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palmerville

Results of letting FBG choose my lineups everyweek

10 posts in this topic

Setup:

Thought it would be entertaining to write a small script that uses the FBG projections to blindly generate lineups that I would play in cash games.  This is basically extending the interactive value chart functionality that fills in partial lineup to generate the full optimal lineup given each projection.  So take every possible valid lineup combination and score it for each prediction (DD, MT, SB, AV).  Play the highest scoring lineup of each.

Data starts in week 4 as that's when I had the idea.  Deposited $25 in both Yahoo and Fanduel.

Ending up playing in over 400 contests, hope the results are interesting.

Rules:

  1. Only play 50/50 and Double-up cash games
  2. Only play main slate games
  3. Wager 75% of bankroll every week
  4. Enter contents ranging from $1 - $50 
  5. Play 4 lineups (DD, MT, SB, AV) in each site.  Multiple contests per lineup.
  6. Equally divide wager across the 4 lineups
  7. Set lineups at 11:15 (Central)

Results:

Fanduel:

Contests 226
Wins 155
Losses 71

Avg AV Score 133.69
Avg DD Score 129.85
Avg MT Score 124.37
Avg SB Score 119.51

Avg Win 137.18
Avg Loss 103.02
Min Win 96.94
Max Loss 129.78

  AV DD MT SB
Wins 49 42 30 34
Losses 18 13 22 18
% 73% 76% 58% 65%

 

Starting bankroll: $25.00

Ending bankroll: $245.45

Yahoo:

Contests 179
Wins 111
Losses 68

Avg AV Score 118.44
Avg DD Score 122.48
Avg MT Score 126.12
Avg SB Score 118.18

Avg Win 130.16
Avg Loss 101.86
Min Win 101.94
Max Loss 131.52

  AV DD MT SB
Wins 24 27 33 27
Losses 26 16 9 16
% 48% 63% 79% 63%

Starting bankroll: $25.00

Ending bankroll: $64.28

Conclusion:

Bankroll was subject to wild swings as it would go for a few weeks winning 100% and then followed by just as many weeks where it would win 0%.  Also not every prediction (DD, MT, SB, AV) preformed as well as the others.  For Fanduel, AV and DD were clear winners with SB lagging.

Full weekly lineup results:

  Fanduel       Yahoo      
  AV DD MT SB AV DD MT SB
4 126.70 108.10 122.34 138.02 144.20 149.20 134.44 134.44
5 130.24 131.64 132.94 106.14 124.20 153.00 111.80 112.38
6 122.08 129.78 102.88 113.48 134.58 138.74 121.38 129.28
7 150.28 143.02 137.48 138.48 135.32 131.52 131.82 129.94
8 122.38 122.12 109.90 78.48 97.38 108.18 114.18 69.78
9 154.48 104.14 166.48 141.71 132.88 132.88 167.98 131.28
10 156.84 160.84 136.52 139.82 108.04 124.24 143.74 106.24
11 110.58 139.58 85.48 115.08 117.24 117.78 139.90 168.28
12 119.64 96.94 89.24 106.14 88.14 101.94 102.82 111.84
13 156.96 146.26 151.96 144.98 133.46 132.06 133.06 122.62
14 151.34 154.24 113.32 127.24 110.64 99.94 76.54 108.34
15 100.34 94.46 114.84 84.58 91.18 86.80 106.98 100.04
16 147.46 152.52 155.42 140.38 124.82 135.72 139.92 128.82
17 122.40 134.20 122.40 98.62 116.10 102.70 141.10 101.18
                 
  133.69 129.85 124.37 119.51 118.44 122.48 126.12 118.18

 

 

 

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Nice work and got back about 6x your investment.

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Posted (edited)

Nice, but seems like a lot of work each week to come up with the ultimate lineup based on projections.  Why can't FBG just do that work for you and spit out a lineup,(or 3 or 4).   But then, I guess those lineups would be too heavily used.

Edited by AquaBliss

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Nice job.  I'm a nerd software developer so I'd like to know more about the script/process you used to generate the ideal lineups.  Did you use javascript to extend the existing IVC functionality, or did you import the data into something else (Excel, database, etc.) and then use some other software to determine the lineups?

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38 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Nice job.  I'm a nerd software developer so I'd like to know more about the script/process you used to generate the ideal lineups.  Did you use javascript to extend the existing IVC functionality, or did you import the data into something else (Excel, database, etc.) and then use some other software to determine the lineups?

Process is basically:

  1. Download IVC pages (Fanduel and Yahoo)
  2. Python to parse pages and load all players into sqlite db.  (overkill but wanted to play with sqlite and had an initial thought to load all generated lineup into the db to play with results, but that wasn't needed nor where they interesting)
  3. Update settings to exclude players in certain games (Only played main slate of games)
  4. Python script builds and calculates every possible lineup, first testing to fit under salary cap and then for total points*
  5. Spits out the top lineup for each projection (DD, MT, SB, AV)

*Doesn't really do all lineups as that would take hours, it first pre-processes the players to remove those that wouldn't get selected anyway.  Example:

Name Pos Game Salary MT
Aaron Rodgers QB GB@DET 8800 22.7
Drew Brees QB NO@ATL 8200 20.8
Russell Wilson QB SEA@SF 7600 20.5
Matt Ryan QB NO@ATL 8700 19.8

We can discard Matt Ryan as he would never be in a top lineup.  His salary is higher and points lower than Russell Wilson.  It gets a little more involved for RB/WR as you are selecting for multiple position slots.

 

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Great job.  Did you do any other analysis reviewing the weeks or season?

Week 14 was one time of a few this year on FD where the GPP cut lines were lower than the cash contests cut lines.  So the chalk went nuts, as did DD and AV scores above.  MT and SB were crushed that week.  Did you notice the optimal DD lineup more consistently pulled in chalk plays?  Did the others seem to reach more?  

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On 1/3/2017 at 11:08 AM, Peyton Marino said:

@palmerville I'm in the process of learning Python.  any interest in sharing your script?

bump for @palmerville.  totally understand if you don't want to share your work. thought it was worth a shot though.

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I experimented on a smaller scare during the middle weeks of this past season.  Based on my own selection process, I determined my preferred:

  • 3 QBs
  • 6 RBs
  • 9 WRs
  • 3 TEs
  • 3 Def
  • 3 PK

and used Excel to generate all possible lineups on Fanduel, and their corresponding fbg projections.  I then cherry picked 9 that I liked the most and played each lineup in both a 50-50 and 1/4K Sun NFL Mini Tourney at only $1 entry levels.  One of my criteria, for example, was trying to spread out my exposure to any one player.  I didn't want each lineup to have David Johnson, no matter how much of a roll he was on.  I did this for 4 or 5 weeks, and came out ahead.   So not a big $ investment or return, but an interesting exercise, and I did not experience the wild swings of the original author.  Some of my steps took too much time to repeat each week, so I could only do it certain weeks.  I plan to hone the process in the off-season, so I can try it in earnest in 2017 on a more consistent/regular basis.

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