing guys by 10 yards.

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They babied him into the league, but he was very raw, so I understand. He has looked elite less times than he hasn’t. He is a hometown boy and I own him, but I think that he may still be a year off until it all clicks. I took him in the 2nd round of my rookie draft (right after Maholmes) and I drafted Mayfield last year. Hopefully this becomes a weekly starter problem.

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I'm a Trubisky fan and I think the "Blake Bortles 2.0" take that is around is completely lazy analysis and unfair. 

This is one of the best articles I've seen on Trubisky because it acknowledges his weaknesses but also points out areas where he's elite. My thing with him has always been, sure he makes mistakes, but some of the throws he can make, most other QBs simply can't make. 

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubisky-has-no-middle-ground/

Ultimately if he can't fix some of the negatives, he's not going to get into that elite echelon, but I still believe he has the tools. It amazes me how quickly most people have written him off based on PFF grades and the twitter echo chamber that has concluded that he sucks (yet Darnold is ascending, even though he hasn't shown half the ability of Trubisky). It seems that most people decided he was terrible from the day he was drafted. There's still a lot of room for improvement. 

 

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There are enough good QBs who are eligible for 2020 to take a risk on Trubisky in 2019.

Tex

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He's the best potential/cost ratio young QB out there.  He's still very, very cheap but we still don't know what his ceiling is. 

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

He's the best potential/cost ratio young QB out there.  He's still very, very cheap but we still don't know what his ceiling is. 

Do you mean we don't know if he'll develop enough to hit his ceiling because with the weapons he has, the offensive system, and he's rushing upside his ceiling is #1 QB in FF. 

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46 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Do you mean we don't know if he'll develop enough to hit his ceiling because with the weapons he has, the offensive system, and he's rushing upside his ceiling is #1 QB in FF. 

I agree with everything about his situation, and I actually like him as a player, but how much he can develop is part of his ceiling imo. If he doesn’t develop better accuracy the rest of that stuff alone will not be enough to raise him to 1QB because that’s a crowded field as is.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree with everything about his situation, and I actually like him as a player, but how much he can develop is part of his ceiling imo. If he doesn’t develop better accuracy the rest of that stuff alone will not be enough to raise him to 1QB because that’s a crowded field as is.

Yeah I think that's what hankmoody meant too. I guess I'm really intrigued with his upside because of his running ability. If he develops, and he's only 24 so he definitely can, he could potentially jump into the top 5 real quick.

 

He starts throwing for 4300+ yards and running for 400-500 yards and he starts looking a lot like a young Aaron Rodgers.......just saying......

Edited by Milkman
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On 7/13/2019 at 7:03 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree with everything about his situation, and I actually like him as a player, but how much he can develop is part of his ceiling imo. If he doesn’t develop better accuracy the rest of that stuff alone will not be enough to raise him to 1QB because that’s a crowded field as is.

The thing is, his accuracy was one of that traits they touted as his strengths entering the 2017 NFL draft. And while I have not done any research on his accuracy, if true, it tells me that his accuracy issues could be simply due to the change in the speed of the game and learning a new offense - one year in a complex system with no WR's from the previous year. Additionally, one of the knocks on Trubisky was his lack of playing time - 13 total games played in college. The perfect storm is there and this year will be telling but I am expecting him to take the next step. He has a high ceiling.

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Nagy could hold him back a bit too. It seems like Nagy comes out calling the right plays and Trubisky looks amazing the first 10 plays or so and then Nagy takes his foot off the pedal. He needs to let Trubisky go this year. All those weapons and Trubisky's duel threat abilities......Nagy still worries me though.......

Edited by Milkman

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8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

1Nagy could hold him back a bit too. It seems like Nagy comes out calling the right playd and Trubisky looks amazing the first 10 plays or so and then Nagy takes his foot of the pedal. He needs to let Trubisky go this year. All those weapons and Trubisky's duel threat abilities......Nagy still worries me though.......

I hear what you are saying about Nagy but I think that was the plan for Trubisky last year. Small steps, limit the chances of breaking his confidence. Quote from Nagy below on the upcoming season:

“To me the growth right now that’s really neat to see is his ability to come out here and take (control),” Nagy told reporters. “Last year, I kept talking about 101. Now, without a doubt, I can say with pure conviction we’re in 202 right now. And we don’t need to have a live game to see mentally where he’s at with calling the plays. I mean, he’s doing things in the last two days that last year at this time he wasn’t even close to. So that’s exciting.

Edited by MooversShakers
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I could def see it going either way. Trubisky could be Nagy's Alex Smith. That would be bad for FF. 

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4 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I could def see it going either way. Trubisky could be Nagy's Alex Smith. That would be bad for FF. 

I don't disagree, I'm just betting on the high ceiling side.

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David Prince @viewsbydavid

From what I’ve seen today, Mitch Trubisky looks really crisp and confident in each throw. Looks like a total different QB from last year. 

That being said, the #Bears defense looks even better, faster, and hungrier. This year is going to be special folks.

8:45 am 2019 -07-27

 

Quote

Albert Breer @AlbertBreer

Bears QB Chase Daniel on difference in Mitch Trubisky this year: “Night and day. ... He’s not learning the offense, he’s running the offense.”

9:09 am 2019-07-29

 

Edited by Faust
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On 7/24/2019 at 7:22 AM, Milkman said:

I could def see it going either way. Trubisky could be Nagy's Alex Smith. That would be bad for FF. 

Alex Smith was Alex Smith long before Nagy.

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52 minutes ago, matuski said:

Alex Smith was Alex Smith long before Nagy.

Nagy isn't exactly unleashing the dragon with Trubisky so far. Maybe he will this year. Last year Trubisky would come out and tear it up the first series or two it seemed and then the offense got more predictable and more risk adverse. Almost like the first 10-15 plays were scripted. We need more of that. 

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Rich Campbell @Rich_Campbell

Trubisky answers. 

Situation: Tie game, less than 2 minutes left. Beautiful 45-yard TD bomb to Javon Wims, who outran Kyle Fuller down the right sideline. 

Perfect amount of air under it, out in front of Wims where it was safe. One of his best throws this camp. #Bears

 

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On 4/3/2018 at 5:14 PM, Chicago Hooligan said:

Still 125 interceptions away from catching Sid Luckman but I have faith.

Now trailing by only 113, Trubisky looks to cut the lead to double digits in 2019. Godspeed.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Hooligan said:

Now trailing by only 113, Trubisky looks to cut the lead to double digits in 2019. Godspeed.

If he has a long career he will definitely surpass that total.  Maybe he has his sites set on Brett Favre. 

Are you expecting him to be a hall of famer like Luckman too?

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Chicago Tribune on #Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s third training camp:

"Hasn’t exactly passed the eye test. … Too many INTs, too many throws off the mark, and too many days where the QB and his offense have been uneven."https://t.co/u07ByW9rXj

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

The Trib also noted here how #Bears HC Matt Nagy spoke Sunday of "scaling back" the offense to "get back to just playing fast and that sort of thing."

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

Reports have him struggling against the twos as well unfortunately

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

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3 hours ago, zeeshan2 said:

Chicago Tribune on #Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s third training camp:

"Hasn’t exactly passed the eye test. … Too many INTs, too many throws off the mark, and too many days where the QB and his offense have been uneven."https://t.co/u07ByW9rXj

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

The Trib also noted here how #Bears HC Matt Nagy spoke Sunday of "scaling back" the offense to "get back to just playing fast and that sort of thing."

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

Reports have him struggling against the twos as well unfortunately

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

Silva is a known Trubisky basher. Cherry picks anything that suits his anti-Trubisky narrative (in line with the rest of the national media it seems), doesn't tweet any of the positives. Not to say he hasn't been inconsistent or there aren't areas for improvement, but I wouldn't take much notice of What Silva tweets about him. He's already a bust in his eyes.

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2 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Don't understand how he's ranked so low this year

I think it's because the narrative all along has been that he's terrible. That matters in terms of rankings and perception. 

It's going to take a super high quality season on the field (not just in fantasy) for that narrative to shift. 

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4 hours ago, zeeshan2 said:

Chicago Tribune on #Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s third training camp:

"Hasn’t exactly passed the eye test. … Too many INTs, too many throws off the mark, and too many days where the QB and his offense have been uneven."https://t.co/u07ByW9rXj

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

The Trib also noted here how #Bears HC Matt Nagy spoke Sunday of "scaling back" the offense to "get back to just playing fast and that sort of thing."

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

 

Reports have him struggling against the twos as well unfortunately

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 12, 2019

You lost me at Evan Silva.

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1 hour ago, RushHour said:

Silva is a known Trubisky basher. Cherry picks anything that suits his anti-Trubisky narrative (in line with the rest of the national media it seems), doesn't tweet any of the positives. Not to say he hasn't been inconsistent or there aren't areas for improvement, but I wouldn't take much notice of What Silva tweets about him. He's already a bust in his eyes.

I wouldn't completely trust it if it was just Silva's take.  He does seem to want to prove himself right about Trubisky being a bust (similar to some on a fantasy football message board).  But Silva is citing the Chicago Tribune so it isn't really his opinion.  And the Tribune is probably the most credible source on the Bears with the possible exception of a few national media figures.  Here is the part of the Tribune article about Trubisky in context (it isn't quite as bad as Silva makes it out to be but it ain't good) :

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bears/ct-bears-khalil-mack-kickers-mitch-trubisky-matt-nagy-20190811-ywpkuvz7mnf4bgsq3d6awfsaj4-story.html

As the Bears leave Bourbonnais, Chicago is left with a bit of a “Choose Your Own Adventure.” On the one hand, teammates have continued to praise everything about the soon-to-be 25-year-old quarterback, lauding his leadership, work ethic and attention to detail. Coaches have also emphasized how much progress Trubisky has made in operating the huddle, making pre-snap reads, properly setting protections, correctly diagnosing defenses and sharpening his touchdown-to-checkdown mentality. For those who choose to put the most stock in those in-house evaluations, it’s reasonable to expect Trubisky will have one of the best seasons a Bears quarterback has ever had.

“Mentally, with the things he’s recognizing and the questions he’s asking, it’s clear he’s taken the next step,” quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone said.

On the other hand, Trubisky hasn’t exactly passed the eye test since camp began. For every flash of brilliance, there’s been a warning sign or two that 2019 may remain a bit of a roller coaster for the offense. There have been too many interceptions, too many throws that are off the mark and too many days where the quarterback and his offense have been uneven. Yes, they’re playing against that aforementioned elite Bears defense. And yes, training camp will always have some trial-and-error dynamics at play. But to the naked eye, Trubisky has looked like a developing middle-tier quarterback and far from an MVP candidate. For those who choose to acknowledge that assessment, the bumps in the road will feel far less jarring when the season begins.

What’s next?

The objective realist — an endangered species in 2019 — will likely choose the path in between the two roads above, recognizing Trubisky’s current weaknesses while still feeling encouraged by his continued growth and long-term potential. Trubisky likely won’t be good enough in Year 3 to carry the Bears all the way to the Super Bowl. (He may not have to be.) And he won’t likely struggle enough to torpedo the Bears’ playoff hopes either. So can Bears fans handle another season in the gray area, another year that could very well end with a hung verdict and more divisive debate on whether their quarterback is a championship-caliber playmaker or just a giant tease?

The most important reminder for the Bears is that while the Week 1 showdown with the Packers will carry incredible anticipation and a playoff feel, it’s just the first of 16 games. Trubisky doesn’t need to be a finished product by Labor Day. But he does need to show significant progress between now and New Year’s Eve for the Bears’ Super Bowl hopes to have real validity.

On Sunday, Nagy talked about scaling back on how much the Bears have been installing offensively and remembering to stick with plays that are familiar and are within the offense’s core concepts.

“Let's get back to just playing fast and that sort of thing,” Nagy said. “We'll figure out what we like and what we don't like. But we've hit that limit of testing them. It's time to pull back now and start gearing up so that these young guys and the vets can start getting more and more confidence.”

Edited by Don Hutson
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fwiw, I live in Chicago and the beat reporters have been pretty consistent in that he's not having the best camp. Yes, it is very a good defense, maybe the best defense this year, but his accuracy continues to be an issue and we all saw those bad throws last year. I think he will improve but again, history tells us that you either have accuracy or you don't. 

 

He's still got really good wheels, is a decent game manager at the least, and is on an overall good offense, so I think he's still a value in some drafts.

Edited by pbandy1
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4 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

As the Bears leave Bourbonnais, Chicago is left with a bit of a “Choose Your Own Adventure.” On the one hand, teammates have continued to praise everything about the soon-to-be 25-year-old quarterback, lauding his leadership, work ethic and attention to detail. Coaches have also emphasized how much progress Trubisky has made in operating the huddle, making pre-snap reads, properly setting protections, correctly diagnosing defenses and sharpening his touchdown-to-checkdown mentality. For those who choose to put the most stock in those in-house evaluations, it’s reasonable to expect Trubisky will have one of the best seasons a Bears quarterback has ever had.

On the other hand, Trubisky hasn’t exactly passed the eye test since camp began. For every flash of brilliance, there’s been a warning sign or two that 2019 may remain a bit of a roller coaster for the offense. There have been too many interceptions, too many throws that are off the mark and too many days where the quarterback and his offense have been uneven. Yes, they’re playing against that aforementioned elite Bears defense. And yes, training camp will always have some trial-and-error dynamics at play. But to the naked eye, Trubisky has looked like a developing middle-tier quarterback and far from an MVP candidate. For those who choose to acknowledge that assessment, the bumps in the road will feel far less jarring when the season begins.

.....

“Let's get back to just playing fast and that sort of thing,” Nagy said. “We'll figure out what we like and what we don't like. But we've hit that limit of testing them. It's time to pull back now and start gearing up so that these young guys and the vets can start getting more and more confidence.”

From what I gathered, Nagy instructed Trubisky to take chances while in training camp just to see what kind of shenanigans he could get away with. This is consistent with Nagy's bolded quote, where it sounds like that time has ended having learned what they needed; now they need to prepare to play football based off of that. Silva doesn't consider this context, probably doesn't even know about it. He has a point to prove after all.

A lot of reasons for skepticism toward Mitch, but this training camp stuff shouldn't be one of them, imo.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

 

From what I gathered, Nagy instructed Trubisky to take chances while in training camp just to see what kind of shenanigans he could get away with.

 

So maybe Trubisky is more Alex Smith game manager than Patrick Mahomes gunslinger.  That isn't surprising.  He can still be a legit NFL quarterback.  But it does put a damper on his fantasy prospects.  I wasn't targeting him this year due to the glut of quality quarterbacks anyhow.  But this might make me less likely to draft Allen Robinson who I was liking at his 6th round adp.

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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Trubisky is the opposite of a game manager, but Nagy isn't the kind of coach that will let him sling like Mahomes. Maybe Trubisky will never be as consistent as people want but I still think his arm talent is rare. He can make some truly incredible throws that other QBs can't. 

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Only problem I see is the bears having such a good defense that they won't call a lot of chancy pass plays. Coaches love to dial it back when they are in a position to do so.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Here's a great video on breaking down Trubisky's game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-d9SGrAdLg&t=1047s

I like Brett Kollman, that’s a good one.

Talk about echo chamber, though...pretty sure I’ve read articles or listened to podcasts or watch YT vids at least 5-6 times this off-season asking the same general question. “Is Trubisky actually a Good QB?”

Another good read with several play breakdowns - sorry if this is a honda.

Mitchell Trubisky Has No Middle Ground

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Bears Avg'd 18.4 ppg last 5 games of 2018 including the playoff loss. openend preseason 2019 with a 13 pt yawner vs. Car.Yes, this is something people should take notice of.

there was an article on a Chicago newspaper asking whether or not opposing defenses have caught up with what the Bears are doing.

I think the evidence is pretty clear the answer is yes. You can talk up Chuck Pagano all you want, but he's nothing like Vic Fangio. 

When I've watched the Bears, MT looks like a glorified Tannehill to me, i.e., he's not that good.

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12 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Bears Avg'd 18.4 ppg last 5 games of 2018 including the playoff loss. openend preseason 2019 with a 13 pt yawner vs. Car.Yes, this is something people should take notice of.

there was an article on a Chicago newspaper asking whether or not opposing defenses have caught up with what the Bears are doing.

I think the evidence is pretty clear the answer is yes. You can talk up Chuck Pagano all you want, but he's nothing like Vic Fangio. 

When I've watched the Bears, MT looks like a glorified Tannehill to me, i.e., he's not that good.

Why would anyone take the first preseason game to make any predictions like that.  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  They barely had any starters in and they didn't use much of their playbook. 

As for the Trubisky/Tannehill comparison, I'm not sure I see it yet.  I still feel it's too early to know what Trubisky really is.  I see some major talent but he still makes too many mistakes.  He's good enough to win a lot of games and a SB with good players around him, which he just happens to have right now.  The one thing I have liked about Trubisky is how well he seems to do in clutch moments.  He proved last year he can get it done when he needs too and that's something the Bears have not had at QB in a long time.

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Very comfortable with him as a QB2 in superflex. Not sure I'd wanna rely on him as my #1.

Suspect he's gonna have a long but mediocre career...ala Flacco

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