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***Chicago Bears Thread*** Poles is playing 5D chess! (20 Viewers)

JIMGET said:
Yes, very hard to draft a DE that could get two sacks in 7 games, which is what Fowler has this year.....

The guy is the same as Floyd...
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More productive history and 2 sacks is an improvement over Floyd.  That’s how bad Floyd has been.  Trying to bull rush instead of using his speed and quickness to get the O-lineman off balance and then dip inside.

 
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-X- said:
Well, Fowler went for a 2019 3rd and a 2020 5th.  I’d make that trade all day long. Plenty of leeway within that structure to get something done.

The odds of drafting a pass rusher equivalent to Fowler in the mid-rounds are slim-to-none.  They probably could’ve weaseled a pick back like they did in the Mack trade.
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I believe the Bears only have 4 draft picks next year, a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th.  You would have been fine with trading away their 3rd leaving them with only 3 total picks, all being late rounds.  Not only would the Bears give up a pick from next year but also 2020 which they only have 5 picks in.  Trading away a 2020 5th rounder would leave them with a 2nd, 4th, 6th and 7th that year.  On top of the the Bears would have to negotiate a new contract with him next year.

He would really have to be worth it because the Bears would not be able to add much more talent in the draft the next two years.

 
flapgreen said:
Long in a boot and on a knee scooter. Prepare to be without him for the rest of the season on likely not coming back next year. 
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man... we have some offensive line depth issues right now, not liking the interior at all. Need Daniels and Kush both healthy for the remainder. Time to move on from Long

 
-X- said:
More productive history and 2 sacks is an improvement over Floyd.  That’s how bad Floyd has been.  Trying to bull rush instead of using his speed and quickness to get the O-lineman off balance and then dip inside.
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Really?  Career stats for floyd 2016-2018, 29 games 29 starts, 3FR, 11.5 sack, 84 tackles, 22 qb hits

Fowler Career stats 2016-2018 39 games 1 start. 4 FR, 14 sack 61 tackles, 22 qb hits

So in 10 more games, due to floyd injury, fowler has 2.5 more sacks, 23 less tackles?  Same OR LESSER guy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FloyLe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FowlDa00.htm

 
JIMGET said:
Really?  Career stats for floyd 2016-2018, 29 games 29 starts, 3FR, 11.5 sack, 84 tackles, 22 qb hits

Fowler Career stats 2016-2018 39 games 1 start. 4 FR, 14 sack 61 tackles, 22 qb hits

So in 10 more games, due to floyd injury, fowler has 2.5 more sacks, 23 less tackles?  Same OR LESSER guy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FloyLe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FowlDa00.htm
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I’m taking your provided resources and supplementing them with another critical piece of data yours don’t account for.

Still looking for some additional pertinent data.

I’ll give you a hint on the preliminary results.  Fowler is the superior pass rusher by far over Floyd and is two years younger.

 
-X- said:
I’m taking your provided resources and supplementing them with another critical piece of data yours don’t account for.

Still looking for some additional pertinent data.

I’ll give you a hint on the preliminary results.  Fowler is the superior pass rusher by far over Floyd and is two years younger.
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Awesome, I appreciate that approach ...he may very well be, I'm not a Floyd believer either.

 
-X- said:
If they are willing to keep Zach Miller around, what makes you think they’ll give up on Long?
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Because his contract is high, there's not much dead money next year, he's been hurt half the time, and they will be close to the cap. Doubt they extend Amos either. 

 
Ok, anyway, back to Fowler vs. Floyd.  The amount of games played is deceiving, because that site didn’t list the number of snaps played.

Floyd:

2016 - 538 (50.1%)

2017 - 582 (58.2%)

2018 - 269 (44.8%)

Total snaps - 1389

Here are his number of snaps per positive play:

1389/11.5= 120.78 snaps/sack

1389/6 = 231.5 snaps/PD

1389/1 = 1389 snaps/FF

1389/3 = 464 snaps/FR

1389/1 = 1389 snaps/TD

1389/61 = 22.77 snaps/solo tackle

1389/23 = 60.39 snaps/assisted tackle

1389/15 = 92.6 snaps/tackle for loss

1389/22 = 63.14 snaps/QB hit

1389/2 = 694.5 snaps/safety

Fowler:

2016 - 569 (52.9%)

2017 - 466 (29.1%)

2018 - 143 (23.8%)

Total snaps - 1178

# of snaps/positive play (Floyd’s are in parentheses for a direct comparison):

1178/14 = 85.14 (120.78) snaps/sack

1178/5 = 235.6 (231.5) snaps/PD

1178/3 = 392.67 (1389) snaps/FF

1178/4 = 294.5 (464) snaps/FR

1178/1 = 1178 (1389) snaps/TD

1178/48 = 24.54 (22.77) snaps/solo tackle

1178/13 = 90.62 (60.39) snaps/assisted tackle

1178/15 = 78.53 (92.6) snaps/tackle for loss

1178/22 = 53.55 (63.14) snaps/QB hit

1178/0 = (null) snaps/safety

I couldn’t find the snap counts for the 3 playoff games Fowler played in (2 more sacks) at the end of last season.

It’s pretty clear that Fowler was more of a situational rush specialist for JAX with declining usage over time, while Floyd is part of the base defense and on the field a lot more often.

Sometimes you have to dig into the numbers a little deeper.

Anyway, moot point now, I was just curious.  Would’ve been nice to have Fowler push Floyd a bit.  Now we just wait until Floyd gets injured again.

 
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I'd much prefer Floyd over Fowler. Also, Fowler is in the final year of his rookie contract and we couldn't afford him, needless to say we'll need every draft pick we have left. After what they gave up for Mack and already having a first round pick with Floyd, there was just no way they were trading for another guy. It's already a top defense. No reason to add even more when you're short on cap space and future draft picks. 

 
Coming from someone that has been down on Floyd repeatedly here, that’s surprising.  I haven’t really been too critical of him this year (until today), but he really has sucked.

 
-X- said:
Coming from someone that has been down on Floyd repeatedly here, that’s surprising.  I haven’t really been too critical of him this year (until today), but he really has sucked.
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I'm not saying he's done well, but he's the best we've got and still affordable in a rookie contract.  Even if he does flip the switch and all of a sudden figure it out, I'm not sure they could afford to extend him next year. A very poor ROI on a first round pick. 

 
On Fowler, he's been on one of the best D's in the league in the last couple of years and hasn't been able to use his athleticism to make an impact.  Just doesn't look like he's a great football player, and I don't think the Bears have enough picks to take the chance that he can come back, especially when it's pretty much a 1 or 2 year rental.

On Long, I don't know much about this injury, haven't really heard the news besides the fact he's probably gone for the year, but I don't think i'd want to cut him.  Next year I'm really hoping we can compete in the playoffs (may make it this year, but don't think we have a huge shot to really make an impact), and I don't think we can get a more talented guard then Long for any less money, so I'd rather try and keep him and hope he makes it through the year.  On top of being a good player when he's on the field, I think he's also the emotional leader on that offense.  Just think it would be a bad idea to get rid of him, unless this injury looks like something he doesn't come back from.  On top of that, we save more money by cutting Simms, and he's worthless even if he is on the field.

 
Found this site yesterday while researching offensive formations.  There are a bunch of deep analysis articles on the Bears’ offense and defense around the recent bye.  Not going to link them all, so go find them:

https://dabearsblog.com

 
Mack on the plane to Buffalo.  He’s excited to possibly play in front of friends there since he went to school in Buffalo.

Not a Bears fan just a Bears DST owner but if they let this guy do the “playing limited” thing again this week the coaching staff are idiots.

That defense is special when he’s on the field at 100% and mediocre when he’s not.  They need him to be at 100% with their matchups after this week.

I don’t see how the coaching staff let’s Mack prolong this injury against the NFLs worst offense and QB just because he likes playing in Buffalo.  Manage your players Nagy.

 
Bears defense is far from mediocre without Mack. This being against Buffalo and Peterman, I'd rest Mack another week, though. 

 
flapgreen said:
Bears defense is far from mediocre without Mack. This being against Buffalo and Peterman, I'd rest Mack another week, though. 
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True I was thinking more fantasy but from a real football perspective they are a good not great defense without Mack healthy, but they do have a glaring weakness in their pass rush though. 

More than giving them a pass rush though Mack just transforms the whole defense.  You can show it with stats:  They got 4 more sacks per game prior to Mack’s injury, now they average half a sack a game, 2 interceptions per game now they avg 1, etc... but it’s more of an eye test thing IMO.

With Mack on the edge, healthy, this looked like a truly scary defense.  The kind of defense that will win you a lot of games.  Not 85 Bears 2000 Ravens dominant but nothing like any other defense in the league now that the Jags have started to fall off.

I just have a sneaking suspicion they let Mack convince them he should go tomorrow and I think that would be a big mistake given the D they could have if the coaches do their jobs right and wait until the guy can play like he did weeks 1-4.

 
Mack wants to play because he went to college there.  Let him play the first series and then just as a situational rusher.  If he looks like he can’t move well, pull him out.

Long to IR.  He can return the day before week 17 at MIN.  Not sure how long they have to decide if they will bring him back.   If we do well enough to get a playoff spot, ya gotta bring him back for the playoffs.  He deserves it.  Freak unlucky injury is no reason to give up on him.  Anyone else would’ve been injured on that were they in the same spot.

 
pbandy1 said:
Bilal not traveling with team. If Mack sits, D-line is a little thin but Robertson-Harris and Lynch playing well.
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Lynch has been playing very well. It's a shame they won't be able to bring him back.  He should be getting much more playing time already. 

 
Shefter: Bears’ DE Khalil Mack, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a sprained ankle, is unlikely to play vs. Bills, though Chicago wants to see him pregame before making any final determination, per source.

 
How do Bears homers feel about Trubisky today?

Tempted to play him, but watched firsthand how that Buffalo defense, at home, totally stymied NE.

They should be able to get out of Buffalo with a win playing conservatively, but then again, Nagy may get cute.

 
Why are we going downfield with a 28 point lead?  Run the ball and get this game over with.

 
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Not controlling the ball is how defenders get injured,  Great to see all the turnovers, but get down if you don’t have daylight to run to.  Almost gave it back there.

 
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Stop going backwards, Cohen.  Know the situation.  Get positive yards.  No need to do the backwards trickery to hope you get away.

 
It’s just not smart, as Trub gave the ball away.

More dumb penalties.

Roquan had some horrible missed tackles against McCoy early in the game.

 
D is getting tired now because the offense can’t put a drive together.

 
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