AquaBliss

Fanduel Wild Card Weekend

56 posts in this topic

Seems like a lot of you are calling it quits after Week 17 but I think this is where it gets fun.  True, less lineup variation but it's hard to watch the playoffs without some "Skin in the Game".

It's tough to put together a decent lineup if you spend top dollar on Le'Veon + AB, so better to pick one of them and save some $ for remaining positions.

For GPP's you're probably gonna need to take some outliers and hope they hit, otherwise you'll find 10 other players with the same team in the big tournaments.

 

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I'm with you.  I like these two four game slates we have coming up.  I have to start digging in tomorrow and Thursday because we do a local draft Friday night (and I get a little blitzed).  Not sure how I'll distribute my contests yet.

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5 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

Seems like a lot of you are calling it quits after Week 17 but I think this is where it gets fun.  True, less lineup variation but it's hard to watch the playoffs without some "Skin in the Game".

It's tough to put together a decent lineup if you spend top dollar on Le'Veon + AB, so better to pick one of them and save some $ for remaining positions.

For GPP's you're probably gonna need to take some outliers and hope they hit, otherwise you'll find 10 other players with the same team in the big tournaments.

 

Kind of disagree here at least for cash.

Rodgers/Bell/Perkins/Brown/Baldwin/Allison/Tye/Novak/Pitt.

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Lineup looks decent but you had to sacrifice a lot of solid selections to get there.

Perkins = Too risky sharing carries with Jennings and who knows who will be favored at the goal line.  Also don't think NYG will run it 40 times like they did last Sunday.

Allison = Don't think he'll get many looks in the playoffs but AR likes to spread it around, so who knows.

Tye = Got burned by this guy too many times.  Could just as easily put up 2.1 points as 17.4

Take AB out of the equation and you could get a lot chalkier.  Maybe Ben + Bell is the way to go, at least you get 4pts for all ABs TD's.

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Early cash LU for me: QB - Wilson, RB - Bell/Zenner, WR - J.Nelson/Baldwin/Crabtree, TE - Fiedorowicz, K - Novak, DEF -GB.

I was thinking Perkins as well, but, I agree in that they most likely won't run the ball as much. Of course, if something happens to Jennings between now & Saturday, that changes things. Zenner would appear to be the man now for DET and Seattle, good as they are, have been giving up points to the RB position of late. Would have preferred another defense, but, Eli's probably good for a pic or two and perhaps a few sacks. Just didn't have the money to go up further for a better D. 

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For my cash lineup I went all in on the studs and just filled in around them. maybe alot of fish in the pool this week with season long just ending- we shall see.

Manning Bell Jennings Brown OBJ Boldin Cook Novak Det

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The pricing on FD is really soft compared to DK.   Just jam in as many studs as you want to fill in for cash games (which looks like has been said a few times already).

I won't be playing as many cash games will be going more gpp heavy on a small slate like this where you really are completely avoiding 1 game (hou-oak). 

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Prefer to settle on one of these for cash instead of playing them both.  Then do more GPP than a normal weekend.  

Wilson, Bell, Jennings, Brown, ODB, Boldin, Tye, Novak, Pitt

Rodgers, Bell, Zenner, Brown, Crabtree, Stills, Cook, Novak, Hou

I'd have to un-swear off Wilson to run the first LU, ugggggh.  The alternative would be Manning, another thorn in my side player from the past, but then that LU gets too NYG heavy for my taste.

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1 hour ago, Bobcat10 said:

Prefer to settle on one of these for cash instead of playing them both.  Then do more GPP than a normal weekend.  

Wilson, Bell, Jennings, Brown, ODB, Boldin, Tye, Novak, Pitt

Rodgers, Bell, Zenner, Brown, Crabtree, Stills, Cook, Novak, Hou

I'd have to un-swear off Wilson to run the first LU, ugggggh.  The alternative would be Manning, another thorn in my side player from the past, but then that LU gets too NYG heavy for my taste.

Only concern w/ the 1st one isn't Wilson; I would think that Jennings & ODB Jr could be siphoning points off each other. Yeah, GB's defense has left something to be desired of late, but, so has Jenning's rushing totals, and he's gonna be splitting w/ Perkins, whose YPC has been much better - especially over the last month and a half. The projected team total for the Giants is 20 & they haven't scored over 20 since Thanksgiving weekend.

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1 hour ago, freeannyong said:

The pricing on FD is really soft compared to DK.   Just jam in as many studs as you want to fill in for cash games (which looks like has been said a few times already).

I won't be playing as many cash games will be going more gpp heavy on a small slate like this where you really are completely avoiding 1 game (hou-oak). 

Wouldn't the gpp strategy be to play the hou oak game that most are avoiding and hope for a miracle?

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1 minute ago, Raging weasel said:

Wouldn't the gpp strategy be to play the hou oak game that most are avoiding and hope for a miracle?

Exactly what I was thinking - a Miller/HOU defense stack could be very appealing.

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28 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Wouldn't the gpp strategy be to play the hou oak game that most are avoiding and hope for a miracle?

You are right, then you look at the players involved and throw up in your mouth a little bit.  ;)

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Another ballsy way to do a gpp is fade the Pitts players that everybody will be on.  Of course it's risky, but I am assuming Ben/Brown and even all three with Bell will be hugely popular. 

 

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Another ballsy way to do a gpp is fade the Pitts players that everybody will be on.  Of course it's risky, but I am assuming Ben/Brown and even all three with Bell will be hugely popular. 

 

That's what I have going-

Wilson  Ajayi  Miller  ODB Adams Stills Graham Crosby Giants.

I think this will be the week ODB finally gets a flag free trip to the endzone on a punt return.

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49 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

That's what I have going-

Wilson  Ajayi  Miller  ODB Adams Stills Graham Crosby Giants.

I think this will be the week ODB finally gets a flag free trip to the endzone on a punt return.

Agree with you, ODB returns one and finds the endzone. It's a good contrarian linkeup. Wondering if any TE  besides Graham will be a good play this weekend. Perhaps CJ?

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My Steeler-free GPP .......... Rodgers, Ajayi/Zenner, Nelson/Adams/J. Landry, Ebron, Novak, HOU.

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On 1/4/2017 at 2:38 PM, reel_smooth said:

Exactly what I was thinking - a Miller/HOU defense stack could be very appealing.

This was my first thought looking at the RBs.  Only other considerations for RB in my opinion are Bell (but 10k), Zenner (but @ Seattle) and Ajayi (more expensive than Miller).  I'm hoping multiple Cook TOs and Houston keeping the ball out of the hands of Brock leads to a heavy workload.

My LU so far:

Wilson - seems to be the best value at QB

Bell / Miller - for reasons above, Bell should be worth the cost and other than Brown and ODB are the only studs available.

Adams / Baldwin / Tate -- I like Adams for his price more than Jordy (1.5K less).  Baldwin is a somewhat risky stack with Wilson, but I like his price.  For WR3, I'm thinking Tate over Crabtree.  I figure the Cook factor is worse than Tate having to deal with Seattle DBs.  I'm thinking Sherman covers outside WRs and perhaps Jones while Tate gets moved around potentially to the slot and picks up a lot of short passes.  Stafford >>> Cook.  But would love to hear other opinions here.

CJ / Kicker / Houston -- Would like to have Graham but there's no cash.  Houston seems like the chalk Def.

 

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1 hour ago, karmarooster said:

This was my first thought looking at the RBs.  Only other considerations for RB in my opinion are Bell (but 10k), Zenner (but @ Seattle) and Ajayi (more expensive than Miller).  I'm hoping multiple Cook TOs and Houston keeping the ball out of the hands of Brock leads to a heavy workload.

My LU so far:

Wilson - seems to be the best value at QB

Bell / Miller - for reasons above, Bell should be worth the cost and other than Brown and ODB are the only studs available.

Adams / Baldwin / Tate -- I like Adams for his price more than Jordy (1.5K less).  Baldwin is a somewhat risky stack with Wilson, but I like his price.  For WR3, I'm thinking Tate over Crabtree.  I figure the Cook factor is worse than Tate having to deal with Seattle DBs.  I'm thinking Sherman covers outside WRs and perhaps Jones while Tate gets moved around potentially to the slot and picks up a lot of short passes.  Stafford >>> Cook.  But would love to hear other opinions here.

CJ / Kicker / Houston -- Would like to have Graham but there's no cash.  Houston seems like the chalk Def.

 

Lions homer here and I would trust Crabtree or even Boldin over Tate. If Det can get to the redzone they rarely look Tates way so you'd have to rely on volume or high YAC.

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So here's my lineup thus far:

Russell Wilson.  Best value, as far as I can tell, with similar upside to Big Ben and Rodgers.

Le'Veon & Miller.  The chalk choice.  I can see taking Zenner, but other than that most of the options aren't that trustworthy.

Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, and Sterling Shephard.   I could sub in Beckham for Brown, but, well, Brown is Brown.  I couldn't figure out a way to afford Beckham and Brown other than to really sacrifice WR3 or RB2, which I'd prefer not to do.  I like Baldwin in this matchup.  He's going to be their main receiver, I suspect, and could put up big numbers.  The other option here is Davante Adams, who could be good with Jordy getting blanketed by Jenkins.  I grabbed Sterling Shepard because I wanted a piece of the NYG passing offense against the Pack -- could see them blowing up.  

Tye/ Novack/Raiders.  I couldn't afford Houston with this lineup, and obviously my TE ain't good.  But didn't think the jump from Tye to CJ was worth the downgrade at other positions.  The Raiders could fare well -- Houston allowed the 4th most points to fantasy defenses on the year.  

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PITT/MIA has highest over under and biggest shootout potential.  Someone on MIA  will have to score besides Ajay.  Landry/Parker/Stills should all get a fair amount of looks but seem mostly forgotten in the lineups above. 

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1 hour ago, AquaBliss said:

PITT/MIA has highest over under and biggesshootout potential.  Someone.  on MIA  will have to score besides Ajay.  Landry/Parker/Stills should all get a fair amount of looks but seem mostly forgotten in the lineups above. 

But the spread isn't close, so it doesn't seem to look like a shootout  

It is a higher o/u, but isn't Miami's total sub-20pts?  On top of that, Pitt D has been playing prety damn well over the last 1/3 of the season.  Miami will probably have to play catchup, but that doesn't always mean decent production.  

I think the GB/NYG has more of a chance to be a back and forth game, assuming Eli shows up Sunday.  

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2 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

PITT/MIA has highest over under and biggest shootout potential.  Someone on MIA  will have to score besides Ajay.  Landry/Parker/Stills should all get a fair amount of looks but seem mostly forgotten in the lineups above. 

Who do you pick?  And who do you sub out?  Not sure I love those guys, at their price, over the set that I'm trotting out.  

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3 hours ago, Thimblerig said:

Who do you pick?  And who do you sub out?  Not sure I love those guys, at their price, over the set that I'm trotting out.  

Landry if you can fit him in:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins

Of course as always, WR1 draws best CB coverage but he can still get open.

At Landrys price I like him more than Cooper or D Adams... We'll know soon enough.

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I am not familiar with these short slates, but looking over things, even in gpps is it just a horrible idea to fade Bell based on who else is on the slate? 

 

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Early look LUs

Thinking of using these for both cash and GPP with the limited slate

Wilson/Bell/Zenner/AB/Baldwin/Stills/CJF/Hauschka/Houst

Ben/Bell/LMiller/SShepard/JNelson/Crabb/CJF/Gould/Pitt

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am not familiar with these short slates, but looking over things, even in gpps is it just a horrible idea to fade Bell based on who else is on the slate? 

 

Probably but I'm doing it for 1 lineup anyway in a SE gpp for a buck. Only playing half my usual NFL action this week which led me to dabble in NBA action instead.

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3 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Probably but I'm doing it for 1 lineup anyway in a SE gpp for a buck. Only playing half my usual NFL action this week which led me to dabble in NBA action instead.

I think that turned out just fine for you!

I think I might be with you.  If I do 4-5 $1 gpp entries maybe one might be without Bell (but probably still have Ben or Brown in it).  Not sure I can fade that game completely, but we will see.  If I do it might just be for a Seattle/Detroit game stack LU. 

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On 1/4/2017 at 1:04 PM, Bobcat10 said:

I'd have to un-swear off Wilson to run the first LU, ugggggh.  

Ha Ha.  When the podcasts, articles, and IVC kept coming up Russell this week, I immediately thought of you Bobcat10, my fellow member of the "Never Again, Wilson" (NAW) club.

Can I really go back there again?  I would fade Wilson in a heartbeat if I had any faith that the Lions pass rush could exploit his shaky o-line.  I don't.

OTOH, I'm warming up to paying down at QB with Moore, but why take that chance, when Wilson is only $800 more than Moore?  :confused: 

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Wilson feels like the value play, such as it is; with a slate as thin as this one, I'd rather not go beyond him or Eli for my starter.  Big Ben, in my view, seems like the guy most likely to go off, but Wilson has similar upside for a better price.  

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2 hours ago, Church of Iggy Pop said:

Ha Ha.  When the podcasts, articles, and IVC kept coming up Russell this week, I immediately thought of you Bobcat10, my fellow member of the "Never Again, Wilson" (NAW) club.

Can I really go back there again?  I would fade Wilson in a heartbeat if I had any faith that the Lions pass rush could exploit his shaky o-line.  I don't.

OTOH, I'm warming up to paying down at QB with Moore, but why take that chance, when Wilson is only $800 more than Moore?  :confused: 

I'm back in...running a Wilson cash LU and a Rodgers cash LU.  $15 each.  Then $20 more on random GPPs.  Seems about right to play fitty bones this weekend.  I'm really itching to just keep putting more in though.

Wilson, Bell, Miller, ODB, Rogers, Adams, Tye, Boswell, HOU

Rodgers, Bell, Zenner, Brown, Landry, Shepard, Cook, Novak, GB

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I really liked the J.Lee and D.Hindery articles this week, some really interesting info on %s and players to target for gpps on the small slate.  Made me really think about some of the LUs I was writing down. 

Not doing much, just 5 $1 gpps.  Still working on the last one, but have one each with Eli, Wilson, Rodgers, and Ben right now.  Deciding if I should go with a cheap QB LU or a variation of one I currently have. 

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This Giants triple-stack GPP sure makes me queasy.  That's the goal, right?  

Manning -- Bell/ D.Washington (OAK) -- Brown/Beckham/Shepard -- CJF -- Boswell -- Steelers

Punted at RB2 to jam in stud WRs.

I switched out Wilson/Boldin for Manning/Shepard at the last minute, because I felt I was underweight Shepard and overweight on Boldin in my other LUs.

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2 hours ago, Church of Iggy Pop said:

This Giants triple-stack GPP sure makes me queasy.  That's the goal, right?  

Manning -- Bell/ D.Washington (OAK) -- Brown/Beckham/Shepard -- CJF -- Boswell -- Steelers

Punted at RB2 to jam in stud WRs.

I switched out Wilson/Boldin for Manning/Shepard at the last minute, because I felt I was underweight Shepard and overweight on Boldin in my other LUs.

Had a similar idea, unfortunately one of my "punts" to differentiate my LU in a couple entries was Sea Bass, and that doesn't look like it will end well for me.  Here is what my Giants triple stack looks like:

Eli - L.Miller/Collins - OBJ/Nelson/Shepard - Graham - Jano - Seattle

Also combined  Wilson with the Pitts players of course with the same K:

Wilson - Bell/Perkins - Brown/Parker/Boldin - Graham - Jano - NYG

 

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Glad I faded all the raiders players -also using Miller/Hopkins in my Bell-less gpp so far so good.

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####### Rawls.  Dude has been total garbage for weeks, and then 100yds in the first half...

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45 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

####### Rawls.  Dude has been total garbage for weeks, and then 100yds in the first half...

Yeah, I pulled him for Perkins

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Usually play one talent lineup in a gpp...Rawls, Hopkins lineup has potential.

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:lol:

Evidently I dipped my toe too much into the the Saturday games.  It's sad when you look at your LUs and only think that maybe 2 out of 9 have a shot at $ after 1/2 the games are done. 

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Winners of Saturday only GPP's all had Rawls and Richardson (and of course Baldwin)... But who would have thunk.

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